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Post by JHam on Jan 23, 2015 11:25:01 GMT
Good news on the grant. Any kind of non-dilutive funding is appreciated  I am probably done buying ATHX, unless it goes back down below $1.70 again. Currently represents 40% of my portfolio. |
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Post by selluwud on Jan 23, 2015 13:45:50 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 23, 2015 13:52:24 GMT
I really want to buy more at these levels... hmmm suprised so bearish today. -3.5% Yelk - Good luck with however you play it. While ATHX could certainly retrace, my reading of the tea leaves says its heading higher pretty soon for reasons stated in my prior posts. The only thing I'll add is to take a look at the 3 month chart: ATHX has been trading/consolidating in the $1.80 to $2.00 ish range for the past 3-4 weeks. Over the last week or so its started consolidating at the higher end of that range. To me, it looks like a breakout from this range is imminent.
Of course I could be wrong, so good luck.
IMO, next leg up will be to $2.15-ish. Once its breaks through that resistance there's some resistance at $2.30 and then $2.50 ish.
Note I sent to friends and family this morning.... ______________________
All,
Pretty much as expected with stroke results coming soon, the analysts are starting to take a closer look and are beginning to raise their pps targets...link below. IMO, ATHX is poised to breakout of this consolidated trading pattern from $1.80 to $2.00-ish over the past few weeks. Maybe this is the news that will start the move to the next leg up.
jck
Maxim Group analyst Jason Kolbert reiterated a Buy rating and raised his price target on Athersys (NASDAQ: ATHX) to $9.00 (from $7.00)
Kolbert highlights:
Athersys will receive $3M in non-dilutive funding from the United Kingdom-based "Cell Therapy Catapult" non-profit center to fund a phase IIa trial of MultiStem in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARDS patients suffer from widespread lung inflammation that can often lead to death.
Expanding MultiStem to ARDS shows the plasticity of these cells beyond stroke due to their capacity to both alter the immune response and support tissue regeneration.
Athersys is closing in on a major milestone with stroke data from the MultiStem phase II trial coming in 1Q15. Athersys may have found the sweet spot in stroke treatment timing (24 hours to <2 days). The trial is completely enrolled across 27 U.S. sites.
Our conclusion: Good data in stroke should be transforming for Athersys and could drive a valuation inflection for investors. Moving MultiStem to the clinic for ARDS with non-dilutive funding represents additional upside.
We extend our model from 2018 to 2024 and discount back at 30% in addition to a 75% risk to our therapeutic model to reflect the early stage of development
www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Athersys+(ATHX)+PT+Lifted+to+$9+at+Maxim+Group/10188623.html
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Post by RLC on Jan 23, 2015 14:02:51 GMT
exciting but I've learned to never put much thought into a Maxim PT  |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 23, 2015 14:06:54 GMT
RLC - Agree, I don't pay much attention to those price targets either. But, that doesn't mean the market won't react to it... especially after 2-3 weeks of consolidation. |
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Post by hophead on Jan 23, 2015 14:49:44 GMT
LOL Kolbert from Maxim. That dude is a joke. However I'm still accumulating here with the rest of you guys.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 23, 2015 14:52:51 GMT
The tension is building in this stock... at any slight news it is going to pop. Maxim makes me smile It's like morning comedy! |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 26, 2015 13:59:53 GMT
Good chance (IMO) ATHX breaks out of the recent trading range sometime this week.
To get an idea of what's possible for ATHX on positive Phase 2 stroke results, take a look at the 1 year chart for ACHN. ACHN was trading in the $2s before they announced positive Phase 2 results, and is now at $16. Like most biotechs, positive Phase 2 results is when the market starts assigning more value. ACHN has run from the $2s ($200 million market cap) to $16 ($1.6B market cap) over the past 6 months after they announced positive Phase 2 results. They don't have any trials farther along than Phase 2. Their capital structure (100 million shares issued) is similar to ATHX which actually has less shares out at 78 million.
Upside on positive Phase 2 results for ATHX is much better than ACHN's run, as ATHX will likely commercialize in Japan on positive results, which IMO will yield a market cap of $2B at a minimum 6-8 months after positive results are announced.
Risk/reward still favorable for ATHX at $2, as the stroke data run up should get us at least to the $3s (IMO) before the end of March.
I'll post more on the risk/reward ratio as ATHX fills the gap over $2.70, and gets closer to $3.... as the risk/reward profile will change the higher it moves before results are announced.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 26, 2015 15:22:33 GMT
I am seeing considerable adjustment in volumes as well. We should be at 400K by 1 hour in - short spike to 6% a min ago. Its all over the place.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 26, 2015 15:24:40 GMT
Wow never mind 500K 2 minutes later  |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 26, 2015 15:25:56 GMT
I am seeing considerable adjustment in volumes as well. We should be at 400K by 1 hour in - short spike to 6% a min ago. Its all over the place. Needs to break thru the resistance at $2.15ish. Next resistance is at $2.30ish.
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Post by dayanand33 on Jan 26, 2015 15:27:36 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 26, 2015 16:00:46 GMT
Good chance (IMO) ATHX breaks out of the recent trading range sometime this week. To get an idea of what's possible for ATHX on positive Phase 2 stroke results, take a look at the 1 year chart for ACHN. ACHN was trading in the $2s before they announced positive Phase 2 results, and is now at $16. Like most biotechs, positive Phase 2 results is when the market starts assigning more value. ACHN has run from the $2s ($200 million market cap) to $16 ($1.6B market cap) over the past 6 months after they announced positive Phase 2 results. They don't have any trials farther along than Phase 2. Their capital structure (100 million shares issued) is similar to ATHX which actually has less shares out at 78 million. Upside on positive Phase 2 results for ATHX is much better than ACHN's run, as ATHX will likely commercialize in Japan on positive results, which IMO will yield a market cap of $2B at a minimum 6-8 months after positive results are announced. Risk/reward still favorable for ATHX at $2, as the stroke data run up should get us at least to the $3s (IMO) before the end of March. I'll post more on the risk/reward ratio as ATHX fills the gap over $2.70, and gets closer to $3.... as the risk/reward profile will change the higher it moves before results are announced. Broke out of the consolidating flag pattern on high volume this morning. From a technical analysis perspective (read my prior posts from last week on what we should expect to see once it broke out), its pointing to a continued move higher to $2.50 to $3 range sometime over the next few days to weeks. GLTA. (I'm holding all my shares until we get closer to $3.) |
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Post by selluwud on Jan 26, 2015 16:21:37 GMT
Good chance (IMO) ATHX breaks out of the recent trading range sometime this week. To get an idea of what's possible for ATHX on positive Phase 2 stroke results, take a look at the 1 year chart for ACHN. ACHN was trading in the $2s before they announced positive Phase 2 results, and is now at $16. Like most biotechs, positive Phase 2 results is when the market starts assigning more value. ACHN has run from the $2s ($200 million market cap) to $16 ($1.6B market cap) over the past 6 months after they announced positive Phase 2 results. They don't have any trials farther along than Phase 2. Their capital structure (100 million shares issued) is similar to ATHX which actually has less shares out at 78 million. Upside on positive Phase 2 results for ATHX is much better than ACHN's run, as ATHX will likely commercialize in Japan on positive results, which IMO will yield a market cap of $2B at a minimum 6-8 months after positive results are announced. Risk/reward still favorable for ATHX at $2, as the stroke data run up should get us at least to the $3s (IMO) before the end of March. I'll post more on the risk/reward ratio as ATHX fills the gap over $2.70, and gets closer to $3.... as the risk/reward profile will change the higher it moves before results are announced. Broke out of the consolidating flag pattern on high volume this morning. From a technical analysis perspective (read my prior posts from last week on what we should expect to see once it broke out), its pointing to a continued move higher to $2.50 to $3 range sometime over the next few days to weeks. GLTA. (I'm holding all my shares until we get closer to $3.) Jim, I do appreciate your technical analysis on this. I am still holding shares here from the previous run up and bust on UC results. I may sell when over 2.75 to recoup those losses. I have since bought a new position below 1.50 and will hold those through the stroke results. I am reluctant to be overconfident, but the UC trials were more about safety with the effectiveness being somewhat challenging because of the advanced state of the trial subjects. |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 26, 2015 16:49:17 GMT
Broke out of the consolidating flag pattern on high volume this morning. From a technical analysis perspective (read my prior posts from last week on what we should expect to see once it broke out), its pointing to a continued move higher to $2.50 to $3 range sometime over the next few days to weeks. GLTA. (I'm holding all my shares until we get closer to $3.) Jim, I do appreciate your technical analysis on this. I am still holding shares here from the previous run up and bust on UC results. I may sell when over 2.75 to recoup those losses. I have since bought a new position below 1.50 and will hold those through the stroke results. I am reluctant to be overconfident, but the UC trials were more about safety with the effectiveness being somewhat challenging because of the advanced state of the trial subjects. Good post Selluwud, and thanks. Agree... I'm not going to get overconfident on stroke results as well, but I do think the pre-stroke data run-up has farther to go. We'll have a different set of questions to discuss on ATHX once it gets closer to $3. Some additional thoughts on the technical analysis...
Theoretically, since ATHX broke thru resistance at $2.15 this morning, that prior resistance should now serve as support. The market may test $2.15ish before moving higher. If support at $2.15ish does not hold... it may move back down to $2.05. IMO (based on the volume of the breakout), $2.15ish will hold and it'll move higher in the hours/days ahead.
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Post by selluwud on Jan 26, 2015 18:28:21 GMT
Jim, I do appreciate your technical analysis on this. I am still holding shares here from the previous run up and bust on UC results. I may sell when over 2.75 to recoup those losses. I have since bought a new position below 1.50 and will hold those through the stroke results. I am reluctant to be overconfident, but the UC trials were more about safety with the effectiveness being somewhat challenging because of the advanced state of the trial subjects. Good post Selluwud, and thanks. Agree... I'm not going to get overconfident on stroke results as well, but I do think the pre-stroke data run-up has farther to go. We'll have a different set of questions to discuss on ATHX once it gets closer to $3. Some additional thoughts on the technical analysis...
Theoretically, since ATHX broke thru resistance at $2.15 this morning, that prior resistance should now serve as support. The market may test $2.15ish before moving higher. If support at $2.15ish does not hold... it may move back down to $2.05. IMO (based on the volume of the breakout), $2.15ish will hold and it'll move higher in the hours/days ahead.
Would it be unreasonable to think ATHX could run up to similar levels as it did before the UC reveal, or will caution hold it down lower?? |
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Post by dayanand33 on Jan 26, 2015 18:49:18 GMT
Good post Selluwud, and thanks. Agree... I'm not going to get overconfident on stroke results as well, but I do think the pre-stroke data run-up has farther to go. We'll have a different set of questions to discuss on ATHX once it gets closer to $3. Some additional thoughts on the technical analysis...
Theoretically, since ATHX broke thru resistance at $2.15 this morning, that prior resistance should now serve as support. The market may test $2.15ish before moving higher. If support at $2.15ish does not hold... it may move back down to $2.05. IMO (based on the volume of the breakout), $2.15ish will hold and it'll move higher in the hours/days ahead.
Would it be unreasonable to think ATHX could run up to similar levels as it did before the UC reveal, or will caution hold it down lower?? It is likely to go higher because these are phase II results for stroke, which is more prevalent and costly than UC. The market is likely to buy the company's justification that UC trials had inadequate number of cells and very late stage patients who did not respond to other treatments. |
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Post by RLC on Jan 26, 2015 18:50:34 GMT
Good post Selluwud, and thanks. Agree... I'm not going to get overconfident on stroke results as well, but I do think the pre-stroke data run-up has farther to go. We'll have a different set of questions to discuss on ATHX once it gets closer to $3. Some additional thoughts on the technical analysis...
Theoretically, since ATHX broke thru resistance at $2.15 this morning, that prior resistance should now serve as support. The market may test $2.15ish before moving higher. If support at $2.15ish does not hold... it may move back down to $2.05. IMO (based on the volume of the breakout), $2.15ish will hold and it'll move higher in the hours/days ahead.
Would it be unreasonable to think ATHX could run up to similar levels as it did before the UC reveal, or will caution hold it down lower?? I've been wondering the same thing... and here are my brief thoughts... - Other news surrounding the UC runup that could have assisted to the Q1 2014 rally
-ATHX received Orphan Designation in Europe for GVHD (PR on 12/17/2013)
-ATHX confirmed completion of Patient Enrollment for Phase 2 UC Study, indicated results are expected in Q2 2014 (PR on 12/19/2013)
-ATHX announces new patents in Japan for Stem Cell & Regen Medicine Tech (PR on 01/09/2014)
-ATHX prices offering of common stock. Closed the deal @ $4.10/share (including warrants) for proceeds of $20.5 million (PR on 01/10/2014)
**Results of UC data released on 04/28/2014
Also keep the following items in mind:
- UC trial failing to show significant efficacy could dampen the run up as people might feel MultiStem is not an effective product
- While the UC trial was a collaborative effort with Pfizer and would have likely brought revenues to ATHX much faster (IMO), the market potential for stroke is far greater than for UC and ATHX owns 100% of that program. And with Japan initiatives, it's possible that ATHX see's revenues much quicker than was ever possible in the past.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 26, 2015 19:08:37 GMT
Would it be unreasonable to think ATHX could run up to similar levels as it did before the UC reveal, or will caution hold it down lower?? I've been wondering the same thing... and here are my brief thoughts... - Other news surrounding the UC runup that could have assisted to the Q1 2014 rally
-ATHX received Orphan Designation in Europe for GVHD (PR on 12/17/2013)
-ATHX confirmed completion of Patient Enrollment for Phase 2 UC Study, indicated results are expected in Q2 2014 (PR on 12/19/2013)
-ATHX announces new patents in Japan for Stem Cell & Regen Medicine Tech (PR on 01/09/2014)
-ATHX prices offering of common stock. Closed the deal @ $4.10/share (including warrants) for proceeds of $20.5 million (PR on 01/10/2014)
**Results of UC data released on 04/28/2014
Also keep the following items in mind:
- UC trial failing to show significant efficacy could dampen the run up as people might feel MultiStem is not an effective product
- While the UC trial was a collaborative effort with Pfizer and would have likely brought revenues to ATHX much faster (IMO), the market potential for stroke is far greater than for UC and ATHX owns 100% of that program. And with Japan initiatives, it's possible that ATHX see's revenues much quicker than was ever possible in the past.
Good question Sell, and good points in response Day and RLC.
Upside on positive stroke results is much much higher than positive UC results would have generated, so many analysts are thinking ATHX will run back up to $4+ prior to stroke results. There's a lot of pretty good scientific pre-clinical data out there that says Multistem will have an impact on stoke patients. A run to the $4 or $6 range would not surprise me at all. That said.... I'm going to keep a conservative view and wait for $3ish and will then re-evaluate.
Also note that the run to $3ish I'm expecting at a minimum assumes no other news gets announced. What if ATHX announces any one of the following news items before stroke results are released?
- UC Phase 2b announced with Pfizer - Partnership in Japan for stroke - AMI start of Phase 2 - GVHD start of pivotal Phase 2/3 with a partner funding the trials - etc
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Post by selluwud on Jan 26, 2015 19:37:34 GMT
What if ATHX announces any one of the following news items before stroke results are released?
- UC Phase 2b announced with Pfizer - Partnership in Japan for stroke - AMI start of Phase 2 - GVHD start of pivotal Phase 2/3 with a partner funding the trials - etc
Other than the AMI P2 start, I'd say all bets are off. Those announcements would mean there is proof of Multi Stem working and commitments are being made. Hold for profit multiples. |
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