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Post by spambox on Nov 27, 2015 17:03:25 GMT
The share price on the open market is consistently trading above the $8.50 tender price. Anyone tendering their shares now would have to be a complete fool, when they can sell on the open market for higher (or hold for an expected raised offer). Anyone advising shareholders to tender their shares to Astellus almost certainly has an ulterior motive.
The market trading above tender price indicates accumulation in expectation of a higher offer. This will force Astellus to up their offer or pull out since it will be increasingly hard to accumulate their >50% majority to close the deal.
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Post by jckrdu on Nov 27, 2015 17:31:59 GMT
The share price on the open market is consistently trading above the $8.50 tender price. Anyone tendering their shares now would have to be a complete fool, when they can sell on the open market for higher (or hold for an expected raised offer). Anyone advising shareholders to tender their shares to Astellus almost certainly has an ulterior motive. The market trading above tender price indicates accumulation in expectation of a higher offer. This will force Astellus to up their offer or pull out since it will be increasingly hard to accumulate their >50% majority to close the deal. A couple of thoughts in response to the bolded...
There may be some large institutional holders that want to sell their shares and will agree to the $8.50 tender, because they may not be able to sell them all on the open market at $8.50 without tanking the pps.
Anyone tendering their shares now is not a "complete fool" IMO. People tendering their shares now are taking the following risks off the table:
1) What if Astellas does NOT get 51% agreement to the tender AND Astellas does NOT agree to increase their offer AND no other bidders surface? PPs would immediately tank back to the low $4s in that scenario.
2) What if Astellas announces that they did NOT get 51% to accept the $8.50 tender, and does NOT immediately announce a higher offer? No one knows how the sequence of events will play out. Astellas may announce they didn't get the 51% agreement and then make a statement that they are reviewing their next steps. If an immediate higher offer does not come from Astellas, the market could very well sell OCAT off until the certainty of a higher offer is announced sometime later down the road.
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Post by i(n) sight on Nov 27, 2015 18:10:13 GMT
The share price on the open market is consistently trading above the $8.50 tender price. Anyone tendering their shares now would have to be a complete fool, when they can sell on the open market for higher (or hold for an expected raised offer). Anyone advising shareholders to tender their shares to Astellus almost certainly has an ulterior motive. The market trading above tender price indicates accumulation in expectation of a higher offer. This will force Astellus to up their offer or pull out since it will be increasingly hard to accumulate their >50% majority to close the deal. A couple of thoughts in response to the bolded...
There may be some large institutional holders that want to sell their shares and will agree to the $8.50 tender, because they may not be able to sell them all on the open market at $8.50 without tanking the pps.
Anyone tendering their shares now is not a "complete fool" IMO. People tendering their shares now are taking the following risks off the table:
1) What if Astellas does NOT get 51% agreement to the tender AND Astellas does NOT agree to increase their offer AND no other bidders surface? PPs would immediately tank back to the low $4s in that scenario.
2) What if Astellas announces that they did NOT get 51% to accept the $8.50 tender, and does NOT immediately announce a higher offer? No one knows how the sequence of events will play out. Astellas may announce they didn't get the 51% agreement and then make a statement that they are reviewing their next steps. If an immediate higher offer does not come from Astellas, the market could very well sell OCAT off until the certainty of a higher offer is announced sometime later down the road.
You are correct jck in that there are risks to holding. When thinking of the "average" retailer, the post by spambox is more applicable. Why tender my shares today when I can sell higher relative to retail? A possible greater risk is that given the substantial amount of institutional shares, that they will tender as they wait and see for a bit longer while maybe selling piecemeal here and there in the interim (still not without risk). They've likely doubled the value of their holdings in a short period of time and are sitting pretty On the obverse, who is buying daily? Retail mostly or institutional or 50/50. and why buy above the tender offer? IMO given the STAP disaster and other stem cell fiascos, the Japanese culture of saving face, the Japanese government backing to RM, I simply don't see this as Astellas looking to get in on the cheap with a "so what, we'll just walk away" attitude. I think they want this badly. That reduces risk IMO, but nothing is certain. PW is ruthless, in the end, let's see if it's towards retail or a big FU to political headwinds in this country and sh*t or get off the pot time. In any event he'll walk away very well cared for I would imagine.
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Post by spambox on Nov 27, 2015 22:53:39 GMT
My comment was primarily a response to individuals insisting we should tender our shares.
I(n)Sight interpreted me correctly - I was talking in terms of retail shareholders disposing of shares, and my point was, why would anyone [retail shareholder] tender for $8.50 when you can sell on the open market at $8.60? That would indeed be foolish. By the same reasoning, an individual advising others to tender rather than sell would also seem extremely foolish.. or driven by ulterior motive, even if it's just that misery loves company.
Additionally, by tendering rather than selling on the open market for higher, you would be contributing to Astellus achieving their goal without having to raise their offer.. an option that benefits only Astellus.
Holding your shares and not selling OR tendering is a different matter. Yes, there is some risk that Astellus withdraws and you end up back where we were before this bomb was dropped on us... and maybe that's not such a bad thing imho. However, with the market consistently trading above tender price, and based on history, all indications are that Astellus will up their bid, along with the possibility of another entity placing a higher offer. Astellus have made it very clear they want this technology, and there really isn't much arguing they aren't getting an amazing deal as it stands.
As I(n)Sight said, who is buying above tender price? Given the volume, there is clearly a great deal of confidence that Astellus will go higher, or another party will step in with a higher offer. Remember, Astellus cannot buy on the open market during this period, so they can only get what is tendered, and again, it is nonsensical to tender for $8.50 instead of sell for $8.60+ to the market.
I am thinking Astellus must have anticipated this, and are likely prepared to offer more. Whether it will be enough is another matter...
If another party steps in with a higher offer, then those who sold or tendered now are really going to be kicking themselves.
Sure there is risk, but there always has been with this stock. At least right now it is a bit more tangible.
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