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Post by JHam on Jan 29, 2015 17:04:01 GMT
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Post by Yelk on Jan 30, 2015 5:59:04 GMT
I noticed this stock about 3 weeks ago when I was cruising through doing my daily routine looking for beat up stocks. It was on my fairly small prospect list as I did a short sweep of financial/analyst/chart. I didn't have time to do any research on it at the time - however tonight I dug into it after you refreshed my memory JHam.
Some of the first points I read were slightly pumpy such as: TNX-102 SL could be the equivalent of Pfizer's biggest drug in its best market. This is remarkable - at $183 billion in market cap, Pfizer is about 1,000 times the size of Tonix. Or 1-4 billion $ estimates.
Numbers aside I find the following extremely attractive:
~Low PPS ~Cash position through 2015 secure ~Multiple large catalysts (more to come): 2015 end Headache, 2016 PH II PTSD, 2017 PH III and if all goes well 2018 we are on all cylinders. ~Huge multiple market reach including military ~Very sound science IMO and much higher chance of success than many companies I've been looking at ~Low market cap - this can be volatile and great room for upside and taking gains as we go along on run ups as seen from late 2013 and early 2014. By the way I did some research on that for about an hour and read about 10 SA articles. I was impressed that SA was able to put an article out 3 days before the stock soared up and 3 days warning to get out before it plummeted. They suggested the initial 50% boost was from a Pro article that pumped the stock for its current potential we discuss today and obvious other catalysts at the time. This stock seems to have an energy to move when it wants. ~Strong analyst outlooks from what I've seen, low risk and large upsides for even this year with not many catalysts short term horizon (PH III start attracting institutional investors and end of 2015 data release for starters). ~Institutional current holdings is strong as is buy/sell last 3 months showing over 2X more purchases than sells and strong holds. Also 100% insider buys, no sells. ~Stock is near its short term average moving and well below 200 day by nearly 30%
I'm sure I forgot many other things as I rushed through it all in one sitting but I will be establishing a position here shortly if all goes well with WF10 for NRIFF and keeping an eye on this attractive long stock.
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Post by JHam on Jan 30, 2015 7:57:48 GMT
I noticed this stock about 3 weeks ago when I was cruising through doing my daily routine looking for beat up stocks. It was on my fairly small prospect list as I did a short sweep of financial/analyst/chart. I didn't have time to do any research on it at the time - however tonight I dug into it after you refreshed my memory JHam. Some of the first points I read were slightly pumpy such as: TNX-102 SL could be the equivalent of Pfizer's biggest drug in its best market. This is remarkable - at $183 billion in market cap, Pfizer is about 1,000 times the size of Tonix. Or 1-4 billion $ estimates. Numbers aside I find the following extremely attractive: ~Low PPS ~Cash position through 2015 secure ~Multiple large catalysts (more to come): 2015 end Headache, 2016 PH II PTSD, 2017 PH III and if all goes well 2018 we are on all cylinders. ~Huge multiple market reach including military ~Very sound science IMO and much higher chance of success than many companies I've been looking at ~Low market cap - this can be volatile and great room for upside and taking gains as we go along on run ups as seen from late 2013 and early 2014. By the way I did some research on that for about an hour and read about 10 SA articles. I was impressed that SA was able to put an article out 3 days before the stock soared up and 3 days warning to get out before it plummeted. They suggested the initial 50% boost was from a Pro article that pumped the stock for its current potential we discuss today and obvious other catalysts at the time. This stock seems to have an energy to move when it wants. ~Strong analyst outlooks from what I've seen, low risk and large upsides for even this year with not many catalysts short term horizon (PH III start attracting institutional investors and end of 2015 data release for starters). ~Institutional current holdings is strong as is buy/sell last 3 months showing over 2X more purchases than sells and strong holds. Also 100% insider buys, no sells. ~Stock is near its short term average moving and well below 200 day by nearly 30% I'm sure I forgot many other things as I rushed through it all in one sitting but I will be establishing a position here shortly if all goes well with WF10 for NRIFF and keeping an eye on this attractive long stock. That is why I decided to open a position today. The risk at this level is very minimal in my opinion. The pps got killed when they failed to meet end points. The market feels that the science doesn't work, as reflected in the share price. TNXP and the FDA feel otherwise, which is why the FDA allowed them to go into P3. So what is different now compared to a few months ago when the pps was over $15? Nothing in my opinion. And as soon as they start P3 maybe the market will start to recognize that.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 30, 2015 19:35:44 GMT
I noticed this stock about 3 weeks ago when I was cruising through doing my daily routine looking for beat up stocks. It was on my fairly small prospect list as I did a short sweep of financial/analyst/chart. I didn't have time to do any research on it at the time - however tonight I dug into it after you refreshed my memory JHam. Some of the first points I read were slightly pumpy such as: TNX-102 SL could be the equivalent of Pfizer's biggest drug in its best market. This is remarkable - at $183 billion in market cap, Pfizer is about 1,000 times the size of Tonix. Or 1-4 billion $ estimates. Numbers aside I find the following extremely attractive: ~Low PPS ~Cash position through 2015 secure ~Multiple large catalysts (more to come): 2015 end Headache, 2016 PH II PTSD, 2017 PH III and if all goes well 2018 we are on all cylinders. ~Huge multiple market reach including military ~Very sound science IMO and much higher chance of success than many companies I've been looking at ~Low market cap - this can be volatile and great room for upside and taking gains as we go along on run ups as seen from late 2013 and early 2014. By the way I did some research on that for about an hour and read about 10 SA articles. I was impressed that SA was able to put an article out 3 days before the stock soared up and 3 days warning to get out before it plummeted. They suggested the initial 50% boost was from a Pro article that pumped the stock for its current potential we discuss today and obvious other catalysts at the time. This stock seems to have an energy to move when it wants. ~Strong analyst outlooks from what I've seen, low risk and large upsides for even this year with not many catalysts short term horizon (PH III start attracting institutional investors and end of 2015 data release for starters). ~Institutional current holdings is strong as is buy/sell last 3 months showing over 2X more purchases than sells and strong holds. Also 100% insider buys, no sells. ~Stock is near its short term average moving and well below 200 day by nearly 30% I'm sure I forgot many other things as I rushed through it all in one sitting but I will be establishing a position here shortly if all goes well with WF10 for NRIFF and keeping an eye on this attractive long stock. That is why I decided to open a position today. The risk at this level is very minimal in my opinion. The pps got killed when they failed to meet end points. The market feels that the science doesn't work, as reflected in the share price. TNXP and the FDA feel otherwise, which is why the FDA allowed them to go into P3. So what is different now compared to a few months ago when the pps was over $15? Nothing in my opinion. And as soon as they start P3 maybe the market will start to recognize that. The only thing I can think in regards to this is run ups won't be as large due to market feeling and if science really doesn't hold there isn't room for growth here especially when they need funding to finish PhIII. However... Once PhIII gets rolling and we see some of the smaller trials goes through it is my hope we see some more institutional attraction and public awareness they could have undervalued this company. The best investment isn't always the most obvious - in fact is almost never is.
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Post by forthefuture on Jan 30, 2015 22:09:31 GMT
No, dropped it after the failed trial. There was too much risk for me after that point. I prob won't get in for awhile (closer to end of trial), if I ever do again. Decided to get my feet wet with this today. Looking over things, it could be the next NRIFF. - 10.7M o/s - $67M market cap - $40M cash on hand - Could capture $1B of the fibromyalgia/PTSD market They just restarted there P2 trial and are set to launch a P3 trial later this year. They didn't meet their primary end points, but very similar to FOLD, their results were statistically significant and had better response rates than the current form of treatment. This one may take a while for a typing to happen pps-wise, but it is so beaten up (just above all time low) that I wanted to grab some while it is still in the basement. Heck I was contemplating buying a while back when it was at $13 and since I feel the science is sound, it is very undervalued at this point in my opinion. It really does remind me of FOLD in terms of failing to meet end points despite showing spastic so significance, meeting with the FDA and re-structuring the trial to better show those results, and starting over. Here is a SA article from Jason Napadano from two days ago. I like what he says about institutions starting to come in this year and agree with him: seekingalpha.com/article/2852716-tonix-shares-looking-attractive-as-clinical-programs-advance-forwardGood luck, JHam! I may take a position after I redo my DD on this one. If you make a sizeable return, I'll consider myself a contributer to the cause and come knocking on your door for my cut
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Post by JHam on Feb 4, 2015 1:27:02 GMT
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Post by JHam on Feb 4, 2015 14:57:21 GMT
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Post by Yelk on Feb 5, 2015 5:13:17 GMT
streetexclusive.com/category/tonix/ The more I read about this company the more attractive it seems. I have a very small position currently. I'm just hesitant to add. The catalysts are huge but time frames... almost want to add if it goes down - the problem is will it really go down? This could be a fantastic long run-up profit taking company.
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Post by JHam on Feb 5, 2015 7:12:22 GMT
streetexclusive.com/category/tonix/ The more I read about this company the more attractive it seems. I have a very small position currently. I'm just hesitant to add. The catalysts are huge but time frames... almost want to add if it goes down - the problem is will it really go down? This could be a fantastic long run-up profit taking company. Now that dilution is out of the way I feel a lot more comfortable holding this one. But your right, we are still far away from the big catalysts. It could go down more, but it has been beaten up so badly and is so low already. I am staying on the sidelines for now, but this is definitely high on my watch list.
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Post by JHam on Feb 10, 2015 12:56:25 GMT
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Post by Yelk on Feb 10, 2015 14:19:16 GMT
I still have my original small position. Chart has been doing nothing but going down - I may look to add here soon if it continues south this week. Thanks for reminding me of this one.
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Post by JHam on Feb 10, 2015 17:12:52 GMT
I still have my original small position. Chart has been doing nothing but going down - I may look to add here soon if it continues south this week. Thanks for reminding me of this one. I am back in this one now with a small position (but bigger than before) at $5.79. Nice to know that I am in lower than the offering price.
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Post by Yelk on Feb 11, 2015 0:49:09 GMT
I still have my original small position. Chart has been doing nothing but going down - I may look to add here soon if it continues south this week. Thanks for reminding me of this one. I am back in this one now with a small position (but bigger than before) at $5.79. Nice to know that I am in lower than the offering price. Great minds think alike I upped my small position today 50% at $5.79 as well. Was in the first hour of trading. If I was home in the afternoon might have added on that dip.
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Post by JHam on Feb 13, 2015 11:00:18 GMT
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Post by Yelk on Feb 13, 2015 14:14:20 GMT
Glad to hear thanks for the update. Looks like the chart has hit its resistance bottom I hope! The 5.41 earlier this year was directly after bad news and recovered fast so I would call our current location the bottom really.
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Post by JHam on Feb 16, 2015 13:43:36 GMT
I meant to post this the other day: ir.tonixpharma.com/press-releases/detail/934Just the PR of the deal for $28.7M closing, but you can see the names of some pretty good firms who took part in the raise; "Broadfin Capital LLC, Deerfield Management Company, L.P., Sabby Management LLC and others."
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Post by Yelk on Feb 16, 2015 16:36:56 GMT
I meant to post this the other day: ir.tonixpharma.com/press-releases/detail/934Just the PR of the deal for $28.7M closing, but you can see the names of some pretty good firms who took part in the raise; "Broadfin Capital LLC, Deerfield Management Company, L.P., Sabby Management LLC and others." Excellent find. I'm excited for where this company will go and personally I hope it dips down a tad more before we start to see signs of life. I don't have the cash on hand now to establish a position as large as I want with 5 major catalyst companies right now that I'm in and a spread of small longs. IF all goes well I will look to add between March and April to have a good position if PPS is attractive. Will probably depend if ATHX tanks 90% or not
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Post by JHam on Feb 16, 2015 17:16:08 GMT
I meant to post this the other day: ir.tonixpharma.com/press-releases/detail/934Just the PR of the deal for $28.7M closing, but you can see the names of some pretty good firms who took part in the raise; "Broadfin Capital LLC, Deerfield Management Company, L.P., Sabby Management LLC and others." Excellent find. I'm excited for where this company will go and personally I hope it dips down a tad more before we start to see signs of life. I don't have the cash on hand now to establish a position as large as I want with 5 major catalyst companies right now that I'm in and a spread of small longs. IF all goes well I will look to add between March and April to have a good position if PPS is attractive. Will probably depend if ATHX tanks 90% or not I am also hoping that it dips lower or hangs around these levels for a bit more as I am hoping for it to be my dark horse for 2015.
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Post by JHam on Feb 16, 2015 19:16:00 GMT
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Post by JHam on Feb 16, 2015 19:37:00 GMT
Slide deck from CEO and Bio Conference last week: content.stockpr.com/tonixpharma/media/437bb08b99d48d6ac1286506d7e8133f.pdfHighlights Upcoming milestones: 2Q 2015 – Begin Phase 3 program in Fibromyalgia 2Q 2015 – Begin Phase 2 study in ETTH 1H 2015 – Update on enrollment, timing of results – Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder - Now have close to $70M cash on hand after the raise two weeks ago - 15.7M o/s - $90M market cap Price of the raise was $5.85, current share price is $5.78, had some pretty good firms who took part in the raise; Broadfin Capital LLC, Deerfield Management Company, L.P., Sabby Management LLC etc... Just to recap, this was a $15 stock a few months ago until it failed P2b for Fibromygalgia. The FDA said that despite the trial failing to meet primary end points, the 30% response rate was in fact significant and gave them the go ahead for P3. I'll likely be adding more on Monday since I think there is a lot of upside, especially at these levels.
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