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Post by Yelk on Jan 28, 2015 13:56:51 GMT
I haven't done much number crunching/models etc for biotech companies when they start to earn revenue. What is the ball park for ATHX if results show good enough efficacy for outside of Japan (long term) revenue. Somehow I feel that would be a whole lot more than a $20 PPS... But that is a very interesting conversation that will be continued if by some miracle the results are that good. I don't mean to pump but the potential is pretty huge. I am remaining as pessimistic as I can about the results as I can at the moment so I can make unemotional decisions at data time and mitigate losses  If this does play out however will be a long road of interesting times ahead. The "Wall Street Titan" did a good write up about a year ago on Seeking Alpha where he ballparked the ATHX pps on successful stroke data and market penetration. His analysis yielded a pps of over $300 per share in 2019 assuming a successful Phase 2 trial and some level of decent market penetration.... but only for North America and Japan.
So yes, upside is much higher than $20 on successful results. My $20 swag was just mentioned to show what I think is reasonable relatively soon (within 6 months) after any positive stroke results.
Thanks for the note. I guess lets not count our cures before they hatch. Sorry... not much sleep last night  I was going to say we are up pre-market and then noticed it was volume of 140. |
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Post by selluwud on Jan 28, 2015 19:14:58 GMT
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Post by Yelk on Jan 28, 2015 19:15:00 GMT
Looks like it wants to hold the 2.15 resistance. IMO this is people just recognizing we have many weeks to go yet to build up and everyone is wondering is it worth $2.15 or $3.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 28, 2015 19:20:13 GMT
Did the downgrade specify what for? The link didn't open properly I don't think. |
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Post by selluwud on Jan 28, 2015 19:44:16 GMT
Did the downgrade specify what for? The link didn't open properly I don't think. This is all that was shown (from Monday 1/26): Thomson Reuters/Verus downgrades ATHERSYS INC from HOLD to SELL. BY Investars Analyst Actions - public — 12:11 PM ET 01/26/2015 On January 26, 2015 Thomson Reuters/Verus downgraded ATHERSYS INC ( ATHX Loading... Loading... ) from HOLD to SELL. |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 28, 2015 20:31:29 GMT
Not too worried about that lawsuit news, which actually came out last week. The other firm issued a PR today. Basically, ATHX sued them claiming the cells they were using were too similar to ATHX's MAPC cells. The court disagreed. ATHX will appeal. The other firm has 1 product in Phase 2 for wound healing, so I'm not overly concerned as ATHX has many other indications farther along in clinical trials.
Consolidation over $2.15 is a good thing. Hope it holds.
Also, a new SEC filing ATHX issued this afternoon where ATHX repriced and extended the execution date by 2 months for some warrants. It's being discussed on yahoo. Not a big deal IMO, as it appears ATHX extended a courtesy to the warrant holders (people who have financed the company in the past) and are giving them 2 more months to exercise their warrants... they now have until end of May 2015 to exercise the warrants. In exchange, the price of the warrants was increased from $2.50 to $2.75.
So, essentially, ATHX is giving the warrant holders more time to exercise their warrants (presumably because stroke results won't be out by the old expiration date of March 31st) and in exchange the warrant holders will have to pay more for the shares if they decide to purchase them. Not a bad compromise. IMO, the warrant holders financed ATHX on the belief that stroke results would be out before 3/31/2015, so ATHX is doing the right thing by giving them an extention.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 28, 2015 21:15:12 GMT
Not too worried about that lawsuit news, which actually came out last week. The other firm issued a PR today. Basically, ATHX sued them claiming the cells they were using were too similar to ATHX's MAPC cells. The court disagreed. ATHX will appeal. The other firm has 1 product in Phase 2 for wound healing, so I'm not overly concerned as ATHX has many other indications farther along in clinical trials. Consolidation over $2.15 is a good thing. Hope it holds. Also, a new SEC filing ATHX issued this afternoon where ATHX repriced and extended the execution date by 2 months for some warrants. It's being discussed on yahoo. Not a big deal IMO, as it appears ATHX extended a courtesy to the warrant holders (people who have financed the company in the past) and are giving them 2 more months to exercise their warrants... they now have until end of May 2015 to exercise the warrants. In exchange, the price of the warrants was increased from $2.50 to $2.75. So, essentially, ATHX is giving the warrant holders more time to exercise their warrants (presumably because stroke results won't be out by the old expiration date of March 31st) and in exchange the warrant holders will have to pay more for the shares if they decide to purchase them. Not a bad compromise. IMO, the warrant holders financed ATHX on the belief that stroke results would be out before 3/31/2015, so ATHX is doing the right thing by giving them an extention. While $2.15 didn't hold, the $2.11 close is above the 5 day moving average. Volk on Yahoo has been pretty good with his technical analysis, and last week mentioned that $2.07 would be the new floor.
Extension and repricing of the warrants, combined with the lawsuit PR - both not overly negative to ATHX - gave some folks a reason to take profits today. Still a lot of buyers added shares over $2.
We'll see what tomorrow brings. I'm still bullish on a continued push higher in the days/weeks ahead.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 29, 2015 0:21:52 GMT
Not too worried about that lawsuit news, which actually came out last week. The other firm issued a PR today. Basically, ATHX sued them claiming the cells they were using were too similar to ATHX's MAPC cells. The court disagreed. ATHX will appeal. The other firm has 1 product in Phase 2 for wound healing, so I'm not overly concerned as ATHX has many other indications farther along in clinical trials. Consolidation over $2.15 is a good thing. Hope it holds. Also, a new SEC filing ATHX issued this afternoon where ATHX repriced and extended the execution date by 2 months for some warrants. It's being discussed on yahoo. Not a big deal IMO, as it appears ATHX extended a courtesy to the warrant holders (people who have financed the company in the past) and are giving them 2 more months to exercise their warrants... they now have until end of May 2015 to exercise the warrants. In exchange, the price of the warrants was increased from $2.50 to $2.75. So, essentially, ATHX is giving the warrant holders more time to exercise their warrants (presumably because stroke results won't be out by the old expiration date of March 31st) and in exchange the warrant holders will have to pay more for the shares if they decide to purchase them. Not a bad compromise. IMO, the warrant holders financed ATHX on the belief that stroke results would be out before 3/31/2015, so ATHX is doing the right thing by giving them an extention. While $2.15 didn't hold, the $2.11 close is above the 5 day moving average. Volk on Yahoo has been pretty good with his technical analysis, and last week mentioned that $2.07 would be the new floor.
Extension and repricing of the warrants, combined with the lawsuit PR - both not overly negative to ATHX - gave some folks a reason to take profits today. Still a lot of buyers added shares over $2.
We'll see what tomorrow brings. I'm still bullish on a continued push higher in the days/weeks ahead.
I agree. Something to consider as well that last drop was a big 140K block sell which is more than likely some very large holdings taking their profits from $1.20-$1.40. We have plenty of time before results and hopefully we see strong volume and $2.15-$2.20 tomorrow or by Friday. Today was honestly expected for myself to see a dip although I didn't expect more than 3-4% I'll be honest. I'm new to this stock so I wasn't around for the last crash but I've heard it keeps some old investors cautious. However technical analysis aside with both logical and fundamental catalysts in perspective I fail see how this could be anything below $2.50 before the news, the risk/reward is just to attractive at the $2 level to be ignored. I added today at $2.15 a small chunk and will continue to be bullish. Ordinarily if this went even lower I would continue to buy more but I need to remain cautious the 2 weeks prior to this and last week I got nailed hard with BCLI and NDRM, also got in at the wrong time with APRI. I'm a season tech investor but was fairly new to the Bio tech world in December 2014. I've done an insane amount of research and learning in the last 6 weeks and have enjoyed the transition this far and am sure by the end of 2015 I will know exactly what I'm doing like I did with computer technology. I've nearly recovered all my losses now and am looking for gains in the next 8-10 weeks but I need to be careful ATHX doesn't take me down. As confident as I am about this company I'm not in the position to take huge risks an am nearing that point as I got in just below $2. |
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Post by selluwud on Jan 29, 2015 0:32:18 GMT
While $2.15 didn't hold, the $2.11 close is above the 5 day moving average. Volk on Yahoo has been pretty good with his technical analysis, and last week mentioned that $2.07 would be the new floor.
Extension and repricing of the warrants, combined with the lawsuit PR - both not overly negative to ATHX - gave some folks a reason to take profits today. Still a lot of buyers added shares over $2.
We'll see what tomorrow brings. I'm still bullish on a continued push higher in the days/weeks ahead.
I agree. Something to consider as well that last drop was a big 140K block sell which is more than likely some very large holdings taking their profits from $1.20-$1.40. We have plenty of time before results and hopefully we see strong volume and $2.15-$2.20 tomorrow or by Friday. Today was honestly expected for myself to see a dip although I didn't expect more than 3-4% I'll be honest. I'm new to this stock so I wasn't around for the last crash but I've heard it keeps some old investors cautious. However technical analysis aside with both logical and fundamental catalysts in perspective I fail see how this could be anything below $2.50 before the news, the risk/reward is just to attractive at the $2 level to be ignored. I added today at $2.15 a small chunk and will continue to be bullish. Ordinarily if this went even lower I would continue to buy more but I need to remain cautious the 2 weeks prior to this and last week I got nailed hard with BCLI and NDRM, also got in at the wrong time with APRI. I'm a season tech investor but was fairly new to the Bio tech world in December 2014. I've done an insane amount of research and learning in the last 6 weeks and have enjoyed the transition this far and am sure by the end of 2015 I will know exactly what I'm doing like I did with computer technology. I've nearly recovered all my losses now and am looking for gains in the next 8-10 weeks but I need to be careful ATHX doesn't take me down. As confident as I am about this company I'm not in the position to take huge risks an am nearing that point as I got in just below $2. Caution aside, I agree with you. Unless the Stroke results come out early and unexpected, the anticipation run will push this into the 3's. I will sell to cover cost and former losses then let the balance follow fate. |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 29, 2015 0:58:08 GMT
While $2.15 didn't hold, the $2.11 close is above the 5 day moving average. Volk on Yahoo has been pretty good with his technical analysis, and last week mentioned that $2.07 would be the new floor.
Extension and repricing of the warrants, combined with the lawsuit PR - both not overly negative to ATHX - gave some folks a reason to take profits today. Still a lot of buyers added shares over $2.
We'll see what tomorrow brings. I'm still bullish on a continued push higher in the days/weeks ahead.
I agree. Something to consider as well that last drop was a big 140K block sell which is more than likely some very large holdings taking their profits from $1.20-$1.40. We have plenty of time before results and hopefully we see strong volume and $2.15-$2.20 tomorrow or by Friday. Today was honestly expected for myself to see a dip although I didn't expect more than 3-4% I'll be honest. I'm new to this stock so I wasn't around for the last crash but I've heard it keeps some old investors cautious. However technical analysis aside with both logical and fundamental catalysts in perspective I fail see how this could be anything below $2.50 before the news, the risk/reward is just to attractive at the $2 level to be ignored. I added today at $2.15 a small chunk and will continue to be bullish. Ordinarily if this went even lower I would continue to buy more but I need to remain cautious the 2 weeks prior to this and last week I got nailed hard with BCLI and NDRM, also got in at the wrong time with APRI. I'm a season tech investor but was fairly new to the Bio tech world in December 2014. I've done an insane amount of research and learning in the last 6 weeks and have enjoyed the transition this far and am sure by the end of 2015 I will know exactly what I'm doing like I did with computer technology. I've nearly recovered all my losses now and am looking for gains in the next 8-10 weeks but I need to be careful ATHX doesn't take me down. As confident as I am about this company I'm not in the position to take huge risks an am nearing that point as I got in just below $2. Good post, agree... especially with the bolded. That large block sale took it down a bit. The higher it creeps up the more we'll see of those type of profit taking moves. Overall trend is still up.... today was just part of a normal uptrend.
I also think the repricing of the warrants to $2.75 will eventually be a catalyst... it indicates to me that management believes the pps is heading over $3. I would have been concerned if they dropped the warrant price from $2.50 down to $2ish. They didn't... they raised it.
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Post by JHam on Jan 29, 2015 8:13:17 GMT
Not too worried about that lawsuit news, which actually came out last week. The other firm issued a PR today. Basically, ATHX sued them claiming the cells they were using were too similar to ATHX's MAPC cells. The court disagreed. ATHX will appeal. The other firm has 1 product in Phase 2 for wound healing, so I'm not overly concerned as ATHX has many other indications farther along in clinical trials. Consolidation over $2.15 is a good thing. Hope it holds. Also, a new SEC filing ATHX issued this afternoon where ATHX repriced and extended the execution date by 2 months for some warrants. It's being discussed on yahoo. Not a big deal IMO, as it appears ATHX extended a courtesy to the warrant holders (people who have financed the company in the past) and are giving them 2 more months to exercise their warrants... they now have until end of May 2015 to exercise the warrants. In exchange, the price of the warrants was increased from $2.50 to $2.75. So, essentially, ATHX is giving the warrant holders more time to exercise their warrants (presumably because stroke results won't be out by the old expiration date of March 31st) and in exchange the warrant holders will have to pay more for the shares if they decide to purchase them. Not a bad compromise. IMO, the warrant holders financed ATHX on the belief that stroke results would be out before 3/31/2015, so ATHX is doing the right thing by giving them an extention. Agree with your assessment on the warrant extension Jckrdu. Someone who went to the last conference on the ONCS Google board said he heard them state that stroke data may not come out until May. I listened to that presentation, but don't remember that being said. Still seems to fall within the new warrant extension date though. |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 29, 2015 13:33:25 GMT
Not too worried about that lawsuit news, which actually came out last week. The other firm issued a PR today. Basically, ATHX sued them claiming the cells they were using were too similar to ATHX's MAPC cells. The court disagreed. ATHX will appeal. The other firm has 1 product in Phase 2 for wound healing, so I'm not overly concerned as ATHX has many other indications farther along in clinical trials. Consolidation over $2.15 is a good thing. Hope it holds. Also, a new SEC filing ATHX issued this afternoon where ATHX repriced and extended the execution date by 2 months for some warrants. It's being discussed on yahoo. Not a big deal IMO, as it appears ATHX extended a courtesy to the warrant holders (people who have financed the company in the past) and are giving them 2 more months to exercise their warrants... they now have until end of May 2015 to exercise the warrants. In exchange, the price of the warrants was increased from $2.50 to $2.75. So, essentially, ATHX is giving the warrant holders more time to exercise their warrants (presumably because stroke results won't be out by the old expiration date of March 31st) and in exchange the warrant holders will have to pay more for the shares if they decide to purchase them. Not a bad compromise. IMO, the warrant holders financed ATHX on the belief that stroke results would be out before 3/31/2015, so ATHX is doing the right thing by giving them an extention. Agree with your assessment on the warrant extension Jckrdu. Someone who went to the last conference on the ONCS Google board said he heard them state that stroke data may not come out until May. I listened to that presentation, but don't remember that being said. Still seems to fall within the new warrant extension date though. Hey JHam - The person you're talking about may have heard something off the record after the conference. But, the last official statement from BJ (Pres and COO) at the last conference was that stroke results will be out by "the end of the 1st QTR... give or take a few weeks". That said, it wouldn't surprise me if it took a little longer, but no one from the company said "May" in any public statement. |
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Post by Yelk on Jan 29, 2015 13:43:02 GMT
I can't recall where but I seem to remember reading a public statement somewhere that said 90 days+ and it ended late December so early May would seem correct. There were other reasons a few people thought that as well but I'm not sure I'll see if I can find anything. The one I remember for sure is the one you stated first quarter "ish".
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 29, 2015 13:46:04 GMT
I can't recall where but I seem to remember reading a public statement somewhere that said 90 days+ and it ended late December so early May would seem correct. There were other reasons a few people thought that as well but I'm not sure I'll see if I can find anything. December 31 + 90 days = March 31. I listened to all the calls.... never heard them say "May". End of 1st qtr +/- weeks is the latest guidance.
The "give or take weeks" comment takes it to mid-April, so I agree Yelk and JHam that May could certainly be when we see results. But, company officials never used the word "May" when describing when results would be out.
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Post by selluwud on Jan 29, 2015 13:57:48 GMT
I can't recall where but I seem to remember reading a public statement somewhere that said 90 days+ and it ended late December so early May would seem correct. There were other reasons a few people thought that as well but I'm not sure I'll see if I can find anything. December 31 + 90 days = March 31. I listened to all the calls.... never heard them say May. End of 1st qtr +/- weeks is the latest guidance. Premarket doesn't like the news. When the stroke enrollment was pushed out, the pps took a hit then as well. |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 29, 2015 14:08:06 GMT
December 31 + 90 days = March 31. I listened to all the calls.... never heard them say May. End of 1st qtr +/- weeks is the latest guidance. Premarket doesn't like the news. When the stroke enrollment was pushed out, the pps took a hit then as well. I never found premarket or after hour trading to be a reliable predictor of how the days trading session will unfold. Just this week ATHX traded up in premarket and closed lower.
We have a 6-10 week stretch of pre-stroke trading days ahead where there will be ups and downs along the way. As we've all stated, many people that accumulated lower are taking profits from their buys in the $1.30s. That'll continue.
For today, I look at the 3 month chart and see the general uptrend. I'm looking for $2-ish to hold and a close over $2 so that general uptrend remains in place.
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Post by RLC on Jan 29, 2015 14:27:22 GMT
I made a small purchase yesterday at $2.10, assuming it would be my last. HOWEVER, if I'm presented with the opportunity to add more under $2, I'm going to jump on it.
I agree about pre-market / after hours trading. IMO, it's all about volume and typically there is very little in pre-market & after hours trading.
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Post by selluwud on Jan 29, 2015 14:34:47 GMT
Generally I would agree about pre-market activity, especially in small volumes. Large volumes...............then that's another story.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 29, 2015 14:56:57 GMT
ATHX made 2 runs at the resistance at $2.30 this week. IMO, this pullback is just consolidation.... and the next run to try and break through the $2.30s will be coming soon. Any number of things can start the next run, including news of any kind or just 1 institution starting to buy their next chunk of shares before results.
Heading into meetings the rest of the day. GL all.
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Post by lovie350z on Jan 29, 2015 16:18:35 GMT
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If this does play out however will be a long road of interesting times ahead. 
