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Post by furbush87 on Feb 6, 2016 20:07:53 GMT
I spoke at length with Punit this week, and I'm going to post parts of the conversation as I have time, it was over an hour, so it will take me some time.
Punit feels that the big issues facing stock price right now is that few people are really able to follow what they are doing, having NeoPulse and not pursuing it, doing MCC and T-Cell Lymphoma and not pursuing them, so people dont see what they are doing and understand where the company is going. Why decisions are made etc.
2 trials that are important, Phase2B and TNBC, both will most likely lead to a Registration trial for combination with Keytruda for melanoma, and a combination of IL-12 and a new drug for Phase 1B in TNBC.
They have limited resources and are really trying to focus all their attention into these 2 and only these 2
Heat Pre-clinical data should be available later this year (I guess late April), Plexxikon the trial is done, but they have not decided if they are proceeding further. We may not see that data.
Phase 2B Interim data later this year (I expect at the electroporation conference in Aug/Sept), from the sound of it, they are progressing at a very respectable enrollment pace. He didn't say exactly, but I'd guess 3-4 a month. They are using their Perkins machine that they developed in the screening process. The big key here is that OncoSec is the ONLY company that is doing a trial with patients screened to not respond to Keytruda. So, If they get to the market, and provide a screening that shows who will not respond, there will only be one product that is FDA approved. If they aren't screened then the Dr.s may just use the shotgun approach of some other combination, now it is for the insurance to dictate which is lowest priced/ best bang for the buck. Big point is they will be the only FDA approved treatment for non responders of PD1
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 6, 2016 22:05:50 GMT
I think both Heat and Plexxikon will end up in partnerships. The Heat one won't happen till late this year as ONCS will have to pay for part of the trial and they are conserving cash. Plexxikon is the one I am not as confident about, but at least they could pay for the trial if they choose to, from my conversation I don't think Punit knows if that is going to go anywhere either.
The first conversation he said "no one would get bonuses" the 2nd time they were "seriously considering" not giving bonuses, so we'll see where that goes.
Dr. Pierce is 100% not going to be leaving the company, and is fully engaged in the process. Dr. Adil Daud is still heavily involved in their daily activities.
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 6, 2016 23:20:32 GMT
I'm putting together a timeline of events that I now believe will happen. I'll post it here once I've got it ordered in what I believe to be an accurate manner.
I don't know how many warrants are out there right now, but I know 2 lots of them will expire shortly.
Punit has no interest in diluting this year, or at least at this share price. I just listened to him again, and he was rather clear about that. Don't expect it to happen unless the stock price goes up significantly.
Both major shareholders (and I don't have there names in front of me) still own all the shares they have bought and are very comfortable with where ONCS is at.
People don't fully understand that ImmunoPulse is not IL-12 delivery, they have the ability to dose any DNA plasmid that they want. They can deliver dozens of plasmids at one time, so this can be a delivery system for other companies that develop DNA plasmids
Punit sounded very confident that they would be successful, which might just be him being a CEO.
Poor communication: T-Cell Lymphoma trial was shutdown, they never finished enrollment, even though they had responses they shut it down as it wasn't something they wanted to pursue (he gave me a more detailed answer, but that is the gist). This was not PR'd, but no big deal IMO. May pursue it as a monotherapy in the future (so it had good response rates), but they need a better electroporation device to treat efficiently, and limited resources it is better to focus on Melanoma.
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 6, 2016 23:49:34 GMT
Humorous post
So Punit is speaking and says "So I think your question is why are we undervalued as a company....see I'm making you ask the hard questions", only I hadn't asked any questions.
On a serious note, I do have more respect for Punit after this. He relayed some personal stories to me, which I may share later, that show me this guy is dedicated and very personally invested in seeing ONCS be successful.
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 6, 2016 23:52:26 GMT
If you have any questions, please let me know. I have the ability to do some follow up with him, so if I have not yet posted the answer to something you're looking for, let me know. I'll either answer it or do a follow up.
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Post by jazz9292 on Feb 7, 2016 2:35:12 GMT
A lot of great info Furbush, the only thing I have a problem with is if they were trying to conserve limited funding to make it through these specific trials, why go from 12 employees to 53 so early. Why get into a new expensive building until the money and funding is their. I get this feeling, they jumped the gun a little, and somebody backpedaled out of a few things they thought were guarantees. I still think this could be a heck of a buying opportunity but for the last year and a half his execution has been sketchy at best. On a side note it looks like the stock price may have bottomed and it wouldn't take much for this to bounce back to 2.20 to 2.30 area. If that would hold I don't see much resistance on the chart to about 3.20 almost a 100 percent upside here just on a technical bounce to below the last offering price.
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 7, 2016 4:30:01 GMT
A lot of great info Furbush, the only thing I have a problem with is if they were trying to conserve limited funding to make it through these specific trials, why go from 12 employees to 53 so early. Why get into a new expensive building until the money and funding is their. I get this feeling, they jumped the gun a little, and somebody backpedaled out of a few things they thought were guarantees. I still think this could be a heck of a buying opportunity but for the last year and a half his execution has been sketchy at best. On a side note it looks like the stock price may have bottomed and it wouldn't take much for this to bounce back to 2.20 to 2.30 area. If that would hold I don't see much resistance on the chart to about 3.20 almost a 100 percent upside here just on a technical bounce to below the last offering price. I will get into this in a bit, forgive me because I don't have a transcript of my conversation. ONCS is not paying for their new facility. I repeat, they are not paying for it, another entity is. I have not gotten there yet, but I will review and get back to you. The next year someone else is paying for the new facility. As to the employees (currently around 42) most of which is in research, long term progress trumps short term PPS. So the more people working, the better the long term outlook is. More on this latter |
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Post by JHam on Feb 7, 2016 10:17:59 GMT
A lot of great info Furbush, the only thing I have a problem with is if they were trying to conserve limited funding to make it through these specific trials, why go from 12 employees to 53 so early. Why get into a new expensive building until the money and funding is their. I get this feeling, they jumped the gun a little, and somebody backpedaled out of a few things they thought were guarantees. I still think this could be a heck of a buying opportunity but for the last year and a half his execution has been sketchy at best. On a side note it looks like the stock price may have bottomed and it wouldn't take much for this to bounce back to 2.20 to 2.30 area. If that would hold I don't see much resistance on the chart to about 3.20 almost a 100 percent upside here just on a technical bounce to below the last offering price. I will get into this in a bit, forgive me because I don't have a transcript of my conversation. ONCS is not paying for their new facility. I repeat, they are not paying for it, another entity is. I have not gotten there yet, but I will review and get back to you. The next year someone else is paying for the new facility. As to the employees (currently around 42) most of which is in research, long term progress trumps short term PPS. So the more people working, the better the long term outlook is. More on this latter That's definitely an interesting development. Anxious to hear more about this. So a different entity is paying for the new facility each year? |
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Post by JHam on Feb 7, 2016 10:29:46 GMT
I spoke at length with Punit this week, and I'm going to post parts of the conversation as I have time, it was over an hour, so it will take me some time. Punit feels that the big issues facing stock price right now is that few people are really able to follow what they are doing, having NeoPulse and not pursuing it, doing MCC and T-Cell Lymphoma and not pursuing them, so people dont see what they are doing and understand where the company is going. Why decisions are made etc. 2 trials that are important, Phase2B and TNBC, both will most likely lead to a Registration trial for combination with Keytruda for melanoma, and a combination of IL-12 and a new drug for Phase 1B in TNBC. They have limited resources and are really trying to focus all their attention into these 2 and only these 2 Heat Pre-clinical data should be available later this year (I guess late April), Plexxikon the trial is done, but they have not decided if they are proceeding further. We may not see that data. Phase 2B Interim data later this year (I expect at the electroporation conference in Aug/Sept), from the sound of it, they are progressing at a very respectable enrollment pace. He didn't say exactly, but I'd guess 3-4 a month. They are using their Perkins machine that they developed in the screening process. The big key here is that OncoSec is the ONLY company that is doing a trial with patients screened to not respond to Keytruda. So, If they get to the market, and provide a screening that shows who will not respond, there will only be one product that is FDA approved. If they aren't screened then the Dr.s may just use the shotgun approach of some other combination, now it is for the insurance to dictate which is lowest priced/ best bang for the buck. Big point is they will be the only FDA approved treatment for non responders of PD1 The bolder above is absolutely true. I can't say if that is the only reason for the pps decline, but this company has been super hard to follow in terms of what they are doing and when they steer away from what they have guided. Case in point is the lymphoma trial. I appreciate that you were able to get this info, but we shouldn't have to hear it through someone who had a private conversation with PD. This should be made public and not just wiped off the corporate presentation and forgotten about. They also need to be more clear about what is happening with the expanded study. It's a big deal that they are using the Perkins machine to screen patients and an even bigger deal that they are the ONLY company that is doing a trial enrolling only patients who don't respond. I don't get why they haven't been more clear about these things (to name a few) as it is important information for shareholders and would help for their credibility. I hope PD knows this now. |
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Post by nateb on Feb 7, 2016 14:40:42 GMT
Furbush, thanks for sharing and I look forward to hearing more.
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 7, 2016 15:05:11 GMT
I spoke at length with Punit this week, and I'm going to post parts of the conversation as I have time, it was over an hour, so it will take me some time. Punit feels that the big issues facing stock price right now is that few people are really able to follow what they are doing, having NeoPulse and not pursuing it, doing MCC and T-Cell Lymphoma and not pursuing them, so people dont see what they are doing and understand where the company is going. Why decisions are made etc. 2 trials that are important, Phase2B and TNBC, both will most likely lead to a Registration trial for combination with Keytruda for melanoma, and a combination of IL-12 and a new drug for Phase 1B in TNBC. They have limited resources and are really trying to focus all their attention into these 2 and only these 2 Heat Pre-clinical data should be available later this year (I guess late April), Plexxikon the trial is done, but they have not decided if they are proceeding further. We may not see that data. Phase 2B Interim data later this year (I expect at the electroporation conference in Aug/Sept), from the sound of it, they are progressing at a very respectable enrollment pace. He didn't say exactly, but I'd guess 3-4 a month. They are using their Perkins machine that they developed in the screening process. The big key here is that OncoSec is the ONLY company that is doing a trial with patients screened to not respond to Keytruda. So, If they get to the market, and provide a screening that shows who will not respond, there will only be one product that is FDA approved. If they aren't screened then the Dr.s may just use the shotgun approach of some other combination, now it is for the insurance to dictate which is lowest priced/ best bang for the buck. Big point is they will be the only FDA approved treatment for non responders of PD1 The bolder above is absolutely true. I can't say if that is the only reason for the pps decline, but this company has been super hard to follow in terms of what they are doing and when they steer away from what they have guided. Case in point is the lymphoma trial. I appreciate that you were able to get this info, but we shouldn't have to hear it through someone who had a private conversation with PD. This should be made public and not just wiped off the corporate presentation and forgotten about. They also need to be more clear about what is happening with the expanded study. It's a big deal that they are using the Perkins machine to screen patients and an even bigger deal that they are the ONLY company that is doing a trial enrolling only patients who don't respond. I don't get why they haven't been more clear about these things (to name a few) as it is important information for shareholders and would help for their credibility. I hope PD knows this now. So there has been poor communication, I think that they were unable to comprehend that retail investors were not following what they were doing, or why. So when they stopped T-Cell, they saw it as no big deal (should have been PR'). As to the test that they are co-developing with Perkins, the P2B study is kind of a clinical trial for that machine as well, I figure they will try to get an FDA approval for it. Anyway, right or wrong, Punit I believe is making a concerted effort for better communication. |
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Post by nateb on Feb 7, 2016 16:57:17 GMT
I am not sure why they thought shutting T-Cell and other trials down was not a big deal. Also, the fact that someone else is paying for their new facility is important positive news. Again, not sure why that was not shared. Right now, Punit is letting the market and naysayers control the story on Oncosec. They need to be more proactive and better at controlling the narrative.
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Post by jckrdu on Feb 7, 2016 18:13:57 GMT
I spoke at length with Punit this week, and I'm going to post parts of the conversation as I have time, it was over an hour, so it will take me some time. Punit feels that the big issues facing stock price right now is that few people are really able to follow what they are doing, having NeoPulse and not pursuing it, doing MCC and T-Cell Lymphoma and not pursuing them, so people dont see what they are doing and understand where the company is going. Why decisions are made etc. 2 trials that are important, Phase2B and TNBC, both will most likely lead to a Registration trial for combination with Keytruda for melanoma, and a combination of IL-12 and a new drug for Phase 1B in TNBC. They have limited resources and are really trying to focus all their attention into these 2 and only these 2 Heat Pre-clinical data should be available later this year (I guess late April), Plexxikon the trial is done, but they have not decided if they are proceeding further. We may not see that data. Phase 2B Interim data later this year (I expect at the electroporation conference in Aug/Sept), from the sound of it, they are progressing at a very respectable enrollment pace. He didn't say exactly, but I'd guess 3-4 a month. They are using their Perkins machine that they developed in the screening process. The big key here is that OncoSec is the ONLY company that is doing a trial with patients screened to not respond to Keytruda. So, If they get to the market, and provide a screening that shows who will not respond, there will only be one product that is FDA approved. If they aren't screened then the Dr.s may just use the shotgun approach of some other combination, now it is for the insurance to dictate which is lowest priced/ best bang for the buck. Big point is they will be the only FDA approved treatment for non responders of PD1 Case in point is the lymphoma trial. I appreciate that you were able to get this info, but we shouldn't have to hear it through someone who had a private conversation with PD. This should be made public and not just wiped off the corporate presentation and forgotten about. They also need to be more clear about what is happening with the expanded study. It's a big deal that they are using the Perkins machine to screen patients and an even bigger deal that they are the ONLY company that is doing a trial enrolling only patients who don't respond. I don't get why they haven't been more clear about these things (to name a few) as it is important information for shareholders and would help for their credibility. I hope PD knows this now. Agree. I no longer have a position in ONCS, but will look to re-establish a position after I get some clarity on the upcoming milestones, and when the company expects those milestones to happen.
The market doesn't like uncertainty.... even more-so in early stage biotechs... and even more-so when a company has a fairly hefty burn rate which IMO is the case with ONCS.
I re-established a position in ADXS because - like ONCS - it has been beaten down. But, unlike ONCS, the CEO of ADXS has laid out all the upcoming milestones for the coming year which allows me to evaluate if I think they'll hit those milestones. I can then look at their current cash position, upcoming planned milestones, and historical management track record to see if I think any value-creation is coming in 2016. Very hard to do any of that analysis with ONCS.
So why hasn't ONCS laid out the milestones for each quarter this coming year? IMO, the answer is that ONCS management isn't certain on when things will happen. So, I'm going to continue to stay on the sidelines until ONCS management provides a roadmap with quarterly (or half year) milestones so I know what they intend to do. In the absence of that roadmap, I'm just going to assume meaningful data isn't coming anytime soon, because ONCS management isn't sure on when things will happen. My belief is that we'll see a roadmap/milestones when the schedules of the trials firm-up and ONCS can set expectations with more confidence.
No roadmap means investors are less likely to hold (or accumulate) for the next expected milestone. Instead of focusing on upcoming milestones, investors or potential investors look ahead to the next release of quarterly financial results.... and that news becomes a major risk as the updated (reduced) cash position is disclosed.
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Post by jckrdu on Feb 7, 2016 19:10:45 GMT
Last thought on ONCS: I still like this company and think positive data from the combo-trial with Merck will get the pps much much higher. I think anyone still accumulating at current levels (anywhere under $2) will do very well in the longterm.... but - per my post above - I still have some concerns on the pace of enrollment and when data will be released, so I'm going to stay on the sidelines until after the next financial results are released ... where we should have a better handle on their cash position and hopefully more clarity on upcoming milestones.
GLTA.
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 7, 2016 19:50:30 GMT
Last thought on ONCS: I still like this company and think positive data from the combo-trial with Merck will get the pps much much higher. I think anyone still accumulating at current levels (anywhere under $2) will do very well in the longterm.... but - per my post above - I still have some concerns on the pace of enrollment and when data will be released, so I'm going to stay on the sidelines until after the next financial results are released ... where we should have a better handle on their cash position and hopefully more clarity on upcoming milestones. GLTA. I don't think there is a rush to buy, and with the overall market going down, it is possible ONCS provides a better entry point over the coming months. So I'm not in a hurry to buy, and I'm taking my time in sharing all that I got out of my conversation to make sure I can share both what was said and what I got out of it. |
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 8, 2016 4:27:02 GMT
I'm almost completed with an article I'll submit to SA. If it moves the stock price it will be proof that people can't read. So don't think there will be a bump because of it. It is a complete digest of everything I can be sure of, plus some strong opinions I have formed after listening to the conversation a lot over the weekend (except when cheering for Manning). Afterward I'll post up here some of the more speculative thoughts I have. Cheers all,
Edit. If anyone has all the info on Warrants readily available that would save me some time, if not, no worries.
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Post by Titan V on Feb 8, 2016 5:09:07 GMT
I'm almost completed with an article I'll submit to SA. If it moves the stock price it will be proof that people can't read. So don't think there will be a bump because of it. It is a complete digest of everything I can be sure of, plus some strong opinions I have formed after listening to the conversation a lot over the weekend (except when cheering for Manning). Afterward I'll post up here some of the more speculative thoughts I have. Cheers all, Edit. If anyone has all the info on Warrants readily available that would save me some time, if not, no worries. furbush87, re: warrants info, check out this website (directed from Reuters). It's $1 for a seven day trial for the Silver subscription. After that it converts to $99 if you do not cancel. I do not have a subscription at the moment otherwise would look them up. http://commonstockwarrants.com Looking forward to your SA article. Thanks and cheers! |
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 8, 2016 21:55:58 GMT
I will get into this in a bit, forgive me because I don't have a transcript of my conversation. ONCS is not paying for their new facility. I repeat, they are not paying for it, another entity is. I have not gotten there yet, but I will review and get back to you. The next year someone else is paying for the new facility. As to the employees (currently around 42) most of which is in research, long term progress trumps short term PPS. So the more people working, the better the long term outlook is. More on this latter That's definitely an interesting development. Anxious to hear more about this. So a different entity is paying for the new facility each year? Alexandria is who he said was paying for it. He said they negotiated a full year of rent paid for by them. Then said they were a great partner. |
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Post by furbush87 on Feb 8, 2016 21:56:58 GMT
I'm almost completed with an article I'll submit to SA. If it moves the stock price it will be proof that people can't read. So don't think there will be a bump because of it. It is a complete digest of everything I can be sure of, plus some strong opinions I have formed after listening to the conversation a lot over the weekend (except when cheering for Manning). Afterward I'll post up here some of the more speculative thoughts I have. Cheers all, Edit. If anyone has all the info on Warrants readily available that would save me some time, if not, no worries. furbush87, re: warrants info, check out this website (directed from Reuters). It's $1 for a seven day trial for the Silver subscription. After that it converts to $99 if you do not cancel. I do not have a subscription at the moment otherwise would look them up. http://commonstockwarrants.com Looking forward to your SA article. Thanks and cheers! Got it, thanks, most warrants expire in the next couple months well out of the money |
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Post by Titan V on Feb 9, 2016 1:16:41 GMT
That's definitely an interesting development. Anxious to hear more about this. So a different entity is paying for the new facility each year? Alexandria is who he said was paying for it. He said they negotiated a full year of rent paid for by them. Then said they were a great partner. "LARGEST AND LEADING URBAN OFFICE REIT UNIQUELY FOCUSED ON COLLABORATIVE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAMPUSES IN AAA INNOVATION CLUSTERS" www.are.comThey look legit. Thanks for sharing. Happy to know PD wasn't splurging and as a matter of fact seems to have made an excellent deal with this facility. He really deserves more credit than people give him. |
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