|
|
Post by eitherhalf on Apr 28, 2022 12:18:47 GMT
This seems quite possible. The body as a whole does react to trauma at any specific area. Looking at a preventative measure for major surgeries would make a great deal of sense. Thanks for this thought line.
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Apr 28, 2022 14:13:30 GMT
Added more.
Now at 125% of original position.
Will continue to add on pullbacks.
Will likely de-risk anything over 100% of original position before data release.
GL all.
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on Apr 29, 2022 16:23:50 GMT
Added more on pullback this morning to .51
Now at 150% of original position.
Will now sit tight and wait for results.
Still plan to take some off the table if we get a pre-data release run-up, which may have started today.
IMO, no reason why this can't move over $1.00 pps pre-data ($250M market cap) given that pivotal trial results are pending.
GL all.
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on May 13, 2022 15:08:19 GMT
Added more over past few days.
Will only de-risk a percentage of my holdings pre-data release if we get a pre-data run-up over $1.00, perhaps on datalock news.
Next news could be data release.
IMO, very good odds of statistically significant 365-day results (and 90 day) based on lessons learned and applied from prior Masters-1 trial:
> Better screening in placebo arm to prevent spontaneous recovery patients from being enrolled in placebo arm.
> Earlier treatment window where 36-48 hour treatment window is eliminated, driving all patients into 18-36 treatment window.
> Earlier treatment window added (18-24 hours) where better results are expected per Gil's comments documented on Page 87 of this thread.
> Much larger trial size makes it easier to demonstrate statistical significance of any treatment effect seen.
GL all.
|
|
|
|
Post by jckrdu on May 13, 2022 15:20:03 GMT
Added more over past few days. Will only de-risk a percentage of my holdings pre-data release if we get a pre-data run-up over $1.00, perhaps on datalock news. Next news could be data release. IMO, very good odds of statistically significant 365-day results (and 90 day) based on lessons learned and applied from prior Masters-1 trial: > Better screening in placebo arm to prevent spontaneous recovery patients from being enrolled in placebo arm. > Earlier treatment window where 36-48 hour treatment window is eliminated, driving all patients into 18-36 treatment window. > Earlier treatment window added (18-24 hours) where better results are expected per Gil's comments documented on Page 87 of this thread. > Much larger trial size makes it easier to demonstrate statistical significance of any treatment effect seen. GL all. Gil's comments back in 2015 on the earlier treatment window can be seen on Page 87 of this thread: "However, in order to challenge the assumption of whether earlier treatment with MultiStem is better, we went one step further, and analyzed the response rates among patients treated in the first 8 hours of our treatment window (meaning patients that received treatment in the 24 to 32 hour window post stroke), versus the second 8 hours (meaning 32 to 40 hours post stroke), and the last 8 hours (meaning 40 - 48 hours post stroke). If our hypothesis was correct, we predicted that the strongest responses would be seen in patients that received earlier treatment - and this is exactly what we observed. The largest responses occurred in the earliest treatment group, and the smallest responses occurred in the latest group."IMO, the above bodes well for Treasure statistically significant results. |
|
|
|
Post by lcd on May 13, 2022 21:34:50 GMT
I still hold a large number of shares, but have grown less optimistic about the data release as the share price lagged. I bought a few more shares this week in anticipation of a runup. I hope to not regret it. Good luck.
|
|
|
|
Post by eitherhalf on May 14, 2022 12:00:15 GMT
I remain optimistic (and prayerful). The wait is almost over and the rubber will meet the road in the coming days/weeks. It gives me even more confidence with Dan acting as Town Cryer for the future of the company. Here's to good results at the end of a very long road for many of you!! Cheers
oh,,,,and I bought more too!
|
|
|
|
Post by selluwud on May 20, 2022 11:40:04 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by eitherhalf on May 20, 2022 13:30:28 GMT
I have so many shares I have to wait to hear what Dan has to say later, I think today right?
I would use a stronger word than 'dang'...lol but should we wait or realize the loss is the question.
|
|
|
|
Post by selluwud on May 20, 2022 13:45:39 GMT
I have so many shares I have to wait to hear what Dan has to say later, I think today right? I would use a stronger word than 'dang'...lol but should we wait or realize the loss is the question. Actually, I'm in total shock/dismay thinking the Treasure study would redeem this snake oil of a therapy. I let my own wishful thinking and misguided belief in stem cell science influence my investment decisions. With the loss I'm taking at this point I'm taking a wait and see approach as it currently is looking for a bottom to bounce off of. |
|
toro
New Member
Posts: 19 
|
Post by toro on May 20, 2022 15:20:58 GMT
I have so many shares I have to wait to hear what Dan has to say later, I think today right? I would use a stronger word than 'dang'...lol but should we wait or realize the loss is the question. Actually, I'm in total shock/dismay thinking the Treasure study would redeem this snake oil of a therapy. I let my own wishful thinking and misguided belief in stem cell science influence my investment decisions. With the loss I'm taking at this point I'm taking a wait and see approach as it currently is looking for a bottom to bounce off of. I don't know what to say. I'm holding close to 100K of shares with an avg of $1.18. Sell? For what? I've had all my eggs in this basket accumulating since 2015, following the ACTC buyout, and hoping for a lottery hit here. I can only look forward to Masters results. If not, then pretty much my savings are gone. |
|
|
|
Post by lcd on May 20, 2022 15:57:07 GMT
I deliberated before buying more shares last week about my concern that there would be a data release before any runup but somehow talked myself into it. This has to be the last early stage biotech I ever invest in.
|
|
|
|
Post by sammy1 on May 20, 2022 17:20:34 GMT
Appreciate reading everyone's thoughts. Jckrdu....I believe you know this company more than anyone....whenever you have some time, can you share your opinion on ATHX moving forward?
I believe that a Reverse Split will likely take place. I'm not optimistic about Healios receiving conditional approval, which basically just leaves a potential partnership. I do believe that ATHX has some reasonably good data to draw interest, but based on the current share price, I see any partnership having very modest terms. That still doesn't get us above the $1 mark. Perhaps, a potential partnership and reverse split are done together.
On the morning conference call, there was a question about making tweaks to the trial design. In my opinion, Dan sounded very confident that this would not need to be done because he believes they'll have meaningful data under the current structure. Perhaps I'm misreading this sentiment, but Dan's tone and demeanor to that question made me believe that he genuinely feels that this company will have success.
My avg. price is $1.70ish....plan to hold for the remainder of the year. Jckrdu, in your opinion, is it realistic to think we'll see Masters2 top line data by April/May of next year? thanks
|
|
|
|
Post by imz72 on May 20, 2022 18:06:18 GMT
On the morning conference call, there was a question about making tweaks to the trial design. In my opinion, Dan sounded very confident that this would not need to be done because he believes they'll have meaningful data under the current structure. Perhaps I'm misreading this sentiment, but Dan's tone and demeanor to that question made me believe that he genuinely feels that this company will have success. Dan may have touched on this as well (I'm not able to go over the recording at the current time to verify it) but It was BJ and Dr. Eric Jenkins in response to a question from SMBC analyst David Hoang: vocaroo.com/1dwjxAq2qg0z |
|
|
|
Post by CM kipper007 on May 21, 2022 3:39:10 GMT
What an absolute shit show.
Is anyone at either company competent at running a trial, or is it this therapy just doesn't do anything?
They've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory more times than I can remember now.
|
|
|
|
Post by eitherhalf on May 21, 2022 10:34:59 GMT
The only decision now is to hold or sell for a huge loss. I have 73000 shares with prices ranging from 1.78 to .56. This effing sucks but must move on. We know the market makers take it up and down so I may just play the .05 swings from .25 to .30 to help average down but I will hold cause....what the ef else can ya do? Shit!!!!! lol
I mean "try to play the swings" cause I suck at that too....lol
|
|
|
|
Post by tmfbmf on May 21, 2022 14:41:15 GMT
A reverse split and capital raise now would be a disaster. The pps would come straight down. The TREASURE trial failed, but the data are probably good enough for conditional approval in Japan and the prospects still look pretty good for MASTERS II approval in the US and Europe. But how does ATHX survive to see those events next year? Investors need a Big Pharma company to legitimize the TREASURE data. This could be in the form of a JV or a buyout. If the data subsets (particularly for younger patients) are good, Dan can make some kind of deal soon. It won't be a good deal, but the company is desperate. The BOD shouldn't have let Hardy nix the JV a year and a half ago. If there's no JV or buyout soon, the company won't survive.
|
|
|
|
Post by CM kipper007 on May 21, 2022 21:03:09 GMT
Tmf, are you holding your position for now? A reverse split and capital raise now would be a disaster. The pps would come straight down. The TREASURE trial failed, but the data are probably good enough for conditional approval in Japan and the prospects still look pretty good for MASTERS II approval in the US and Europe. But how does ATHX survive to see those events next year? Investors need a Big Pharma company to legitimize the TREASURE data. This could be in the form of a JV or a buyout. If the data subsets (particularly for younger patients) are good, Dan can make some kind of deal soon. It won't be a good deal, but the company is desperate. The BOD shouldn't have let Hardy nix the JV a year and a half ago. If there's no JV or buyout soon, the company won't survive. |
|
|
|
Post by tmfbmf on May 22, 2022 0:01:14 GMT
Tmf, are you holding your position for now? A reverse split and capital raise now would be a disaster. The pps would come straight down. The TREASURE trial failed, but the data are probably good enough for conditional approval in Japan and the prospects still look pretty good for MASTERS II approval in the US and Europe. But how does ATHX survive to see those events next year? Investors need a Big Pharma company to legitimize the TREASURE data. This could be in the form of a JV or a buyout. If the data subsets (particularly for younger patients) are good, Dan can make some kind of deal soon. It won't be a good deal, but the company is desperate. The BOD shouldn't have let Hardy nix the JV a year and a half ago. If there's no JV or buyout soon, the company won't survive. Yes. I think the only way forward is a quick partnership. If it's enough upfront money, I'll keep holding. If it's a MESO-type b.s. partnership, I'll sell. |
|
|
|
Post by tmfbmf on May 22, 2022 0:10:25 GMT
Since Healios is talking about applying for ARDS approval based on the Japan and US studies, I added the two stroke studies together. I only have the 1 year data. (If anyone has TREASURE 90 day Excellent Outcome, please let me know.)
Excellent Outcome for the 2 studies at 1 yr:
Intent to treat: MS: 169 patients Placebo: 163
MS Excellent Outcome: 31 patients 18.3%
Placebo Excellent Outcome: 17 patients 10.4%
If the Multistem patients only had 27 patients (16%) reach EO we would be statistically significant with a p < 0.05. We're statistically significant with plenty of room to spare. There are definite "signs of efficacy" that should warrant conditional approval. My only question is, can we survive another year before Japan approval?
|
|
