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Post by JHam on Nov 19, 2015 11:05:47 GMT
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Post by alcalde on Dec 8, 2015 21:54:17 GMT
Summary from the call: - Patients enrolled in TNBC trial and treatment so far is well tolerated. Investigators are eager for a combination PD-1/PDL-1 trial
- Data on Keytruda combo trial will almost certainly be presented at ASCO (PD guided 8 months, so June 2016 ASCO time frame)
- Strategic financing from November was necessary to support business through inflection points (data releases) and strengthen partnership talks
- Cash to last "through calendar Q1 2017" but will be opportunistic in raising more
- Cash controls in place, burn rate should decrease to $1.8MM/month
I didn't hear any current enrollment numbers from the Keytruda trial OR H&N trial. Did anyone catch those, if announced?
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Post by happyjawa on Dec 8, 2015 22:38:38 GMT
Summary from the call: - Patients enrolled in TNBC trial and treatment so far is well tolerated. Investigators are eager for a combination PD-1/PDL-1 trial
- Data on Keytruda combo trial will almost certainly be presented at ASCO (PD guided 8 months, so June 2016 ASCO time frame)
- Strategic financing from November was necessary to support business through inflection points (data releases) and strengthen partnership talks
- Cash to last "through calendar Q1 2017" but will be opportunistic in raising more
- Cash controls in place, burn rate should decrease to $1.8MM/month
I didn't hear any current enrollment numbers from the Keytruda trial OR H&N trial. Did anyone catch those, if announced?
Thanks for the summary. I was busy running errands, so I did not get to sit down and listen. I'll have wait for them to post the call on their website or catch a transcript if somebody posts one. |
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Post by ireilly on Dec 8, 2015 22:55:24 GMT
I didn't hear any current enrollment numbers from the Keytruda trial OR H&N trial. Did anyone catch those, if announced? He was very vague at least on the Keytruda trial. He said the milestone is to get 10 patients by the end of January and that they are on track to do so. At least that's how I thought I heard it - someone correct me if I'm wrong. Well yea, if they already had 8 patients in early October I would think they could get 2 more patients in three months. |
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Post by rbruf59 on Dec 8, 2015 23:27:54 GMT
He was very vague at least on the Keytruda trial. He said the milestone is to get 10 patients by the end of January and that they are on track to do so. At least that's how I thought I heard it - someone correct me if I'm wrong. Well yea, if they already had 8 patients in early October I would think they could get 2 more patients in three months. Someone, anyone, did I miss something, hopefully, ten patients in six months...maybe 41 patients in two years? Something is really wrong here. |
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Post by Titan V on Dec 9, 2015 1:33:52 GMT
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Post by JHam on Dec 9, 2015 2:10:34 GMT
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Post by craigakess on Dec 9, 2015 2:44:12 GMT
Looks like investors will have to weather the storm until June 2016. More dilution is a given as Oncosec is burning through $7M a quarter... no way Punit will allow funds to shrink to below $15M before then. As a general rule, he likes to keep 12 months in the bank at all times, so look for another round of dilution in Feb-Mar timeframe. I'm going to buy more as I still like the company, but fully expect to get cheap shares in the $1.50-$2.00 in Winter / Spring 2016 after the next cap raise. Looks like nothing brewing here until ASCO. All in my opinion. Good luck all! |
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Post by alcalde on Dec 9, 2015 3:15:59 GMT
Looks like investors will have to weather the storm until June 2016. More dilution is a given as Oncosec is burning through $7M a quarter... no way Punit will allow funds to shrink to below $15M before then. As a general rule, he likes to keep 12 months in the bank at all times, so look for another round of dilution in Feb-Mar timeframe. I'm going to buy more as I still like the company, but fully expect to get cheap shares in the $1.50-$2.00 in Winter / Spring 2016 after the next cap raise. Looks like nothing brewing here until ASCO. All in my opinion. Good luck all! Right, the next capital raise is a big question mark to me. PD always makes it seem like he's got plenty of cash and isn't going to raise then bam, another public offering. Otherwise I think we tread water around $2.5-3.5/sh ($50 million MC) till March, when we get news on the new lead candidate and new collaboration. Afterwards, we will be seeing A LOT of activity around ASCO and hopefully an increase in PPS as anticipation builds. - Keytruda trial interim data - H&N interim data - TNBC interim data If the monotherapy trials show a dramatic increase of TILs after immunopulse treatment AND the Keytruda trial shows evidence of a significant increase in response rates (due to increased TILs), then the market may finally connect the dots on the commercial potential and hopefully the PPS corrects accordingly. |
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Post by craigakess on Dec 9, 2015 5:06:42 GMT
Looks like investors will have to weather the storm until June 2016. More dilution is a given as Oncosec is burning through $7M a quarter... no way Punit will allow funds to shrink to below $15M before then. As a general rule, he likes to keep 12 months in the bank at all times, so look for another round of dilution in Feb-Mar timeframe. I'm going to buy more as I still like the company, but fully expect to get cheap shares in the $1.50-$2.00 in Winter / Spring 2016 after the next cap raise. Looks like nothing brewing here until ASCO. All in my opinion. Good luck all! Right, the next capital raise is a big question mark to me. PD always makes it seem like he's got plenty of cash and isn't going to raise then bam, another public offering. Otherwise I think we tread water around $2.5-3.5/sh ($50 million MC) till March, when we get news on the new lead candidate and new collaboration. Afterwards, we will be seeing A LOT of activity around ASCO and hopefully an increase in PPS as anticipation builds. - Keytruda trial interim data - H&N interim data - TNBC interim data If the monotherapy trials show a dramatic increase of TILs after immunopulse treatment AND the Keytruda trial shows evidence of a significant increase in response rates (due to increased TILs), then the market may finally connect the dots on the commercial potential and hopefully the PPS corrects accordingly. What makes me anxious... is the market really off here or do they know something we don't? Seems it's tough to keep good ideas/products a secret and the market has had a lot of time to digest this one... they show you what they think of ONCS. |
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Post by JHam on Dec 9, 2015 9:20:18 GMT
I just read the transcript and actually I thought it was pretty good.
The first thing that jumped out to me is this Q&A between an analyst and PD:
Unidentified Analyst
Okay. And then maybe finally you know we’ve seen some interesting new data on the T-vec combination with [Indiscernible], I believe. Kind of what are your thoughts on that and is this kind of a good indicator of the potential of that combination therapies can have?
What new data? Did Amgen and Merck release some new data on the combo trial? Anyway, here is PD's response:
Punit Dhillon
Yes, that’s a really good question. Obviously our relationship with T-vec is an interesting one. We certainly applaud T-vec for kind of validating the approach of an intratumoral therapy and I think that’s been really valuable to the field on the whole, to really put intratumoral approaches on the map, and it also puts out there a metric for us to try to beat.
We’ve discussed in many previous presentations why we think electroporation is a platform that has utility beyond those of oncologic viruses, specifically the lapse of neutralizing antibodies, the ease of CMC and my personal favorite is the ability to combine multiple payloads in a way that your standard viral platform is incapable of doing. So as we moved forward in a world of common arterial [ph] approaches, I think that will be a real benefit to our platform.
About the rest of the call. I think many of us are very understanding of the fact that the only thing that really matters is P2b data. With that in mind I didn't think there were any big surprises or disappointments and the name of the game is still patience. Here are some of my highlights:
- $34M COH as of Nov. 2015
- Burn rate expected to lower (under $2M)
- Next 4 months: announce new ImmunoPulse candidate, announce new industry collaboration
- Next 8 months: plan to announce preliminary data on P2 trials at conferences
- Have enough COH to get to 2017, but will raise again if a good opportunity presents itself
- The new device is currently transitioning from prototype to being clinically ready
- Ribbon cutting ceremony for the new facility in San Diego on Dec. 17th
I think it's very likely that we'll see another round of dilution before P2 prelim data sets are announced. That's just how it goes and that's early stage biotech for ya. I'd like to avoid it if possible, but for me, assuming the P2b data will turn out as we all hope, I'd rather take the dilution on the chin and be holding when that data is released. I imagine we'll see another runup to ASCO next year and I am not too concerned about being exposed to some dilution if that data is great. Big if I know, but I wouldn't be interested in this at all if I didn't think they are on to something.
That said, I didn't feel the urge to run out and load up on shares at the moment. It could continue to head lower. $1.50, as some are saying, seems like a stretch. That would be a $30M market cap. Who knows anymore though. If data is good then next year could be an exciting one.
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