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Post by jckrdu on May 23, 2021 12:36:53 GMT
Twenty2 - A couple of quick thoughts in response... On the early buyout question - Anything is possible and imo if someone was able to make an offer for anywhere between $5-$10 pps, shareholders would approve as that'd be a triple+ from the current valuation. Hopefully, ATHX valuation increases in the days/weeks ahead so an early/lowball buyout becomes less likely. On why we're at a $375M market cap ($1.70ish pps) - No big mystery on this one, imo... as the market needs to see the official release of positive pivotal data. You can look at the CAR-T companies and how their valuations changed pretty much overnight after successful Phase 3 data was announced. IMO, cell therapies will follow a similar route to higher valuations. Hardy's recent comments on "tendency of efficacy for vfd and mortality" and "highly confident" of approval were pretty clear to all of us that follow ATHX that positive pivotal data release is coming at anytime, but IMO the market still needs to see the actual/official data. Other currently unknown factors (that add risk and thus keep the lid on the valuation) also come into play such as how fast Helios/Athersys can penetrate the market and ramp revenues, capital/share requirements to ramp-up, etc. Hardy's recent verbal comments (confirming efficacy of the pivotal ARDS trial in Japan) started the dominos falling to a higher valuation for ATHX, imo. How far and how fast ATHX' valuation rises is anyone's guess, but I'll just point you to slide #9 at link below in latest Helios deck. If the PMDA approves Multi-Stem for all-cause ARDS in Japan, that's 12,000 patients per year... and probably more because of covid. (That 12,000 potential patients per year is 3 times higher than I was thinking just a few days ago when pneumonia induced ARDS was what I - and the market - thought was on the table near-term). While 12,000 patients per year is short of the 62,000 patients per year targeted for stroke in Japan, 12,000 per year is still a large target population. With the first release of positive pivotal data, all the other dominos will start to fall... including (per Ivor's recent comments) an Ards partnership for Athersys. The fun is just starting.  See Slide #9 for Target ARDS Patient Pool in Japan 12,000 per Yearssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4593/tdnet/1971159/00.pdf |
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Post by twenty2 on May 23, 2021 15:13:28 GMT
Twenty2 - A couple of quick thoughts in response... On the early buyout question - Anything is possible and imo if someone was able to make an offer for anywhere between $5-$10 pps, shareholders would approve as that'd be a triple+ from the current valuation. Hopefully, ATHX valuation increases in the days/weeks ahead so an early/lowball buyout becomes less likely. On why we're at a $375M market cap ($1.70ish pps) - No big mystery on this one, imo... as the market needs to see the official release of positive pivotal data. You can look at the CAR-T companies and how their valuations changed pretty much overnight after successful Phase 3 data was announced. IMO, cell therapies will follow a similar route to higher valuations. Hardy's recent comments on "tendency of efficacy for vfd and mortality" and "highly confident" of approval were pretty clear to all of us that follow ATHX that positive pivotal data release is coming at anytime, but IMO the market still needs to see the actual/official data. Other currently unknown factors (that add risk and thus keep the lid on the valuation) also come into play such as how fast Helios/Athersys can penetrate the market and ramp revenues, capital/share requirements to ramp-up, etc. Hardy's recent verbal comments (confirming efficacy of the pivotal ARDS trial in Japan) started the dominos falling to a higher valuation for ATHX, imo. How far and how fast ATHX' valuation rises is anyone's guess, but I'll just point you to slide #9 at link below in latest Helios deck. If the PMDA approves Multi-Stem for all-cause ARDS in Japan, that's 12,000 patients per year... and probably more because of covid. (That 12,000 potential patients per year is 3 times higher than I was thinking just a few days ago when pneumonia induced ARDS was what I - and the market - thought was on the table near-term). While 12,000 patients per year is short of the 62,000 patients per year targeted for stroke in Japan, 12,000 per year is still a large target population. With the first release of positive pivotal data, all the other dominos will start to fall... including (per Ivor's recent comments) an Ards partnership for Athersys. The fun is just starting. See Slide #9 for Target ARDS Patient Pool in Japan 12,000 per Year
ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4593/tdnet/1971159/00. Good observation, jckrdu!...From that slide #9 - "Number of ARDS patients in Japan estimated approximately 7,000 - 12,000 per year
Approximately 1/3 of ARDS cases caused by pneumonia"
Hope, Hardy, can get it done...Soon... twenty2 |
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Post by JHam on May 24, 2021 14:22:40 GMT
Thanks to everyone here on this board. Everyone tries to contribute in a positive way, even if they are coming with criticism or praise. Thanks, jckrdu...I appreciate it!...and, all that you do, as well as so many others here, and elsewhere...If we're not here to help each other, what are we here for? (Help, as best we can, when we can)...It's my philosophy in life...We're all here to help...and, here in particular (at this wonderful site that jham has created - Hello, jham...Hope you're doing well, and staying safe) to help each other better understand our investment in Athersys... Couple of things are on my mind right now...I really thought it was great of you guys to take the High Road in your reaction regarding the passing of Gary Rabin that imz reported on here - link ...You guys are too classy for that...It would be beneath you to do otherwise...There were only a few reactions...Sometimes, no reaction is better than many sorry reactions...Reactions that do no good at all...You don't want to hear me go on, and on with stories...And, it's a little too painful for me...It's water under the bridge...(Learn from the past...Just don't dwell on it longer than necessary) So, I'll keep it short...Good or bad, right or wrong...Bottom line, Gary Rabin, a father, died much too young...Rest In Peace, Gary... The other thing on my mind deals with our investment in Athersys...It's so hard to believe our current share price - $1.66...Why is that you think?...Is the request for an additional 300 million shares keeping a lid on things?...Is our science (Multistem) still considered by many, much unproven?...No proven/experienced CEO at the helm at present?...Is the search for a new CEO in earnest?...Does our management team give away too many free shares, and too many bonuses?...And, or, are we in the mist of some type of manipulation just before someone swoops in to try to buy us out?...I can see the headline now...Fill in the blank, fill in the name _______________ ...Pretend you're a CEO of a biotech name...What's your best offer for all of Athersys???...Do you agree, $5.00 per share would be a steal???...What's the valuation at $5.00?...That's your que, imz...Just teasin' I'll take a stab, from memory...Roughly 222 Million Shares (I remember 2's real well) X $5.00 = $1.110 Billion... What would the HEADLINE be??? " Athersys Offered 300% Premium For Buyout...Over One Billion Dollars!"...Oh My God! Would you sell?...At present, do you think your fill in the blank biotech could tender the necessary shares (50%+) to complete the deal???...At $5.00?...But, before all this...Are you confident our ATHX board would ever consider this???...At $5.00?...I remember my Dad would always say..."No harm in listening"...Okay, how would the BOD respond?...If the BOD made a counter offer, I wonder what it would be???...$8.50 X 222 M Shares = $1.887 Billion... " Athersys Offered Over 500% Premium For Buyout...Near 2 Billion Dollars!"...Oh My Double God!...Would you sell/tender your shares then???... (Reminder - I believe the valuation of our Ocata, when it was bought out at $8.50, was roughly $376 Million...) What am I getting at?...I spent a good amount of time in the wee hours last night reviewing this thread, - "Appraisal Rights Discussion Thread" (Astellas buys Ocata) link - (14 pages, First Post - Feb 10, 2016 at 7:45am... Last Post - Oct 20, 2018 at 3:40pm...roughly 33 months...Between 2.5 - 3.0 years)... I have so much respect and admiration for what you/those guys did, with the leadership of "vzveteran", and others, and the hero duties of "kukkido"...What a team you all were!... Are you winner rebels all sworn to secrecy?...I have so much to ask!... It could come in handy?...But Most Important, I Want Fill In The Blank Biotech To Know ATHX Shareholders Are No Dummies! We've Been Through This All Before!...I WANT TO BROADCAST IT!...FAR & WIDE... I'll leave it there for now... Best Wishes... twenty2 PS. And, jckrdu...Yes!...I agree..."As Gary Rabin (RIP) would say, I think we've got a tiger by the tail here. "... That's Some Tiger! His Name is MultiStem!
Know His Value... Hey twenty2! Great to see you. I am doing as well as one could during this crazy time. Hope all is well with you too! |
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Post by graham11 on May 24, 2021 16:10:40 GMT
I like Athersys being a straight forward company when it comes to PRing results. They don't try to spin. If they fail to meet end points, they put it in the headline. Other companies have credibility problems (MESO, CYDY) because of this and the FDA has a long memory. They probably shouldn't take a company's culture and history into account when deciding whether or not to approve a drug/treatment but they do. I worked a lot of years on FDA clinical trials (not stem cells) and Athersys always seemed to do things the right way. Gil had a good relationship with the FDA and I believe we'll see dividends from that soon. I think that's why they gave us mRs shift as a primary end point in the SPA stroke study. (It's not the shift from the last study. There is no arbitrary end point. It's a layup.) Anyway, all that being said, I'm glad Hardy, not ATHX, is the one who will release the headline for the ARDS study. He'll make it clear that the study showed good results and they are applying for approval. Being such a small study, the probability of hitting an end point is miniscule. I think the results are delayed a bit because he wants to include something about the PMDA in the press release. He knows vultures like AF are circling and won't give them the opportunity to dine. Thanks Guys it has been very enlighting |
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Post by twenty2 on May 25, 2021 4:30:41 GMT
JHam: "Hey twenty2! Great to see you. I am doing as well as one could during this crazy time. Hope all is well with you too!"twenty2: And, you as well, JHam..Good to hear from you...Great to see you're still at it!...Crazy time for sure!...During 2020, I felt like I was living inside a BLOCKBUSTER Science Fiction Movie...I'm hanging in there one day at a time, Thanks!... If I may ask you?...And, this goes to some degree re the prospects of some sort of EUA for MultiStem in Japan, assuming good results as we have been led to believe by Hardy, recently...Do you feel the COVID-19 situation in Japan is as dire as this recent article indicates? - Japan's Osaka city crumples under Covid-19 onslaught as doctors warn of a 'system collapse' (5/23/21) - linkIf I may share this...Post at reddit - linkMany Thanks, JHam! twenty2
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Post by JHam on May 25, 2021 11:53:14 GMT
JHam: "Hey twenty2! Great to see you. I am doing as well as one could during this crazy time. Hope all is well with you too!"twenty2: And, you as well, JHam..Good to hear from you...Great to see you're still at it!...Crazy time for sure!...During 2020, I felt like I was living inside a BLOCKBUSTER Science Fiction Movie...I'm hanging in there one day at a time, Thanks!... If I may ask you?...And, this goes to some degree re the prospects of some sort of EUA for MultiStem in Japan, assuming good results as we have been led to believe by Hardy, recently...Do you feel the COVID-19 situation in Japan is as dire as this recent article indicates? - Japan's Osaka city crumples under Covid-19 onslaught as doctors warn of a 'system collapse' (5/23/21) - linkIf I may share this...Post at reddit - linkMany Thanks, JHam! twenty2 Good question. The situation here is pretty bad, but nowhere near like how it was in the US and in some places in EU (Italy/Spain) in April of last year. We are supposed to be in an extended lockdown right now, but it doesn’t really feel much different. I am riding a very crowded train as I write this and have been going to work pretty much as usual, with some COVID protocols in place. Bars are supposed to be shut, but many ignore the order, simply pay the fine and remain open as usual. People took the orders more seriously at the beginning, but with the painfully slow vaccine rollout here and no more subsidies from the govt, many have given up. Cases have gone down in recent weeks, and even at the peak here were were *only* getting 4,000 new daily cases or so nationwide. There is a strain on the system, especially in Osaka, but it is nothing like India or anything like that. But for Japan’s standard it is pretty bad. Sorry for the long reply. |
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Post by twenty2 on May 27, 2021 15:33:20 GMT
twenty2
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Post by twenty2 on May 28, 2021 14:50:51 GMT
JHam: "Hey twenty2! Great to see you. I am doing as well as one could during this crazy time. Hope all is well with you too!"twenty2: And, you as well, JHam..Good to hear from you...Great to see you're still at it!...Crazy time for sure!...During 2020, I felt like I was living inside a BLOCKBUSTER Science Fiction Movie...I'm hanging in there one day at a time, Thanks!... If I may ask you?...And, this goes to some degree re the prospects of some sort of EUA for MultiStem in Japan, assuming good results as we have been led to believe by Hardy, recently...Do you feel the COVID-19 situation in Japan is as dire as this recent article indicates? - Japan's Osaka city crumples under Covid-19 onslaught as doctors warn of a 'system collapse' (5/23/21) - linkIf I may share this...Post at reddit - linkMany Thanks, JHam! twenty2 Good question. The situation here is pretty bad, but nowhere near like how it was in the US and in some places in EU (Italy/Spain) in April of last year. We are supposed to be in an extended lockdown right now, but it doesn’t really feel much different. I am riding a very crowded train as I write this and have been going to work pretty much as usual, with some COVID protocols in place. Bars are supposed to be shut, but many ignore the order, simply pay the fine and remain open as usual. People took the orders more seriously at the beginning, but with the painfully slow vaccine rollout here and no more subsidies from the govt, many have given up. Cases have gone down in recent weeks, and even at the peak here were were *only* getting 4,000 new daily cases or so nationwide. There is a strain on the system, especially in Osaka, but it is nothing like India or anything like that. But for Japan’s standard it is pretty bad. Sorry for the long reply. Great detail, JHam!...I felt like I was riding in the train with you... Another article I found posted at reddit, by "Streeker74": Japan extends COVID-19 state of emergency ahead of Games - linkChanging the subject...Interview with, Dr. Robert (Willie) Mays... twenty2 |
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Post by twenty2 on Jun 2, 2021 14:45:00 GMT
twenty2
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Post by ericchemist on Jun 21, 2021 19:59:01 GMT
As we wait for news out of Japan, I came across a notice of a 'webinar' in an e-mail that I received today from an organization known as "Endpoints News".
July 21, 2 PM EDT
Recent key advances in autologous stem cell-derived therapies →
sponsored by Cellino
I sent off a note to Athersys Investor Relations to ask whether there will be any participation by a company representative. It would be interesting to hear back from them, and if so that their response would be in the affirmative.
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Post by imz72 on Jun 21, 2021 21:38:41 GMT
As we wait for news out of Japan, I came across a notice of a 'webinar' in an e-mail that I received today from an organization known as "Endpoints News".
July 21, 2 PM EDT
Recent key advances in autologous stem cell-derived therapies →
sponsored by Cellino
I sent off a note to Athersys Investor Relations to ask whether there will be any participation by a company representative. It would be interesting to hear back from them, and if so that their response would be in the affirmative.
Thanks, but since MultiStem is allogeneic and the webinar is about autologous cells there's no reason for Athersys to be there. Here are the webinar's details: webinars.endpts.com/recent-key-advances-in-autologous-stem-cell-derived-therapies/ |
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Post by eitherhalf on Jun 22, 2021 1:10:18 GMT
Hello all,
I just wanted to make my presence known on the board since I have not been trading for some years. Kids are off to college and my trading courage has benefited a bit. I have a stake in ATHX and hope this promising drug meets it challenge, and more importantly shows us the MONEY!!
I wanted to say how nice it is to see many of the trustworthy originals still here and going strong. I remember when Jham originated this board along with other stalwart members as a relief from the yahoo group and we all trouped over here.
I am excited to see most everyone still here so many years later.
Stuck a toe in, now I wait.
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Post by JHam on Jun 22, 2021 5:43:22 GMT
Hello all, I just wanted to make my presence known on the board since I have not been trading for some years. Kids are off to college and my trading courage has benefited a bit. I have a stake in ATHX and hope this promising drug meets it challenge, and more importantly shows us the MONEY!! I wanted to say how nice it is to see many of the trustworthy originals still here and going strong. I remember when Jham originated this board along with other stalwart members as a relief from the yahoo group and we all trouped over here. I am excited to see most everyone still here so many years later. Stuck a toe in, now I wait. eitherhalf, Long time no see! Glad you are well. Congrats on the kids going to college. Yep, many of us are still here and kicking. Good luck with ATHX! J |
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Post by eitherhalf on Jun 23, 2021 17:10:41 GMT
Oh, and let me just add, I love, love, love your strong presence on Reddit Biosect!!! Great to hear the voice of reason and objectivity in the clamoring masses!
I have been in since around 1.78 and averaged down to 1.68 so far. People are getting quite agitated so your counterpoints are a welcome read.
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Post by selluwud on Jun 30, 2021 12:19:45 GMT
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Post by eitherhalf on Jul 1, 2021 22:50:26 GMT
Looks like the nosebleed is stabilizing a bit here. No gaps. Great product and the peer review seems to be the beginning, albeit, the very beginning. I am still excited.
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pata
Junior Member
Posts: 52 
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Post by pata on Jul 30, 2021 3:45:32 GMT
Given that Hardy thought TREASURE would complete enrollment last year, why would it still not be done 7-8 months later? Presumably COVID does not stop strokes or their treatment? If anything, strokes appear to be more frequent with the virus.
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Post by eitherhalf on Jul 30, 2021 13:13:55 GMT
Good point! With Covid being the underlying disease would that eliminate the possibility of using it because of protocol?
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Post by imz72 on Aug 6, 2021 0:18:36 GMT
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Post by omstem on Aug 6, 2021 6:52:23 GMT
Thank you Imz.
I have been watching this stock and this board for inputs form friends.
I have invested in this company even from ACTC/Ocata days as a hedge.
Twenty2 and JCK have been providing some good updates (so as other fellow posters and thank them all though I could not name each of them).
This new news about IMZ shared on this board seem big to me. When I was checking the after hours activity on all stocks I own, I was surprised by the jump (though 6 cents) and dug to find out the reason.
This perhaps is the inflection point we have been waiting for so long.
The so called Europe collaboration etc. that we have been waiting for years may be near.
We still need a REAL CEO and not an interim CEO. Hope that position will also be filled soon and hope that this new CEO will not dance to the tunes of the partners. ATHX longs deserve a CEO who keeps ATHX longs in mind.
We still need to acknowledge the contributions of GVB whether we reach the best outcome or if the current share holders are short changed.
GLTA.
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