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Post by CM kipper007 on May 22, 2022 3:33:08 GMT
Are we just drunk off this stock?
I'm reading Reddit and actually getting some hope...
Am I just drunk?
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Post by imz72 on May 22, 2022 13:01:30 GMT
Are we just drunk off this stock? I'm reading Reddit and actually getting some hope... Am I just drunk? Approval of MultiStem for stroke and ARDS in Japan and the rest of the world is far from being a lost case. But it will take more time and will cost Athersys' shareholders a lot of the profits they were hoping for. |
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Post by jckrdu on May 22, 2022 16:01:11 GMT
Appreciate reading everyone's thoughts. Jckrdu....I believe you know this company more than anyone....whenever you have some time, can you share your opinion on ATHX moving forward? I believe that a Reverse Split will likely take place. I'm not optimistic about Healios receiving conditional approval, which basically just leaves a potential partnership. I do believe that ATHX has some reasonably good data to draw interest, but based on the current share price, I see any partnership having very modest terms. That still doesn't get us above the $1 mark. Perhaps, a potential partnership and reverse split are done together. On the morning conference call, there was a question about making tweaks to the trial design. In my opinion, Dan sounded very confident that this would not need to be done because he believes they'll have meaningful data under the current structure. Perhaps I'm misreading this sentiment, but Dan's tone and demeanor to that question made me believe that he genuinely feels that this company will have success. My avg. price is $1.70ish....plan to hold for the remainder of the year. Jckrdu, in your opinion, is it realistic to think we'll see Masters2 top line data by April/May of next year? thanks My thoughts... Conditional approval in Japan - I think conditional approval is very possible based on the results. In fact, Hardy/Helios may submit asking for full approval and discuss/negotiate with the PMDA from there. IMO, trial results for safety and signs of efficacy were clearly met with Treasure results. Stroke sufferers in Japan have no other options. IMO, conditional approval at a minimum makes sense and is the likely outcome, as this scenario is exactly why the regenerative medicine laws were put in place. Conditional approval for other therapies has been granted in Japan for therapies with much smaller trials that were NOT randomized and NOT double blinded. Question is, when will the PMDA's decision or current viewpoints be given? That's an unknown. Hardy needs to provide a more detailed update on the timeline on the path forward to complete the application and get it submitted. Best case scenario for news to impact the ATHX pps in short-term is that Hardy releases a statement saying that he's had some preliminary discussions with the PMDA, and based on the results of those preliminary discussions they're moving forward with an application for approval which will be submitted by X date. Hopefully, Hardy's update on the path forward has some meat and ideally (maybe wishful thinking) includes some indication of the PMDA's initial thoughts and guidance. I MO, this more detailed information on the path forward is likely coming early this coming week as Hardy tries to mitigate the impacts to his pps. ATHX Partnership/licensing - Dan's going to do all he can to either partner or license in the next 30-60 days. IMO, on-going discussions have been occurring in the background so a quick partnership or licensing deal is doable in 30-60 days but still a high risk given the time-pressure he's under. Therefore, risk of near-term reverse split and dilution is on the table. Let's go Dan... work your connections and get a deal done to help mitigate the value destruction. Reduced Burnrate - IMO, we should hear about ATHX's plans to "significantly" reduce costs in the coming days. I'm expecting news Monday or shortly thereafter as Dan needs to show the market what the burnrate is going to be as ATHX waits for Masters2 readout. Masters2 Readout - IMO, Masters2 will be another flip of the coin binary readout in 2nd or more likely 3rd QTR 2023, as enrollment is likely not going to complete until sometime in Q1 2023. I think there are decent odds for success on the primary endpoint of MRS shift at 90-days per the reasons Dan & BJ stated (larger 300 patient trial with younger patients) but I'll be hedging before results as ATHX was "highly confident" the Treasure trial was going to be a success for various reasons. How I'm playing it: I still hold all my shares and actually added to my position on Friday after selling a good chunk at the open of pre-market, and then bought back lower... but too early. I'm going to wait to see how the potential near-term "pps recovery" catalysts above playout (Helios update on path forward with PMDA, ATHX potential partnership/licensing and ATHX reduced burn rate news). I'll likely lighten my position if pps recovers on any of that news, as the risk of a near-term reverse split and dilutive offering is on the table. Lastly, I don't think Dan is going to reverse split & dilute immediately, as he does have a small existing cash runway that will buy him close to 60 days (any Aspire $$$ and $3M Helios payment "by June" can extend that runway) to get a partnership or licensing deal done. IMO, Dan will execute his fiduciary duty to get the best deal possible for shareholders, so the reserve/split and heavy dilution option will only be executed as a last resort after he exhausts all potential partnering/licensing opportunities with potential partners. Go Dan. GL all. |
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Post by omstem on May 23, 2022 5:15:26 GMT
Thank you JCK for your insights. Truly appreciate them. Lot of people on this board respect your comments on this board and I am one among them.
Some of the observations I am going to make here are perhaps made by you too in the past. Considering the confusing situations the longs are here, I am going to take the following actions and some of my comments.
1. Convert what I have in IRA to Roth IRA. My tax liabilities are less now and I can wait till my retirement.
2. I won't add any more to my core position in my Investment Account till I get some clarity.
3. This company NEVER held its gains, so I may not even add any more to what I already have. I will let them ride and see what happens.
4. EU Deal that we have been talking for years, I can't see coming soon. Literally we have been talking about it as if it was happening this quarter for the last several years. I am not banking upon it soon. If it happens soon by some miracle, it is going to happen from position of weakness.(JCK already said this in different words). We are not in a position of strength to negotiate the best deal.
5. Hardy might still go ahead and chase the conditional approval. But it may not move the needle on PPS. Only conditional approval will move.
6. Yes, we gathered a lot of technical information that will help the Science. But that may help the mankind long in future, but not the longs who have been bag holders. (As a bag holder, I am OK with it as I may myself may need the medicine one day in future).
7. I am an investor and human being both. I want returns on my investment and I want human kind to get the best of the science. That applies even to the companies that I have not invested in.
Good Luck all.
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Post by twenty2 on May 27, 2022 15:56:32 GMT
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athx1
New Member
Posts: 7
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Post by athx1 on May 28, 2022 12:07:00 GMT
Great thoughts! Being a Clevelander, it was sad news when Dan Gilbert suffered his stroke. I could only hope that he be given MultiStem, but nothing was announced. He could be the deep pocket the company needs.
I believe as others, the market got it wrong with the Healios report. It does work and is safe.
I would not be surprised that he knows about the company and is always looking for an investment with enormous potential with global implications.
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Post by twenty2 on Jun 2, 2022 17:35:27 GMT
Also, at Reddit: "ATHX: Corporate Presentation pdf (5/31/22 - 48 Slides)" - link twenty2
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Post by tmfbmf on Jun 2, 2022 20:24:26 GMT
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Post by CM kipper007 on Jun 2, 2022 22:43:17 GMT
Think we will see a run in price? |
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Post by tmfbmf on Jun 2, 2022 22:58:16 GMT
Think we will see a run in price? I think we'll just get a pr someday, hopefully in July and hopefully >$2. But, if there are a few serious offers and wallstreet gets wind, there would be a big runup. Dan has 10M options at $0.86, so I don't think he entertains any offers below $1.86. |
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Post by selluwud on Jun 3, 2022 11:21:22 GMT
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Post by imz72 on Jun 3, 2022 12:23:48 GMT
Recording of 6.2.22 conference call: |
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pata
Junior Member
Posts: 52 
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Post by pata on Jun 4, 2022 20:57:33 GMT
Recording of 6.2.22 conference call: Thanks so much for posting the recording! |
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Post by CM kipper007 on Jun 6, 2022 22:23:02 GMT
Lot of volume today. 14m. Is this the start of a take over?
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Post by twenty2 on Jun 8, 2022 6:52:51 GMT
It should really be that simple...
Dan Camardo: "The main objective in treating STROKE patients is to help them recover in a meaningful way. The TREASURE trial demonstrated that MultiStem succeeds in helping patients to recover."
twenty2
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Post by selluwud on Jun 8, 2022 17:57:27 GMT
Picking up a little steam today......any news/info breaking??? More than avg. volume
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Post by imz72 on Jun 8, 2022 20:36:56 GMT
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Post by selluwud on Jun 9, 2022 11:07:07 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on Jun 9, 2022 13:26:35 GMT
Appreciate reading everyone's thoughts. Jckrdu....I believe you know this company more than anyone....whenever you have some time, can you share your opinion on ATHX moving forward? I believe that a Reverse Split will likely take place. I'm not optimistic about Healios receiving conditional approval, which basically just leaves a potential partnership. I do believe that ATHX has some reasonably good data to draw interest, but based on the current share price, I see any partnership having very modest terms. That still doesn't get us above the $1 mark. Perhaps, a potential partnership and reverse split are done together. On the morning conference call, there was a question about making tweaks to the trial design. In my opinion, Dan sounded very confident that this would not need to be done because he believes they'll have meaningful data under the current structure. Perhaps I'm misreading this sentiment, but Dan's tone and demeanor to that question made me believe that he genuinely feels that this company will have success. My avg. price is $1.70ish....plan to hold for the remainder of the year. Jckrdu, in your opinion, is it realistic to think we'll see Masters2 top line data by April/May of next year? thanks My thoughts... Conditional approval in Japan - I think conditional approval is very possible based on the results. In fact, Hardy/Helios may submit asking for full approval and discuss/negotiate with the PMDA from there. IMO, trial results for safety and signs of efficacy were clearly met with Treasure results. Stroke sufferers in Japan have no other options. IMO, conditional approval at a minimum makes sense and is the likely outcome, as this scenario is exactly why the regenerative medicine laws were put in place. Conditional approval for other therapies has been granted in Japan for therapies with much smaller trials that were NOT randomized and NOT double blinded. Question is, when will the PMDA's decision or current viewpoints be given? That's an unknown. Hardy needs to provide a more detailed update on the timeline on the path forward to complete the application and get it submitted. Best case scenario for news to impact the ATHX pps in short-term is that Hardy releases a statement saying that he's had some preliminary discussions with the PMDA, and based on the results of those preliminary discussions they're moving forward with an application for approval which will be submitted by X date. Hopefully, Hardy's update on the path forward has some meat and ideally (maybe wishful thinking) includes some indication of the PMDA's initial thoughts and guidance. I MO, this more detailed information on the path forward is likely coming early this coming week as Hardy tries to mitigate the impacts to his pps. ATHX Partnership/licensing - Dan's going to do all he can to either partner or license in the next 30-60 days. IMO, on-going discussions have been occurring in the background so a quick partnership or licensing deal is doable in 30-60 days but still a high risk given the time-pressure he's under. Therefore, risk of near-term reverse split and dilution is on the table. Let's go Dan... work your connections and get a deal done to help mitigate the value destruction. Reduced Burnrate - IMO, we should hear about ATHX's plans to "significantly" reduce costs in the coming days. I'm expecting news Monday or shortly thereafter as Dan needs to show the market what the burnrate is going to be as ATHX waits for Masters2 readout. Masters2 Readout - IMO, Masters2 will be another flip of the coin binary readout in 2nd or more likely 3rd QTR 2023, as enrollment is likely not going to complete until sometime in Q1 2023. I think there are decent odds for success on the primary endpoint of MRS shift at 90-days per the reasons Dan & BJ stated (larger 300 patient trial with younger patients) but I'll be hedging before results as ATHX was "highly confident" the Treasure trial was going to be a success for various reasons. How I'm playing it: I still hold all my shares and actually added to my position on Friday after selling a good chunk at the open of pre-market, and then bought back lower... but too early. I'm going to wait to see how the potential near-term "pps recovery" catalysts above playout (Helios update on path forward with PMDA, ATHX potential partnership/licensing and ATHX reduced burn rate news). I'll likely lighten my position if pps recovers on any of that news, as the risk of a near-term reverse split and dilutive offering is on the table. Lastly, I don't think Dan is going to reverse split & dilute immediately, as he does have a small existing cash runway that will buy him close to 60 days (any Aspire $$$ and $3M Helios payment "by June" can extend that runway) to get a partnership or licensing deal done. IMO, Dan will execute his fiduciary duty to get the best deal possible for shareholders, so the reserve/split and heavy dilution option will only be executed as a last resort after he exhausts all potential partnering/licensing opportunities with potential partners. Go Dan. GL all. FYI - Per the red text above in my prior post, the pps recovered to .40ish on the cost cutting news. I sold my position as risk of reverse and discounted capital raise has increased. Will look for a re-entry over the coming weeks & months, as I'm still bullish long term. |
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Post by selluwud on Jun 9, 2022 13:52:23 GMT
What are you thinking? 5:1 Reverse ?
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