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Post by hophead on Jan 6, 2015 14:23:31 GMT
Agree jham. I was hoping for some profit taking so i can jump in too. Averaging up sucks...
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 6, 2015 14:53:30 GMT
Up 6% in pre-market. Darni, I was hoping to add again today. Gapped up this morning at the open. Opened higher moving to $1.97, and then retraced trying to fill the gap over $1.82. It made it back down to $1.87. No telling if the small gap left between $1.82 to $1.87 will fill. It may not with stroke results pending and institutional investors starting to rotate money back into the stock.
Updated mid term outlook - After the stroke enrollment PR was issued and ATHX was trading in the $1.30s, I speculated/posted that the pps would hit the "$2-ish" level within the next 90 days. Well, ATHX pretty much hit that already. As such, I'm revising my pre-stroke data release outlook to be a little more bullish...
Note that there's a gap in the chart going back to last April when the failed UC results were announced; ATHX closed at $2.73 and then opened much lower the next trading day on the UC PR. So, there's a big gap in the chart between $1.99 and $2.73. Gaps tend to get filled on both the downside and upside. IMO, given recent trading/volume and pending news, there's a very good chance ATHX fills that higher gap sometime over the next 90 days, and trades at $2.73 or higher.
GLTA.
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Post by selluwud on Jan 6, 2015 15:06:36 GMT
I'm loving this scenario with the BCLI run following by ATHX on their heels. I'd like to lighten my position around 2.50 or higher and hold enough either to add some more profit or not get hurt badly if the data isn't good.
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Post by RLC on Jan 6, 2015 15:33:09 GMT
Already above average volume early in the day today. We still have quite a ways to go until the data release (50 - 90 days away). Hopefully they can entice investors with something other than the data release anticipation over the next couple of months. Otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us fall back under $2 in the near term.
Still only at a ~$160 million MC, which if Phase 2 stroke results are good, is grossly undervalued IMO.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 6, 2015 17:15:57 GMT
Already above average volume early in the day today. We still have quite a ways to go until the data release (50 - 90 days away). Hopefully they can entice investors with something other than the data release anticipation over the next couple of months. Otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us fall back under $2 in the near term. Still only at a ~$160 million MC, which if Phase 2 stroke results are good, is grossly undervalued IMO. Very high volume continues. Trying to break through resistance at $2.10... not sure it'll get past that today as its already made another big move up.
IMO, even in the low $2s, institutional demand will be there on the prospects of positive stroke results leading to conditional approval in Japan. If that scenario plays out, ATHX is a likely 10+ bagger (even from the $2s IMO) in 6 months or so. IMO, institutions will continue to be buyers to ensure they're positioned for that potential positive scenario.
Regarding other news prior to stroke results, ideal scenario would be to see a PR on the UC trial, and that it's moving forward with Pfizer in some manner (perhaps a Phase 2b with repeated doses). Recent updates on clinicaltrials.gov suggest that the UC trial is still moving forward. A PR with any news on that front would send ATHX to the $3s in a hurry, as the only reason it retraced from the $3s & $4s was because of the poor UC results. News that Pfizer is still pursuing Multistem for UC would be a huge catalyst prior to stroke results.
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Post by RLC on Jan 6, 2015 17:17:04 GMT
Just unloaded a very small amount at $2.12 for about a 50% realized profit. I hope I'm not kicking myself later!
I have a gut feeling this is going to retrace over the next month or so before making a strong push in March.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 6, 2015 17:25:43 GMT
Just unloaded a very small amount at $2.12 for about a 50% realized profit. I hope I'm not kicking myself later! I have a gut feeling this is going to retrace over the next month or so before making a strong push in March. Congrats on taking some profits and booking a very nice return on those shares. You now have the option of buying back in lower if that gap from $1.82 to $1.87 fills.
I'm sitting tight as we're in the second day of trading in 2015... volume indicates that the institutions are reloading. Will keep an eye on things in the days ahead and may take some profits as well.
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Post by RLC on Jan 6, 2015 17:49:18 GMT
Just unloaded a very small amount at $2.12 for about a 50% realized profit. I hope I'm not kicking myself later! I have a gut feeling this is going to retrace over the next month or so before making a strong push in March. Congrats on taking some profits and booking a very nice return on those shares. You now have the option of buying back in lower if that gap from $1.82 to $1.87 fills.
I'm sitting tight as we're in the second day of trading in 2015... volume indicates that the institutions are reloading. Will keep an eye on things in the days ahead and may take some profits as well.
Thanks Jim... You're the reason I put this company back on my radar, so thank you very much for sharing your thoughts and DD here! It was hard for me to sell considering the upcoming catalysts, but I'm really trying to get in the habit of taking a portion of profits off the table when they're there. I've been burned too many times and a 50% gain is no chump change!! If this retraces below $1.90, I'll likely repurchase what I just sold plus more. |
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Post by JHam on Jan 6, 2015 19:33:16 GMT
Congrats RLC! Those are some huge profits over the past few days. I actually doubled my position once again right out of the gate at $1.90. I now basically have the same amount that I had in BCLI before it took off. A healthy medium position. Nice to see it run up to $2.14. After doing about 4 hours of reading up on this company today I feel pretty good about the chances this will run up prior to Phase 2 data, a la BCLI. Even though ATHX has some other irons in the fire, this is the big kahuna. It is a little nerve racking as this is such a binary event. Either the data is good and this thing takes off, or it is not good and it crashes. At these levels I do feel OK though since I believe we'll be higher than current levels when data is officially announced.
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Post by selluwud on Jan 6, 2015 19:41:58 GMT
Congrats RLC! Those are some huge profits over the past few days. I actually doubled my position once again right out of the gate at $1.90. I now basically have the same amount that I had in BCLI before it took off. A healthy medium position. Nice to see it run up to $2.14. After doing about 4 hours of reading up on this company today I feel pretty good about the chances this will run up prior to Phase 2 data, a la BCLI. Even though ATHX has some other irons in the fire, this is the big kahuna. It is a little nerve racking as this is such a binary event. Either the data is good and this thing takes off, or it is not good and it crashes. At these levels I do feel OK though since I believe we'll be higher than current levels when data is officially announced. I got burned when I didn't take enough profits on the run up before the Ulcerative Colitis (UC) results were released. (it tanked hard) Actually, not burned, as I still own those shares in the 2.00 range. I have since rebought in the 1.30's before this latest move. It is a gut call. I'd like to be a fly on the wall where the results are being assimilated. Should there be efficacy in the stroke trials it will be a thrilling ride. And vice versa. |
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Post by RLC on Jan 6, 2015 20:33:56 GMT
Congrats RLC! Those are some huge profits over the past few days. I actually doubled my position once again right out of the gate at $1.90. I now basically have the same amount that I had in BCLI before it took off. A healthy medium position. Nice to see it run up to $2.14. After doing about 4 hours of reading up on this company today I feel pretty good about the chances this will run up prior to Phase 2 data, a la BCLI. Even though ATHX has some other irons in the fire, this is the big kahuna. It is a little nerve racking as this is such a binary event. Either the data is good and this thing takes off, or it is not good and it crashes. At these levels I do feel OK though since I believe we'll be higher than current levels when data is officially announced. Thanks JHam! I'm likely to add to my position if there's any weakness in the coming weeks. I'd feel comfortable with a cost basis under $2 at this point. Luckily Jck caught my attention on this one early so I'm in at $1.43/share, which was why it was somewhat easy to take some profits at $2.12. My plan as of now is to take at least 50% off the table before the data is released, likely closer to 70%-80%. I do intend on keeping a meaningful position through the data release. Obviously things can change from here until then... |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 6, 2015 21:16:28 GMT
Another very nice 10% up day for ATHX. I especially liked the slight move up from 2-4 PM where it started consolidating around $2, and the heavy volume right at the end of the day. The longer it can trade/consolidate around $2 the better.
Over 3 million shares traded today (about 4% of the float); the vast majority traded over $2.
Overdue for news on AMI Phase 2 start.
Hoping to see some news on UC and GVHD. Wild card news is obesity partnership.
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Post by RLC on Jan 7, 2015 5:04:20 GMT
So I've been thinking about the type of market out there for a new stroke treatment.... The current treatment for Stroke is Activase (tPA) from Roche (developed at Genentech), which works by dissolving blood clots to enhance blood flow in the affected area of the brain. The problem with tPA is that it must be administered within 3 hours (4.5 max for a lucky few) to have a chance of improving recovery. Because of this small treatment window, it's estimated that less than 5% of Ischemic Stroke victims currently receive iPA treatment (actually estimated to be around 3%). Activase is used for some other indications (namely for heart attack on occasion to widen the window that a patient can receive an angioplasty), but Ischemic Stroke is the intended use for the drug. Activase sales for 2013 were $683 million. Remember that this is only being able to treat <5% of potential patients. Activase is also incredibly dangerous and has horrible side effects (severe bleeding, headaches, etc.) and is sometimes even deadly. The way I'm understanding it is that tPA is just stopping the damage as it's taking place during the critical first hours of reduced (or no) blood flow to an area of the brain (which is why it's so important it's administered immediately after stroke). It's not reversing damage. MultiStem has a different approach. It seems to aid in the actual repair of the brain tissue (neurons, blood vessels, etc.), helping stroke patients regain motor skills and neurological function. A huge benefit of MultiStem over tPA is that it's been shown to be successful being administered as late as one week after the stroke has taken place (although the company seems to be indicating within 2 days is the target). This would finally open up a treatment option to at least 80%+ (IMO) of the 95% of stroke victims that don't currently have an option. It seems like the best treatment option would be using both tPA (if you can get to a hospital in time) and MultiStem. But the heavy hitter of the two would definitely be MultiStem due to far higher number of potential patients. Below are the numbers I'm working with to estimate the possible market opportunity: - Annual sales of Activase/tPA are greater than $500 million
- Activase/tPA can only help less than 5% of stroke victims
- I'm going to assume that based on a 16x increase in the treatment window after stroke, MultiStem could help 85% of stroke victims
I personally think all of the above numbers are conservative, but this would give MultiStem access to 17x the number of patients of Activase. If MultiStem could get the same price per treatment as Activase, it would have annual sales for Ischemic Stroke of over $8.5 billion! Considering MultiStem is a brand new therapy (Activase approved in 1996) and is coming out of a brand new field of medicine, it's quite probable it will demand a far higher price per treatment. I know a lot of companies bloat the potential market for products in their pipeline, but I believe Athersy's when they say a new stroke treatment could generate a $15+ billion annual revenue stream....
Surely the market will start to consider the possibility of MultiStem being that treatment as we approach the initial release of the Phase 2 data. At roughly a $150 million MC and with a fairly diverse portfolio for a small cap biotech, we could see some pretty crazy PPS appreciation over the next couple of months. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see it hit $4/share before results are announced. Heck at $5/share it's still at less than a market cap of $400 million...
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Post by Yelk on Jan 7, 2015 5:10:08 GMT
I've been spending the last few days researching this company after this thread brought it to my attention. I've been following BCLI an CUR haven't been paying attention.
My decision was to open at the very least tomorrow a small position. Like mentioned a few times in this thread the potential upside is incredible. I hate to buy on the way up, but the decision is made!
Goodluck to all holders!
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 7, 2015 13:40:07 GMT
So I've been thinking about the type of market out there for a new stroke treatment.... The current treatment for Stroke is Activase (tPA) from Roche (developed at Genentech), which works by dissolving blood clots to enhance blood flow in the affected area of the brain. The problem with tPA is that it must be administered within 3 hours (4.5 max for a lucky few) to have a chance of improving recovery. Because of this small treatment window, it's estimated that less than 5% of Ischemic Stroke victims currently receive iPA treatment (actually estimated to be around 3%). Activase is used for some other indications (namely for heart attack on occasion to widen the window that a patient can receive an angioplasty), but Ischemic Stroke is the intended use for the drug. Activase sales for 2013 were $683 million. Remember that this is only being able to treat <5% of potential patients. Activase is also incredibly dangerous and has horrible side effects (severe bleeding, headaches, etc.) and is sometimes even deadly. The way I'm understanding it is that tPA is just stopping the damage as it's taking place during the critical first hours of reduced (or no) blood flow to an area of the brain (which is why it's so important it's administered immediately after stroke). It's not reversing damage. MultiStem has a different approach. It seems to aid in the actual repair of the brain tissue (neurons, blood vessels, etc.), helping stroke patients regain motor skills and neurological function. A huge benefit of MultiStem over tPA is that it's been shown to be successful being administered as late as one week after the stroke has taken place (although the company seems to be indicating within 2 days is the target). This would finally open up a treatment option to at least 80%+ (IMO) of the 95% of stroke victims that don't currently have an option. It seems like the best treatment option would be using both tPA (if you can get to a hospital in time) and MultiStem. But the heavy hitter of the two would definitely be MultiStem due to far higher number of potential patients. Below are the numbers I'm working with to estimate the possible market opportunity: - Annual sales of Activase/tPA are greater than $500 million
- Activase/tPA can only help less than 5% of stroke victims
- I'm going to assume that based on a 16x increase in the treatment window after stroke, MultiStem could help 85% of stroke victims
I personally think all of the above numbers are conservative, but this would give MultiStem access to 17x the number of patients of Activase. If MultiStem could get the same price per treatment as Activase, it would have annual sales for Ischemic Stroke of over $8.5 billion! Considering MultiStem is a brand new therapy (Activase approved in 1996) and is coming out of a brand new field of medicine, it's quite probable it will demand a far higher price per treatment. I know a lot of companies bloat the potential market for products in their pipeline, but I believe Athersy's when they say a new stroke treatment could generate a $15+ billion annual revenue stream....
Surely the market will start to consider the possibility of MultiStem being that treatment as we approach the initial release of the Phase 2 data. At roughly a $150 million MC and with a fairly diverse portfolio for a small cap biotech, we could see some pretty crazy PPS appreciation over the next couple of months. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see it hit $4/share before results are announced. Heck at $5/share it's still at less than a market cap of $400 million...
Good thoughts RLC. The below SA article by Wall Street Titan makes the same case in many of his articles on ATHX. Below is a link to one of his latest articles done a few months ago in November 2014 which focuses on the implications of Japan's new legislation, but also references another article he did where he came up with a $342 pps price target in 2019 (a ways away) if Phase 2 stroke data shows efficacy. That analysis was conservative as it's based on the US alone, not the worldwide market. Point is, the potential with ATHX is huge if they announce positive results, as stroke truly is a huge unmet medical need. Japan will jump at granting conditional approval if the data is good.
Wall Street Titan has done interviews with the ATHX CEO and IMO has a good handle on the potential and risks with ATHX. Anyone interested in ATHX can Google "Wall Street Titan and Athersys" to read more.
seekingalpha.com/article/2713165-athersys-could-benefit-immensely-from-japan-reimbursement-on-stroke
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 7, 2015 13:46:44 GMT
I've been spending the last few days researching this company after this thread brought it to my attention. I've been following BCLI an CUR haven't been paying attention. My decision was to open at the very least tomorrow a small position. Like mentioned a few times in this thread the potential upside is incredible. I hate to buy on the way up, but the decision is made! Goodluck to all holders! Welcome aboard Yelk and good luck!
It'll be interesting to see today's volume. Average volume (prior to the last 3 days) was about 350k shares per day. Over the last 3 days, the volume has doubled each day... first 700k, then 1.4M, and then 3M shares traded yesterday. IMO, recent volume points to institutions starting to increase their positions. Will be interesting to see how today's volume compares with that recent trend.
I'll be happy if we trade flat and consolidate anywhere close to $2 today. ATHX has made a 50% plus run over the recent weeks. Consolidating around $2 for a bit won't be a bad thing.
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Post by RLC on Jan 7, 2015 14:11:49 GMT
Good thoughts RLC. The below SA article by Wall Street Titan makes the same case in many of his articles on ATHX. Below is a link to one of his latest articles done a few months ago in November 2014 which focuses on the implications of Japan's new legislation, but also references another article he did where he came up with a $342 pps price target in 2019 (a ways away) if Phase 2 stroke data shows efficacy. That analysis was conservative as it's based on the US alone, not the worldwide market. Point is, the potential with ATHX is huge if they announce positive results, as stroke truly is a huge unmet medical need. Japan will jump at granting conditional approval if the data is good.
Wall Street Titan has done interviews with the ATHX CEO and IMO has a good handle on the potential and risks with ATHX. Anyone interested in ATHX can Google "Wall Street Titan and Athersys" to read more.
seekingalpha.com/article/2713165-athersys-could-benefit-immensely-from-japan-reimbursement-on-stroke
Thanks for posting this Jck! $342/share within 5 years?!?!? That would put ATHX at roughly a $25 billion MC. That's a 17,100% return! Seems like a long shot, but I guess with everything in perfect alignment, I could see it happening. Using my overly conservative $8.5/billion annual stroke sales number, it could easily be valued at that. New promising biotech companies are definitely priced at a premium (REGN trading at 15x sales). I'm getting more and more excited about ATHX! Fingers crossed that the stroke data is a very promising! Talk about a huge advancement in medicine. Can't believe only 3%-5% of stroke victims have a treatment option as of now. ATHX could be a household name very fast if they can change that. |
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Post by Yelk on Jan 7, 2015 14:47:25 GMT
I should have waited a few min before buying in this morning. Down 6% in 15 min. Oops haha. Oh well... in for the ride.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 7, 2015 15:00:28 GMT
Up 6% in pre-market. Darni, I was hoping to add again today. Gapped up this morning at the open. Opened higher moving to $1.97, and then retraced trying to fill the gap over $1.82. It made it back down to $1.87. No telling if the small gap left between $1.82 to $1.87 will fill. It may not with stroke results pending and institutional investors starting to rotate money back into the stock.
Updated mid term outlook - After the stroke enrollment PR was issued and ATHX was trading in the $1.30s, I speculated/posted that the pps would hit the "$2-ish" level within the next 90 days. Well, ATHX pretty much hit that already. As such, I'm revising my pre-stroke data release outlook to be a little more bullish...
Note that there's a gap in the chart going back to last April when the failed UC results were announced; ATHX closed at $2.73 and then opened much lower the next trading day on the UC PR. So, there's a big gap in the chart between $1.99 and $2.73. Gaps tend to get filled on both the downside and upside. IMO, given recent trading/volume and pending news, there's a very good chance ATHX fills that higher gap sometime over the next 90 days, and trades at $2.73 or higher.
GLTA.
Gap between $1.82 and $1.87 just filled. Let's see if support at $1.80 can hold. No more gaps in the ATHX chart. |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 7, 2015 15:28:22 GMT
Gapped up this morning at the open. Opened higher moving to $1.97, and then retraced trying to fill the gap over $1.82. It made it back down to $1.87. No telling if the small gap left between $1.82 to $1.87 will fill. It may not with stroke results pending and institutional investors starting to rotate money back into the stock.
Updated mid term outlook - After the stroke enrollment PR was issued and ATHX was trading in the $1.30s, I speculated/posted that the pps would hit the "$2-ish" level within the next 90 days. Well, ATHX pretty much hit that already. As such, I'm revising my pre-stroke data release outlook to be a little more bullish...
Note that there's a gap in the chart going back to last April when the failed UC results were announced; ATHX closed at $2.73 and then opened much lower the next trading day on the UC PR. So, there's a big gap in the chart between $1.99 and $2.73. Gaps tend to get filled on both the downside and upside. IMO, given recent trading/volume and pending news, there's a very good chance ATHX fills that higher gap sometime over the next 90 days, and trades at $2.73 or higher.
GLTA.
Gap between $1.82 and $1.87 just filled. Let's see if support at $1.80 can hold. No more gaps in the ATHX chart. Interesting how those gaps always seem to fill for any stock. Good news IMO to have that gap filled and behind us, as many traders/investors won't commit new money with recent gaps in a chart out there. Also good news that the gap was filled with a brief move lower, followed by a quick move back a bit higher. In my experience, that's what generally happens with stocks in a general uptrend. Hopefully things stabilize from here.
CEO speaks next week at a conference... don't recall the exact day. Hopefully, we get news before or at that conference, and volume picks up in advance on the expectation of some news on the business development front, which is overdue.
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