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Post by jckrdu on Dec 2, 2015 15:14:16 GMT
Very small gap left in the chart: $1.71 - $1.73.
I plan to add more if that gap fills. Otherwise, will wait for expected run-up before or after ASH on 12/7. MEIP may not run until they announce 1) they intend to move forward with the Phase 3 for AML, and 2) they announce a partnership to execute Phase 3.
I'm still expecting good news at ASH on 12/7 as the overall median survival rate is greater than 12 months, but the CEO stated they want to see 14-15 months before they decide to move forward with a Phase 3 trial. They may not hit the 14-15 month threshold until 1st QTR 2016.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 2, 2015 15:18:15 GMT
Very small gap left in the chart: $1.71 - $1.73. I plan to add more if that gap fills. Otherwise, will wait for expected run-up before or after ASH on 12/7. MEIP may not run until they announce 1) they intend to move forward with the Phase 3 for AML, and 2) they announce a partnership to execute Phase 3. I'm still expecting good news at ASH on 12/7 as the overall median survival rate is greater than 12 months, but the CEO stated they want to see 14-15 months before they decide to move forward with a Phase 3 trial. They may not hit the 14-15 month threshold until 1st QTR 2016. Gap filled. Just added a bit more at $1.73
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Post by Macgruber on Dec 2, 2015 16:19:25 GMT
Very small gap left in the chart: $1.71 - $1.73. I plan to add more if that gap fills. Otherwise, will wait for expected run-up before or after ASH on 12/7. MEIP may not run until they announce 1) they intend to move forward with the Phase 3 for AML, and 2) they announce a partnership to execute Phase 3. I'm still expecting good news at ASH on 12/7 as the overall median survival rate is greater than 12 months, but the CEO stated they want to see 14-15 months before they decide to move forward with a Phase 3 trial. They may not hit the 14-15 month threshold until 1st QTR 2016. If there is no Phase 3 announcement during ASH do you think it will retrace a bit? I think they are going to be overcautious and not announce anything till OS is well past Azacitidine at 15 months which would make it sometime in march right? Im leaning on waiting to get back in after ASH as I think it will be underwhelming and the stock will retrace. Just thinking out loud here, whats ur thoughts jckrdu? thx
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Post by ignorantsilver on Dec 2, 2015 16:27:21 GMT
i added 5k shares as well at 1.75
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Post by lovie350z on Dec 2, 2015 16:35:09 GMT
Sold my small position for a very small profit this morning.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 2, 2015 18:26:03 GMT
Very small gap left in the chart: $1.71 - $1.73. I plan to add more if that gap fills. Otherwise, will wait for expected run-up before or after ASH on 12/7. MEIP may not run until they announce 1) they intend to move forward with the Phase 3 for AML, and 2) they announce a partnership to execute Phase 3. I'm still expecting good news at ASH on 12/7 as the overall median survival rate is greater than 12 months, but the CEO stated they want to see 14-15 months before they decide to move forward with a Phase 3 trial. They may not hit the 14-15 month threshold until 1st QTR 2016. If there is no Phase 3 announcement during ASH do you think it will retrace a bit? I think they are going to be overcautious and not announce anything till OS is well past Azacitidine at 15 months which would make it sometime in march right? Im leaning on waiting to get back in after ASH as I think it will be underwhelming and the stock will retrace. Just thinking out loud here, whats ur thoughts jckrdu? thx That's certainly possible, which is why I don't have a big position here. Hard to say how the market will react if they announce OS is 13 months at ASH and still moving higher.
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Post by Macgruber on Dec 2, 2015 19:32:45 GMT
If there is no Phase 3 announcement during ASH do you think it will retrace a bit? I think they are going to be overcautious and not announce anything till OS is well past Azacitidine at 15 months which would make it sometime in march right? Im leaning on waiting to get back in after ASH as I think it will be underwhelming and the stock will retrace. Just thinking out loud here, whats ur thoughts jckrdu? thx That's certainly possible, which is why I don't have a big position here. Hard to say how the market will react if they announce OS is 13 months at ASH and still moving higher. Thanks for the input, always appreciate your point of view. GL everyone
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Post by Macgruber on Dec 2, 2015 19:38:45 GMT
Sold my small position for a very small profit this morning. I sold yesterday for a tiny gain too. Im a flip flopper though so may feel froggy after the shareholders meeting tomorrow and jump back in lol. GL
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Post by ignorantsilver on Dec 3, 2015 6:50:41 GMT
Very small gap left in the chart: $1.71 - $1.73. I plan to add more if that gap fills. Otherwise, will wait for expected run-up before or after ASH on 12/7. MEIP may not run until they announce 1) they intend to move forward with the Phase 3 for AML, and 2) they announce a partnership to execute Phase 3. I'm still expecting good news at ASH on 12/7 as the overall median survival rate is greater than 12 months, but the CEO stated they want to see 14-15 months before they decide to move forward with a Phase 3 trial. They may not hit the 14-15 month threshold until 1st QTR 2016. If there is no Phase 3 announcement during ASH do you think it will retrace a bit? I think they are going to be overcautious and not announce anything till OS is well past Azacitidine at 15 months which would make it sometime in march right? Im leaning on waiting to get back in after ASH as I think it will be underwhelming and the stock will retrace. Just thinking out loud here, whats ur thoughts jckrdu? thx That would be an ideal scenario, since it would create an opportunity to pick up some even cheaper shares
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Post by Macgruber on Dec 3, 2015 16:11:49 GMT
per webcast today median OS still not reached in AML. Everything seems on track here
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Post by ignorantsilver on Dec 3, 2015 16:25:28 GMT
Awesome! Love this stock, such a bargain.
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Post by ignorantsilver on Dec 3, 2015 18:57:44 GMT
At this rate they may not reach median OS for another couple years
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 6, 2015 15:04:15 GMT
That's certainly possible, which is why I don't have a big position here. Hard to say how the market will react if they announce OS is 13 months at ASH and still moving higher. Thanks for the input, always appreciate your point of view. GL everyone I added a little more on Friday on the dip.
We didn't see the pre-ASH run-up, so maybe this will run sometime after news is announced. No pre-news run-up lessons the probability of a "sell the news" reaction on Monday. If the OS numbers are positive (should be the case) we may see increased buying in the days/weeks/months ahead in advance of news on how they plan to move forward with Phase 3.
While I can't vouch for all of the information in the below yahoo post (i.e. are his numbers accurate), the below post on Yahoo is sort of how I'm seeing the potential upside with MEIP... ______________________ Thinking of trying to get in Monday morning if OS etc as good as projected. No downside and upside 10X+.
CELGENE makes the other drug used in the clinicals for MEI-004. That other drug, Azacitidine, or "Vidaza", was 15% of CELGENE revenue back in 2012, and 7.5% in 2014. CELGENE market cap is $86.7B.
Vidaza increases OS for AML by 3.9 months, from 6.5 to 10.4 months, but it does not increase your 21.9% chance of being cured of AML. Yet if you add MEIP's Pracinotstat, your chance of being cured doubles from 21.9% to 42%. That seems huge to me. Seems to me that the giant CELGENE needs this drug, badly. Could you imagine trying to sell a drug that does not increase your chance of being cured? In fact, the large study cited in the recent PR's show it actually lowers your chances fo being cured by a tad. though not a significant amount.
Yet Vidaza was 15% of CELGENE's sales in 2012. CELGENE needs Pracinostat. it seems to me that upon approval, Pracinostat is worth about $4.3B to CELGENE. What value then on presentation of these strong results for phase 2? $4.3B/10? Maybe more. Even that would be $430M. If OS is 36.66M shares, as I believe it is after the recent dilution, then Pracinostat alone is worth at least $11.73/share now. And what of the other drug in the pipeline that MEI is so excited about. Seems to me that MEI Pharma is really worth at least $15/share if the data recently presented continues to look as good come Monday morning.
And the stock is currenty selling at cash. Meaning... they have about $53M and no debt. Market cap today is only $52.6M. In other words, the stock is selling at $1.54 share, yet they have $1.55 in cash per share...
No downside, and an upside of 10X or more. WFT? Grand conspiracy to keep this stock off the radar so CELGENE can deal? I don't know.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 7, 2015 13:38:06 GMT
Impressive results. OS 14.3 months and still growing. Plan is to move ahead with Phase 3. ___________________________________ SAN DIEGO, Dec. 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- MEI Pharma, Inc. (Nasdaq: MEIP), an oncology company focused on the clinical development of novel therapies for cancer, today announced positive results from a Phase II study of its investigational drug candidate Pracinostat in combination with azacitidine (marketed as Vidaza®) in elderly patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The results were presented earlier today at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting in Orlando. A copy of the presentation is now available at www.meipharma.com. According to the oral presentation by principal investigator Dr. Guillermo Garcia-Manero, MD Anderson Cancer Center, 28 of the 50 patients in the study (56%) achieved the primary endpoint of complete response (CR) plus complete response with incomplete blood count recovery (CRi) plus morphologic leukemia-free state (MLFS), including 21 patients (42%) who achieved a CR. Notably, 19 of the 21 patients who achieved a CR are still alive with a 100% one-year survival rate among all CR patients, indicating a correlation between CR and survival with this low intensity therapy. Median overall survival for all 50 patients in the study has not been reached, with 28 patients still living and a median observation time of 14.3 months.investor.meipharma.com/2015-12-07-MEI-Pharma-Announces-Positive-Results-from-Phase-II-Study-of-Pracinostat-in-Acute-Myeloid-Leukemia-Plans-to-Initiate-Phase-III-Registration-Study
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Post by Yelk on Dec 7, 2015 13:41:42 GMT
Confused why price isn't ripping here. Almost looks weak. Should be interesting to see where it goes.
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Post by Yelk on Dec 7, 2015 13:43:02 GMT
Results like this that don't go up very fast scare me lol, something couldn't have seen in news and flips red like CUR.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 7, 2015 13:45:31 GMT
Confused why price isn't ripping here. Almost looks weak. Should be interesting to see where it goes. Agree. Some are selling news. Need to give it a day or 2 IMO.
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Post by Yelk on Dec 7, 2015 13:55:09 GMT
Some of the best bounces are misunderstood news, stocks that have history of fading. Wonder how far this could go if it really did start ripping.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 7, 2015 13:59:37 GMT
Some of the best bounces are misunderstood news, stocks that have history of fading. Wonder how far this could go if it really did start ripping. Watch for breakout if it starts trading over $2.10. This could move to the $3-$4ish range over the next month as everyone understands the implications. It was trading in that range and heading even higher earlier this year before they announced the Phase 2 results.
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Post by harleyquinn on Dec 7, 2015 14:22:51 GMT
Have a very small (bookmark) position here and had planned on adding this AM on dip. Oh well, I'll take a tiny profit over a loss...
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