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Post by jckrdu on Jan 2, 2015 18:11:17 GMT
jckrdu, Using the bcli win to jump in here at 1.60 rather than putting more funds into ocat...been watching this one with you for a few months and feel very comfortable at this level... Thanks again for your contributions, BB I took a page out of avtech's playbook and opened a position here with BCLI profits. I like the cash position and that it is pretty beat down right now. The reason for the collapse (not meeting primary endpoint with the UC trial) reminds me of FOLD. I still need to do more DD on this, especially need to look more closely at the science, but so far I like what I see. I didn't open a huge position. Just enough that will be meaningful if the stroke data comes back positive, and won't be the end of the world if it isn't. P.S. Averaged at $1.57. Avtech / JHam - Good luck! It ran up over 13% on Wednesday, and so far today those gains have held, which IMO is a bullish sign.
Last year at this time it ran up from the $1s to the $4s on expectations of UC results. Many people are expecting a similar type of run-up prior to stroke results. While I'm not expecting to see the $4s prior to results, its possible... as ATHX hasn't partnered out stroke the way they partnered UC to Pfizer. Upside is much larger for stroke.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 2, 2015 21:09:57 GMT
I took a page out of avtech's playbook and opened a position here with BCLI profits. I like the cash position and that it is pretty beat down right now. The reason for the collapse (not meeting primary endpoint with the UC trial) reminds me of FOLD. I still need to do more DD on this, especially need to look more closely at the science, but so far I like what I see. I didn't open a huge position. Just enough that will be meaningful if the stroke data comes back positive, and won't be the end of the world if it isn't. P.S. Averaged at $1.57. Avtech / JHam - Good luck! It ran up over 13% on Wednesday, and so far today those gains have held, which IMO is a bullish sign.
Last year at this time it ran up from the $1s to the $4s on expectations of UC results. Many people are expecting a similar type of run-up prior to stroke results. While I'm not expecting to see the $4s prior to results, its possible... as ATHX hasn't partnered out stroke the way they partnered UC to Pfizer. Upside is much larger for stroke.
Another nice close at high of day on high volume.
Setting up well for next week. Would be great to see a non-stroke PR next week to start off the new year.
Great weekend all.
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Post by selluwud on Jan 5, 2015 15:32:02 GMT
You've got to love the slow creep (up) here building towards the end of the quarter.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 5, 2015 15:49:13 GMT
You've got to love the slow creep (up) here building towards the end of the quarter. Agree. Should start to get more news besides stroke.
Some additional "pumps" look like they're coming as well. Below is from the "Market Pulse" page of yahoo where a new ID is pumping ATHX with the promise of some in-depth articles after the pps moves above $2. __________________
bcqr
$ATHX 1coverage coming: icyendure.blogspot.in/2015/01/in-depth-look-at-year-ahead-2015-for.html BCLI news today is positive
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 5, 2015 15:57:51 GMT
You've got to love the slow creep (up) here building towards the end of the quarter. Agree. Should start to get more news besides stroke.
Some additional "pumps" look like they're coming as well. Below is from the "Market Pulse" page of yahoo where a new ID is pumping ATHX with the promise of some in-depth articles after the pps moves above $2. __________________
bcqr
$ATHX 1coverage coming: icyendure.blogspot.in/2015/01/in-depth-look-at-year-ahead-2015-for.html BCLI news today is positive
Great volume says ATHX should continue to trend higher. |
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Post by JHam on Jan 5, 2015 16:10:16 GMT
While I was enjoying a 12% gain in my first few days holding this stock, I decided to take some BCLI profits and double my position. Still what I would consider a small position, but enough to have a meaningful impact for me if this thing takes off. Thanks again to you guys for the dialogue on this one.
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Post by hophead on Jan 5, 2015 16:19:03 GMT
I'm going to wait for the next red day to start another position in this stock. I made a small profit last fall here, and I'm liking the upcoming catalysts you guys have stated. Thanks for the info...
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Post by RLC on Jan 5, 2015 17:31:32 GMT
Flew through the 200-day moving average of $1.68 today. Hopefully we create a new floor above $1.60 with this leg up. News not related to stroke trial results would definitely help in this regard!
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Post by hophead on Jan 5, 2015 17:33:53 GMT
I decided to buy a tiny amount today in the high 1.70s. Worse case it comes back to earth for a few weeks and i can average down. This puppy does look like it's ready to go up big time...
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Post by hophead on Jan 5, 2015 17:38:56 GMT
Disclaimer, i hate buying into a rally. Fully expecting to be averaging down over the next few weeks possibly...
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Post by RLC on Jan 5, 2015 17:48:20 GMT
Disclaimer, i hate buying into a rally. Fully expecting to be averaging down over the next few weeks possibly... I know what you mean Hop. If it makes you feel any better, I sold 20% of my stake here last week at $1.44 (sold just to free up some cash)  |
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Post by hophead on Jan 5, 2015 19:03:22 GMT
That sucks too rlc. Damned if you do as they say. Going to keep adding on any pullbacks here.
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Post by avtech on Jan 5, 2015 19:11:51 GMT
Well I just can't ignore this trend. Dumped the last of the bcli I held at 30% gain to purchase more of athx.
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Post by RLC on Jan 5, 2015 19:28:52 GMT
This is clearly a much stronger rally than the one we saw end of October/beginning of November. Moving much higher over the past few days on higher than average volume. Today is the first day since before the release of the UC trial data back around April of 2014 that ATHX has been trading above the 200-day MA. That's pretty significant IMO.  |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 5, 2015 19:56:16 GMT
Well I just can't ignore this trend. Dumped the last of the bcli I held at 30% gain to purchase more of athx. I think that'll prove to be a good decision sometime over the next 90 days. ATHX has a very enticing risk/reward profile - and now that stroke enrollment is completed - that enticing profile is bringing back buyers....
Japan has changed the game with their new legislation and the ability for a company to get "conditional approval" to sell their products in Japan if "probable efficacy" is reported from a Phase 2 trial.
So, what happens if ATHX reports some type of efficacy or "probable efficacy" from even a subset of patients on some endpoints in March/April 2015? They'll apply for and have a very good chance to be granted "conditional approval" in Japan. Japan is looking for other treatments for stroke besides tpa which only gets to 10% of the patients. Market cap won't be anywhere close to the current $140-ish million market cap if that plays out.
Worst case is (IMO) that the Phase 2 stroke results are good enough to land a partner in Japan to conduct a pivotal trial in Japan. In that scenario (funded partnership and pivotal trial in Japan), market cap/pps still translates into something higher than the current $140 million market cap and $1.80-ish pps.
IMO, this risk/reward profile should keep buyers active and sellers away. I'm not going to consider selling any ATHX until we're above $2.
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Post by RLC on Jan 5, 2015 20:07:58 GMT
Well I just can't ignore this trend. Dumped the last of the bcli I held at 30% gain to purchase more of athx. I think that'll prove to be a good decision sometime over the next 90 days. ATHX has a very enticing risk/reward profile - and now that stroke enrollment is completed - that enticing profile is bringing back buyers....
Japan has changed the game with their new legislation and the ability for a company to get "conditional approval" to sell their products in Japan if "probable efficacy" is reported from a Phase 2 trial.
So, what happens if ATHX reports some type of efficacy or "probable efficacy" from even a subset of patients on some endpoints in March/April 2015? They'll apply for and have a very good chance to be granted "conditional approval" in Japan. Japan is looking for other treatments for stroke besides tpa which only gets to 10% of the patients. Market cap won't be anywhere close to the current $140-ish million market cap if that plays out.
Worst case is (IMO) that the Phase 2 stroke results are good enough to land a partner in Japan to conduct a pivotal trial in Japan. In that scenario (funded partnership and pivotal trial in Japan), market cap/pps still translates into something higher than the current $140 million market cap and $1.80-ish pps.
IMO, this risk/reward profile should keep buyers active and sellers away. I'm not going to consider selling any ATHX until we're above $2.
Jck, On the bolded above, do you know if the new legislation will let them use data from foreign trials (i.e. FDA or MHRA sponsored) to gain approval to sell their products in Japan? I'm under the impression that a trial would have to be held in Japan to qualify for this, but a friend of mine doesn't seem to think this is the case. Thanks for any response! |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 5, 2015 20:15:16 GMT
I think that'll prove to be a good decision sometime over the next 90 days. ATHX has a very enticing risk/reward profile - and now that stroke enrollment is completed - that enticing profile is bringing back buyers....
Japan has changed the game with their new legislation and the ability for a company to get "conditional approval" to sell their products in Japan if "probable efficacy" is reported from a Phase 2 trial.
So, what happens if ATHX reports some type of efficacy or "probable efficacy" from even a subset of patients on some endpoints in March/April 2015? They'll apply for and have a very good chance to be granted "conditional approval" in Japan. Japan is looking for other treatments for stroke besides tpa which only gets to 10% of the patients. Market cap won't be anywhere close to the current $140-ish million market cap if that plays out.
Worst case is (IMO) that the Phase 2 stroke results are good enough to land a partner in Japan to conduct a pivotal trial in Japan. In that scenario (funded partnership and pivotal trial in Japan), market cap/pps still translates into something higher than the current $140 million market cap and $1.80-ish pps.
IMO, this risk/reward profile should keep buyers active and sellers away. I'm not going to consider selling any ATHX until we're above $2.
Jck, On the bolded above, do you know if the new legislation will let them use data from foreign trials (i.e. FDA or MHRA sponsered) to gain approval to sell their products in Japan? I'm under the impression that a trial would have to be held in Japan to qualify for this, but a friend of mine doesn't seem to think this is the case. Thanks for any response! RLC - Yes, per the Mesoblast PR on Japan's new legislation (ATHX hasn't even commented on it yet) trials/results can be run/obtained outside of Japan to get "conditional approval" in Japan. In parallel with that conditional approval, confirmatory trials need to be run on Japanese patients.
Also, per one of the last corporate presentation's in 4th Qtr last year, Gil stated that Multi-Stem has been approved for use in clinical trials in Japan. So, best case is they apply for and are granted "conditional approval" to start generating revenue in Japan immediately and kick-off a confirmatory parallel trial in Japan.... worst case is they start a pivotal trial with a Japanese partner. Per Gil, partnering in Japan is how they're going to move forward there.
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Post by RLC on Jan 5, 2015 20:21:52 GMT
Thanks for clarifying Jck. This is a really exciting initiative!
Greatly appreciate the response!
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Post by avtech on Jan 5, 2015 20:50:47 GMT
Jckrdu,
Thanx for sharing your thoughts here.
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Post by JHam on Jan 6, 2015 14:17:14 GMT
Up 6% in pre-market. Darni, I was hoping to add again today.
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