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Post by imz72 on Mar 13, 2022 15:08:50 GMT
Whats the next major catalyst here? Healios' meeting with the PMDA is scheduled for the second half of this month for what could be the final step before applying for approval of ARDS. If no more work is needed an application could follow shortly after. Treasure results (90 days and 365 days) expected to come out around June (end of May at the earliest). Masters-2 90 days results could be expected in the spring of next year at the earliest, but more likely around the middle of next year.
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Post by jamesjohnson12 on Mar 14, 2022 19:56:46 GMT
JCKRDU, Have you bought back in yet?
I didn't have the balls to do what you did, but you are looking pretty smart right now. I would have gotten to cash in on a pretty substantial capital gains loss and then almost doubled the share count if I bought back in down here...congrats on a good call.
Price action is crappy and hopefully they have a solid plan going forward for financing, but I really don't feel any different. It either works and a whole slew of good things are about to happen or it doesn't. This price action is mostly irrelevant as long as they have enough cash to keep the lights on for 3-6 more months or a conceivable plan to get that cash without strings attached. I assume they have this figured out.
Excited to hear the 1st CC with Dan, but not getting my hopes too high either. I bet it is more of the same, but hopefully articulated better such that current investors can sense a changing of the tide so to speak. One way or another, things will be interesting over the next 3 months.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 16, 2022 11:26:39 GMT
JCKRDU, Have you bought back in yet? I didn't have the balls to do what you did, but you are looking pretty smart right now. I would have gotten to cash in on a pretty substantial capital gains loss and then almost doubled the share count if I bought back in down here...congrats on a good call. Price action is crappy and hopefully they have a solid plan going forward for financing, but I really don't feel any different. It either works and a whole slew of good things are about to happen or it doesn't. This price action is mostly irrelevant as long as they have enough cash to keep the lights on for 3-6 more months or a conceivable plan to get that cash without strings attached. I assume they have this figured out. Excited to hear the 1st CC with Dan, but not getting my hopes too high either. I bet it is more of the same, but hopefully articulated better such that current investors can sense a changing of the tide so to speak. One way or another, things will be interesting over the next 3 months. Have not bought back in yet in any meaningful way. Still mostly riding down other bio stocks elsewhere. I still do intend to re-enter ATHX before stroke data readout because I remain bullish on the results. Still have some near-term concerns with continued pps drifting lower due overall bio market, continued Aspire downward pressure, and lack of near-term catalysts. ARDS application provides a bump IMO, but can't bank on when that news comes.... April? May? June? Later? Need an update from Hardy post PMDA meeting. Hopefully bio market stabilizes and starts to recover so ATHX gets some needed tailwinds while we wait for data. Good call yesterday, IMO. Good to see Aspire floor lowered so they've "solved" the immediate cash runway issue, and now have a definitive way to get past Treasure data readout. Longer-term - Biggest bullish indicator is Dan's overall compensation package where he has options (not RSUs) at .84. Only way he makes money is if stock trades higher. Shorter-term - I still think they're tapping Aspire to build a bit more cash and give themselves a cushion in the event of unforeseen data lock/analysis delays from Helios. GL all.
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Post by imz72 on Mar 16, 2022 16:23:22 GMT
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Post by selluwud on Mar 17, 2022 22:12:41 GMT
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Post by eitherhalf on Mar 18, 2022 0:30:44 GMT
I believe it was the astoundingly low price of .77 combined with the catalyst of Dan's purchase worth $150,000. I know those factors propelled me to make another significant purchase at this price. I put an order to purchase at .69 before market opened and also before I knew he bought shares but it didn't fill. Later in the day when I saw his purchase it just gave me more inspiration to get some at these levels so I did buy more than I planned to and am really glad I did. This is going to be a long road to haul after all the shit pot holes athx has travelled but I feel this guy truly believes (and knows something)so much so that he would potentially ruin his reputation stepping down from an established org to this tiny unproven pot hole filled venture. He will turn it into the autobahn!
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 4, 2022 11:39:29 GMT
Disappointing news on the ARDS program. Hard to figure how the threshold of "indications of efficacy" was not met to support moving forward with an application. Stroke data will need to meet endpoints as I now have questions on what "indications of efficacy" requires for conditional approval in Japan. Better news on the stroke program. FWIW, I bought back 1/10th of my prior position at .48 pre-market. FWIW, I plan continue to rebuild my position over the coming 4-6 weeks prior to stroke data release. For stroke, Helios guidance is for data lock to only occur in May, with a very fast period of analysis (4 weeks or less). Not sure they'll meet that "plan", but reasonable chances they do, IMO. ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4593/tdnet/2103271/00.pdfssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4593/tdnet/2103272/00.pdf
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Post by imz72 on Apr 4, 2022 12:49:45 GMT
Hard to figure how the threshold of "indications of efficacy" was not met to support moving forward with an application. Stroke data will need to meet endpoints as I now have questions on what "indications of efficacy" requires for conditional approval in Japan. My assumption is that the problem was an inadequate number of patients. One-Bridge was designed to include 30 patients, but Healios presented data of only 26, as there were 4 dropouts. Likewise I assume that the insufficient number of patients was also the reason for the PMDA's request to wait with Treasure's data unblinding until the 90-day data is locked. Treasure was set to include 220 patients, but eventually enrolled "more than 200".
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 4, 2022 13:03:53 GMT
Hard to figure how the threshold of "indications of efficacy" was not met to support moving forward with an application. Stroke data will need to meet endpoints as I now have questions on what "indications of efficacy" requires for conditional approval in Japan. My assumption is that the problem was an inadequate number of patients. One-Bridge was designed to include 30 patients, but Healios presented data of only 26, as there were 4 dropouts. Likewise I assume that the insufficient number of patients was also the reason for the PMDA's request to wait with Treasure's data unblinding until the 90-day data is locked. Treasure was set to include 220 patients, but eventually enrolled "more than 200". Imz - I hear you, but I also believe the below statement from Helios is NOT an overly enthusiastic view of efficacy from the PMDA. IMO, the phrase "certain level of agreement" implies that the PMDA isn't totally on board with efficacy. Maybe the PMDA's conclusion is because the patient population was small as you mentioned, but other treatments with a smaller number of patients have been given conditional approval in Japan, so why not MultiStem? Seems that trial size wasn't the only factor. "During the consultation, although a certain level of agreement was reached in relation to the efficacy and safety of HLCM051 for ARDS, Healios was advised that when making a future application for approval for the ARDS indication, it needs to add certain supporting data to the proposed application data package."ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4593/tdnet/2103271/00.pdf
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 11, 2022 15:19:18 GMT
Fwiw Added more today at .50 Now back to 25% of my original position. My plan is to continue to add prior to stroke results, especially on any weakness. I'm being cautious adding for the reasons noted in my prior posts. If the XBI continues to pullback to the mid 80s on interest rate and other fears, it'll likely take most bios (including ATHX) lower as well, IMO.
If ATHX does dip below .50, selling pressure will lessen in the subsequent days with Aspire turned off.
IMO, a catalyst will be likely "datalock" PR from Helios in late April / early May. IMO, the data lock PR (if Helios decides to PR that event) will be a catalyst for short positions to start to cover. Why haven't shorts covered yet with stroke data around the corner? IMO, answer is because Helios only has a "plan" to release stroke data in May. With no evidence that Helios is firmly on-track with their "plan" and history suggesting plans always slip, shorts are comfortable staying put. IMO, "datalock" PR will change that thinking.
GL all.
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Post by selluwud on Apr 11, 2022 18:27:07 GMT
Fwiw Added more today at .50 Now back to 25% of my original position. My plan is to continue to add prior to stroke results, especially on any weakness. I'm being cautious adding for the reasons noted in my prior posts. If the XBI continues to pullback to the mid 80s on interest rate and other fears, it'll likely take most bios (including ATHX) lower as well, IMO. If ATHX does dip below .50, selling pressure will lessen in the subsequent days with Aspire turned off. IMO, a catalyst will be likely "datalock" PR from Helios in late April / early May. IMO, the data lock PR (if Helios decides to PR that event) will be a catalyst for short positions to start to cover. Why haven't shorts covered yet with stroke data around the corner? IMO, answer is because Helios only has a "plan" to release stroke data in May. With no evidence that Helios is firmly on-track with their "plan" and history suggesting plans always slip, shorts are comfortable staying put. IMO, "datalock" PR will change that thinking. GL all. Coincidentally moving today with volume?? Is that you jckrdu with the big buys?? I agree with your perspective, unfortunately I'm in for a little over a buck and need the help.
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 11, 2022 18:38:21 GMT
Fwiw Added more today at .50 Now back to 25% of my original position. My plan is to continue to add prior to stroke results, especially on any weakness. I'm being cautious adding for the reasons noted in my prior posts. If the XBI continues to pullback to the mid 80s on interest rate and other fears, it'll likely take most bios (including ATHX) lower as well, IMO. If ATHX does dip below .50, selling pressure will lessen in the subsequent days with Aspire turned off. IMO, a catalyst will be likely "datalock" PR from Helios in late April / early May. IMO, the data lock PR (if Helios decides to PR that event) will be a catalyst for short positions to start to cover. Why haven't shorts covered yet with stroke data around the corner? IMO, answer is because Helios only has a "plan" to release stroke data in May. With no evidence that Helios is firmly on-track with their "plan" and history suggesting plans always slip, shorts are comfortable staying put. IMO, "datalock" PR will change that thinking. GL all. Coincidentally moving today with volume?? Is that you jckrdu with the big buys?? I agree with your perspective, unfortunately I'm in for a little over a buck and need the help. Not me with any huge buys. I did add a little more earlier... now at 35% of my original position. Good to see some movement.
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Post by selluwud on Apr 11, 2022 19:46:03 GMT
Fwiw Added more today at .50 Now back to 25% of my original position. My plan is to continue to add prior to stroke results, especially on any weakness. I'm being cautious adding for the reasons noted in my prior posts. If the XBI continues to pullback to the mid 80s on interest rate and other fears, it'll likely take most bios (including ATHX) lower as well, IMO. If ATHX does dip below .50, selling pressure will lessen in the subsequent days with Aspire turned off. IMO, a catalyst will be likely "datalock" PR from Helios in late April / early May. IMO, the data lock PR (if Helios decides to PR that event) will be a catalyst for short positions to start to cover. Why haven't shorts covered yet with stroke data around the corner? IMO, answer is because Helios only has a "plan" to release stroke data in May. With no evidence that Helios is firmly on-track with their "plan" and history suggesting plans always slip, shorts are comfortable staying put. IMO, "datalock" PR will change that thinking. GL all. Coincidentally moving today with volume?? Is that you jckrdu with the big buys?? I agree with your perspective, unfortunately I'm in for a little over a buck and need the help. Something going on here??
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Post by tmfbmf on Apr 11, 2022 20:21:26 GMT
Coincidentally moving today with volume?? Is that you jckrdu with the big buys?? I agree with your perspective, unfortunately I'm in for a little over a buck and need the help. Something going on here?? <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> It was just a rehash of old data. The only thing I can think of is a partnership rumor.
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Post by eitherhalf on Apr 11, 2022 21:36:49 GMT
Yup! Something is happening here, What it is ain't exactly clear. But I bought more at .52 and although down I am excited to see (hear) whats that sound, everybody look whats goin down!!! lovely day today!!
Selluwud, I think help may be on the way.
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 12, 2022 19:19:30 GMT
Added more on pullback. GL all.
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 13, 2022 15:29:56 GMT
Fwiw Added more today at .50 Now back to 25% of my original position. My plan is to continue to add prior to stroke results, especially on any weakness. I'm being cautious adding for the reasons noted in my prior posts. If the XBI continues to pullback to the mid 80s on interest rate and other fears, it'll likely take most bios (including ATHX) lower as well, IMO. If ATHX does dip below .50, selling pressure will lessen in the subsequent days with Aspire turned off. IMO, a catalyst will be likely "datalock" PR from Helios in late April / early May.IMO, the data lock PR (if Helios decides to PR that event) will be a catalyst for short positions to start to cover. Why haven't shorts covered yet with stroke data around the corner? IMO, answer is because Helios only has a "plan" to release stroke data in May. With no evidence that Helios is firmly on-track with their "plan" and history suggesting plans always slip, shorts are comfortable staying put. IMO, "datalock" PR will change that thinking. GL all. In today's Needham conference, good to hear the new CEO guide for "mid-May" Treasure results from Helios, which aligns with BJ's recent guidance. While this guidance isn't the "datalock" catalyst I mentioned in my prior post above, it may serve the same purpose... which is to remove uncertainty on when Treasure results will be released. At some point, lower uncertainty should translate into increased buying pressure, from folks who want a position before results. XBI tailwinds would also help. I'm back to 70% of my original position in anticipation of positive Treasure results. GL all.
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Post by eitherhalf on Apr 13, 2022 17:23:58 GMT
When you buy, we seem to go High...er jckrdu. Gives me confidence. Wish I had flipped some though. Thanks for your input!
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 21, 2022 15:52:25 GMT
When you buy, we seem to go High...er jckrdu. Gives me confidence. Wish I had flipped some though. Thanks for your input! Let's hope we start stabilizing over .55 and trend up until data release. I'm back to 100% of my prior position. GL all!!!
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Post by ericchemist on Apr 25, 2022 15:22:39 GMT
Interesting that there has been a lot of call option activity for June. I am of the opinion that stroke is the 'make or break' issue for ATHX. Assuming that the trial results are positive and ATHX is on a firm pathway to success, then I would like to offer an idea for all to consider when thinking about potential applications for Multistem. An Article appeared in the Guardian this past Sunday www.theguardian.com/science/2022/apr/24/the-hidden-long-term-risks-of-surgery-it-give-peoples-brains-a-hard-timewhich discusses a condition referred to as postoperative cognitive disfunction (POCD). Although the causes are not entirely known, one hypothesis is that the major surgical procedures like joint replacements or heart surgery. Quote from the article: "Instead, many scientists are pinpointing the possibility that these symptoms arise through the body’s reaction to surgery itself. Big operations unleash a firestorm of inflammation in response to the acute tissue damage that can cross the blood-brain barrier. Because the brain contains the largest density of inflammatory receptors in the body, it is especially vulnerable to the effects of inflammation, which can damage sensitive regions." I have to wonder whether Multistem could become a pre-surgical treatment for major surgery at some point down the road when exploring additional applications for this technology? Just a thought. Good luck to all (except the shorts).
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