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Post by JHam on Jun 19, 2022 18:59:04 GMT
Only holding a few shares of AMZN at the moment, and will add on any dips. Market looks like it wants to turn soon, and I could see at a minimum a small correction in the works. I completely agree. I have been worried that the market is too hot for some time now. My plan/hope is to keep solid core positions in my current favorite 4 stocks, but go at least half cash for a while. And to be honest with big time inflation looming in the next few years (imo), I really want to take that 50% cash and put it into a store of value (real estate, bitcoin/ethereum, maybe gold? etc...) It’s now been almost a year since this post, and sadly it has played out pretty much as anticipated to this point. Unfortunately, I still think we have a ways to go before we bottom out, imo. The Fed won’t raise rates even remotely close to the level they need to raise them, and the govt won’t stop spending. Supply chain issues, war in Ukraine and subsequent handling/worsening of the energy crisis is only exacerbating things. My crypto experiment has been very mixed. My original ETH buys were at $1400. I sold some at $3500 ish, but then bought some back above $4000. I sold all of that a while back around $3000 and rolled most of it into BTC with a cost average of about $52K. Sensing that BTC is still too much risk-on and simply trading like a tech stock I sold all of it a few months ago at $44K. I still really believe in BTC and love its concept, but I am waiting to see where the bottom is. I still think it could go as low as (or lower than) $14K. I still do own VRA, MRI, UMAMI, and PRXY. They are alt coins, but with the exception of PRXY, the first three are actual legit companies with real-life utility. UMAMI just registered in Delaware and they are about to a launch a delta-neutral high yield USDC vault. There is way to much to explain about it here, but it is not like LUNA/TERRA, or Celsius. Some beta runs have shown that it does exactly what it is supposed to (bringing in way better returns than the broader market without any dilution/emissions). I’ll definitely be throwing some cash at this when it launches in the next few weeks. I never ended up getting into precious metals or real estate. My parents and I were thinking of buying a waterfront condo in FL, but fears of the housing bubble/mortgage rates, we decided to put the kabosh in that. It’s a pretty scary time to find a safe place to put your money. Thankfully most of my portfolio is split between two stocks, QUIK and ONDS. Both of which have been holding up very nicely in this crazy market. They are the kinds of stocks that you want to own during a high inflationary time like this, in my very novice opinion. Both companies have innovative tech that, regardless of an economic downturn, the world is/will be dependent on. I’ll let you all check out those forums for more info, for those who don’t already know about those stocks. |
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Post by captsmith77 on Jun 22, 2022 7:17:55 GMT
I believe that housing prices will continue to be strong, especially in notable areas. There just aren't enough houses for people looking, and the population continues to grow. I would think that if it was a cash investment that buying land and/or housing would be a wise investment. Not sure about Florida though, especially along the coastline, as I would imagine insurance is much higher. I used to live in Pensacola years ago, and the residents there thought they were safe at the time from any hurricanes. Oops.
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Post by JHam on Jun 26, 2022 8:29:32 GMT
I believe that housing prices will continue to be strong, especially in notable areas. There just aren't enough houses for people looking, and the population continues to grow. I would think that if it was a cash investment that buying land and/or housing would be a wise investment. Not sure about Florida though, especially along the coastline, as I would imagine insurance is much higher. I used to live in Pensacola years ago, and the residents there thought they were safe at the time from any hurricanes. Oops.
Here is an interesting take from someone I respect and follow on Twitter. I am aligned with a lot of his thinking, especially points 1-5 (I know you probably disagree with point 3.). If this is truly the black swan event of black swan events where the entire global system melts down and we are forced to rise up from the ashes, then I think 6-7 are possible. I obviously have no idea, but I am pretty pessimistic on the mid-long term (next 2-3 years). I give it a 40% chance that we reach the scorched earth scenario he forecasts. Not 50%, but still quite high: (The tweets are a little difficult to follow so I copy/pasted it here to make it easier and posted the link to the original below) Macro predictions for 2022:23
1. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is a black swan event that ignites contagion across the globe. The BOJ’s YCC efforts to buoy the infamous USD/JPY carry trade and keep inflation at bay won’t work. USD/JPY at 136/USD at levels not seen since 2002eventually the BOJ will have to mitigate the bleeding and cease YCC to defend the flailing JPY. Rates will float and likely rocket higher. Inflation in Japan sets in. BOJ will start to unload their balance sheet including $1tril in US treasuries. Prediction: Japan is the match to ignite the global contagion fire.
2. The Fed is well into raising rates and has now begun QT in the US. Liquidity for block trades in credit is already awful with the 10yr over 330bps. IG/HY spreads are already blowing out. New issues seem to be fine still. What happens if both QT + the BOJ start offloading treasuries simultaneously? There’s already zero liquidity in the credit market and buyers prefer new issues over existing debt, so bond prices are marked down/crater and yields jump even higher to offload existing debt. But who’s buying? Hedge funds mostly since the buyer of last resort (the Fed) is taking a breather. But since we’re clearly in a deflationary spiral, HF’s should prefer cash so they’ll limit their exposure. Prediction: rates will explode higher.
3. The housing market is toast. Real estate (RE) has relied on cheap debt to propel prices higher. Now debt is getting more expensive, and will continue to get more expensive as the Fed gets inflation under control + QT + Japan offloading treasuries. I’d venture to say the 10yr could rise as high as 8-9%, putting the average 30yr mortgage around 10%. Prediction: housing prices in the US drop -50% (at least).
4. Equities (domestic + EM) continue to perform poorly until rates reach a bottom and the Fed signals capitulation. Stocks are a great inflation hedge but perform poorly under a deflationary regime. Defensives might outperform but will still fall with the greater sell off . Tech & high P/E stocks are toast for a while. Good news is positive FCF companies will go on sale and zombie companies with too much HY debt will finally fall prediction: stocks continue to crater another -50% from current levels.
5. Crypto: crypto is the last bastion of free market capitalism and has been somewhat of a leading indicator in the last 8 months. Crypto will continue to get rekt with stocks as the corr coef remains +1. At some point an equilibrium level will be reached and the selling will exhaust, I believe this is somewhere around the $10k level for $BTC and $400-500 level for $ETH. Crypto will lead the rebound in assets though and will be the fastest horse but there will be a clear bottom before this happens. Prediction: $btc to $10k and $eth to $400.
6. Global recession. This is where it gets interesting since this recession won’t be like the others. With inflation still running hot and global debt levels at unprecedented levels, the Fed/central banks will try to drop rates and turn the money printing spigots back on, but this time it won’t work. Deflation has set in and you can’t print your way out of deflation with this much debt in the system. Risk assets will bounce temporarily only to continue their decline. Prediction: QE resumes but is ineffective.
7. Global fiat will be debased by multiples as central banks try swimming upstream. Assets linked to fiat currencies will go even lower. Commodities and barter trade will come roaring back. Physical silver/gold will do very well and be sought after. Stand-alone currency systems like $btc and $eth start to decouple from equities. Worldwide gov’s start to resemble Wehrmacht Germany in the 1930’s as they’re forced to remain sidelined until the deflationary wave subsides. A new world currency based on blockchain tech (CBDC) finally emerges. The world economy is forced into this new monetary system (but that’s a thread for another day). Prediction: fiat finally meets its maker, physical silver/gold outperform, barter comes roaring back, King $btc takes the mantle as the most important currency in the world (until it is banned).
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Post by JHam on Sept 23, 2022 14:20:26 GMT
I believe that housing prices will continue to be strong, especially in notable areas. There just aren't enough houses for people looking, and the population continues to grow. I would think that if it was a cash investment that buying land and/or housing would be a wise investment. Not sure about Florida though, especially along the coastline, as I would imagine insurance is much higher. I used to live in Pensacola years ago, and the residents there thought they were safe at the time from any hurricanes. Oops.
Here is an interesting take from someone I respect and follow on Twitter. I am aligned with a lot of his thinking, especially points 1-5 (I know you probably disagree with point 3.). If this is truly the black swan event of black swan events where the entire global system melts down and we are forced to rise up from the ashes, then I think 6-7 are possible. I obviously have no idea, but I am pretty pessimistic on the mid-long term (next 2-3 years). I give it a 40% chance that we reach the scorched earth scenario he forecasts. Not 50%, but still quite high: (The tweets are a little difficult to follow so I copy/pasted it here to make it easier and posted the link to the original below) Macro predictions for 2022:23
1. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is a black swan event that ignites contagion across the globe. The BOJ’s YCC efforts to buoy the infamous USD/JPY carry trade and keep inflation at bay won’t work. USD/JPY at 136/USD at levels not seen since 2002eventually the BOJ will have to mitigate the bleeding and cease YCC to defend the flailing JPY. Rates will float and likely rocket higher. Inflation in Japan sets in. BOJ will start to unload their balance sheet including $1tril in US treasuries. Prediction: Japan is the match to ignite the global contagion fire.
2. The Fed is well into raising rates and has now begun QT in the US. Liquidity for block trades in credit is already awful with the 10yr over 330bps. IG/HY spreads are already blowing out. New issues seem to be fine still. What happens if both QT + the BOJ start offloading treasuries simultaneously? There’s already zero liquidity in the credit market and buyers prefer new issues over existing debt, so bond prices are marked down/crater and yields jump even higher to offload existing debt. But who’s buying? Hedge funds mostly since the buyer of last resort (the Fed) is taking a breather. But since we’re clearly in a deflationary spiral, HF’s should prefer cash so they’ll limit their exposure. Prediction: rates will explode higher.
3. The housing market is toast. Real estate (RE) has relied on cheap debt to propel prices higher. Now debt is getting more expensive, and will continue to get more expensive as the Fed gets inflation under control + QT + Japan offloading treasuries. I’d venture to say the 10yr could rise as high as 8-9%, putting the average 30yr mortgage around 10%. Prediction: housing prices in the US drop -50% (at least).
4. Equities (domestic + EM) continue to perform poorly until rates reach a bottom and the Fed signals capitulation. Stocks are a great inflation hedge but perform poorly under a deflationary regime. Defensives might outperform but will still fall with the greater sell off . Tech & high P/E stocks are toast for a while. Good news is positive FCF companies will go on sale and zombie companies with too much HY debt will finally fall prediction: stocks continue to crater another -50% from current levels.
5. Crypto: crypto is the last bastion of free market capitalism and has been somewhat of a leading indicator in the last 8 months. Crypto will continue to get rekt with stocks as the corr coef remains +1. At some point an equilibrium level will be reached and the selling will exhaust, I believe this is somewhere around the $10k level for $BTC and $400-500 level for $ETH. Crypto will lead the rebound in assets though and will be the fastest horse but there will be a clear bottom before this happens. Prediction: $btc to $10k and $eth to $400.
6. Global recession. This is where it gets interesting since this recession won’t be like the others. With inflation still running hot and global debt levels at unprecedented levels, the Fed/central banks will try to drop rates and turn the money printing spigots back on, but this time it won’t work. Deflation has set in and you can’t print your way out of deflation with this much debt in the system. Risk assets will bounce temporarily only to continue their decline. Prediction: QE resumes but is ineffective.
7. Global fiat will be debased by multiples as central banks try swimming upstream. Assets linked to fiat currencies will go even lower. Commodities and barter trade will come roaring back. Physical silver/gold will do very well and be sought after. Stand-alone currency systems like $btc and $eth start to decouple from equities. Worldwide gov’s start to resemble Wehrmacht Germany in the 1930’s as they’re forced to remain sidelined until the deflationary wave subsides. A new world currency based on blockchain tech (CBDC) finally emerges. The world economy is forced into this new monetary system (but that’s a thread for another day). Prediction: fiat finally meets its maker, physical silver/gold outperform, barter comes roaring back, King $btc takes the mantle as the most important currency in the world (until it is banned).
It looks like we could finally be reaching the breaking point for the global economy. The JPY is crumbling. The Ministry of Finance announced intervention yesterday to try and boost a reeling JPY. That will work for a few days and then I expect the downspin of the JPY to continue. The Euro is in trouble too, but it’s all connected. Bank of Japan will desperately sell off US treasuries (which is what the Fed is doing as well) and that will be the final straw. As the post above predicts, Japan will by the ember that starts the first imo, and it looks like we are close. Not really any point to this post, other than to say fasten your seatbelts. |
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Post by captsmith77 on Sept 30, 2022 8:18:43 GMT
The market is oversold now, IMO.
I'm buying up shares of different companies as often as I can.
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