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Post by jckrdu on Jun 9, 2022 14:13:23 GMT
What are you thinking? 5:1 Reverse ? IMO, anything's possible... including no reverse if Dan can get a decent partnership closed with $25M - $50M upfront cash executed in the next 6 weeks. That said, IMO because of time crunch and the fact that other companies move slow, most likely outcome is a 10:1 or 20:1 reverse, depending on where the pps is trading at the end of July. Target pps will be $5ish at a minimum IMO, so 10:1 reverse if pps is trading at .50, or 20:1 if pps is trading closer to .25 |
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Post by twenty2 on Jun 13, 2022 14:13:39 GMT
What question would you like to ask and, what would you like to learn at the ATHX KOL Panel Discussion: About TREASURE clinical trial results from Healios in Japan???
twenty2
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Post by twenty2 on Jun 15, 2022 6:26:43 GMT
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athx1
New Member
Posts: 7
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Post by athx1 on Jun 15, 2022 9:39:10 GMT
The comparison between MultiStem and tPa was significant. In the mid 90s tPa was a blockbuster and still the go to for up to 3 or so hours following stroke, but has serious consequences after the window. M/S is safe and effective and could be the blockbuster as an alternative but good for up to 36 hours!. Truly an exciting time once approval and financing is resolved.
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Post by jckrdu on Jun 15, 2022 19:18:24 GMT
Added back half my original position after this morning's KOL "sell the news effect".
Still lots of risk here IMO with low cash position and potential reverse & discounted capital raise looming after annual meeting at end of July.
I wanted to have a position in case Dan is able to secure a partnership and/or some type of "alternative" financing (possibly a private healthcare investor) between now and end of July. I'll re-asses on 7/28.
Also, release of additional Treasure data over the next 6 weeks could be in the cards as Dan works to get the PPS higher before the annual meeting and a potential reverse.
GL all.
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Post by imz72 on Jun 17, 2022 2:50:21 GMT
Two more video snippets from the KOL panel:
Dr. Mays: The design failed the cells (half a minute):
"I do know our friends at Healios had intended to have a different primary outcome. But in discussions with the regulators, it was decided that excellent outcome would be the primary endpoint. That led someone we spoke with at Athersys recently that they felt that the cells didn't fail the patients, the design failed the cells, which I thought was a prescient comment."
Dr. Wechsler and Dr. Mays: Why Excellent Outcome? (3 minutes):
Dr. Mays: "Lots of people. The same question keeps coming in and they come in, in the earlier questions, too. So Larry Wechsler, what do you think about the use of excellent outcome as an end point in TREASURE or in any potential trial?"
Dr. Wechsler: "Yes. So I think that was an unusual choice, maybe not the best choice from a number of viewpoints. So first of all, only a minority of people would be expected to achieve that. So there's a lot of improvement that can occur without getting to excellent outcome that you're not measuring there. And I think that you want to see that the things besides getting to the excellent outcome measures, it's -- I think the Rankin is, and particularly what we call the Rankin and shift is a better choice, and that's what's being used in MASTERS-2. It's a better choice because it covers the spectrum of outcomes, not just getting to that excellent outcome. That's great. I mean, it's great if we get people to the point that they have no deficit and no symptoms and excellent outcome, that's great.
But the other improvements, getting somebody who can't walk to be able to walk, getting someone who wasn't independent to be independent, that's important, too. If you've had a stroke, those things are important as well and change your life for the better. So looking at the spectrum of change in this shift analysis, I think, is the way to go. It's the better measure of whether a treatment is effective. And I think not only is it better from a trial point of view, but it's better from a clinical point of view. It's a more clinically important and relevant endpoint. And for us, as clinicians, if we have a treatment that across the spectrum of Rankin outcomes causes improvement across the whole spectrum, that's really important to us as clinicians because we know that's what's important to patients.
So the excellent outcome probably wasn't the best choice. I think MASTERS-2 is much better in that regard because we are using not only a better trial outcome, but a better clinically relevant outcome."
Dr. Mays: "Yes. Thanks, Larry. And yes, just one comment. I do know our friends at Healios had intended to have a different primary outcome. But in discussions with the regulators, it was decided that excellent outcome would be the primary endpoint. That led someone we spoke with at Athersys recently that they felt that the cells didn't fail the patients, the design failed the cells, which I thought was a prescient comment."
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athx1
New Member
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Post by athx1 on Jun 17, 2022 10:19:45 GMT
Something's up. High volume early and up 35%+. News coming?
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Post by selluwud on Jun 17, 2022 12:09:52 GMT
I haven't seen any news but ATHX is rolling along in premarket volume wise with a 40% jump in pps
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Post by imz72 on Jun 17, 2022 13:19:03 GMT
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Post by selluwud on Jun 17, 2022 18:31:42 GMT
Yep, all smoke but no fire! |
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Post by eitherhalf on Jun 24, 2022 20:09:39 GMT
Still Holding! Hoping for the best and trying to see it as (another) lesson if the worst occurs.
GLTA
Just really want an effing WIN though.
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Post by twenty2 on Jun 24, 2022 22:38:57 GMT
At Reddit...Fantasyland?...Or, a good FRAMEWORK for a Possible Partnership with Athersys... - linktwenty2
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Post by tmfbmf on Jun 29, 2022 1:10:13 GMT
If Athersys had any intention of staying on Nasdaq, they probably wouldn't have gotten rid of their CFO. If they go through with the reverse split, I suppose they could hire a CFO or name an existing employee as CFO, but I think Dan's real strategy is to quickly sell the company. So, how much is it worth?
They have 3 late stage trials currently enrolling, but I think the real value is the data they've compiled. Athersys has more data on stem cells (at least on MAPCs) and how they affect the human body than any company anywhere. I think this is worth at least $2/share (~$600 M). Hopefully more! I hope to see an offer before July 28th.
Anybody want to take a stab at how to value the company?
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Post by jckrdu on Jun 29, 2022 14:05:16 GMT
If Athersys had any intention of staying on Nasdaq, they probably wouldn't have gotten rid of their CFO. If they go through with the reverse split, I suppose they could hire a CFO or name an existing employee as CFO, but I think Dan's real strategy is to quickly sell the company. So, how much is it worth? They have 3 late stage trials currently enrolling, but I think the real value is the data they've compiled. Athersys has more data on stem cells (at least on MAPCs) and how they affect the human body than any company anywhere. I think this is worth at least $2/share (~$600 M). Hopefully more! I hope to see an offer before July 28th. Anybody want to take a stab at how to value the company? Agree that selling the company anywhere higher than Dan's options price of .86 would be a great outcome at this point. I've more than doubled my position and hold more ATHX shares than I ever have, on the possibility that Dan could either sell the company, land a partnership, or secure a private investor before 7/28. In the worst case, I do believe there will be more news coming before 7/28 (Treasure subset data, Helios plans in Japan announced for ARDs and/or stroke, etc) to attempt to get the pps higher if the plan is to do a reverse split & capital raise sometime after 7/28. (IMO, this is the more likely outcome.) If no major news before 7/28, I'll be de-risking. GL all. |
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Post by eitherhalf on Jun 30, 2022 16:26:25 GMT
"hold more ATHX shares than I ever have"
Yeah jcrdu, me too....except unfortunately not at these prices......lol!
Here's hopin you're right my friend
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Post by omstem on Jul 1, 2022 7:50:39 GMT
From what is going on, the only option seem to be selling the company for pennies. The science is good. The past management did not execute it well. Some of us who are on this board were on ATCC/Ocata board too that many felt that was sold for pennies. Again the execution was the issue. Science was good. They had Dr.Lanza whom I still consider one of the best in Stem Cell science. But what was the outcome? Ocata was sold for pennies. This company ATHX perhaps will go through the same. My last hope and the only hope with my investment in Stem Cell technologies is LCTX. But I am not going all. I just have a very very little portion of my investment.
Astellas bought Ocata. We still did not have any clue about the most important thing that Ocata was chasing at the time DRY AMD. How many years ago was that?
Good Luck Stem Cell science.
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goose
Junior Member
Posts: 84
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Post by goose on Jul 1, 2022 14:43:12 GMT
From what is going on, the only option seem to be selling the company for pennies. The science is good. The past management did not execute it well. Some of us who are on this board were on ATCC/Ocata board too that many felt that was sold for pennies. Again the execution was the issue. Science was good. They had Dr.Lanza whom I still consider one of the best in Stem Cell science. But what was the outcome? Ocata was sold for pennies. This company ATHX perhaps will go through the same. My last hope and the only hope with my investment in Stem Cell technologies is LCTX. But I am not going all. I just have a very very little portion of my investment. Astellas bought Ocata. We still did not have any clue about the most important thing that Ocata was chasing at the time DRY AMD. How many years ago was that? Good Luck Stem Cell science. It seems to me our best hope is that there are multiple interested parties. We know from Yak and the courts that there were multiple companies willing to partner on ARDS back then. It seems to me that the stroke data would likely only increase interest, not decrease. Anyways, time will tell. Hopefully not too much time… |
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Post by tmfbmf on Jul 2, 2022 16:45:21 GMT
From what is going on, the only option seem to be selling the company for pennies. The science is good. The past management did not execute it well. Some of us who are on this board were on ATCC/Ocata board too that many felt that was sold for pennies. Again the execution was the issue. Science was good. They had Dr.Lanza whom I still consider one of the best in Stem Cell science. But what was the outcome? Ocata was sold for pennies. This company ATHX perhaps will go through the same. My last hope and the only hope with my investment in Stem Cell technologies is LCTX. But I am not going all. I just have a very very little portion of my investment. Astellas bought Ocata. We still did not have any clue about the most important thing that Ocata was chasing at the time DRY AMD. How many years ago was that? Good Luck Stem Cell science. Astellas bought Ocata for $379M. That's a lot of pennies for a Phase I company. |
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Post by imz72 on Jul 2, 2022 19:51:42 GMT
If Athersys had any intention of staying on Nasdaq, they probably wouldn't have gotten rid of their CFO. If they go through with the reverse split, I suppose they could hire a CFO or name an existing employee as CFO, but I think Dan's real strategy is to quickly sell the company. So, how much is it worth? They have 3 late stage trials currently enrolling, but I think the real value is the data they've compiled. Athersys has more data on stem cells (at least on MAPCs) and how they affect the human body than any company anywhere. I think this is worth at least $2/share (~$600 M). Hopefully more! I hope to see an offer before July 28th. Anybody want to take a stab at how to value the company? I won't try to guess the value, but I'll just point out that in addition to it's 3 ongoing trials Athersys may be entitled to milestones payments from Healios of up to $450 million + royalties. Also, Athersys has an accumulative deficit of more than $600 million that the buyer can use for tax purposes. |
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Post by tmfbmf on Jul 6, 2022 20:21:51 GMT
I had a call with Dan and Karen. For legal reasons, I knew there would be a lot he couldn't precisely answer, but he answered as much as possible. I went into this hoping he would want to sell the company, but he doesn't seem like the type of person who will bail. My impressions:
1. He doesn't want to sell entire company but would for right price. (Right price is much higher) His preference is to partner stroke indication asap. (I think this will happen by end of Summer or early Fall). No companies walked away after Healios results. I got the impression he thinks he can get 2 yrs burn rate up front. New burn rate will be about 1/3 of old rate ~ $7M/q.
2. Healios will announce whether or not they will apply for conditional approval for ARDS and/or Stroke "soon." Athersys could include Japan in their ARDS trial if PMDA wants and it helps with approval process.
3. They will hire or appoint a CFO soon.
4. There's no reason to keep authorized shares at 600M if we're reverse splitting. He's considering lowering that. All options and RSUs will be split to the same extent. No one is gaining anything.
5. Company has no debt and no plans to take on debt bc debt holders would get a say in a potential partnership. (My impression is he has a lot of experience negotiating these things. He wants to do it himself and move fast.)
6. They will get rid of the manufacturing site they were building out in Stowe. Too expensive.
7. We have SPA for MASTERS 2. So, if we hit a p value of 0.05 or less, we (pretty much) will (almost definitely) get approved. But I never heard what corresponding Odd Ratio we need with that p value. They didn't give me an exact answer but I got the impression that 1.7 or 1.8 with a good p value will do it. Hoping to get a more exact answer at some point.
8. Most resources are going into MASTERS 2. Full enrollment Q1.
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Thank You!
