Athersys - Continue the Discussion

Small correction: Dan's options are at $0.86 pre-RS = $21.5 post-RS:

www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1368148/000136814822000010/xslF345X03/wf-form4_164487844952952.xml

22, Your advocacy is admirable and I can only hope it bears fruit for those who can bring this therapy to the people who need it.

Good to see Dan get 1 of the 3 items above done.
Two more to go in the weeks ahead (BARDA & IA) which should be more impactful to the pps than the animal deal.

Some additional thoughts...
Animal deal did not include any significant upfront cash but IMO still provides positive support for ATHX as it speaks to the promise of cell therapies and that companies like Ardent are still investing time & money to develop cell-based therapies.  Nice that they selected ATHX technology.

It'll be bullish if the pps can stabilize over .40 as we wait for additional news.
Nice to see ATHX recently hold while XBI/sector pulls back considerably.
IMO, if IA results were not positive (ATHX likely has the IA results as the IA was being done in Sept and announced in Oct, per Dan) Dan would have PR'd the bad news first, and then followed-up with good news.  Therefore and IMO, I take the positive Animal licensing deal news as an indicator that the IA news will also be positive.

IMO, expectation of those 2 pending news events will generate more near-term buying pressure.

GL all.

The 365-day MRS shift data was an ugly surprise that didn't align (at all) with prior 365-day positive data trends from multiple trials.  It'll be interesting to see if they're able to share any details on why the divergence to past data.

I sold the majority of my position after the bad IA, but I'm still holding a core position for the following reasons:

1. The dollar value of my remaining shares is very low, so if the risk of bankruptcy filing happens the risk of remaining losses is still low.

2. Dan is trying to sell the company ("strategic transaction" is the language used when trying to sell a company) and has at least 3 potential targets:

Two Potential Partners - In past updates Dan indicated he was talking to multiple partners about doing a large global or regional deal.  Those partners have done all the due diligence on ATHX.  While I don't think we can assume any potential partner would be interested in funding an expanded stroke trial with more patients, Dan didn't say that path forward was 100% off the table in that PR.  Assuming the stroke indication is dead (the most likely outcome IMO), one of those potential partners looking to make in-roads into the regenerative medicine / cell-therapy space could see value in the remaining pipeline and existing licensing deals Dan's put in place (i.e. $150M potential development/sales milestones from Helios plus royalties for ARDS, the DOD funded Trauma trial, etc.)  BARDA is also still on the table as a potential opportunity. 

Helios - Helios is paying $1.5M to $4.5 cash for global ARDS rights (1 indication), so they obviously see some value and were willing to pay for it. Doesn't seem out of the realm of possibilities that they would offer $20M for the entire company and rights to all indications; trauma, etc. The GVHD indication is ready for a Phase 3 trial. A competitor has a GVHD therapy already commercialized in Japan ... so just an example of where Helios could see some value.  Because Helios doesn't have a lot of $$$ to buy Athersys, some type of merger with Helios could also be one of the "strategic alternatives" that Dan and the BOD is working on, and perhaps would salvage some value for shareholders.

3.  Dan has shown the ability to get deals done.  Evidence is the recent animal rights deal and the MOU with Helios for global ARDS rights.  If there's ANY type of low-ball deal to be made to sell the company and salvage some value for shareholders - versus filing for bankruptcy - IMO Dan will get a deal done.  IMO, getting a deal done for .25+ PPS with 80M fully diluted shares would be a buyout at $20M+ doesn't seem like too much of a reach.

4.  Dan has to get something done soon, so the story will end one way or another over the next several weeks/months.

Disappointing IA outcome for sure.
GL all.

Yep, saw that.
Thanks IMZ.
I think it was a good move... gives him more time to explore all strategic alternatives without having to accept the first low-ball buy out offer.

Hey Actcfan,

ALDX is my largest holding and is worth a look.
Some quick notes....

PDUFA date for their lead indication Dry Eye disease (very large market) is 6 weeks away 11/23.
P values in multiple trials submitted with the NDA were all generally less than .01.  Many P values at .001.
No FDA Advisory Committee was formed to review their NDA, which is generally a good sign that the NDA will be approved.
In last conference at JP Morgan the CEO stated that their mid-cycle review with the FDA only lasted 8 minutes; no concerns surfaced at that time by FDA.
"Robust" partnership discussions ongoing since late 2022 with multiple potential partners and different deal terms.
Company only has 15 employees so lots of buyout speculation, as CEO has stated that they don't intend to commercialize themselves.  
Plan is to sell or partner their lead indication; Reproxalap
Quarterly conference calls were stopped since May as partnership discussions advance.
Xiadra is biggest competing Dry Eye product but it takes 2 weeks before it begins to start working.  
Reproxalap provides relief in minutes which is one of the biggest reasons why many are predicting quick market uptake of Reproxalap.
Not a steriod so proloned use is not an issue.
Impressive company with deep pipeline.  (An example is their chronic cough treatment where a competing product was bought out in Phase 2 for $2B.)
Very good cash position with more cash coming in partnership, if no buyout.

We can create a new thread if anyone wants to discuss ALDX.


Link to latest corporate deck.
ir.aldeyra.com/static-files/0a8bee44-e259-40d1-a7c5-82f9b08727b2

Thanks jck, I’ll take a look. Hope you’ve been well!