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Post by JHam on Jan 8, 2016 11:30:36 GMT
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Post by lovie350z on Jan 8, 2016 12:46:13 GMT
Glad he got it done! Re entered around mid December just in case Athersys announced this partnership early, was thinking March. Congrats all!
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Post by selluwud on Jan 8, 2016 12:49:42 GMT
JHam, from your time spent in Japan do you know much about Healios and how they compare to Chugai as a partner for ATHX. I'm just asking as I don't have much time for doing in depth research. thanks. |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 8, 2016 14:22:02 GMT
ATHX Update - Japan partnership announced. Looks like a great deal for Athersys; $15 million upfront plus $350M development milestones plus $185M sales milestones. I am NOT selling on this news as Athersys is still in discussions to license stroke for the US and European markets. This deal with Japan gives an idea of the type of deal that's coming sometime in 2016 for the US and Europe.
EDIT: I misread the PR. Development milestones are only $30M, not $350M. IMO, while $30 million should go a long way to cover the 100% of the stroke trial costs in Japan, it's less than the development milestones with the old Chugai deal. PPS may not be "flying" higher due to only getting $30M, and perhaps some concerns of more cash needed for the stroke trial. I don't share that concern, as $30M should suffice.
www.athersys.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=949491 |
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Post by Wallace907 on Jan 8, 2016 14:22:42 GMT
JHam, from your time spent in Japan do you know much about Healios and how they compare to Chugai as a partner for ATHX. I'm just asking as I don't have much time for doing in depth research. thanks. I thought Dainippon Sumitomo would be a very strong partner for Ocata. If I recall, they hold some really strong IP for regenerative medicine (cryogenic transportation). I believe they also are partners with the IPS institutes/Yamanaka. Ocata shareholders are scratching their heads right now. |
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Post by Macgruber on Jan 8, 2016 15:55:19 GMT
Congrats jckrdu and all holding here. I know you guys have been rolling with the punches here awhile, happy to see the good news roll in! ATHX Update - Japan partnership announced. Looks like a great deal for Athersys; $15 million upfront plus $350M development milestones plus $185M sales milestones. I am NOT selling on this news as Athersys is still in discussions to license stroke for the US and European markets. This deal with Japan gives an idea of the type of deal that's coming sometime in 2016 for the US and Europe.
EDIT: I misread the PR. Development milestones are only $30M, not $350M. IMO, while $30 million should go a long way to cover the 100% of the stroke trial costs in Japan, it's less than the development milestones with the old Chugai deal. PPS may not be "flying" higher due to only getting $30M, and perhaps some concerns of more cash needed for the stroke trial. I don't share that concern, as $30M should suffice.
www.athersys.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=949491 |
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 8, 2016 16:00:19 GMT
Congrats jckrdu and all holding here. I know you guys have been rolling with the punches here awhile, happy to see the good news roll in! ATHX Update - Japan partnership announced. Looks like a great deal for Athersys; $15 million upfront plus $350M development milestones plus $185M sales milestones. I am NOT selling on this news as Athersys is still in discussions to license stroke for the US and European markets. This deal with Japan gives an idea of the type of deal that's coming sometime in 2016 for the US and Europe.
EDIT: I misread the PR. Development milestones are only $30M, not $350M. IMO, while $30 million should go a long way to cover the 100% of the stroke trial costs in Japan, it's less than the development milestones with the old Chugai deal. PPS may not be "flying" higher due to only getting $30M, and perhaps some concerns of more cash needed for the stroke trial. I don't share that concern, as $30M should suffice.
www.athersys.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=949491 Thanks Mac. Been a long hold. 
IMO, $1.20 is under-valued. Higher gap in chart from $1.54 - $2.18 is likely to fill on next partnership announcement, likely for the EU... and then maybe another one for the US. I expect the EU partnership PR sometime in the first half of this year, as Gil wants to get the Phase 2 stroke trial going on a global basis.
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Post by guruzim on Jan 8, 2016 17:43:27 GMT
Ugh. Torn between offloading OCAT and buying this now while its on the way up... or holding OCAT to the bitter end. Would have flipped my Caladrius into this but it tanked yesterday. My timing is terrible.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 8, 2016 19:16:59 GMT
Sent this earlier today.... ATHX - Additional thoughts... See below for link to the November 5, 2015 conference call. Go to minute 15:00 to hear Gil talk about the Japan partnership, which was announced today. At minute 16:50, he starts talking about the fact that they're having (back last year) "multiple discussions with potential partners" outside of Japan for stroke and other indications. In my opinion, today's partnership news in Japan is the first - but not the last - partnership news we're going to hear from Athersys. In terms of timing, we know Gil wants to get the Phase 2 trial going for MultiStem/stroke on a global basis... he's stated that goal before. We know from today's PR that they expect to start the stroke trial in Japan in the 2nd half of 2016. IMO, that's pointing to a Phase 2 trial for stroke starting in Europe and the US in the 2nd half of 2016 as well. IMO, odds are we see another partnership for stroke in Europe (and maybe the US) before the first half of 2016, as I believe Athersys is working to align both the Japan and Europe/US trials so they're coordinated on a global basis. He's spoke/alluded to that approach before. IMO, he'll generate more cash by doing a partnership for stroke in Europe, but will retain rights to the US market until after Phase 2 results are out. I added more at $1.25 earlier today. Now allocated 70% ATHX waiting for additional partnership news. edge.media-server.com/m/p/5srfsna4 |
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Post by lovie350z on Jan 8, 2016 19:35:19 GMT
Appreciate your thoughts Jck! Almost sold some this morning but ended up adding a little more around 1.22. Thanks for the reminder on Athx pursuing a possible partner in Europe/US for their trials, forgot about that.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 8, 2016 19:51:49 GMT
Appreciate your thoughts Jck! Almost sold some this morning but ended up adding a little more around 1.22. Thanks for the reminder on Athx pursuing a possible partner in Europe/US for their trials, forgot about that. Hoping/expecting that higher gap from $1.54-$2.18 to fill on the next partnership news.
Gil and his team know how to get deals done.
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Post by selluwud on Jan 8, 2016 20:58:39 GMT
Volume looks like the institutions are coming back
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Post by Yelk on Jan 8, 2016 21:29:10 GMT
Was watching price action all day. Sold heavily at start, but markets have been bloody last 2 days. It held very well into late afternoon when markets were in dangerous ground.
Imo - whoever wanted out of this was out end of year. Now people who were in before are looking for new entry, new people are looking for entry and day traders are in on the acbd bullish patterns. I agree strongly with jckrdu price expectations and think if the markets are to recover next week or soon it should remain fairly strong in the 1.20s++-1.50s area. I will be looking to long this Monday using 1.20s as a guide.
Congratulations to everyone who held.
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Post by survtech on Jan 9, 2016 4:58:00 GMT
A little background on Healios. Healios K.K. is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) as 4593.T. There are 40.65M shares outstanding at a PPS equivalent of $9.63 USD giving them a market cap of approximately $391M. They are a young company, having been formed in 2011 and IPO last year. The CEO is Hardy TS Kagimoto, MD. According to the company website: "Hardy TS Kagimoto founded a biotech company after working at Kyushu University Hospital, where he developed an adjuvant to stain containing BBG250 (which had been invented by Kyushu University in Japan). The product was launched in Europe after a self-conducted Phase III study in India and the US, and is now established de-facto-standard status in ophthalmic surgery.
He then founded Healios K.K. in 2011 to realize his driving objective, the development of a therapy for age-related macular degeneration."
He also says "After graduating from medical school, I had an opportunity to work as an intern in Silicon Valley in the US. There, I observed the dynamic ways that bioventures took the latest research findings and promptly brought them to market as viable products."
The company's focus has been on iPSC cells.
"Healios undertakes research and development to provide RPE cell drugs made from differentiated iPS cells in the practical application of new treatment methods.
Based on our expertise with methods developed by researchers from RIKEN for the differentiation of RPE cells, we have succeeded in applying our own unique knowhow to establish an effective culturing method. Our Kobe laboratory has more than 20 staff, including an ophthalmologist and three PhDs, who research the formulation of these cells for surgery and the administering of drugs to people affected with age-related macular degeneration, while at the same time, developing safe and efficient production methods.
Since 2014, we have also been working with Osaka University in an industry-academic collaboration to further research and development of iPS cell-related technologies through a joint research chair in cell manufacturing system engineering.
2. Non-ophthalmology efforts
The overall research and development base for iPSC regenerative medicine has been expanding with the publication of related research results by numerous independent research entities. The Healios policy is to focus its efforts on pursuing promising work and conducting related joint research with the aim of developing practical applications. Based on this policy we have already begun joint research with Yokohama City University on human organs and, as a platform technology for various organs, plan to expand beyond the ophthalmologic field into research and development of treatment methods for other organs, the goal of which is to cause the least damage to the human body and prevent immunological rejection."
I believe that their experience with iPSC cells and their small size make them a better choice as partners than Chugai. Chugai was looking for a home run and when the IS trial produced a double, Chugai decided it wasn't worth skipping a couple of catered lunches to continue. I believe Healios is in it for the long pull and as a small and nimble company, are not subject to the bureaucracy and fear of perceived failure that the big guys have. To show that they mean business, Healios actually took out 2B Yen in loans (around $17M USD) from four banks to finance the initial payment. That shows a solid belief in MultiStem and proves their willingness to take risks for big rewards (like us ;-)) Reuters ArticleHealios' PipelineHealios Business StructureOfficers |
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Post by survtech on Jan 9, 2016 16:17:10 GMT
"...the goal of which is to cause the least damage to the human body and prevent immunological rejection."
I think that's a very telling statement. And that was written before the partnership agreement was even being negotiated. Exactly what the MOA of MultiStem appears to be.
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Post by survtech on Jan 9, 2016 17:39:14 GMT
Of further interest to both science and investors will be watching how the synergies between Healios' iPSC and MultiStem play out. My research indicates that although each type of stem cell may have specific clinical benefits, a strong case could be made for additional or increased benefits obtained by combining different cells into specific treatments.
After all, living organisms contain many types of cells and the exact roles each type play and their interactions are not well understood.
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