Athersys - Continue the Discussion

Jan 14, 2015 1:36:13 GMT stemwinder said:

Yes, a couple or three weeks prior to the UC results he appeared on this pumpomercial: 

www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/12523883/athersys-ceo-trial-results-will-prove-stock-surge-sustainable.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1

I have to admit that the guy is good at what he does, which is get excited about Multistem. I almost get physically sick when I hear newbies talk about how excited Gil is about 'whatever'. He can turn it on a the drop of a tube of Brylcreem.

You mention that you are just going by "what the data has shown so far in stroke". What has the data shown in stroke? Has there been any stroke data published? I am not aware of any. I see a lot of speculation about some Doc saying something possibly went well somewhere, though its not clear if he is talking about Multistem, or some procedure they do at the hospital.

You also say "based on how the science works". How does the science work? I'm not sure that is even clear to Athersys. Some people talk about the action of Multistem on the spleen, and that it 'possibly' reduces the amount of inflammation in the brain post stroke. But I don't  know if this is proven science in humans by any means. Even if it does have an impact on the spleen, is that going to be beneficial to a stroke patient? I just don't know. It's all kind of a crap shoot.

You talk about the run-up prior to results. There may well be a continuation of the rise we have seen from the low $1.20's. And you may be able to time it so you get out prior to the beans being spilled. Two points to consider though:

1. There are a lot of baggies who got sucked in in the high 3/low 4's, who stick pins in voodoo dolls of Athersys management and want to get out when this gets a bit higher to a respectable level. Will it get to $4 with the overhead resistance? Who knows.

2. One thing that sucked with the UC data dump is people knew it was coming but not the exact date. Punters woke up one morning to the PR from hell. There was no for-warning. They just put it out there. Hopefully they do a better job with the stroke data and give people time to position themselves appropriately.     

I see Gil as a more educated, polished version of Rabin. These skanky little biotechs have a lot in common IMO.

Some information and thoughts in response to the bolded above regarding Multistem efficacy...

1.  Of course Multistem's treatment for stroke is not "proven in humans"... that's why they did a Phase 2 trial.  The results of that trial will provide information on Multistem as a potential treatment for stroke.  Depending on the results, a Phase 3 trial in the US will be done where they may modify the dosing amount and frequency, and be able to better target the type of stroke patients that are more apt to benefit.  No one ever claimed Multistem was "proven" to work in humans.  (The closest Athersys came was BJ's statement yesterday where he expressed confidence and said they believe they're going to have a "significant effect" in stroke).  Based on the preclinical data, there's a very good chance he's correct.  More on that below...

2.  Preclinical data for Multistem in the animal models was very impressive.  Anyone can go to their website and look at the past PRs and research reports.  The question the Phase 2 trial will answer is "Did those impressive results in treated animals translate to humans?".  Answer will come in about 60 days.

3.  Methods of Action of Multistem on Stroke -  There's all sorts of information on the Athersys website.  BJ's presentation yesterday provided a very good summary of the methods of action on stroke which includes 3 different mechanisms 1) preventing the inflammatory response which kicks off the cascading impacts of tissue loss in the brain, 2) promoting repair, and 3) protecting still healthy tissue from further damage.

4.  MultiStem has shown preliminary efficacy for other diseases including Heart Attack and GVHD - While the methods of action are somewhat different than stroke, there is good data on the ATHX website on the positive safety and efficacy seen in those 2 Phase 1 trials.  For the AMI (heart attack) trial there are some common methods of action also in play for stroke regarding reducing inflammation.  For AMI, they did a 1 year follow-up study on the treated patients and found that efficacy/improved heart function persisted 1 year later.  Point is, there is Phase 1 data out there on Multistem showing efficacy.

5.  Preclinical Results for Multistem versus tpa - About a month ago, someone on yahoo posted the preclinical results for tpa (the only FDA approved treatment for stroke) and compared it to the preclinical results that Multistem showed for stroke.  Multistem's results were on par or better than what tpa achieved in the preclinical models.  IMO, that was a pretty impressive and encouraging comparison as tpa got FDA approval.  Multistem will not be competing with tpa... its looking to offer solutions to those who can't get tpa in the 3-4 hour window.

6.  Results from Other Countries on Stroke using MSC Cells Should Not be Factored In to Anyone's Thinking - There's a lot of information posted on yahoo on clinical trials being done in other countries using MSC cells for stroke.  Some of these trials have reported very positive results.  Because the cells Athersys is using (MAPCs) are precursors and similar to MSCs, some yahoo posters are trying to claim that Athersys will have the same results.  While I do think those studies/results using MSCs are interesting, I discount them as IMO there's not enough credible information there to draw any conclusions on Athersys' pending stroke results.

The above are some of my thoughts, and in no way claim that ATHX is going to hit a homerun with their Phase 2 stroke results.  But - per my previous posts - based on all the information out there and the preclinical results, I do believe they'll see some type of an efficacy signal somewhere across the new 3 broad ways they'll be measuring results, and that has a good chance (60%+ IMO) to translate into "probable efficacy" and conditional approval as defined by the new legislation in Japan. 

If that rapid commercialization scenario in Japan plays out, Athersys - with an allogenic solution that can be scaled up quickly at $25k+ per dose - will be valued much higher than the current $150 million market cap and $1.80ish pps. 

I'm posting on ATHX so people understand the opportunity that's unfolding.   It may not happen, but even a small $5k or $10k investment in Athersys that is held through results could have a big payoff later in 2015.  Very favorable risk/reward profile, especially at current prices with the pre-stroke data run-up still in-play.

GLTA.

Jan 15, 2015 19:22:08 GMT jckrdu said:

Support in the mid $1.80s didn't hold.  Now re-testing support in the low $1.80s.  Bigger bids are surfacing in the low $1.80s... hope it holds.

Volume is relatively low, so while it could still consolidate lower, I'm not all that concerned. 

Need news.

Support at $1.80 held, for today anyway

Nice little surge of volume at the close was a good sign.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

GLTA.

Jan 16, 2015 21:08:55 GMT jckrdu said:

A good day.  Tested the recent low at $1.78, and then gradually moved up. 

Nice to see it close near the high of the day on another late day volume surge into the close.  Consolidation at current levels is setting ATHX up good for the next leg up.

Good 3 day weekend all.

Take a look at the ATHX 3 month chart. For those that are interested in technical analysis (TA), it looks to me like a pretty clear flag or pennant pattern is forming. Below is some more information. Bolding is mine. With regard to the last paragraph below, ATHX's prior move was from let's say $1.30 to $2.00.  If future trading does follow the typical flag pattern, a .70 increase (the distance of the prior move) from here ($1.80-ish) would be the target price sometime relatively soon after the breakout we're hoping to see.  GLTA.
_____________________________________

The flag and pennant patterns are two continuation patterns that closely resemble each other, differing only in their shape during the pattern's consolidation period. This is the reason the terms flag and pennant are often used interchangeably. A flag is a rectangular shape, while the pennant looks more like a triangle.

These two patterns are formed when there is a sharp price movement followed by generally sideways price movement, which is the flag or pennant. The pattern is complete when there is a price breakout in the same direction of the initial sharp price movement. The following move will see a similarly sharp move in the same direction as the prior sharp move. The complete move of the chart pattern - from the first sharp move to the last sharp move - is referred to as the flag pole.

The flag or pennant is considered to be flying at half-mast, as the distance of the initial price movement is thought to be roughly equal to the proceeding price move. The reason these patterns form is that after a large price movement, the market consolidates, or pauses, before resuming the initial trend.

The Flag
The flag pattern forms what looks like a rectangle. The rectangle is formed by two parallel trendlines that act as support and resistance for the price until the price breaks out. In general, the flag will not be perfectly flat but will have its trendlines sloping.

In general, the slope of the flag should move in the opposite direction of the initial sharp price movement; so if the initial movement were up, the flag should be downward sloping.

The buy or sell signal is formed once the price breaks through the support or resistance level, with the trend continuing in the prior direction. This breakthrough should be on heavier volume to improve the signal of the chart pattern.

While the construct of the pause in the trend is different for the flag and pennant, the attributes of the chart patterns themselves are similar. It is vital that the price movement prior to the flag or pennant be a strong, sharp move.

The volume, as with most breakout signals, should be seen as strong during the breakout to confirm the signal. Upon breakout, the initial price objective is equal to the distance of the prior move added to the breakout point. For example, if a prior sharp up movement was from $30 to $40, then the resulting price objective from a price breakout of $38 would be $48 ($38+$10).

www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp