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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 4:12:15 GMT
I'm surprised how many followers this ticker has on ST. I also like how actively traded this stock is. ST followers keeps on growing. Good chance this gets pumped like crazy the next few weeks, even more than it is now.
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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 6:37:45 GMT
I'm still a little bit confused on the exact number of o/s and accurate market cap.
They had 72.5M o/s. 1:16 r/s brought that number to 4.5M. Equity offering for 7,692,307 shares should have brought the o/s total to approx 12.2M, no? Then, inducement of 6,620,358 in warrants would bring the o/s close to 18.85M....am I missing something or getting confused somehow? I keep seeing people post differing MC numbers. Yahoo says they have 11.65 o/s.
None of it changes my sentiment to own this, I just want to have the correct numbers. Bottom line is, just on their current and potential cash position alone, it is a nice value play. At the very least, they have $55M on hand and somewhere between a $75-100M market cap. If/when they receive the $48M upfront FDA approval payment (assuming they get approved) the cash on hand alone would justify the current market cap. Also now that they have the massive raise out of the way I am not worried about that. The biggest negative would be if they induced the new warrants before the PDUFA date, but I don't see them doing that. After the PDUFA date has come and gone, all bets are off. For now I am treating this as a run-up to data-like play. I'll re-evaluate as we get closer to March. That said, there has to be a reason why the lenders renegotiated the way they did and that they were able to raise so much cash in this volatile market:
As a result of the Reverse Stock Split, every sixteen (16) shares of the Company’s pre-reverse split common stock will be combined and reclassified into one (1) share of common stock. By doing so, the number of outstanding shares of the Company's common stock will be reduced from approximately 72.5 million to approximately 4.5 million shares. No fractional shares of common stock will be issued to any stockholders in connection with the Reverse Stock Split. Any fractional shares resulting from the Reverse Stock Split will be paid to each stockholder in an amount in cash resulting from multiplying (i) the closing sales price of the Company’s common stock as reported on the OTC Markets Venture Market on December 23, 2020 by (ii) the number of shares of the Company’s common stock held by such stockholder before the Reverse Stock Split that would otherwise have been exchanged for such fractional share interest.
....
In December 2019, the Company completed the first phase of its financial restructuring process entering into certain amendments to its debt agreements to extend the debt maturity dates to March 31, 2021, as well as entering into a debt exchange agreement with Deerfield, allowing for the conversion of approximately $18.7 million of nominal debt into a combination of preferred and common shares, which was completed on August 7, 2020. After receiving shareholder authorization for the Company’s Board to effect a reverse stock split, the Company entered the second phase of its financial restructuring process. The following provides a brief summary of the transactions recently completed:
● On December 20, 2020, the Company entered into the December 2020 Exchange Agreement with the Deerfield Lenders, which provided that upon completion of an equity offering of at least $40 million, the Deerfield Lenders would exchange additional debt into equity. In addition, the maturity date for the remainder of the debt would be extended to March 31, 2023. Subsequently, on December 28, 2020, the Company reported that its other lenders, Delaware Street Capital and Kingdon Capital (together with Deerfield, the Lenders) had joined the December 2020 Exchange Agreement.
● On December 23, 2020, a reverse stock split of 1-for-16 shares was made effective as a preparatory step to potentially qualify for re-listing on The Nasdaq Capital Market.
● On January 8, 2021, the Company announced pricing of a follow-on equity offering of $50 million, at a price of $6.50 per share, with an issuance of a combination of common shares and pre-funded warrants to purchase 7,692,307 common shares, as well as the issuance of warrants to purchase an additional 7,692,307 at an exercise price of $6.50 per share (the Offering Warrants). This transaction closed on January 12, 2021, with net proceeds to the Company of approximately $46.4 million after underwriting discounts and commissions.
● On January 8, 2021, shares of the Company’s common stock were re-listed and began trading on The Nasdaq Capital Market.
● On January 12, 2021, pursuant to the December 2020 Exchange Agreement, the Company made a cash debt repayment of $30.3 million to the Lenders and completed the exchange of approximately $31.5 million of debt into preferred shares, leaving a remainder debt amount of approximately $7.6 million with a maturity date of March 31, 2023.
● Yesterday, January 26, 2021, the Company announced a warrant exchange and inducement transaction with certain of holders of the Offering Warrants, whereby such holders agreed to exercise for cash the Offering Warrants to purchase 6,620,358 shares of the Company’s common stock in exchange for the Company’s agreement to issue new warrants (the Inducement Warrants) to purchase up to 7,944,430 shares of the Company’s common stock, which is equal to 120% of the number of shares of the Company’s common stock issued upon exercise of the Offering Warrants. As a result of this transaction, the Company will receive gross proceeds of approximately $44.0 million.
● We intend to use approximately $8.0 million of the proceeds from the warrant exchange and the inducement transaction to repay the remaining debt, including the related prepayment premium.
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 3, 2021 10:07:29 GMT
They had 72.5M o/s. 1:16 r/s brought that number to 4.5M. Equity offering for 7,692,307 shares should have brought the o/s total to approx 12.2M, no? Then, inducement of 6,620,358 in warrants would bring the o/s close to 18.85M....am I missing something or getting confused somehow? I keep seeing people post differing MC numbers. Yahoo says they have 11.65 o/s.
18.85M seems correct. But it doesn't really matter.
The biggest negative would be if they induced the new warrants before the PDUFA date, but I don't see them doing that. After the PDUFA date has come and gone, all bets are off. For now I am treating this as a run-up to data-like play.
Why should KMPH induce the warrants before PDUFA? They have a lot of cash on hand now and if they are really confident, they won't do it.
I think that i will add extra shares to my position for the possible run up, then sell those extra shares before PDUFA and keep my large core position for the decision. It's also possible that the FDA decides before the PDUFA date. No assurance that we don't get the news before the deadline.
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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 11:44:47 GMT
They had 72.5M o/s. 1:16 r/s brought that number to 4.5M. Equity offering for 7,692,307 shares should have brought the o/s total to approx 12.2M, no? Then, inducement of 6,620,358 in warrants would bring the o/s close to 18.85M....am I missing something or getting confused somehow? I keep seeing people post differing MC numbers. Yahoo says they have 11.65 o/s.
18.85M seems correct. But it doesn't really matter. The biggest negative would be if they induced the new warrants before the PDUFA date, but I don't see them doing that. After the PDUFA date has come and gone, all bets are off. For now I am treating this as a run-up to data-like play.Why should KMPH induce the warrants before PDUFA? They have a lot of cash on hand now and if they are really confident, they won't do it. I think that i will add extra shares to my position for the possible run up, then sell those extra shares before PDUFA and keep my large core position for the decision. It's also possible that the FDA decides before the PDUFA date. No assurance that we don't get the news before the deadline. Exactly. I don’t see why they would want/need to do that. I’m trying to find negatives for owning this from now up until the PDUFA date, and I can’t really come up with anything. The r/s, up-list, and dilution over the last month has de-risked a lot for anyone who bought after that intends to hold up until the PDUFA date. They could of course not get approval, and that would be a problem. Or not get the go ahead for the 30/13 labeling. But then again that is *after* (on) PDUFA day. Yes it would actually be a good thing for the pps if they gave their decision before March and caught everyone off guard. Your strategy sounds good. I have a pretty big position nkw (30% of my portfolio) so I don’t really need any more. But if it hovers around $6 today I may do one more buy. It hasn’t been lower than the current price since July 2020, and went to $22 in December. Of course you have to figure the dilution into that, but still, none of their pipeline is figured into the current market cap. Crazy.
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 3, 2021 12:23:57 GMT
Nothing is guaranteed in biotech. The biggest risk for a CRL are often CMC problems. But with Gurnet as a partner and all the knowledge they have, the risk is low in my opinion. The label is a good question and that is impossible to evaluate. But that is also the big chance to make a lot of money!
The inducement of the warrants in front of the PDUFA would possibly limit the upside, but also reduces the downside risk, because of a higher cash / share value.
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Post by selluwud on Feb 3, 2021 12:48:03 GMT
You guys have certainly done the DD and I am following this one. I may venture here today as I don't see a lot of downside over the short term. But as always, it's crapshoot with unforeseen possibilities.
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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 13:34:27 GMT
You guys have certainly done the DD and I am following this one. I may venture here today as I don't see a lot of downside over the short term. But as always, it's crapshoot with unforeseen possibilities. Yeah. Again, I am simply trying to make the case for buying and holding up until the PDUFA date. Anything after is gravy. Knowing my luck they’ll re-price the warrants at $2.50, lol...
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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 13:49:18 GMT
Sheesh this is getting pumped hard at ST
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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 14:53:06 GMT
20 minutes in and already surpassed the daily volume average. FOMO in full swing here.
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Post by selluwud on Feb 3, 2021 14:55:46 GMT
20 minutes in and already surpassed the daily volume average. FOMO in full swing here. I jumped in premarket, not the price you have, but good enough. 6.50 will have to do.
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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 15:00:35 GMT
20 minutes in and already surpassed the daily volume average. FOMO in full swing here. I jumped in premarket, not the price you have, but good enough. 6.50 will have to do. You have the exact same price as those who partook in the last offering, so not bad at all.
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Post by JHam on Feb 3, 2021 16:58:08 GMT
Check this out. There is a poster on ST called @brazilian_Biotrader. She has 6.4K followers and also a lot of followers on Twitter. Turns out she used to work for Novartis and helped develop an ADHD drug. She just appeared in a YouTube chat for Benzinga and discussed KMPH. She is very bullish and funny enough has the same sentiment that we are talking about here. She thinks it has huge potential and should double from the current price before the PDUFA date. But she said she’ll sell most of her position prior to PDUFA and keep her free shares through the decision. She talks about the same Shire team who developed Vyvanse now backing KP415 being a huge positive. She also confirmed what I thought, that the market cap is just under $80M (as of today). This isn’t like CNBC or anything and I really don’t know the background of this person, but the channel has 59K subscribers and many were interacting during the interview: (Fast forward to 1hr 51 min) youtu.be/Jxu1or9r5G0
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 3, 2021 23:02:46 GMT
This guy has almost 170k followers on twitter.
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Post by JHam on Feb 4, 2021 1:51:22 GMT
This guy has almost 170k followers on twitter. Awesome. The hard pump is on. Lots of people with thousands of followers on ST now in on the action. It has all the ingredients for a parabolic run; proven product, already partnered up with big time milestone money waiting on the other side, no fear of dilution, at rock bottom pps, almost cult-stock, micro-float. It could get interesting the next few weeks.
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Post by JHam on Feb 4, 2021 3:42:53 GMT
Half a million shares traded AH. The word is getting out. Tomorrow should be a good day.
Also, I had it confirmed with the KMPH guru, that the current o/s is 18.85M which would out the market cap at $124M (sorry, not sure why I didn’t calculate that accurately in my last post). Now it makes more sense to me. The r/s plus shares from the offering/induced warrants has made trading platforms’ heads spin lol.
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Post by JHam on Feb 4, 2021 12:10:45 GMT
Just grabbed another chunk pre-market. Cost basis is now $6.16. I'll keep buying as long as I stay under $6.36.
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Post by JHam on Feb 4, 2021 13:18:57 GMT
ST just went over 10K followers. Was 8K 3 days ago and 9.5K 3 hours ago, lol.
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 4, 2021 14:33:43 GMT
ST just went over 10K followers. Was 8K 3 days ago and 9.5K 3 hours ago, lol. It's developing with rapid speed. Open above $7 and now at $7.18...
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Post by JHam on Feb 4, 2021 14:40:38 GMT
ST just went over 10K followers. Was 8K 3 days ago and 9.5K 3 hours ago, lol. It's developing with rapid speed. Open above $7 and now at $7.18... Crazy battle going on right now trying to keep it above $7. Likely to be some wild swings over the next few days.
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 4, 2021 15:24:50 GMT
It's developing with rapid speed. Open above $7 and now at $7.18... Crazy battle going on right now trying to keep it above $7. Likely to be some wild swings over the next few days. Longs won the first round Over 2 million shares traded and it's still early. Let's get $8 today.
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