Post by biposter on Dec 3, 2023 23:23:50 GMT
[NFA, IMO]
The two Bloomberg ETF reporters and finance attorney Scott Johnsson have been doing great work digging through all the $BTC ETF filings (I think there are a total of 13 applicants). They’ve now narrowed down the ETF approval dates (assuming the SEC approves all applicants together): Mon (1/8/24) to Wed (1/10). Keep in mind what Anthony Scaramucci heard from BlackRock (see post above), but I guess it’s looking like the second week of Jan.
So I think the core holdings for your crypto should be $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. Here are the high-beta plays for each:
Leveraged-$BTC: $MSTR, $COIN, $CLSK
Leveraged-$ETH: $TIA
Leveraged-$SOL: $BONK, $SHDW, $ORCA, $POLIS, $ATLAS, $AURY, $RAY, $PYTH, $SLND, $MNGO, $MYRO, $GUAC (and maybe some $DARK, $FLUXB, $SNS).
Since it’s so easy, super cheap, and frictionless to buy $SOL app tokens on Jupiter Exchange using the Phantom Wallet (see post above), I think it’s safest to just buy all of these.
So, right now, here’s what I think is the ideal crypto allocation: 25% $BTC, 25% $ETH, 25% $SOL, 25% high-beta plays for each. And maybe a few percent of those 100x microcaps. Mine are mostly in $SOL app tokens. Everything under $BONK is <$150m m/c (w/ many <$50m m/c). The gas fees for Ethereum nanocaps are too high (if I wanted to buy just a little bit of each). The only Ethereum nanocaps I have are $OTSEA and $XPB.
When $COIN IPO’d a couple years ago, they basically relied almost completely on trading commissions. I thought then that DEXes, like $UNI, would eat into their trading volume. That call was much too early. Maybe in another 10yr? Coinbase has really moved fast, esp over the past year, and have developed multiple avenues of strong revenue sources. With $BTC really making its move only in the past few months, Q4 earnings should really spike. Thus the recent pop/outperformance of $COIN.
Follow @0xjaypeg. Lots of good dd shared. Here’s his bull thesis on $COIN and $CLSK:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcQcvQ_j3Xg
www.jaypeg.me/p/bitcoin-miners-thesis
In a recent $JPM research report (10/11/23), they wrote: “Not all miners created equal: Miners vary by scale, operating efficiency, access to capital & growth prospects. We believe $CLSK, our top pick, offers the best balance of scale, growth potential, power costs & relative value. MARA is the largest operator but has the highest energy cost and lowest margins. RIOT has relatively low power costs and liquidity and is nearing completion of a large facility, but is by far the most expensive name in our coverage universe. CIFR has the lowest energy costs but is growth constrained.”
And check out Asymmetric crypto fund’s CIO (@joemccann) report on $SOL & $BONK released today.
Check out @peterlbrandt tweet (11/26), showing you his $BTC chart formula. According to his model, he thinks $BTC will hit its previous ATH of $69k in 3Q24 (~Aug 2024). Then $BTC will hit its cycle high in late 2024/early 2025 at ~$130-$140k. So this is a full year BEFORE Bob Loukas’ model in the video I linked above. So keep that in mind.
So here are some $BTC ATH target dates for this cycle from CryptoTwitter influencers:
- Charles Edwards: cycle top by end of 2024 (he thinks the four-year cycle has now been shortened)
- Peter Brandt: this cycle top: late 2024/early 2025: $130k+ [me: his chart showed $135k-$140k]
- Avi Felman: 1/21/25 (I may have gotten Avi and Jonah mixed up)
- Dan Morehead: Nov 1, 2025
- Rekt Capital: Sept/Oct 2025
- Bob Loukas: Nov 2025: $130k
- CryptoCon: 11/28/25
- Lady of Crypto: tops out late 2025
If you’re still not in yet, I think maybe consider buying with 60-70% of your crypto allocation now. Don’t worry about price. Some traders on CT do expect some “sell the news” at a big round number like $40k. I have no idea. Bc, otoh, maybe $40k gets everyone to FOMO in. Who knows. I think it’s best not to try and trade the volatility. As I mentioned before, whatever you put in, just HODL till ATH (sometime betw end of 2024 to end of 2025, as predicted above). With the rest of your cash, buy any pullbacks. And some see mid/high $40k to $50k+ after ETF approvals. Then a significant 30-40% pullback, followed by prior cycle ATH ($69k) later in the year. (But keep in mind the two biggest risks in one of my prior posts. And, ofc, NFA, DYOR.)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C94O4lm-Luc&ab_channel=CryptoInvesting
Here’s a clip of an interview with Michael Saylor explaining the value prop of bitcoin (this link is from some YT channel just trying to capture views). Set aside your biases you have about Saylor for a moment, and just listen to how he views bitcoin as scarce, desirable, digital beachfront (or Midtown Manhattan) property. I think it’s a pretty compelling analogy to help someone trying to wrap their head around bitcoin. (Yes, the critic will object that there’s 10,000 other cryptocurrencies out there. But as Saylor notes, there’s a bunch of land in the middle of Australia [and throughout the rest of the world] that no one wants. It’s the Miami beachfront property that has 100x’ed in value over the past century.)
*EDIT (12/7)(NFA)
Lots of $SOL app token airdrops going on. Those who staked some $SOL on Jito got at least ~$5k (some got six figures) of $JTO tokens today (now worth $10k). If you’ve been buying $SOL app tokens on Jupiter Exchange (https://jup.ag) using the Phantom wallet (https://phantom.app), it looks like you’ll be eligible for both their airdrops in the coming months. It’s not too late. Not sure if they’ll exclude U.S. residents. There are a number of other $SOL apps that will also do airdrops in the coming months. Search $SOL Twitter to find out which ones.
Btw, when using the Phantom wallet, be sure not to click on any of the “free NFT” links (you can lose all your crypto in that wallet). Phantom is trying to weed out the spam, but many still get through their filters. To be safe, don’t click on any of them.
You can add a lot of these obscure crypto tokens on the TradingView app -- even $BONK.
Again, just throwing out some wild ideas if you’re comfortable with the risk. Here’s a simple (but very high risk) “3 stock” portfolio if you really want to juice the returns, yet keep it real simple. Assuming crypto does pump next year ($BTC, $ETH, $SOL), then these high-beta plays will outperform the underlying. So forget about the majors, and just buy the high-beta.
Instead of $BTC, buy $COIN (In a bull run, where will everybody buy their crypto? Coinbase.)
Instead of $ETH, buy $TIA (How best to scale Ethereum? Celestia.)
Instead of $SOL, buy $BONK (The best dog coins in the last cycle -- Bitcoin: $DOGE, Ethereum: $SHIB. The best dog coin in this cycle -- Solana: $BONK.)
Here are the 1mo. returns for each:
$BTC: +23%
$ETH: +26%
$SOL:+65%
$COIN: +58%
$MSTR: +25%
$CLSK: +116%
$TIA: +300%
$BONK: +1,146% (>10x in 1mo., crazy)
$GUAC: +1,500% (wish I got in earlier)
Btw, these nine stocks/crypto are my favorites. IMO, they’re all you need for this crypto bullrun. But to be safe, I do think you should buy a little bit of all the $SOL app tokens I listed above (here are a few I left out: $JTO, $HNT, $HXRO, $ACS, $CROWN, $HONEY, $VLX, $NOS). But the majority should be in $BONK, and $GUAC. Rumor is that Coinbase is looking to list many of the $SOL tokens. $JTO just listed today. And it looks like they’re laying the groundwork for a $BONK listing. If so, get ready for it to pump hard. Also, be sure to buy a decent amount of $MYRO, $JTO, $JUP (when it airdrops/launches), $HNT, $SHDW, $AURY, $NOS, $HONEY. And a little bit of all the rest. After the $BTC & $ETH ETF approval/launch mania in the next many months, this cycle will be all about Solana. When the Jupiter Exchange token ($JUP) airdrops/launches, be sure to hold onto it, and also buy a bunch.
Beware: Some do expect a significant 30-40% correction some time after the $BTC ETF approval in the 2nd wk of Jan. IMO, I think that only happens if the actual ETF launch is more than one month after approval. Some think the interval could be as short as a week or two. Then, in that case, I can’t see a major 30-40% correction. But who knows? Okay, now we await NFP data tomorrow.
*EDIT (12/13)
rugcheck.xyz/
This website is only for Solana ($SOL) tokens to check on how likely it might be that your token could end up being a rugpull. If you want to speculate on Solana meme coins, go to CoinGecko, and click on your token. Then copy the Contract address for that token (over on the right side of page). Paste that meme token contract address into the website above, and it will give you a rating for that coin. So, for example, $SLND has a “Danger” rating (single owner: 44% of supply; mint authority still enabled -- no fixed supply). $SNS (“Danger”) still has mint and freeze authority enabled (you can be rugged). Don’t buy these tokens. And remove it from your CoinGecko Watchlist. So, $MYRO, which I recommended in previous posts, has a “Danger” rating, so I dumped it for more $BONK.
All of these have a “Danger” reading: $SAMO, $MYRO, $SLND, $SCS, $MEAN, $SNS, $ACS, $CROWN, $AURY, $MNGO, $FIDA, $HONEY, $MNDE, $ATLAS, $POLIS, $RAY, $PYTH, $HNT. $NOS has a “Warning” rating. This doesn’t necessarily mean that all of these are rugpulls waiting to happen. Some are rated “Danger” only bc the founders hold such a high concentration of the tokens. That could actually benefit the protocol since they’re motivated to make it succeed. Otoh, maybe it’s “Danger” rated bc they could constantly sell their stack into the mkt, depressing prices. Check each coin yourself. It’ll tell you why each token was rated as such. Some of these are solid coins and will probably do really well over the next year or two. It’s up to you. Pls dyor. Good thing is that my favorite $SOL coins have a “Good” rating: $BONK (available on Coinbase tomorrow), $GUAC, $SHDW. Can’t seem to get a rating on $JTO. Some of the best $SOL tokens have yet to launch. But when these tokens do their airdrop, buy these: $JUP (Jupiter Exchange), $PHTM (or whatever the Phantom wallet ticker turns out to be), $TNSR (Tensor NFT Marketplace), and, ofc, $JTO (now available on Coinbase).
Reminder: If you see free tokens in your Phantom wallet, don’t try and swap them for $SOL or another token, bc once you give permission for that transaction, they can steal your coins in your wallet. I know, it’s so easy to make a mistake with crypto. Just be vigilant and extra careful. And as I mentioned, don’t click on any “free NFTs.” Same deal.
https://www.reddit.com/r/solana/comments/18er2c8/how_to_avoid_the_biggest_crypto_scams_and/
This is a great reddit post on protecting your crypto (opsec). Pls don’t skip this. And copy the link and send it to any noob friends/family getting started in crypto. Not only do you have to deal with the extreme volatility of crypto, there are so many ways you can lose your crypto with simple mistakes. So pls read and re-read this reddit post. If you’re new to crypto, maybe even print it out and tape it on your wall.
Tip: On Coinbase, use the Advanced Trading option instead to save on fees (hover over your Profile and click Advanced Trading).
Remember: As we saw this week, these high-beta plays are great when things are pumping and scary when things are dumping. So it’s best to have 75% ballast in equal-weight $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. Then the other 25% in high-beta plays listed in a previous post.
*EDIT (12/14)
$BONK’s listing on Coinbase today set a record for the highest volume on the first day of launch. Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange (6x the daily volume of Coinbase) and Crypto.com also listed $BONK today. And Huobi (HTX) announced today that they’ll be listing it in Jan. I’m sure others are getting it lined up. Does that mean it keeps pumping from here? Who knows? May need a breather, so finding precise entry prices is not easy. Maybe just DCA in. Buy some now. See if there’s a pullback. Buy some more.
I think the proper way to frame $BONK as an investment is to first do your dd on the coin. I listed some fund mgr research/analysis reports in some previous posts. Once you see the impact $BONK’s airdrop played last Christmas when Solana was in its deepest pit -- post-SBF when everyone was dunking on them -- you’ll understand why this token is at the heart of Solana’s culture. Once you get that, then you just place $BONK’s investment thesis within the broader $SOL thesis. Will Solana’s incredible development and growth cause the token to 5-10x from here over the next two years? If so, maybe $BONK still has a long runway. Timing perfect short-term entries to take a position is not easy. So maybe DCA.
[NFA, DYOR. Solana risks: low risk, but the blockchain has a history of stalling/shutting down. They’ve upgraded most of that, but if it does happen again, can see an immediate -25% plunge; $BONK even more. Maybe as Gensler extends his hand to Bitcoiners with a spot ETF approval, he slaps Solana manlets (the term Solana proponents call themselves lol) with his other hand by serving Toly (Solana’s founder) with a lawsuit (SEC already has lawsuits against Coinbase and Kraken, claiming that they’re selling securities, with $SOL being targeted as one of them). Then $SOL tanks a hard -40%; $BONK even harder. Anyway, nothing is risk-free]