|
|
Post by RLC on Aug 1, 2016 16:20:59 GMT
Volume here is through the roof. Less than 3 hours into the trading day and over 2 million shares traded. Daily avg volume (10-day) is 84k shares so we're looking at over 25x avg volume. Pretty damn impressive!
|
|
|
|
Post by RLC on Aug 1, 2016 19:44:39 GMT
IMO, market wants to know how they intend to pay for the upcoming large (500 patient Phase 3 Prac trial), plus the 2 other new trials starting Q2 this year.
Hopefully, they'll announce positive median overall survival (MOS) for Prac to get the pps higher before raising any capital. That would seem to make the most sense, as raising capital before MOS is announced would make no sense, as they're sitting on $50M cash on the balance sheet and shouldn't be desperate to raise cash before announcing the very positive MOS news.
Partnership news for any of those 3 trials would be great.
They may be working to finalize the Phase 3 Prac trial design with the FDA (SPA would be great) before announcing a partnership. We should be hearing news soon on path forward.
Bumping this post back from April.
Bolding above still in play... market waiting to hear on how they're going to fund the trials before we see a major move, IMO...
On second bolded sentence, that's still my belief: they were working to finalize the Phase 3 trial design before announcing a partnership. With Phase 3 design finalized and Breakthrough in-hand, it seems like now's the time to partner. We'll see.
Could see a pullback if we don't get timely follow-on news.
Two additional trials were guided to start in Q2 2016 and are past due for news.
Great thoughts! Agree with all. This is one of my larger positions and I probably shouldn't have, BUT I couldn't help myself.... bought more at $1.44  |
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Aug 3, 2016 1:56:11 GMT
Added more today at $1.40 and $1.45.
The recent PR is interesting in that it really contains 3 pieces of substantial news: 1) Great clinical results - Median overall survival of 19.1 months and 42% complete response rate (roughly twice as good as Celgene's drug alone), 2) Agreement reached with FDA on Phase 3 design, and 3) Breakthrough Designation.
They went 3 months without a PR. It sure seems that if they wanted to, they easily could have split the 1 PR into 3 well-timed PRs to get the pps higher. I'm not sure what to make of it, but my initial thought was that some type of larger deal/partnership is being orchestrated, and its in the interests of those funding/participating in the future of MEIP to not pump the company until everything is finalized and announced.
Or, it could be that they just aren't that good at promoting their company and accomplishments.
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Aug 4, 2016 14:36:41 GMT
Flag pattern on 3 month and 1 year charts.
If it breaks out from the flag, I'm not expecting much of a move until Phase 3 funding approach becomes clear.
|
|
|
|
Post by selluwud on Aug 5, 2016 14:54:56 GMT
Any news here? Volume is picking up
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Aug 5, 2016 15:03:55 GMT
Flag pattern on 3 month and 1 year charts. If it breaks out from the flag, I'm not expecting much of a move until Phase 3 funding approach becomes clear. Broke out from the flag. Nice volume as Selluwud noted.
The prior flag pattern was pointing to a move to $1.55-$160ish. Let's see if volume can take it higher. Need Vivo to stop selling.
I like looking at the 3-year chart of MEIP. You'll see 2 years ago the stock was trading at $6+ with just about the same number of shares, and pulled all the way back under $2 when the initial trial results didn't meet expectations. Two years later, that same product (for a different indication) just got Breakthrough Designation. IMO, new baseline should be back to a $2.00+ pps at a minimum.
Need to hear news on how they're going to fund the trials. Three options (2 of which will be great)....
Buyout ... Partnership... or Dilution
|
|
dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87 
|
Post by dave on Aug 5, 2016 21:21:37 GMT
I read one analyst who commented that P3 could cost 30 million...seems like we're not far maybe less depending on what fda has agreed to. Say they did dilute at 1.50 maybe 10 million shares how would that be any worse than getting a partner who's prob gonna take at least half the profits?
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Aug 6, 2016 15:23:46 GMT
I read one analyst who commented that P3 could cost 30 million...seems like we're not far maybe less depending on what fda has agreed to. Say they did dilute at 1.50 maybe 10 million shares how would that be any worse than getting a partner who's prob gonna take at least half the profits? $30M seems low for a large Phase 3 trial, but who knows.
Raising cash with 10 million shares would be 30% dilution and likely tank the stock, but may be the better longer-term approach to maximize shareholder value over the next 2-4 years. I agree management could go that route... it just depends on how they want to move forward. With 3 trials on the near-term horizon, I think some type of a partnership is more likely as the way they'll move forward, especially given interest in Celator's (CPXX) AML drug.
The below recent article was written on June 2, 2016... before MEIP got BreakThrough Designation, and gives the history and makes the case for MEIP. It's a must read for anyone interested in MEIP. In light of what happened to CPXX, risk/reward still very favorable at the current $1.61 pps.
Read the recent comments at the end of the article as well, as people continue to discuss MEIP after BT was announced. One comment made indicated that (per a filing by CPXX) 41 companies signed non-disclosure agreements and 4 companies made bids to acquire CPXX. JAZZ was the highest bidder. I'm sure many of those companies became familiar with MEIP as they were doing their due diligence on CPXX. Interest to strike a partnership (or buyout MEIP) can have only increased since BT was announced.... especially with CPXX now locked up by JAZZ.
One final point: At a pps of $1.61 with 34.2M shares outstanding, current market cap is $55M. They have close to that in cash ($40-$45M) which means the market is essentially valuing the pipeline of a company with BT moving into Phase 3, at close to zero.
seekingalpha.com/article/3979392-ideas-next-celator
|
|
|
|
Post by RLC on Aug 8, 2016 0:43:47 GMT
I read one analyst who commented that P3 could cost 30 million...seems like we're not far maybe less depending on what fda has agreed to. Say they did dilute at 1.50 maybe 10 million shares how would that be any worse than getting a partner who's prob gonna take at least half the profits? I know what you're saying, but it really seems like the factor not being considered here is time horizon. Many investors don't like having their money tied up in one company for too long. While over the long term (say the next 5-10 years), it might benefit the company and shareholders to go solo.... the safe and quick money comes with partnerships (or a buyout). |
|
|
|
Post by RLC on Aug 8, 2016 12:04:17 GMT
MEI Pharma lands major deal for cancer drug PracinostatSan Diego biotech to get $20 million near-term, up to $444 million more in global pact
www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/aug/08/mei-pharma-helsinn/San Diego's MEI Pharma is to get $20 million in near-term cash and potentially hundreds millions more under a cancer drug partnership with Helsinn Group. The deal licenses MEI Pharma's Pracinostat to the Swiss drug company under an exclusive worldwide agreement to develop and commercialize the drug for acute myeloid leukemia and possibly other conditions. Pracinostat has finished a Phase 2 trial for acute myeloid leukemia and is ready for Phase 3 trials, said Daniel Gold, MEI's president and CEO. Those interested in the upcoming Phase 3 trial can check for it at the clinicaltrials.gov registry, Gold said. It's projected to begin in the first quarter of 2017. MEI Pharma will get $15 million upfront, and $5 million more when the first patient is treated in the upcoming Phase 3 trial. The deal has been approved by the boards of both companies. Destum Partners advised MEI Pharma on the transaction. Nearly 20,000 new cases of AML will be reported this year, according to the National Cancer Institute, and more than 10,400 people will die of it. About 25 percent of patients survive for three or more years, and that rate decreases with age. Pracinostat was given a Breakthrough Therapy designation last week by the FDA, when used with azacitidine. The designation covers use on newly diagnosed AML patients who are 75 or older, or who are unfit for intensive chemotherapy required for a bone marrow transplant. Expanded uses The Phase 3 trial will be open to anyone 18 or older meets the criteria, Gold said. A large proportion of those diagnosed with AML are at or close to the cutoff age anyway, and would not be recommended for transplant chemotherapy. Up to $444 million more can accrue to publicly traded MEI Pharma if it meets development milestones, as well as royalties if the drug makes it to market. Privately held Helsinn specializes in cancer care. The companies are exploring how to test Pracinostat with azacitidine on high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome, a low-grade cancer that can develop into AML, or be fatal on its own. In both diseases, abnormal blood cells crowd out normal ones. Symptoms of both include pallor due to anemia, fatigue, shortness of breath when active, and unusual bleeding. The trial for high-risk MDS is expected to begin in the first half of 2017. As with the AML trial, the information will be posted at clinicaltrials.gov. Helsinn is to make a $5 million equity investment in MEI Pharma when the first patient is dosed in that trial. Gold said Helsinn's strengths in the oncology market make it the best partner to develop Pracinostat. For example, Helsinn sells a leading anti-nausea drug, Aloxi, often used by those on azacitidine. Pracinostat belongs to a class of drugs called histone deacetylase inhibitors, Gold said. These drugs modify histones, the proteins that package the long molecules of DNA into more compact structures. Azacitidine inhibits a process called methylation that controls how genes function. Epigenetics in cancer Methylation doesn't alter the underlying genetic sequence, but adds methyl groups on top of it; this causes what is known as an epigenetic effect. When DNA is wrapped up by histones, it can't produce RNA, which carries the genetic code into the cell to be transcribed. These processes are essential to human life and carried out all the time. But when they occur abnormally, they can lead to cancer and other diseases. In combination, the two drugs work together to suppress abnormal genetic activity in bone marrow, Gold said. The role of in cancer of mutations is well-established. It's increasingly appreciated that epigenetics, which acts without mutations, also plays a role in cancer, Gold said. "What's been shown in many cancers is you have these epigenetic modifications which oftentimes result in the transcription of tumor suppressor genes being suppressed, to help the tumor continue to grow," Gold said. "The idea is you want to open the DNA and allow the transcription of these important regulatory elements, to help turn off the tumor cells."
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Aug 8, 2016 12:12:48 GMT
Woohoo! I'm 70% allocated in MEIP.  |
|
|
|
Post by RLC on Aug 8, 2016 12:18:31 GMT
Woohoo! I'm 70% allocated in MEIP. Congrats Jim! And thank you again! You are a big reason I had recently upped my position in MEIP. You were spot on man... |
|
|
|
Post by harleyquinn on Aug 8, 2016 12:24:39 GMT
Woohoo! I'm 70% allocated in MEIP. Of course you are! Nice work Jck! |
|
|
|
Post by selluwud on Aug 8, 2016 12:29:43 GMT
Congrats to Jck. I picked up some shares a while back following the posts here that made sense and will be rewarded for it. thanks.
|
|
|
|
Post by JHam on Aug 8, 2016 12:32:50 GMT
MEI Pharma lands major deal for cancer drug PracinostatSan Diego biotech to get $20 million near-term, up to $444 million more in global pact
www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/aug/08/mei-pharma-helsinn/San Diego's MEI Pharma is to get $20 million in near-term cash and potentially hundreds millions more under a cancer drug partnership with Helsinn Group. The deal licenses MEI Pharma's Pracinostat to the Swiss drug company under an exclusive worldwide agreement to develop and commercialize the drug for acute myeloid leukemia and possibly other conditions. Pracinostat has finished a Phase 2 trial for acute myeloid leukemia and is ready for Phase 3 trials, said Daniel Gold, MEI's president and CEO. Those interested in the upcoming Phase 3 trial can check for it at the clinicaltrials.gov registry, Gold said. It's projected to begin in the first quarter of 2017. MEI Pharma will get $15 million upfront, and $5 million more when the first patient is treated in the upcoming Phase 3 trial. The deal has been approved by the boards of both companies. Destum Partners advised MEI Pharma on the transaction. Nearly 20,000 new cases of AML will be reported this year, according to the National Cancer Institute, and more than 10,400 people will die of it. About 25 percent of patients survive for three or more years, and that rate decreases with age. Pracinostat was given a Breakthrough Therapy designation last week by the FDA, when used with azacitidine. The designation covers use on newly diagnosed AML patients who are 75 or older, or who are unfit for intensive chemotherapy required for a bone marrow transplant. Expanded uses The Phase 3 trial will be open to anyone 18 or older meets the criteria, Gold said. A large proportion of those diagnosed with AML are at or close to the cutoff age anyway, and would not be recommended for transplant chemotherapy. Up to $444 million more can accrue to publicly traded MEI Pharma if it meets development milestones, as well as royalties if the drug makes it to market. Privately held Helsinn specializes in cancer care. The companies are exploring how to test Pracinostat with azacitidine on high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome, a low-grade cancer that can develop into AML, or be fatal on its own. In both diseases, abnormal blood cells crowd out normal ones. Symptoms of both include pallor due to anemia, fatigue, shortness of breath when active, and unusual bleeding. The trial for high-risk MDS is expected to begin in the first half of 2017. As with the AML trial, the information will be posted at clinicaltrials.gov. Helsinn is to make a $5 million equity investment in MEI Pharma when the first patient is dosed in that trial. Gold said Helsinn's strengths in the oncology market make it the best partner to develop Pracinostat. For example, Helsinn sells a leading anti-nausea drug, Aloxi, often used by those on azacitidine. Pracinostat belongs to a class of drugs called histone deacetylase inhibitors, Gold said. These drugs modify histones, the proteins that package the long molecules of DNA into more compact structures. Azacitidine inhibits a process called methylation that controls how genes function. Epigenetics in cancer Methylation doesn't alter the underlying genetic sequence, but adds methyl groups on top of it; this causes what is known as an epigenetic effect. When DNA is wrapped up by histones, it can't produce RNA, which carries the genetic code into the cell to be transcribed. These processes are essential to human life and carried out all the time. But when they occur abnormally, they can lead to cancer and other diseases. In combination, the two drugs work together to suppress abnormal genetic activity in bone marrow, Gold said. The role of in cancer of mutations is well-established. It's increasingly appreciated that epigenetics, which acts without mutations, also plays a role in cancer, Gold said. "What's been shown in many cancers is you have these epigenetic modifications which oftentimes result in the transcription of tumor suppressor genes being suppressed, to help the tumor continue to grow," Gold said. "The idea is you want to open the DNA and allow the transcription of these important regulatory elements, to help turn off the tumor cells." Wow, congrats everyone!! |
|
|
|
Post by selluwud on Aug 8, 2016 12:33:34 GMT
Woohoo! I'm 70% allocated in MEIP. Whats a good plan for cashing in Jck? I know you have one. |
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Aug 8, 2016 12:42:13 GMT
Woohoo! I'm 70% allocated in MEIP. Whats a good plan for cashing in Jck? I know you have one. Hey Selluwud,
I'm going to see how it trades today, but right now I'm not planning on selling any until $5ish. Some thoughts...
It's currently trading at $2.30ish (up almost 50%). That's a market cap of about $75M.
But, they now have close to $70M cash on the balance sheet, which means at $2.30ish they're still only trading at cash... with their Phase 3 trial paid for and $444M in milestone payments coming.
IMO, $4-$6ish is more reasonable. I'm not going to sell any until I see $5ish (at least $4), which would be a $170M market cap. With $70M cash on hand, that gives a $100M valuation to the pipeline, which still seems low to me.
They'll be some selling/profit taking early today. I'm hoping it trends up in the days/weeks ahead to where I think it should be valued.
|
|
|
|
Post by selluwud on Aug 8, 2016 12:48:47 GMT
Whats a good plan for cashing in Jck? I know you have one. Hey Selluwud,
I'm going to see how it trades today, but right now I'm not planning on selling any until $5ish. Some thoughts...
It's currently trading at $2.30ish (up almost 50%). That's a market cap of about $75M.
But, they now have close to $70M cash on the balance sheet, which means at $2.30ish they're still only trading at cash... with their Phase 3 trial paid for and $444M in milestone payments coming.
IMO, $4-$6ish is more reasonable. I'm not going to sell any until I see $5ish (at least $4), which would be a $170M market cap. With $70M cash on hand, that gives a $100M valuation to the pipeline, which still seems low to me.
They'll be some selling/profit taking early today. I'm hoping it trends up in the days/weeks ahead to where I think it should be valued.
thanks for your insight. Once the old time baggers sell out today to get their money back, it should settle into a nice steady increase, hit a high, and settle into a new trading range. Maybe like ADXS is going now. Great call on your part, enjoy your soon to be profits. |
|
|
|
Post by lovie350z on Aug 8, 2016 13:18:05 GMT
Nice!! Congrats fellas, I just missed the boat. Will watch how it trades this week
|
|
|
|
Post by actcfan on Aug 8, 2016 13:26:50 GMT
Woohoo! I'm 70% allocated in MEIP. Congrats jck and all holders! |
|
