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Post by JHam on Mar 3, 2015 21:29:06 GMT
Thanks for sharing JHam. I find it odd to envision Dhillon sitting in a meeting emailing you, but I guess all day meetings are pretty boring no matter what your position is within an organization. I know right. I wanted to double check so I sent the following and received a response within 3 minutes: Punit,Thanks for the response. This is very helpful. Just to clarify, the Phase III and registration trial will be the same?Thanks!JHam---Yes, you got it!
Best,
Punit
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Post by sethd023 on Mar 8, 2015 19:13:01 GMT
Damn you're awesome! Love his answer to your last question. Yeah that last bit gave me a lot of clarity. P3 and the registration trial are the same. That makes a lot more sense to me now, as I have been confused as to how they were going to start a registration trial by the end of 2016 if P2b isn't even finished by the end of 2015. P2b starts in 1Q, top-line data sometime next year, wait for the data in the extension trial toward the end of 2016, then go for the P3/registration trial. That makes a lot more sense to me and now I have a better idea of how I am going to play this. I'm curious to hear how you and others plan on playing the next year or so with this stock based on current information (I had been following it last year but have been focused on other things lately). My ideal situation is take ATHX profits later this month and potentially roll some into ONCS, but I'm wondering if you think ONCS will have started to run in anticipation of any upcoming events by early April. I'm also wondering if you expect any real price appreciation this year, or if things might be slow until 2016. I know it's all speculation, but I appreciate your thoughts!
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Post by JHam on Mar 8, 2015 23:40:00 GMT
Yeah that last bit gave me a lot of clarity. P3 and the registration trial are the same. That makes a lot more sense to me now, as I have been confused as to how they were going to start a registration trial by the end of 2016 if P2b isn't even finished by the end of 2015. P2b starts in 1Q, top-line data sometime next year, wait for the data in the extension trial toward the end of 2016, then go for the P3/registration trial. That makes a lot more sense to me and now I have a better idea of how I am going to play this. I'm curious to hear how you and others plan on playing the next year or so with this stock based on current information (I had been following it last year but have been focused on other things lately). My ideal situation is take ATHX profits later this month and potentially roll some into ONCS, but I'm wondering if you think ONCS will have started to run in anticipation of any upcoming events by early April. I'm also wondering if you expect any real price appreciation this year, or if things might be slow until 2016. I know it's all speculation, but I appreciate your thoughts! Seth, l agree and I agree. I think it could also potentially be a slow year. They will start a lot of new trials, but I am not sure if they will have any interim data on any of them in 2015. If I am lucky enough to make some profits on some of my other stocks, then I plan on putting some back into ONCS at these levels. There may not be much price appreciation of the course of this year, but I don't think it will go much lower, give or take 10-15%, than the current share price. I am OK with buying and hanging on at this point with the market cap so low. If they show that they can turn non-Pd-1 responders into responders in P2b, then I think this one will change over night, and I want to be around for that. As long as they have up-listed to the Nasdaq by that point, then I really believe they can have an ADXS-like run-up. Even if they decide to raise cash on the back of that data I think there will still be a very positive market reaction (a-la ADXS).
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Post by sethd023 on Mar 9, 2015 1:18:51 GMT
Thanks JHam, that about echoes what I have been thinking. Although I'm trying to take positions in stocks that have fairly near-term catalysts, it seems like ONCS is near its floor and has the potential to fly under the right conditions. May take a starter position soon and buy more throughout the year!
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Post by RLC on Mar 9, 2015 1:50:37 GMT
Yeah that last bit gave me a lot of clarity. P3 and the registration trial are the same. That makes a lot more sense to me now, as I have been confused as to how they were going to start a registration trial by the end of 2016 if P2b isn't even finished by the end of 2015. P2b starts in 1Q, top-line data sometime next year, wait for the data in the extension trial toward the end of 2016, then go for the P3/registration trial. That makes a lot more sense to me and now I have a better idea of how I am going to play this. I'm curious to hear how you and others plan on playing the next year or so with this stock based on current information (I had been following it last year but have been focused on other things lately). My ideal situation is take ATHX profits later this month and potentially roll some into ONCS, but I'm wondering if you think ONCS will have started to run in anticipation of any upcoming events by early April. I'm also wondering if you expect any real price appreciation this year, or if things might be slow until 2016. I know it's all speculation, but I appreciate your thoughts! I maintain a small position currently even though I agree that there's likely not going to be much near term PPS appreciation. The reason I'm doing this is similar to the reason I'm holding a small position in OCAT, which is that I feel their scientific platforms have immense value and it's just a matter of when, not if this value is eventually realized. We all know that things can come out of left field, completely unexpected and I'd personally hate to be left out of a huge run on a company I had faith in. Assuming you really have conviction about the probability of their eventual success, there are some companies I think it's wise to keep a small stake in without worrying about the day-to-day PPS movements. ONCS is one of those companies in my opinion, as it seems that their product could be the best solution to unlocking the potential of checkpoint inhibitors to the majority of patients. And I agree with JHam, that at current prices the downside risk is minimal. Having said that, I don't think I'm going to be putting serious money to work here until we get closer to seeing some initial data on the Keytruda combo trial, as that is what investors are most interested in. This is one I'm definitely keeping a close eye on and I plan on being in with a substantial position well before that data is released.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 11, 2015 18:21:27 GMT
Down big on heavy volume today. I don't see any news. Any idea what's driving the move lower?
No position in ONCS, but keeping my eye on it.
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Post by RLC on Mar 11, 2015 20:03:23 GMT
Down big on heavy volume today. I don't see any news. Any idea what's driving the move lower? No position in ONCS, but keeping my eye on it. Ouch! They were up a decent amount early today too so that's a bit strange. I couldn't find any obvious reason for the drop, so I guess I'm just going to assume some larger holders decided to move on...
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Post by happyjawa on Mar 11, 2015 21:00:38 GMT
Down big on heavy volume today. I don't see any news. Any idea what's driving the move lower? No position in ONCS, but keeping my eye on it. Roth conference presentation confirmed nothing is happening until Q2. Lot of people jumping ship.
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Post by JHam on Mar 11, 2015 23:33:51 GMT
Down big on heavy volume today. I don't see any news. Any idea what's driving the move lower? No position in ONCS, but keeping my eye on it. Roth conference presentation confirmed nothing is happening until Q2. Lot of people jumping ship. I haven't listened to the call yet, but everyone at the Google Board is going bonkers over this. If it is true, then it would be disappointing. Especially given that the CEO no less than a week ago confirmed with me via email that they were on target to meet all of their timelines.
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Post by happyjawa on Mar 12, 2015 0:35:23 GMT
Roth conference presentation confirmed nothing is happening until Q2. Lot of people jumping ship. I haven't listened to the call yet, but everyone at the Google Board is going bonkers over this. If it is true, then it would be disappointing. Especially given that the CEO no less than a week ago confirmed with me via email that they were on target to meet all of their timelines. I heard the news from the board and went back to bed. I'm going to wait until tomorrow, my day off, to go over all of the news. I'm sitting on my remaining 8k of shares for the time being, so it doesn't change my attitude. Google Board members are calling for Punit's head, though. Can't say I blame them.
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Post by JHam on Mar 12, 2015 3:13:46 GMT
I haven't listened to the call yet, but everyone at the Google Board is going bonkers over this. If it is true, then it would be disappointing. Especially given that the CEO no less than a week ago confirmed with me via email that they were on target to meet all of their timelines. I heard the news from the board and went back to bed. I'm going to wait until tomorrow, my day off, to go over all of the news. I'm sitting on my remaining 8k of shares for the time being, so it doesn't change my attitude. Google Board members are calling for Punit's head, though. Can't say I blame them. Listened to the call and here are my thoughts: - Punit is not the best presenter. Sloppy, lots of ums, aaaas, and sorrys. He speaks like he is in a rush to catch a train and flies over important items. It is difficult to follow and often times unorganized. I have listened to a ton of presentations over the past few months from other companies and when they finish I usually feel like I have a clear understanding of the company and their goals. I don't feel that way with Dhillon and ONCS. - New device(s) that can reach any tumor in the body to be introduced sometime this year. Good news. (More at the bottom) - Extension study data in Q4. Confused about this as he said it is still enrolling. If it is a 48 week dosing period, how can they possibly have full data by the end of the year? There are not even 48 weeks left in the year, and then you need to add in time for data analysis. Maybe they will have data by the end of the year, but as usual, his comments don't really line up with what we know about the trial design. Here is what he said: "Expected to complete enrollment in 2015 and have data." "and have data"? What the hell does that mean? Of course you'll "have" data. What kind of data? Top-line? Interim? - They missed their timelines for trial enrollment. Here is the exact quote from the Roth presentation: "All three studies are expected to initiate enrollment in Q2." That is a change in guidance from the PR announcing the P2b trial: ir.oncosec.com/company-news/detail/1634"This Phase II clinical trial will be conducted as a multicenter Investigator Sponsored Trial (IST), with UCSF and Dr. Alain Algazi as the sponsor. Merck will supply pembrolizumab, and OncoSec will provide electroporation devices and plasmid IL-12. Enrollment is expected to begin in Q1 2015." Make no mistake, as some have pointed out, enrollment officially begins when the first patient is enrolled. Trial initiation is not the same as enrollment. - Triple negative breast to complete in mid 2016 and will report data along the way. What they are looking to show from the trial; 1. Clearly show the conversion from low TILs into high TILs, and 2. Show a systemic response -$30M cash. Enough to complete all current trials - $4.5M burn rate per Q, but will increase slightly - Two major inflection points in the next 12 months; 1. Data from "all" of these trials, and 2. Introducing the new catheter-electrode device called "get anywhere", that can reach any tumor in the body. While I am disappointed that they missed their timelines for enrollment, it is not the end of the world. I am sure they will get the first patient enrolled in Q2 and things will start to move along. The bad part is that now we know that ONCS timelines cannot always be relied on. What really has me scratching my head though, is that no less than a week ago Punit confirmed with me via email that they would meet their enrollment timelines. Either he is a flake or he is BSing. Neither one is good. Nothing has really changed for me about ONCS after listening to this presentation. I still very much like the science, but management leaves a lot to be desired. Nothing told me to rush out and buy the stock (Punit even said Q4 14/Q1 15 will be the next value inflection point). However, I do feel that these are bargain basement prices right now (assuming these trials go as expected) and I don't imagine them dropping too much lower. If it continues to hover in the low $.30s or drop down lower, I may have to buy some again just as a (under) value play.
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Post by JHam on Mar 12, 2015 3:25:14 GMT
Incidentally the above post was originally posted at the ONCS Google board (I rejoined to correct some misinformation being spoken about ATHX) which has several brainwashed idiots making ridiculous claims. Some of it (like the part talking about enrollment vs initiation) was in response to them.
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Post by JHam on Mar 12, 2015 16:22:18 GMT
Well call me crazy, but I just restarted a position in this at $.3313. A very small position I might add. I don't think there are any major catalysts that will move this thing in the near term. But like I said yesterday, if it got low enough I'd think about it. After the big drop yesterday, another 6% drop today. It may not gain much in the next few months, but I am not sure how much lower it is going to go than this. It is almost sub $80M. If it does continue to head south I will probably add small chunks as I believe the science is strong, and most importantly feel fairly confident that there won't be any dilution at least until data is announced from several trials in Q415/Q116. Taking a risk here and don't recommend anyone to follow me
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Post by happyjawa on Mar 12, 2015 17:11:40 GMT
Well call me crazy, but I just restarted a position in this at $.3313. A very small position I might add. I don't think there are any major catalysts that will move this thing in the near term. But like I said yesterday, if it got low enough I'd think about it. After the big drop yesterday, another 6% drop today. It may not gain much in the next few months, but I am not sure how much lower it is going to go than this. It is almost sub $80M. If it does continue to head south I will probably add small chunks as I believe the science is strong, and most importantly feel fairly confident that there won't be any dilution at least until data is announced from several trials in Q415/Q116. Taking a risk here and don't recommend anyone to follow me You're following me now JHam, stupid move! I'm still hoping this thing will run as they start to announce enrollments and future data releases. I realized two months ago that ONCS has me full tilt, so I trust my money there in the long term a lot more than I trust my money elsewhere in the short. I figure if OCAT can run for no reason other than manipulation like it has been for years, so can ONCS.
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Post by JHam on Mar 12, 2015 19:30:59 GMT
Well call me crazy, but I just restarted a position in this at $.3313. A very small position I might add. I don't think there are any major catalysts that will move this thing in the near term. But like I said yesterday, if it got low enough I'd think about it. After the big drop yesterday, another 6% drop today. It may not gain much in the next few months, but I am not sure how much lower it is going to go than this. It is almost sub $80M. If it does continue to head south I will probably add small chunks as I believe the science is strong, and most importantly feel fairly confident that there won't be any dilution at least until data is announced from several trials in Q415/Q116. Taking a risk here and don't recommend anyone to follow me You're following me now JHam, stupid move! I'm still hoping this thing will run as they start to announce enrollments and future data releases. I realized two months ago that ONCS has me full tilt, so I trust my money there in the long term a lot more than I trust my money elsewhere in the short. I figure if OCAT can run for no reason other than manipulation like it has been for years, so can ONCS. Wow. Under $80M MC now.
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Post by happyjawa on Mar 12, 2015 19:41:31 GMT
You're following me now JHam, stupid move! I'm still hoping this thing will run as they start to announce enrollments and future data releases. I realized two months ago that ONCS has me full tilt, so I trust my money there in the long term a lot more than I trust my money elsewhere in the short. I figure if OCAT can run for no reason other than manipulation like it has been for years, so can ONCS. Wow. Under $80M MC now. Yeah. Crushing all lower support. Makes me wonder if Punit was serious when he said he wanted to get rid of retail investors. We're crushing volume levels. Looking like we could pass 4 million.
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Post by JHam on Mar 12, 2015 19:52:47 GMT
Yeah. Crushing all lower support. Makes me wonder if Punit was serious when he said he wanted to get rid of retail investors. We're crushing volume levels. Looking like we could pass 4 million. Yeah it could get even uglier. I am not going to buy any more. Curious to see what transpires tomorrow. I seriously don't have problems at these low levels, but at this rate a new base could form in the high $.20s. Want to see how this shakes out a bit over the next few days.
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Post by happyjawa on Mar 12, 2015 20:09:23 GMT
Yeah. Crushing all lower support. Makes me wonder if Punit was serious when he said he wanted to get rid of retail investors. We're crushing volume levels. Looking like we could pass 4 million. Yeah it could get even uglier. I am not going to buy any more. Curious to see what transpires tomorrow. I seriously don't have problems at these low levels, but at this rate a new base could form in the high $.20s. Want to see how this shakes out a bit over the next few days. Held at .32 for the day, which seems to be the low level of support. I'm still wowed by this volume. 4.5 million. CUR crashed today, and that was one run-up I was considering panic selling ONCS for and playing. It sucks ONCS is down, but I'm glad I held firm instead of making more stupid trades in hopes of recovering some cash. I'll consider this a huge lesson if nothing else.
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Post by terrible on Mar 13, 2015 1:56:30 GMT
I think it's a good move adding more today. While it may not pay off immediately, I think you will see appreciation throughout the year. My plan A was to move some CUR profits back here, but that didn't quite work out. I hope to add some ONCS at these prices soon.
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Post by JHam on Mar 13, 2015 16:04:01 GMT
Just doubled my small position at .$32 and as soon as I did it dropped to $.306, lol. Man, this thing could go sub $.30 by the end of the day. Well done Dhillon.
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