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Post by dayanand33 on Nov 26, 2014 16:49:56 GMT
wonder why is the company so quite on the PR front. The following prs are still pending A Phase 2 Trial of AMI MultiStem www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=NCT02277613&Search=SearchUlcerative Colitis : new locations added. trying to resurrect this trial again? clinicaltrials.gov/archive/NCT01240915/2014_10_29/changes Japanese PMD Act take effect (24th Nov). I have been waiting for these PRs all this while. |
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Post by dayanand33 on Dec 2, 2014 16:29:14 GMT
Sell, RLC: Found some other interesting information... The UC trial has been updated (see clinicaltrials.gov link below) with new locations. The updates were made 2 days ago on 10/29. As you know, the UC trial was the one funded and run by Pfizer, and early this year they announced it did not meet the Phase 2 efficacy endpoints. That was the reason ATHX plummeted from the $4s to the low $1s. Well, these changes on clinicaltrials.gov include new sites and changes to the status of the trial from "closed" to "Active Not Recruiting". While I can't be sure, it appears that this trial is continuing on in some fashion... perhaps with Pfizer funding a Phase 2 or 3 using multiple and higher doses. The earlier Phase 2 trial did show efficacy at 4 weeks, but not enough to meet the endpoints. That trial was run with only a single low dose. The CEO of ATHX made some statements that indicated he thought higher and repeated doses could make a difference. The above is speculation, but if Pfizer announces that they're pursuing an additional Phase 2 or 3 using higher and repeated doses, it'll be a bullish sign... as it'll indicate they have some confidence in Multi-Stem. I could see this running back up over $2 on that news alone. jck clinicaltrials.gov/archive/NCT01240915/2014_10_29/changesJim, Is there a way I can set up alerts to know about the progress made in a given clinical trial? Or do I need to manually go the relevant trial link and keep checking on a regular basis? |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 2, 2014 18:18:21 GMT
Sell, RLC: Found some other interesting information... The UC trial has been updated (see clinicaltrials.gov link below) with new locations. The updates were made 2 days ago on 10/29. As you know, the UC trial was the one funded and run by Pfizer, and early this year they announced it did not meet the Phase 2 efficacy endpoints. That was the reason ATHX plummeted from the $4s to the low $1s. Well, these changes on clinicaltrials.gov include new sites and changes to the status of the trial from "closed" to "Active Not Recruiting". While I can't be sure, it appears that this trial is continuing on in some fashion... perhaps with Pfizer funding a Phase 2 or 3 using multiple and higher doses. The earlier Phase 2 trial did show efficacy at 4 weeks, but not enough to meet the endpoints. That trial was run with only a single low dose. The CEO of ATHX made some statements that indicated he thought higher and repeated doses could make a difference. The above is speculation, but if Pfizer announces that they're pursuing an additional Phase 2 or 3 using higher and repeated doses, it'll be a bullish sign... as it'll indicate they have some confidence in Multi-Stem. I could see this running back up over $2 on that news alone. jck clinicaltrials.gov/archive/NCT01240915/2014_10_29/changesJim, Is there a way I can set up alerts to know about the progress made in a given clinical trial? Or do I need to manually go the relevant trial link and keep checking on a regular basis? Hey day - Only way I know is to manually review the trial for updates. |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 6, 2014 18:34:08 GMT
wonder why is the company so quite on the PR front. The following prs are still pending A Phase 2 Trial of AMI MultiStem www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=NCT02277613&Search=SearchUlcerative Colitis : new locations added. trying to resurrect this trial again? clinicaltrials.gov/archive/NCT01240915/2014_10_29/changes Japanese PMD Act take effect (24th Nov). I have been waiting for these PRs all this while. Agree, you really have to dig with this company to figure out what's going on. They just recently posted this new video on their Obesity program a few weeks ago on 11/21... link below. For the past year or so, the CEO has been alluding to a partnership of some kind happening to take that program forward. Could still see some tax loss selling with ATHX between now and the end of year, as it was trading much higher earlier this year before UC results. IMO, buying pressure in anticipation of stroke results in late 1st QTR 2015, and buying in anticipation of pending news events, will trump any tax loss selling. www.athersys.com/video.cfm |
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Post by dayanand33 on Dec 7, 2014 0:53:14 GMT
wonder why is the company so quite on the PR front. The following prs are still pending A Phase 2 Trial of AMI MultiStem www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=NCT02277613&Search=SearchUlcerative Colitis : new locations added. trying to resurrect this trial again? clinicaltrials.gov/archive/NCT01240915/2014_10_29/changes Japanese PMD Act take effect (24th Nov). I have been waiting for these PRs all this while. Agree, you really have to dig with this company to figure out what's going on. They just recently posted this new video on their Obesity program a few weeks ago on 11/21... link below. For the past year or so, the CEO has been alluding to a partnership of some kind happening to take that program forward. Could still see some tax loss selling with ATHX between now and the end of year, as it was trading much higher earlier this year before UC results. IMO, buying pressure in anticipation of stroke results in late 1st QTR 2015, and buying in anticipation of pending news events, will trump any tax loss selling. www.athersys.com/video.cfmDo you see them needing to raise cash in the near future? Could it be that they are accumulating good news for any future investor presentation? |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 7, 2014 14:42:36 GMT
Agree, you really have to dig with this company to figure out what's going on. They just recently posted this new video on their Obesity program a few weeks ago on 11/21... link below. For the past year or so, the CEO has been alluding to a partnership of some kind happening to take that program forward. Could still see some tax loss selling with ATHX between now and the end of year, as it was trading much higher earlier this year before UC results. IMO, buying pressure in anticipation of stroke results in late 1st QTR 2015, and buying in anticipation of pending news events, will trump any tax loss selling. www.athersys.com/video.cfmDo you see them needing to raise cash in the near future? Could it be that they are accumulating good news for any future investor presentation? I think they're ok cash wise until mid-ish 2015. They should have more than enough cash to get past the major stroke results milestone in late 1st QTR 2015. I'm not worried about their cash position because if stroke results are good (or show any signs of efficacy good enough to move forward in Japan), the company will be revalued some where north of $500M IMO, and if they do raise cash afterwards it'll be at a much higher pps... so it's not a concern of mine. If stroke results are bad (no signs of efficacy) we'll have bigger problems besides a looming cash raise.  |
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Post by dayanand33 on Dec 7, 2014 14:46:02 GMT
Do you see them needing to raise cash in the near future? Could it be that they are accumulating good news for any future investor presentation? I think they're ok cash wise until mid-ish 2015. They should have more than enough cash to get past the major stroke results milestone in late 1st QTR 2015. I'm not worried about their cash position because if stroke results are good (or show any signs of efficacy good enough to move forward in Japan), the company will be revalued some where north of $500M IMO, and if they do raise cash afterwards it'll be at a much higher pps... so it's not a concern of mine. If stroke results are bad (no signs of efficacy) we'll have bigger problems besides a looming cash raise. A good way to play this is build a good position now and sell it just prior to announcement of results. |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 7, 2014 15:05:11 GMT
I think they're ok cash wise until mid-ish 2015. They should have more than enough cash to get past the major stroke results milestone in late 1st QTR 2015. I'm not worried about their cash position because if stroke results are good (or show any signs of efficacy good enough to move forward in Japan), the company will be revalued some where north of $500M IMO, and if they do raise cash afterwards it'll be at a much higher pps... so it's not a concern of mine. If stroke results are bad (no signs of efficacy) we'll have bigger problems besides a looming cash raise. A good way to play this is build a good position now and sell it just prior to announcement of results. Kind of agree Day. I'm definetly going to lighten my position in ATHX before results, but still plan to hold a good sized chunk through results. Not sure just how much I'll hold because of the risk. More thoughts on the risk... The recent modification of the primary and secondary endpoints has somewhat mitigated the risks, IMO. Before the changes, the primary endpoint was the very high-level 5 point Modified Rankin Scale (MRS), which really put ATHX in a tight box in terms of meeting the primary endpoint.... either the multi-stem group got down to a MRS score of 2, or they didn't. The new endpoints are much more granular and will be able to more easily detect and meet the bar needed to achieve conditional approval in Japan of "Probable Efficacy". So, three major classifications of how stroke results will be... Homerun efficacy Probable efficacy No efficacy Given the new endpoints and what I've seen in the pre-clinical data, I think some measures of efficacy will be detected. We may see a drop in pps if they only announce results kind of in the second catagory of "probable efficacy" across some measurements of the more granular daily living functions, and neuroligical functions that are both now part of the endpoints. But, I think those results will still be good enough to enable the landing of a clinical trial partner in Japan, and either ATHX moving straight to conditional approval in Japan... or worst case the start of a new pivotal trial (funded by the new Japanese partner). In summary, I believe "no efficacy" has a 10% to 20% probability of happening. I see "probable efficacy" as the more likely outcome, which should mean very good things for ATHX. Lightening up before results is still a smart move as the market may initially react negatively to mixed results in the "probable efficacy" category, before rebounding on news that I think the CEO has lined up to come shortly afterwards... of a funded partnership to move forward in Japan. |
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Post by dayanand33 on Dec 10, 2014 2:03:35 GMT
Sadly the institutional holdings of ATHX reduced drastically to reduced to 11% www.nasdaq.com/symbol/athx/institutional-holdings/newThere was a big sell of in the 3rd quarter (almost 50% of the holdings) The good news started to trickle only in October. Hopefully they change their minds and start to buy. We need to keep a watch on this percentage in the 4th quarter. Institutional holdings has gone down further to 10%. The short interests is crazy - 10 times the average daily volume. How is one supposed to interpret the short interests data! I am surprised the pps is still holding reasonably well. In contrast the institutional holding for Stem has gone upto 20% and the short interest is also less. But the pps is abysmally low. Strange are the ways of penny land. Now I know why Jham lost all his hair :-) |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 10, 2014 14:22:03 GMT
Sadly the institutional holdings of ATHX reduced drastically to reduced to 11% www.nasdaq.com/symbol/athx/institutional-holdings/newThere was a big sell of in the 3rd quarter (almost 50% of the holdings) The good news started to trickle only in October. Hopefully they change their minds and start to buy. We need to keep a watch on this percentage in the 4th quarter. Institutional holdings has gone down further to 10%. The short interests is crazy - 10 times the average daily volume. How is one supposed to interpret the short interests data! I am surprised the pps is still holding reasonably well. In contrast the institutional holding for Stem has gone upto 20% and the short interest is also less. But the pps is abysmally low. Strange are the ways of penny land. Now I know why Jham lost all his hair :-) Brody on Yahoo just posted the below message on the "short interest" in ATHX. He's a pumper, but I've found him to be generally accurate with the information he repeatably pumps. He'll respond to you on Yahoo if you ask him where he's getting his information. It would surprise me if a large number of people were short on ATHX while sitting at $1.36, with all the pending news items coming. ________________________________ Short Interest dropped HUGE!.Short interest dropped below 2M shares! That's 2013 pre-UC results levels! Very bullish indicator. $$$$$$$ |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 10, 2014 14:31:17 GMT
I'll add that IMO ATHX is still at risk for some tax loss selling, as it was trading in the $4s, $3s and $2s earlier this year. Anyone who bought at those levels could be selling a portion for tax purposes. In general, I believe pending news will trump any tax loss selling, so I'm continuing to accumulate as ATHX dips.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 11, 2014 18:27:40 GMT
I'll add that IMO ATHX is still at risk for some tax loss selling, as it was trading in the $4s, $3s and $2s earlier this year. Anyone who bought at those levels could be selling a portion for tax purposes. In general, I believe pending news will trump any tax loss selling, so I'm continuing to accumulate as ATHX dips. Added more today on dip to $1.34. Tax loss selling dip IMO. IMO, ATHX will continue to be at risk of more tax loss selling until we get news. |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 16, 2014 14:59:37 GMT
I'll add that IMO ATHX is still at risk for some tax loss selling, as it was trading in the $4s, $3s and $2s earlier this year. Anyone who bought at those levels could be selling a portion for tax purposes. In general, I believe pending news will trump any tax loss selling, so I'm continuing to accumulate as ATHX dips. Added more today on dip to $1.34. Tax loss selling dip IMO. IMO, ATHX will continue to be at risk of more tax loss selling until we get news. Added more today at $1.23. Tax loss selling IMO is driving it lower. |
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Post by dayanand33 on Dec 16, 2014 17:01:37 GMT
Added more today on dip to $1.34. Tax loss selling dip IMO. IMO, ATHX will continue to be at risk of more tax loss selling until we get news. Added more today at $1.23. Tax loss selling IMO is driving it lower. Me too. I had sold 25% of my holding on the seeking alpha article. Buying back again. If they are on schedule, the last patient should be done by year end. I will sell some again on that news. |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 18, 2014 15:06:33 GMT
Averaged down again (and for the last time) in ATHX at $1.17 this morning. It's now official; I own more ATHX than I want. Hoping to see a PR that stroke enrollment has been completed before X-Mas as previously guided. Numerous other imminent catalysts still pending per previous posts. Risks are 1) continued tax loss selling from now until 12/31, and 2) stroke enrollment pushed back until sometime after 12/25. |
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Post by RLC on Dec 18, 2014 15:16:51 GMT
Averaged down again (and for the last time) in ATHX at $1.17 this morning. It's now official; I own more ATHX than I want. Hoping to see a PR that stroke enrollment has be completed before X-Mas as previously guided. Numerous other imminent catalysts still pending per previous posts. Risks are 1) continued tax loss selling from now until 12/31, and 2) stroke enrollment pushed back until sometime after 12/25. Damn great timing! Something is pushing this much higher right now... |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 18, 2014 15:32:29 GMT
Averaged down again (and for the last time) in ATHX at $1.17 this morning. It's now official; I own more ATHX than I want. Hoping to see a PR that stroke enrollment has be completed before X-Mas as previously guided. Numerous other imminent catalysts still pending per previous posts. Risks are 1) continued tax loss selling from now until 12/31, and 2) stroke enrollment pushed back until sometime after 12/25. Damn great timing! Something is pushing this much higher right now... Agree. While it was oversold (IMO), huge volume today points to some type of leak of news finally coming. We'll see. |
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Post by JHam on Dec 18, 2014 16:48:26 GMT
Nice job guys. Good buy Jckrdu at $1.17! Looks like you caught the bottom.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 19, 2014 17:13:23 GMT
Averaged down again (and for the last time) in ATHX at $1.17 this morning. It's now official; I own more ATHX than I want. Hoping to see a PR that stroke enrollment has been completed before X-Mas as previously guided. Numerous other imminent catalysts still pending per previous posts. Risks are 1) continued tax loss selling from now until 12/31, and 2) stroke enrollment pushed back until sometime after 12/25. On stroke enrollment, the CEO issued 3 updates over the past 6-8 months. With each update - while they did slip the date - the timeframe for enrollment completion was tightened down... First Update (Given in late spring 2014) - Guidance was stroke enrollment to be completed in "late summer". Second Update (Given in summer 2014) - Guidance was stroke enrollment to be completed in "October/November" timeframe. Third Update (Given in fall 2014) - Guidance was stroke enrollment to be completed "sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays". We're now at the tail end of the latest and most specific guided period for enrollment to be completed. IMO, good chance we see a PR next week that stroke enrollment has been completed, as IMO that would be the best time to release the news. |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 19, 2014 21:09:21 GMT
Averaged down again (and for the last time) in ATHX at $1.17 this morning. It's now official; I own more ATHX than I want. Hoping to see a PR that stroke enrollment has been completed before X-Mas as previously guided. Numerous other imminent catalysts still pending per previous posts. Risks are 1) continued tax loss selling from now until 12/31, and 2) stroke enrollment pushed back until sometime after 12/25. On stroke enrollment, the CEO issued 3 updates over the past 6-8 months. With each update - while they did slip the date - the timeframe for enrollment completion was tightened down... First Update (Given in late spring 2014) - Guidance was stroke enrollment to be completed in "late summer". Second Update (Given in summer 2014) - Guidance was stroke enrollment to be completed in "October/November" timeframe. Third Update (Given in fall 2014) - Guidance was stroke enrollment to be completed "sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays". We're now at the tail end of the latest and most specific guided period for enrollment to be completed. IMO, good chance we see a PR next week that stroke enrollment has been completed, as IMO that would be the best time to release the news. Nice close. Looks like some folks are thinking a PR next week is coming. Good weekend all. |
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