Post by alcalde on Nov 27, 2015 21:28:35 GMT
As I watched Thanksgiving day football yesterday, an ad for BMS’ Opdivo (nivolumab) came on and it really hit me: immunotherapy is here in a big way. Opdivo (like Keytruda and others) will generate millions, if not billions, in sales and its response rates aren’t great (~30-40%) with almost 50% of patients experiencing SAEs during lung cancer clinical trials.
Within the next year (possibly as early as 6-7 months for ASCO), ONCS will generate data on the combination P2B Keytruda, H&N, and TNBC trials. If it turns out that immunopulse doubles response rates (or more!) while cutting SAEs then this will be *HUGE* news that could very well go mainstream. As we’ve seen with KBIO, AEZS, and others, when small/micro-cap biotech stocks go mainstream (particularly in such a high visibility field as cancer treatment) their stock goes nuts even though they were previously left for dead.
If the H&N and TNBC studies further prove the TIL theory, then the melanoma P2B study’s efficacy data may be roughly applied to those indications as well, further boosting near-term partnership potential.
I purchased ONCS shares with house money (profits) from holding KERX till the FDA approved their drug and I see a similar story happening here. A few years ago, KERX was beaten down and retails were crying to replace the CEO and that it was a scam stock. Once P3 results came out for Zerenex showing that it was the best mousetrap despite a crowded and competitive space, the company rocketed from $150MM market cap to $1.5 billion+ at FDA approval with only ONE "unsexy" drug and an inexperienced banker CEO.
I think ONCS has gotten beaten down because it is overwhelming held by squeamish retails that A) unrealistically expect a 400% gain within days or weeks of investing or B) unrealistically expect it to behave like a large-cap pharma stock like MRK and have everything go smoothly and expeditiously. I am not thrilled with the slump in PPS and the high burn rate, sure, but right now ONCS sits slightly above cash levels which values Pierce’s contributions, trial with Keytruda, and IP at next to nothing. In terms of progress, the company is far closer to blowing the doors off in 2016 at a $50mm MC on the nasdaq than in 2014 when it just had monotherapy data and a $150mm MC on the OTC. 2016 shall be interesting!
Within the next year (possibly as early as 6-7 months for ASCO), ONCS will generate data on the combination P2B Keytruda, H&N, and TNBC trials. If it turns out that immunopulse doubles response rates (or more!) while cutting SAEs then this will be *HUGE* news that could very well go mainstream. As we’ve seen with KBIO, AEZS, and others, when small/micro-cap biotech stocks go mainstream (particularly in such a high visibility field as cancer treatment) their stock goes nuts even though they were previously left for dead.
If the H&N and TNBC studies further prove the TIL theory, then the melanoma P2B study’s efficacy data may be roughly applied to those indications as well, further boosting near-term partnership potential.
I purchased ONCS shares with house money (profits) from holding KERX till the FDA approved their drug and I see a similar story happening here. A few years ago, KERX was beaten down and retails were crying to replace the CEO and that it was a scam stock. Once P3 results came out for Zerenex showing that it was the best mousetrap despite a crowded and competitive space, the company rocketed from $150MM market cap to $1.5 billion+ at FDA approval with only ONE "unsexy" drug and an inexperienced banker CEO.
I think ONCS has gotten beaten down because it is overwhelming held by squeamish retails that A) unrealistically expect a 400% gain within days or weeks of investing or B) unrealistically expect it to behave like a large-cap pharma stock like MRK and have everything go smoothly and expeditiously. I am not thrilled with the slump in PPS and the high burn rate, sure, but right now ONCS sits slightly above cash levels which values Pierce’s contributions, trial with Keytruda, and IP at next to nothing. In terms of progress, the company is far closer to blowing the doors off in 2016 at a $50mm MC on the nasdaq than in 2014 when it just had monotherapy data and a $150mm MC on the OTC. 2016 shall be interesting!
