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Post by tradeup on Jul 21, 2014 17:31:37 GMT
Catalysts / potential catalysts for 2H 2014:
- Phase I/IIa peer-review published paper (final patient data expected around August per Lebovits). - Reverse split and uplist (R/S proxy vote Aug 14th). - Initiation of the Brazil trial. In partnering discussions to secure non-dilutive funding. - New IND(s) based on pre-clinical work for Parkinson's and MS (expected 2H 2014). - Phase II interim data.
My expectation is that published results alone translate to a new 52-week high.
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Post by actcfan on Jul 21, 2014 18:27:51 GMT
I hope you are correct. I am up around 75% but have not taken any off the table yet as I am expecting more catalysts.
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Post by tradeup on Jul 21, 2014 23:26:38 GMT
Nice job, AF.
I've been in and out capturing every move up starting at ~$0.14. Started with a small position due to liquidity concerns and with each successive trade added more funds. I think it's still undervalued and largely under the radar. This is a company that could really benefit from an up list.
Should add that Phase II interim data is more likely slated for 1H 2015, but we may get some generalized updates. Not necessarily a "catalyst" this year.
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Post by tradeup on Jul 22, 2014 0:46:39 GMT
I'm also expecting another capital raise later this year. Perhaps to coincide with up-list.
Unless they partner out other indications they will need additional funds to IND Parkinson's and/or MS.
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Post by JHam on Jul 22, 2014 1:33:34 GMT
Thanks for posting this tradeup. I want to clarify one thing that was brought up in another thread about published data in August. When I listened to the call in real time I was scribbling notes down as fast as I could so I need to go back and double check that part. I am sure he mentioned having data published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, now I am not 100% confident that he said it would be published by August. He may have said the data will be available by August and then they will look to get it published. I am also not sure if he is referring to Phase I data or Phase I/Phase IIa data. It wouldn't make much sense to publish Phase I data without Phase IIa if they will have it available by August. Here is what the 10Q says:
In January 2013, the Israeli MoH approved a Phase IIa combined (intramuscular and intrathecal) treatment, dose-escalating trial, which we are currently conducting at HUMC. According to the protocol for this safety and preliminary efficacy trial, 12 early-stage ALS patients received both intramuscular and intrathecal injections of NurOwn cells in three cohorts with increasing doses between February and August 2013. The patients were followed for six months after transplantation. Due to medical and technical considerations, two additional patients were enrolled in the trial in late 2013, in order to preserve the originally planned protocol design. These two patients were treated at the beginning of the second quarter of 2014. The complete and final statistical analysis of the Phase IIa data is expected to be available after 6 months of follow up with the patients.
Phase I final data should already be good to go.
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Post by JHam on Jul 22, 2014 1:51:27 GMT
So while the reverse split/up-list may not happen right away, I do think it will happen this year and in conjunction with some of the other items you've listed. Waiting until they have Phase II interim data to up-list would not be wise in my opinion. As that is around the time you want to start looking for partnerships, not worrying about getting on a national exchange and attracting institutional investors.
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Post by JHam on Jul 22, 2014 1:54:08 GMT
I hope you are correct. I am up around 75% but have not taken any off the table yet as I am expecting more catalysts. Wow nice job actcfan. I haven't taken any off the table yet either. And likely won't now until some of these other items occur/move the pps up some more. I am comfortable holding this one through some volatility as well.
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Post by JHam on Jul 22, 2014 7:42:06 GMT
How do any of you feel about the notion that r/sing and up-listing now would crush the value of the company (pps) and totally wash out current shareholders?
That is the feeling of some on Yahoo. They think that published positive data is not enough to keep shorts from applying major downward pressure on a newly listed stock.
I hear this same argument every time a stock makes it known they want to up-list from the OTC.
My feeling is like what I said above. I don't think it is smart to wait until they are well in to Phase II or between Phase II/III to up-list, as imo that is the time to start getting serious about partnering. Might as well do it now and get it over with so that they have gone through those early "growing pains" and have settled in on the new exchange. Rather than having to worry about r/sing and up-listing and partnering at the same time later on. I also don't see such a doom and gloom scenario as I believe Fiorino is smart enough to have investors lined up and ready to go. Maybe wishful thinking in my part.
Sure there will be added pressure and much more (much needed in my opinion) liquidity of the stock. Likely some volatility as well after it happens, but like I said I'd rather get it out if the way now.
Thoughts?
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Post by tradeup on Jul 22, 2014 12:57:43 GMT
Thanks for posting this tradeup. I want to clarify one thing that was brought up in another thread about published data in August. When I listened to the call in real time I was scribbling notes down as fast as I could so I need to go back and double check that part. I am sure he mentioned having data published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, now I am not 100% confident that he said it would be published by August. He may have said the data will be available by August and then they will look to get it published. I am also not sure if he is referring to Phase I data or Phase I/Phase IIa data. It wouldn't make much sense to publish Phase I data without Phase IIa if they will have it available by August. Here is what the 10Q says: In January 2013, the Israeli MoH approved a Phase IIa combined (intramuscular and intrathecal) treatment, dose-escalating trial, which we are currently conducting at HUMC. According to the protocol for this safety and preliminary efficacy trial, 12 early-stage ALS patients received both intramuscular and intrathecal injections of NurOwn cells in three cohorts with increasing doses between February and August 2013. The patients were followed for six months after transplantation. Due to medical and technical considerations, two additional patients were enrolled in the trial in late 2013, in order to preserve the originally planned protocol design. These two patients were treated at the beginning of the second quarter of 2014. The complete and final statistical analysis of the Phase IIa data is expected to be available after 6 months of follow up with the patients.Phase I final data should already be good to go. Thanks for the clarification, JHam. I went ahead and edited my original post. So perhaps 3-6 months post-August is the earliest to expect published results?
As for the comments you mentioned on the Yahoo! MB regarding the R/S "washing out current shareholders," I give that a low probability. The latest recent financing was fairly shareholder friendly. If they intend to R/S and uplist this year, I believe they will likely do so on the back of good news to absorb the typical friction that occurs.
Yellen's comments aside, the basis for me owning this stock is the belief that it remains largely undervalued and under appreciated by the market. More exposure should help this company not hurt it. With that said, future dilutive events are inevitable so I will be looking for opportunities to take profits and re-position all along the way.
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Post by JHam on Jul 22, 2014 19:24:47 GMT
DEF 14A just filed: www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137883/000114420414044070/v384044_def14a.htmOf note: "Reasons for the Proposed Reverse Split The primary reason for the proposed reverse split is to increase the per share market price of the Common Stock to enhance our ability to meet the initial listing requirements of a national stock exchange (which may include the Nasdaq Capital Market or another Nasdaq exchange, an NYSE exchange or other stock exchange) or to make our Common Stock more attractive to a broader range of institutional and other investors. In recent years, including currently, the closing bid price for the Company’s Common Stock has remained below $1.00 per share for extended periods. The Nasdaq Capital Market requires, among other things, a minimum bid price per share of $3.00 for the initial listing of the Company’s Common Stock and following initial listing, and maintenance of a continued price of at least $1.00 per share. 10 The Board feels that the Company is at the threshold for listing on a national stock market, provided we can achieve and maintain the required minimum per share bid price. The Board recommends that the interest of the stockholders may be best served by a reverse stock split in order to increase the Common Stock bid price. The Company believes that the reverse stock split along with results of growth and operations could be a substantial basis for achieving the stock bid price necessary for a national stock market listing. However, there is no assurance that our stock price will achieve the minimum bid price amount and that our stock price will continue to meet the minimum requirement for continued listing. In order to successfully list on a national securities exchange, the Company will also need to comply with additional quantitative (stockholders’ equity, size of stockholder base, market value of securities, size of the public float, number of market makers, etc.) and qualitative (corporate governance, director independence, Board and Audit Committee composition, etc.) initial listing requirements and to continue meeting such requirements on an ongoing, continuous basis."
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Post by JHam on Jul 22, 2014 19:34:19 GMT
New o/s count too:
"As of July 21, 2014, the Record Date for the Meeting, there were 227,157,289 shares of the Company’s Common Stock issued and outstanding."
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Post by tradeup on Jul 22, 2014 23:40:23 GMT
New o/s count too: "As of July 21, 2014, the Record Date for the Meeting, there were 227,157,289 shares of the Company’s Common Stock issued and outstanding."Not a big increase from June 20th: 224,834,618 shares. And we now know they are targeting Nasdaq Capital Market.
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Post by JHam on Jul 28, 2014 16:24:48 GMT
Full disclosure.
I went ahead and sold 30% of my BCLI today for a 19% realized gain. The r/s and non-reversing of the authorized has investors skittish and I figure it is going to keep trending down for a bit. I still have plenty of shares and think it is a good idea to lessen my load. We'll see how it goes but I may not add again until after the proxy vote/r/s.
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Post by selluwud on Jul 28, 2014 17:01:46 GMT
Full disclosure. I went ahead and sold 30% of my BCLI today for a 19% realized gain. The r/s and non-reversing of the authorized has investors skittish and I figure it is going to keep trending down for a bit. I still have plenty of shares and think it is a good idea to lessen my load. We'll see how it goes but I may not add again until after the proxy vote/r/s. I dumped what little I have last week. A small loss to be gained back buying in at a lower price later, hopefully before any news moves it up.
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Post by JHam on Jul 28, 2014 17:10:57 GMT
Full disclosure. I went ahead and sold 30% of my BCLI today for a 19% realized gain. The r/s and non-reversing of the authorized has investors skittish and I figure it is going to keep trending down for a bit. I still have plenty of shares and think it is a good idea to lessen my load. We'll see how it goes but I may not add again until after the proxy vote/r/s. I dumped what little I have last week. A small loss to be gained back buying in at a lower price later, hopefully before any news moves it up. I am still very big on this company and plan to increase my position again in the future. However, this recent downtrend is due to; a) The pending r/s, and b) the authorized shares not also being split. Even though I am not too concerned with either in the long run, if I feel that selling will continue in the short term, then I might as well get out now and add again later. For the record, I just dumped another chunk of shares bringing leaving me with 50% of my original position.
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Post by dayanand33 on Jul 28, 2014 17:34:47 GMT
I was hoping that they have some good news lined up to absorb the reverse split/ uplist shock
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Post by JHam on Jul 28, 2014 18:13:38 GMT
I was hoping that they have some good news lined up to absorb the reverse split/ uplist shock I actually think they will. For the moment though I think people associate a r/s as a negative event (even though I believe it means progress in the case of BCLI) which will add some downward pressure for the near term. Maybe until the r/s and up-list are executed. The issue of the authorized shares being exempt from the split certainly doesn't help things either. All in all I am looking at this as a chance to sell and add more at a lower price. Still have a nice chunk of shares that I will probably hang onto for the long haul. My portfolio was too BCLI heavy to be honest so, as Bullard would say, I did some "pruning"
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Post by RLC on Jul 30, 2014 17:09:08 GMT
I am still very big on this company and plan to increase my position again in the future. However, this recent downtrend is due to; a) The pending r/s, and b) the authorized shares not also being split. Even though I am not too concerned with either in the long run, if I feel that selling will continue in the short term, then I might as well get out now and add again later. Pretty nice rebound for BCLI today. JHam is it for sure that the company is not going to split the authorized shares as well or is this just not clear at the moment? I remember when ACTC had that scare because Gary (or whoever was in charge of the CFO responsibilities at that time) didn't write it up correctly, but they very shortly corrected it to show that the authorized would be split as well. Are there some examples of companies doing this in the past (not splitting the authorized at the same ratio as the outstanding shares)? It seems like a fairly shady proposition if you ask me.
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Post by JHam on Jul 30, 2014 17:21:51 GMT
I am still very big on this company and plan to increase my position again in the future. However, this recent downtrend is due to; a) The pending r/s, and b) the authorized shares not also being split. Even though I am not too concerned with either in the long run, if I feel that selling will continue in the short term, then I might as well get out now and add again later. Pretty nice rebound for BCLI today. JHam is it for sure that the company is not going to split the authorized shares as well or is this just not clear at the moment? I remember when ACTC had that scare because Gary (or whoever was in charge of the CFO responsibilities at that time) didn't write it up correctly, but they very shortly corrected it to show that the authorized would be split as well. Are there some examples of companies doing this in the past (not splitting the authorized at the same ratio as the outstanding shares)? It seems like a fairly shady proposition if you ask me. I still haven't heard back from the company on this, but until I hear back from them I will assume it is on purpose and that they are planning not split the authorized shares along with the outstanding. I wouldn't say it is shady as I don't think this is actually a total uncommon (although hopefully tradeup or someone will correct me if I am wrong). It is just annoying since they would still have a ton of authorized shares even if they split them 20:1. Lot's of volume today.
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Post by RLC on Jul 30, 2014 17:57:56 GMT
I guess when I say shady, I meant it seems like a sneaky way to increase the A/S without having to do a proxy to "raise the A/S". I have a good feeling lots of novice investors get taken by this strategy if it is indeed one that's widely used.
Using this generic example: O/S: 800,000 A/S: 200,000
After 20:1 R/S
O/S: 40,000 A/S: 200,000
This would royally piss me off as an existing shareholder.
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