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Post by biposter on May 7, 2020 17:59:38 GMT
News out today from Bloomberg on Paul Tudor Jones. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/paul-tudor-jones-buys-bitcoin-says-he-s-reminded-of-gold-in-70sMacro investor Paul Tudor Jones is buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the inflation he sees coming from central bank money-printing, telling clients it reminds him of the role gold played in the 1970s. “The best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse,” Jones, the founder and chief executive officer of Tudor Investment Corp., said in a market outlook note he entitled ‘The Great Monetary Inflation.’ “If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin.” Jones, who said his Tudor BVI fund may hold as much as a low single-digit percentage of its assets in Bitcoin futures, becomes one of the first big hedge fund managers to embrace what until now has largely been a financial fad with few mainstream advocates. He said he was motivated to take a hard look at Bitcoin after considering the implications of massive fiscal spending and bond-buying by central banks to combat the coronavirus pandemic. By his calculation, $3.9 trillion of money, the equivalent of 6.6% of global economic output, has been printed since February. “It has happened globally with such speed that even a market veteran like myself was left speechless,” Jones, 65, wrote. “We are witnessing the Great Monetary Inflation -- an unprecedented expansion of every form of money unlike anything the developed world has ever seen.” The question for a macro investor like Jones was how to hedge. He said he considered various bets on gold, Treasuries, certain types of stocks, currencies and commodities. Jones first dabbled in Bitcoin in 2017, doubling his money before exiting the trade near its peak at almost $20,000. This time, he said he evaluated Bitcoin as a store of value and decided it passes the test based on four characteristics: purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity and portability. “I am not a hard-money nor a crypto nut,” he wrote. “The most compelling argument for owning Bitcoin is the coming digitization of currency everywhere, accelerated by Covid-19.” |
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Post by biposter on Jun 1, 2020 7:28:28 GMT
So it looks like miner capitulation could soon be over. Many have gone offline, but the demand side has been unusually strong and has offset the selling pressure. Most thought there would be one final dump post-halving, but it never happened. Check out this tweetstorm (need to click on Preston Pysh's tweet to read the rest) to get an idea of maybe why: So maybe one or two more weeks and the brunt of the selling could be over. If so, maybe, at worst, one final dip (if any) down to $9.2k ($8.7-$8.9k, at the lowest). Then the slow climb begins in mid-June lol? We’ll see. *EDIT (6/15)*
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Post by biposter on Jul 13, 2020 7:53:58 GMT
Buy Now: @caprioleio’s Hash Ribbons “Buy” signal was confirmed today. It’s only happened nine times in bitcoin’s history, and the avg. subsequent price gain is +5,000%. After this signal hits, BTC usually drops a max of ~3%-16%: medium.com/capriole/hash-ribbons-bitcoin-bottoms-60da13095836. So now might be a good time to get in. And according to Willy Woo, it may start within a few weeks: Halving 3: After the first halving in 2012, it remained range-bound for six weeks before it took off (+3,000% to ATH of $270). After the second halving in 2016, nine weeks (+4,000% to ATH of $20k). It’s now been nine weeks since Halving 3 (on 5/11): www.rektcapital.co/articles/posthalving. So I think the post-halving pump could be only weeks away.
$LINK: I made a mistake with the crypto asset allocation. I meant 80% LINK, 15% BTC, 5% ETH. Lol, joking. But Chainlink has been on a tear over the last year (and since inception). It’s doubled over the past month, and it still has a very long runway. Timothy Peterson, CFA, has some great research on LINK, and he thinks it’ll be bigger than bitcoin one day. I seriously doubt that, but it does already have real-world utility, and it’s the top-dog decentralized price oracle. All/most defi/smart contracts will use it. static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5ec31e182f02014716f09082/1589845529029/research+note+5.18.pdf Although I was joking above, if you’re risk-immune, maybe consider this for your crypto allocation: 70% BTC, 15% ETH, 15% LINK. And maybe some $VET when it comes to Coinbase in the coming months.
**EDIT (7/25):
Think the train is about to leave the station. Actually, the locomotive has been slowly pulling out over the past month. A month ago, $ETH was at $220 ($295 today), $LINK at $4.50 ($7.70 today), and BTC at $9k ($9.7k today). (Have you seen the degen traders with the defi coins over the past few weeks? Some up 10x, 100x in a matter of weeks lol.) I don’t think there will be any more significant pullbacks. If Biden wins and Dems take the senate, then both stonks/crypto will pull back hard. But by then, BTC will be pulling back from $15k. Of course if Trump wins, then stonks/bitcoin moon.
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Post by biposter on Aug 9, 2020 19:35:15 GMT
If you’re still skeptical of the crypto space, maybe consider just trading the trend over the next 6 mo.-1 yr., and then take profits and exit. The two hottest sectors are DeFi (decentralized finance) and oracles. The bull run hasn’t really taken off yet, so it’s still early. Many coins have run up quite a bit, so there could be pullbacks, but maybe take a starter/half position now, and scale in whether prices pop or drop. Here’s some examples of these crazy moves going on: Your “can’t-miss FANG” base coins should be these (I think these three should be 90%+ of your crypto holdings):
- BTC ($11,600 now)
- ETH ($390)
- LINK ($14).
Now, here’s where it really gets risky, but you can check out a list of the top DeFi coins by market cap here: www.coingecko.com/en/defi. Here’s the price action of what I think are some of the best defi coins (not sure about $YFI, but I just included to show you the wild run-up):
- $LINK: $4 in June; now at $14
- $SNX: $0.80 in May; now at $4.29
- $LEND: $0.05 in May; now at $0.39
- $KNC $0.60 in May; now at $1.72
- $REN: $0.08 in June; now at $0.22
- $BAL: $10 last week; now at $27
- $BAND: $1.07 in July; now at $13.87
- $COMP ($164 now): back in June, it went from $100 to ~$400 within a week
- $YFI ($4,238 now): this is the craziest one -- $35 in July, and popped to $5,000(!) in August (142x-bggr in a week)!
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Post by biposter on Aug 19, 2020 22:03:39 GMT
Some important news out over the past few weeks that’s bullish for bitcoin/crypto: PayPal/Venmo will allow for the buying/selling of bitcoin for its 325m users, possibly by eoy: www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/07/24/visa-mastercard-and-paypal-are-changing-their-tune-on-bitcoin-and-crypto/#63c796832a1a. So, within months, no need to use Coinbase, Cash app, or Robinhood to buy bitcoin. Can’t get any easier. U.S. Bank Regulator allows national banks to custody crypto: www.forbes.com/sites/haileylennon/2020/07/22/bitcoin-meets-banking-as-us-bank-regulator-permits-cryptocurrency-custody/#6dfb23c25479. So maybe in the near future, we can have both our checking and crypto accounts all with one bank. The walls are crumbling. We’re getting greater regulatory clarity, and big banks could start moving into the space. “Crypto Mom” Hester Pierce confirmed as SEC Commissioner until 2025: www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/08/06/us-senate-votes-in-crypto-mom-hester-peirce-at-sec-through-2025/#1d3b39531524. The current SEC Chair, Jay Clayton, has continually denied every bitcoin ETF application (but a 3x Oil ETF is fine, lol!). He could be moving on to the U.S. Attorney’s office, paving the way for “crypto mom” to possibly be the next SEC Chair. That could finally green-light a bitcoin ETF, which would open the floodgates for bitcoin adoption. ETH 2.0 moves Ethereum to proof-of-stake, which will provide ETH holders a yield of 3%-5%: www.coindesk.com/first-mover-ethereums-transition-to-staking-could-push-more-traders-to-use-derivatives. When the second-largest cryptocurrency moves to a “PoS” model next year, ETH holders can finally one-up goldbugs and say that their asset now has an intrinsic yield. The much smaller cryptocurrency Tezos ($XTZ) already offers holders a ~5% annual yield on their coins -- for example, just by buying and holding it on Coinbase: blog.coinbase.com/introducing-staking-rewards-on-coinbase-c394392a70eb. If you really want to fall down the rabbit hole, you can even get a yield on your bitcoin through defi “yield farming”: www.coindesk.com/defi-yield-farming-comp-token-explained. Another way is through trusted-third-party providers, such as through Genesis Capital or BlockFi, where you can get ~6% annual yield on your BTC. But be sure to do your own research before using any of these defi or 3rd-party options. There are exploit risks (coding bugs with defi) and counterparty risk (with 3rd-party providers). So beware. But it will soon become mainstream to earn a nice yield on your crypto when compared to the current near-zero interest rates everywhere else. Nasdaq co. $MSTR takes half their cash balance and buys $250M in bitcoin: ir.microstrategy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/microstrategy-adopts-bitcoin-primary-treasury-reserve-asset | www.forbes.com/sites/christopherbrookins/2020/08/14/microstrategy-just-sent-green-light-to-corporate-america-on-bitcoin/#4d0729c76bc4. Last week, Nasdaq co. $MSTR announced it had bought 21,454 BTC (~$250M) and will also do a $250M share buyback. It’s a $1.2B m/c co. (97% of shares institutionally-owned) w/$34M in profits last year. They didn't allocate 1% or 5% or 10%. They did 50% lol! In 2013, the current CEO dismissed bitcoin (“Bitcoin’s days are numbered”); last week, his company announced it had bought 0.1% of bitcoin’s total fixed supply (21m). It’s the first (non-crypto) publicly traded co. in the U.S. to have done this (publicly, at least). If $BTC’s price doubles (or more) over the next year, even if their revs/profits remain flat, they will have added at least 7x-worth of their annual net income in BTC on their balance sheet. What would then be the impact on their share price? They can then go out aggressively make strategic acquisitions. All eyes will then be on this company. $MSTR was at $124 before the announcement, and closed today at $141. Let’s see what happens in 2021. So over the next year or so, buying bitcoin/crypto will be as easy as buying stocks -- buy through your PayPal app, buy the ETF through your trading account, or even buy through your Chase account. Earn a 3-5% yield on your ETH, BTC, crypto, like a nice dividend on your coins. And just ast Paul Tudor Jones eliminated career-risk for all hedge fund mgrs, CEO Michael Saylor's move into BTC could see his fellow CEOs follow his lead and move in. Anyway, over the next year, I think the word “DeFi” will be as common as “bitcoin.” There’s a revolution in finance underway, but it’s still very early.
***EDIT (8/25):
When BTC began its move a month or so ago, it left a CME gap @$9,700. So far, every BTC CME gap has been filled. Willy Woo’s on-chain analysis has been on the money, so here’s what he thinks might be coming over the next few weeks:
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Post by biposter on Aug 29, 2020 20:19:14 GMT
So I’m wondering if the $11.8k to $11.1k drop earlier this week was the full extent of the “bearish move” Willy Woo was predicting (see post above). There really is no bearish sentiment on CT, and it would take some serious selling to drop to $9.7k. So I’m thinking maybe it was whales/retail hedging before Powell’s speech, in case he spooked the market. But if Willy Woo is correct, then he thinks the gap should fill by mid-Sept. Maybe continue to scale in now and be ready to load up if it does. These are what I think are the top-tier, core cryptocurrencies you should buy and hold (many other solid coins, but these seven should be your core):
- Core holdings: BTC, ETH, LINK
- Top-tier DeFi coins: LEND, SNX, NXM, YFI.
Be sure to buy all seven for the defi revolution that’s coming. Yes, $YFI is now at $24k lol. This is the one that was at $35.00 in July lol! LEND was less than a penny a year ago. It’s now at $0.81. Yet defi is in its very, very early stages. There’s only $8B locked up in defi protocols. There’s still huge upside potential. Think about it -- anyone you know heard of “DeFi”? It’s like buying bitcoin 8 yr ago at $100 but missing out all the way up from $1. (Of course, one of the key risks w/defi is exploits/hacks, though.) Here are a few accounts which, I think, give some of the best free alpha. Many of these coins aren’t listed on U.S. exchanges. You can find most of them using a DEX like Uniswap v.2. You can hook up your Coinbase wallet (trading [for only ERC20 tokens] with your ETH, not USD) or MetaMask. (Pls be sure to do your own dd before using any dex!) Here’s a good website to keep up with this rapidly-evolving sector: decrypt.co
***EDIT (9/14):
CME gap @$9,700 still hasn’t filled. Maybe it doesn’t fill? Here’s Willy Woo’s update:
And, btw, here’s a crypto VC firm (Framework Ventures) that has nailed it so far with their huge bets on DeFi years ago. It’s almost two hours, but you can get a broad overview of DeFi investing in one podcast interview (tl;dr: crazy bullish on ETH, LINK, SNX, YFI; also LEND, TRB. He thinks DeFi TVL could be $100B-$500B in the next cycle [12-24 mo.], which would be a a 10x-50x-bggr for defi as a whole):
***EDIT (9/26):
Sorry, scratch TRB (Tellor). Framework invested in Teller (no governance token yet, I believe).
So will the $9,700 CME gap fill? Maybe after the election? Well, here’s the latest from @woonomic, @nsquaredcrypto, and @caprioleio:
And here’s a good list of the crypto sector leaders, except he forgot BTC (money, store of value) and LINK (price oracle). Maybe just dca into all 10 coins. Who knows if/when the gap fills.
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Post by biposter on Nov 8, 2020 19:30:03 GMT
So with a Biden win, and Rs retaining the Senate, it could be more bullish for bitcoin/crypto (but BTC did tank a $1,000 after Biden was declared the winner, lol). Trump and Mnuchin were not just skeptical, but hostile. Rs will keep a restraint on the excessive Dem impulses that could hinder bitcoin: regulations, taxes, etc. So we may be in a sweet spot. Here’s what I think is the continued bullish case for bitcoin/crypto going forward under a Biden presidency:
- We should continue to get greater regulatory clarity/certainty, even under Biden. With China’s aggressive move into digital currencies, the U.S. and the world will have to play catch-up (though Powell only said that they’re considering a U.S. CBDC).
- We may not see real retail FOMO until after it hits its ATH of $20k. PayPal will be opening up its crypto service in the next two to three weeks to all of its 200m U.S. customers (not sure when their 146m global customers will gain access). So maybe the retail dam starts to burst at the end of Nov.? (In early 2021, they’ll open it up in their Venmo app, and then they’ll allow their customers to use cryptocurrency to make purchases at all 26m businesses that accept PayPal.)
- Institutional money is coming into bitcoin. After MSTR put $425M of bitcoin onto their balance sheet, SQ announced a $50M BTC buy. It began with retail. Then high net worth individuals, and then hedge funds. Even the Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and MIT Endowments have all made an allocation. This summer, the OCC gave the regulatory green light for national banks to custody crypto. Get ready for more publicly-traded companies to follow suit. Here’s what Bill Miller said on CNBC this week: "I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what's like it, which is gold or some kind of commodities," (https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-legendary-investor-bill-miller-resilience-better-every-day-2020-11-1029776469).
- Coinbase may be going public in early 2021. National banks will partner with crypto exchanges to begin custody of their clients’ bitcoin. Then expect some big banks to outright buy out crypto exchanges.
We’re now almost six months into the third halving (May 11th). The supply constraints are really beginning to be felt right now. Grayscale ($GBTC) and Square (CashApp) are buying up a massive amount of BTC. Soon PayPal will have to do the same. So retail and institutional demand is starting to erupt. The Stock-to-Flow model has been accurate over the past 12 years. Though the correlation was proven not to be cointegrated, it’s not yet certain that it’s spurious. If the model holds, it predicts that BTC will hit, at the low end, $55k by the end of 2021. At the high end: BTC at $288k by YE2021 lol. We’ll see next year if this model is valid lol. There’s still time to get in! It’s still early. As Paul Tudor Jones said on CNBC last month, bitcoin is still in the first inning. Fwiw, here’s what I think is a good crypto allocation: 60% BTC (actually, maybe 70%-80%, lol), 20% ETH (maybe 25%-30% lol), 10% LINK, 10% DeFi blue chips: SNX, AAVE, YFI; also: UNI, NXM. Just be sure you first have a big chunk of BTC and ETH.
***EDIT (11/9):
It was $SQ, not $TWTR, that added $50M to its balance sheet.
Six mo. ago when Paul Tudor Jones bought “low single digits” of bitcoin in this $8B fund, Raoul Pal said that PTJ and Druck were good friends and suggested that Stan Druckenmiller would be next. Today, Druckenmiller said on CNBC that he’s in.
***EDIT (11/20):
Here’s BlackRock’s CIO on CNBC today:
There’s a sea change now underway in how institutional investors are looking at bitcoin. Career-risk will begin to shift to money managers who don’t have any exposure. And the recent JPM and Citi sell-side research is helping drive this narrative shift.
***EDIT (11/23):
PayPal CEO on CNBC today:
The merchant will still receive USD converted from the customer’s crypto. But now no one can say you can’t buy a cup of coffee with bitcoin.
***EDIT (12/14): As Raoul Pal said, there’s a wall of money coming into bitcoin. The institutional herd is just about here (some have arrived). Here’s what happened just in the last month: And last week, insurer MassMutual bought in. And JPM suggests they won’t be the last: And after $MSTR bought $425M of BTC last qtr, they’re buying another $650M. They’ll soon own more than $1B in bitcoin (not to mention, the CEO himself owns, I think, about $300M in bitcoin in his personal account): And here’s a Bloomberg article saying that HNW individuals are jumping in. So not only will career-risk flip to money managers w/o exposure to bitcoin, the mega-wealthy will not want to look foolish and be called Luddites for missing this generational investment: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/bitcoin-btc-rich-investors-are-jumping-into-cryptocurrencies-as-stigma-fades?sref=DK3y4h9m&utm_source=url_link“The big boys are putting their funds into Bitcoin as a hedge against being called Neanderthals who missed the crypto boat,” says Modic, the managing member of Western Investments Capital LLC, her investment family office.
So here are some BTC price predictions for next year:
BTC touched its ATH twice in the last month, but Willy Woo thinks it won’t have a clear break above until sometime next month:
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Post by biposter on Jan 17, 2021 20:57:35 GMT
Former CTFC head Gary Gensler, who taught a course on blockchain technology at MIT, is reported to be the next SEC Chair. So along with Hester Pierce (“Crypto Mom”), the SEC will have two strong crypto advocates, so we could see a bitcoin ETF this year. Floodgates are already open. If an ETF, the dam will be breached. Unfortunately, Acting OCC Chief, Brian Brooks, will be stepping down, but he’s already pushed through meaningful regulatory clarifications during his short stint (though Rep. Maxine Waters wants Biden to rescind all of his rulings). decrypt.co/54100/crypto-advocate-brian-brooks-to-leave-occ. And bc of the OCC’s guidance, you now have $GS, $JPM, $C all looking at providing crypto custody for their clients: www.coindesk.com/goldman-sachs-to-enter-crypto-market-soon-with-custody-play-source. Wall Street is here. Larry Summers (Treasury Secretary under Clinton, NEC Director under Obama, former Harvard Univ Pres) thinks bitcoin is going higher lol: www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pPOjKJtCwA (at the 8:53 mark). Can’t get more mainstream than a top economist like Larry Summers. He could’ve bashed bitcoin, like Lagarde, but instead he’s pumping it lol. Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO and former Goldman Sachs partner, says twice on this podcast that his sources have told him that Elon Musk will be buying bitcoin for $TSLA treasury: www.theblockcrypto.com/post/90878/mike-novogratz-bitcoin-price-podcast. He’s well connected, so if there’s an OTC desk buying BTC for Tesla, Novogratz should know. If Tesla does add bitcoin to its balance sheet, this news will reverberate throughout the whole stock market, and crypto will erupt. $TSLA is such a story stock, after an initial dip (if analysts aren’t pleased), bitcoin could juice its already-meteoric price action. Their millennial/Gen Z shareholders should love it, as 60% $TSLA/40% $BTC is their preferred balanced portfolio over 60/40 stocks/bonds lol j/k $MSTR has ripped higher since adding +$1B bitcoin to their balance sheet. Before the initial BTC announcement last summer, $MSTR was trading at ~$120. It’s now at ~$600. This has the attention of every CEO/CFO in the U.S. Expect many other public co to follow suit this year. The CEO/CIO of Three Arrows Capital, one of the largest VC crypto firms, was recognized for having the most accurate predictions in 2020 (see link). Last month, he laid out his predictions for 2021: “Several central banks will announce substantial stakes in BTC. Most investment banks and private banks will announce crypto offerings. DeFi TVL will pierce through $100B. Coinbase IPO will trigger a frenzy of M&A. Several large public companies will issue BTC-related capital structure instruments… Island nation formed with crypto as the main currency.” medium.com/tokendaily/the-2021-crypto-crystal-ball-fac70de8aac3 It’s been only a month, but you already see the $GS, $JPM, $C crypto custody news. You’re already hearing rumors about $TSLA adding bitcoin (and possibly allowing customers to buy using bitcoin). And Miami’s mayor is now considering allocating 1% of the city’s treasury into bitcoin: www.foxbusiness.com/technology/miami-mayor-bitcoin-invest-cryptocurrency $ETH is closing in on its ATH. It was ~$250 last summer and is now at ~$1,200. The DeFi blue chips have all hit their ATH. $LINK was at $4 last summer; it’s now at $23. $AAVE (formerly $LEND) was at $50 in Oct; now at ~$195. $SNX was at ~$6 in Aug; now at $16. UNI is at its ATH. $YFI, though, is the lone laggard and has yet to hit its ATH, but it’s closing in. But this run-up is just beginning. These DeFi coins could +10x from here this year lol. When L2s come online in Q1/Q2, all of these will rip higher. And you can now buy all of them on Coinbase. All these are the FANG of crypto -- must-owns. Last year, Pantera Capital CEO, Dan Morehead (former $GS, Tiger Mgmt global macro money mgr), said that bitcoin/crypto is the greatest disruptor he’s ever seen in his career. It will disrupt stores of wealth, digital payments, remittances, etc. Brian Brooks wrote an article last week on FT.com stating that DeFI was like self-driving cars but for banking -- autonomous banking. So bitcoin will disrupt gold (way in the future) as a store of value. It could become the main currency for smaller countries. ETH is like the internet infrastructure with all these apps built on top of it. It’s like if you could own “Internet” stock in the ’90s. Then you wouldn’t have to pick all the winners; you could just own the whole underlying protocol. That’s ETH. With DeFi, you can autonomously invest assets for interest income. You can take out a loan with no paperwork and loan docs to sign. You just interact with a smart contract. BTC, ETH, DeFi will disrupt finance/banking as we know it. That’s why all of Wall Street is rushing through the turnstile to get in (though it seems they’re spreading rehashed Tether FUD bc many haven’t cleared all the hurdles necessary to take a position, so we could see one final dip sub-$30k). Even fintech giants like PayPal, Square know they have to get in or risk obsolescence. MoneyGram and Western Union will go the way of the stagecoach, with fast, cheap remittances using a stablecoin on Ethereum L2. Even Central Banks are developing their own digital currency. So according to the Stock-to-Flow model, bitcoin should hit somewhere between $100k-$288k this year lol. The price action so far is tracking the model perfectly. It’s still very early. As PTJ said, we’re only in the bottom of the 1st inning. |
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Post by biposter on Jan 29, 2021 9:10:53 GMT
Elon just updated his Twitter bio lol
*Edit (2/6):
Hey JHam, yeah, he’s since removed it. He’s recently been pumping dogecoin lol! Dogecoin was created back in 2014, I think, purely as a joke. It’s just a meme coin, yet Elon likes to claim he was dogecoin’s ex-CEO lol! Richest man in the world, yet his tweets are hilarious! Btw, haven’t been keeping up, but checked some of the other posts on this board recently, and you and the guys are crushing it with some of your picks! Thanks again, JHam, for this board. Hopefully we can all get some good ideas from one another to make some good money.
So, a few days ago, Michael Saylor ($MSTR CEO) held a bitcoin webinar for corporations. Initially, it was reported that about 1,400 companies registered. Saylor tweeted yesterday that ~7,000 companies attended:
And, supposedly, two SpaceX execs attended. Check out some of the other attendees:
Though it’ll take these companies months to do all their DD and clear all the legal/reg hurdles, it might possibly be these executives buying bitcoin for their personal accounts that’s caused this little pump. So how many of these companies might add bitcoin to their treasury this year?
- "I think it's almost irresponsible not to include" bitcoin on corporate balance sheets, Cramer said on CNBC Tuesday.
- "Every treasurer should be going to boards of directors and saying, 'Should we put a small portion of our cash in Bitcoin?' It seems to be an interesting way to hedge against the rest of the environment," he said.
- "I think it's an alternative to having cash position where you make absolutely nothing," Cramer said. The verdict on bitcoin: "Nice hedge against fiat currency."
- Cramer has previously endorsed MicroStrategy's bitcoin treasury reserve. He called CEO Michael Saylor a "gunner" he wouldn't bet against on a mid-January episode of Mad Money.
- Cramer, who said he owns bitcoin, has previously advocated for the cryptocurrency as a hedging instrument.
decrypt.co/57287/twitter-cfo-says-firm-may-add-bitcoin-to-its-balance-sheet Could be that Twitter is the next publicly-traded co to add bitcoin to its balance sheet. www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/mastercard-to-open-up-network-to-select-cryptocurrencies.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail Following PayPal, looks like you’ll soon be able to use crypto to buy stuff with your Mastercard. Visa next? decrypt.co/57411/americas-oldest-bank-bny-mellon-will-now-support-bitcoin BNY Mellon, America’s oldest bank, will be custodying crypto on behalf of its clients. Soon: Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. decrypt.co/57223/federal-reserve-bank-of-st-louis-taking-close-look-at-ethereum-defi The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published a report on DeFi. So last month, you had the former OCC Comptroller write an article on DeFi in the Financial Times. Last week, you had Mark Cuban pumping DeFi (he said he owns $AAVE and $SUSHI , along with BTC and ETH). And this week, you have the St. Louis Fed publish a comprehensive report on DeFi (written by a Univ of Basel Economics professor).
*Edit (2/21):
decrypt.co/57986/microstrategy-may-now-be-buying-another-1-billion-of-bitcoin $MSTR issued yet another convertible bond, raising $1.05B to buy more bitcoin. Lol! He is ALL-IN! All his chips, his deed, his pink slip, and even his wallet! Well, what can you say? $MSTR has actually outperformed $BTC since they first took a position. www.cnbc.com/video/2021/02/17/blackrocks-rick-rieder-on-bitcoin-weve-started-to-dabble-in-it.html?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link BlackRock has gotten in (whatever “dabble” means). www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/17/the-motley-fool-announces-5-million-investment-in/ The Motley Fool will be adding $5M bitcoin onto its balance sheet. Plus, they made their first-ever formal cryptocurrency recommendation in Motley Fool history in one of their paid services. www.gemini.com/earn You can now earn interest on your crypto with Gemini. Gemini (Winklevoss twins) is one of the most secure crypto exchanges, complying with all U.S. and New York regulations. Great place to store and have your crypto work for you. Interest on BTC, ETH, and all the best DeFi coins! (Not sure how best to play the NFT boom w/o buying an actual NFT. Maybe $NFTX, $RGT, or $AXS? None of these are on exchanges. You’ll have to use Uniswap.) (This is not a referral link, and never click on a link anyway. Go directly to their site and create an account using a unique Gmail address [only used for the Gemini exchange] and set up 2FA using Authy.) Please first DYOR.
- BTC: 3.05%
- ETH: 3.05%
- AAVE: 5.83%
- SNX: 2.69%
- YFI: 3.29%
- UNI: 3.59%
- LINK: 4.46%
www.bitwiseinvestments.com/resources/press-releases/bitwise-launches-worlds-first-decentralized-finance-defi-crypto-index-fund This past week, Bitwise Asset Management launched a DeFi index fund ($BITW) for accredited investors. Institutional investors, too, now have a great way to get exposure to DeFi. This fund includes some of the best DeFi tokens: UNI, AAVE, SNX, YFI; also: MKR, COMP, UMA, ZRX, and LRC. www.coingecko.com/en This past week, Bitcoin’s “market cap” crossed $1T at ~$53,500. And $ETH broke through $2,000 for the first time. At the $UNI airdrop in Sept., $UNI opened trading at $3. This weekend, it crossed $30 for the first time. I think there’s still a DeFi 10x+-bagger from here this year. *Edit (2/28):
www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-02-27/we-are-heading-for-the-worst-inflation-risk-in-40-years-summers-video Larry Summers thinks there’s serious impending inflation risk not seen in decades. Though bitcoin is still a risk-on asset and trades like a high-growth tech stock, its investment thesis as an inflation hedge is taking root (read again PTJ’s GMI report: www.lopp.net/pdf/BVI-Macro-Outlook.pdf). If Summers is right, over the next year, there could be a huge inflow into bitcoin. This past weekend, Buffett wrote he was bearish on bonds, and Cathie Wood said on Bloomberg that she thinks bitcoin/crypto may replace bonds as a new asset class. The 40-yr bond bull market may be over, and might bitcoin/crypto take a nice little slice of that market? Buy $BTC. www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-may-replace-bonds-cathie-wood-says-11614276934 decrypt.co/59663/coinbase-is-the-next-facebookCoinbase will go public soon at about a $100B m/c. ($COIN on Nasdaq). As long as bitcoin pumps, it should be a good stock in the near term. But it has competitors like Gemini and BlockFi, which offer interest on crypto (in the case of BlockFi, 6% on BTC [on the first 2.5 BTC; 3% on the rest] and ETH [no limit], and 8% on USD stable coin [no limit]). (Again, pls DYOR! before using a Gemini or BlockFi. There’s counterparty/other risks involved.) Plus, with Uniswap v.3 coming out soon on a Layer 2, Coinbase will face real competition from DEXs, with virtually no trading commissions (when L2s come out) and access to all the cryptocurrencies out there (Coinbase currently has ~40 coins on its exchange). So, maybe buy $COIN, but be sure to buy $UNI (and also some $SUSHI). www.coingecko.com/en/defi Great Twitter thread on the bull case for $ETH. So be sure to buy $ETH. I think it’s a +3x from here this year, and possibly a 5x-10x within two years. Here's why I am bullish on #ethereum! Thread: - Ethereum has an incredible lead in terms of network effect. Deep liquidity. And the most developers by far. It will take years for a competitor to catch up. All the time eth will continue to grow.
- Eip 1559 will introduce fee burning for #ethereum meaning it will likely become a deflationary coin
- The Ether asset is the ultimate crypto index. Holding eth gives you exposure to defi, stablecoins, nfts, gaming, and everything else happening on eth. The more those succeed the more eth goes up.
- Ethereum has one of the deepest brain pools in crypto with a massive developer lead as well as human capital in terms of educational content.
- Institutional investment interest is super high. Eth is number two at grayscale and miles ahead of any other altcoin.
- Ethereum 2.0 will be game changing. Huge tps, dirt cheap fees, and highly efficient.
- Optimism when it comes out will be insanely big. It will allow applications to easily implement layer two scaling tech. Optimism is coming next month.
- Ethereum 2.0 already has over 100,000 validators. This is incredible decentralization. Most importantly putting the power in the hands of average users instead of massive mining cartels.
- Ethereum will be the first non Bitcoin crypto to get an ETF, huge potential for institutional investment
- Ethereum layer two scaling makes many of the zombie chains redundant
- Ethereum 2.0 is coming. Yes it is taking a long time, but until then it is still the premiere smart contract platform.
- Ethereum 2.0 changes the economics of eth from a mine and dump economy, to a stake and hold economy.
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Post by JHam on Jan 29, 2021 9:23:07 GMT
Elon just updated his Twitter bio lol
Love it, lol. |
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Post by biposter on Mar 7, 2021 19:59:22 GMT
Don’t want to spam this board with my endless pumpy bitcoin posts! (so I try to just add to my existing posts), but I think this one deserves its own: www.coindesk.com/40-of-goldman-sachs-clients-reported-exposure-to-crypto-survey Goldman Sachs recently conducted a client survey on cryptocurrencies. In this Coindesk article, be sure to take a close look at the chart at the bottom. Amazing stats! It says there were 280 survey respondents, and these clients who responded were pension/sovereign wealth funds, macro funds, hedge funds, asset managers, insurance co., banks, corporate clients, etc. So this was institutional/smart money, and look at how they responded! It’s no wonder Goldman Sachs recently said that they’re relaunching their crypto trading desk (and will be custodying crypto for their clients in the coming months, which was reported in another Coindesk article a few weeks back). - 40% of the respondents said that they currently have exposure to cryptocurrencies!
- 54% of respondents predicted that the price of bitcoin would range between $40,000 and $100,000 over the next 12 months. 22% predicted the price of bitcoin would >$100,000 in 12 months! So I think it’s fair to say that a nice chunk of Goldman Sachs’ clients are bitcoin bulls!
- Of all the respondents, 61% said that they plan a future crypto allocation (46%: up to 10% crypto allocation; 15%: >10% allocation; and 39% said they don’t currently have any plans to own crypto).
- And of those who have or planned to have a crypto allocation, which cryptocurrencies were of interest? 47% said BTC, and 29% said ETH. So they’re not only aware of but actually interested in Ethereum as well. 16% said “Other” so I’m assuming that it’s not Dogecoin! but rather the DeFi coins that they may be looking at.
Now, in that same article linked above, there’s an embedded video that said that JPMorgan did their own survey of 3,400 of their institutional investors, and 78% said they had no interest in investing in crypto (so 22% are interested!), but 58% did say that crypto is here to stay, with 21% saying crypto was a temporary fad. Despite the discrepancy between the two surveys (I’m guessing cuz it was JPM and what Jamie Dimon said years ago), the masters of the universe are flipping. Crypto is becoming its own asset class. There’s a wall of money coming in, and we can all frontrun the smart money, as most are not in yet. If you’re still not in, it’s not too late. DCA just $10K (maybe $20-25K lol) and buy hard pullbacks/correction (if any), and it’ll become $1M in a few years, I believe. Buying last year would’ve been like buying FANG (or “AANG”) 15 yr ago. But getting in now is still like buying FANG 10 yr ago. But, of course, first DYOR! This is not financial advice lol! But fwiw, I’d say: 60% $BTC, 25% $ETH, 15% DeFi tokens (and maybe a couple% in NFT tokens). *Edit: Thanks, JHam. A new post brings it right to the top of this message board, and I don’t want to do that too much lol! I try to post some useful info with each post, but sometimes I’m just posting some goofy tidbit I find interesting and funny! So if you don’t mind, I’ll stick with adding to my existing posts, except when I really think something’s worth drawing attention to, lol. Yeah, JHam, we’ve all been together for a long time -- through good and bad. You can tell everybody here’s a really good guy (gals here too?), and I hope we can all make some money together. I still keep up with all the posts here on stocks I’ve sold, and I’m always hoping those stocks do well, and folks still in can make some good money. Yeah, for sure, bitcoin/crypto has been very risky, but I think it’s really been de-risked over the past year. I’m actually worried about the speed and forcefulness of this ascent, and all the attention it’s drawn from the mainstream financial media. My biggest worry, actually, is bitcoin hitting $100K too fast. Cuz I think if the U.S. gov’t really does feel like the dollar is being threatened, it will do whatever it needs to do, including banning bitcoin, like FDR did with gold in the 1930s. I don’t think the ban will work, and at this stage, it’s almost impossible. Coinbase alone has 43M user accounts, and I’m guessing most are U.S. customers. Now take all the retail crypto accounts from Square, Robinhood, Kraken, Gemini, etc., and you think 30m U.S. citizens will be happy having their bitcoin banned lol? Not to mention a quarter of Wall Street in both their personal accounts and in their funds. Yeah, JHam, not sure what you mean that your friend’s bitcoin “got stuck.” Even if he bought at the 2017 ATHs at $20k, he’s still way up. Or he self-custodied his bitcoin in his own hardware wallet (like a Ledger or Trezor) and he lost the seed phrase? That’s why despite what the hardcore bitcoiners say (“not your keys, not your coins”), I still think it’s best to keep it on a reputable exchange. Yeah, you can’t go wrong with all three, and they’re all based in the U.S., under U.S. regulations. But I do think Coinbase and Gemini are best. Both have top-notch security and are extremely trustworthy. I wouldn’t trust any non-U.S.-based exchange. But I believe you’re in Asia, so not sure about exchanges over there. I’m sure there are good ones. But don’t do OKEx or Huobi or any of the Chinese-based exchanges. Not even Hong Kong-based, with all that’s gone on over there. Nor Taiwanese-based. You never know if Xi will invade lol. I wouldn’t put it past him. Probably Singapore or Japan. You can set up 2FA with Google Authenticator on Coinbase, and Authy on Gemini. But you can earn interest with Gemini Earn, so I think that takes the nod. Yeah, I hear you about bitcoin being just a fad. For the longest time I thought it was just a scam, and I never really looked into it. I just thought it was like a video game token, or something to buy drugs with online. It’s a difficult read, but I’d actually recommend you start with the original Bitcoin Whitepaper. Unless you majored in computer science (I didn’t), you won’t understand half of it. But you’ll begin to appreciate that Bitcoin solved a three-decades-long problem of how to create decentralized electronic cash. Cryptographers and computer scientists had come with the components over 30 years, but not until “Satoshi Nakamoto” did all the disparate parts be combined together into a unified whole. Simple, yet brilliant. Anyway, I’m with your other friend pounding the table lol. But you never know. Like a very smart guy on this message board likes to say, follow me into a “stock” at your own risk  *Edit (3/9): dailyhodl.com/2021/03/09/wave-of-institutional-clients-at-goldman-sachs-are-diving-into-bitcoin-and-crypto-markets-according-to-senior-executive/ (Here’s some color to the $GS survey) Mathew McDermott, head of digital assets at Goldman Sachs’ global markets division, says the New York-based investment bank is witnessing huge institutional demand for Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto markets. In a Goldman Sachs Markets Update, McDermott reveals that institutional interest in digital assets at the Wall Street firm is accelerating among a wide array of large investors. “In terms of institutional demand, we have seen no signs of that abating. And when we talk about institutional demand we talk about the whole cross-section of the industry sectors… I’m referring to hedge funds, to asset managers, to macro funds, to banks, to corporate treasurers, insurance and pension funds. I think it’s pretty fair to say that all of that institutional client discussion is really focused around Bitcoin.” According to McDermott, more than a third of Goldman Sachs’ institutional clients who responded to a survey by the Wall Street giant reported that they are currently holding digital assets. “40% of the clients currently have exposure to cryptocurrencies. And that could be through a variety of different mediums, through physical, through derivatives, through securities products or other offerings in the market. And so that seemed actually a little high to me but I felt that was kind of very reflective of the demand we’ve seen over the last 3-6 months.” The Goldman Sachs executive also reveals that more than half of the survey respondents intend to expand their digital asset portfolios in the coming months. “I thought another interesting stat which really corroborates what we’ve really mentioned earlier was that 61% of the clients expect their digital asset holdings to increase over the next year.” The Goldman Sachs executive adds that loose monetary policies are what’s driving the institutional demand for digital assets. “Let’s take corporate treasurers for example. They are interested in two different aspects – firstly, should they be invested in Bitcoin on their balance sheets. And as they think through that, the key drivers from their perspective are negative rates – if they’ve got cash deposits where negative rates are being applied. And then just the general fears around asset devaluation.” |
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Post by JHam on Mar 8, 2021 0:41:41 GMT
Don’t want to spam this board with my endless pumpy bitcoin posts! (so I try to just add to my existing posts), but I think this one deserves its own: www.coindesk.com/40-of-goldman-sachs-clients-reported-exposure-to-crypto-survey Goldman Sachs recently conducted a client survey on cryptocurrencies. In this Coindesk article, be sure to take a close look at the chart at the bottom. Amazing stats! It says there were 280 survey respondents, and these clients who responded were pension/sovereign wealth funds, macro funds, hedge funds, asset managers, insurance co., banks, corporate clients, etc. So this was institutional/smart money, and look at how they responded! It’s no wonder Goldman Sachs recently said that they’re relaunching their crypto trading desk (and will be custodying crypto for their clients in the coming months, which was reported in another Coindesk article a few weeks back). - 40% of the respondents said that they currently have exposure to cryptocurrencies!
- 54% of respondents predicted that the price of bitcoin would range between $40,000 and $100,000 over the next 12 months. 22% predicted the price of bitcoin would >$100,000 in 12 months! So I think it’s fair to say that a nice chunk of Goldman Sachs’ clients are bitcoin bulls!
- Of all the respondents, 61% said that they plan a future crypto allocation (46%: up to 10% crypto allocation; 15%: >10% allocation; and 39% said they don’t currently have any plans to own crypto).
- And of those who have or planned to have a crypto allocation, which cryptocurrencies were of interest? 47% said BTC, and 29% said ETH. So they’re not only aware of but actually interested in Ethereum as well. 16% said “Other” so I’m assuming that it’s not Dogecoin! but rather the DeFi coins that they may be looking at.
Now, in that same article linked above, there’s an embedded video that said that JPMorgan did their own survey of 3,400 of their institutional investors, and 78% said they had no interest in investing in crypto (so 22% are interested!), but 58% did say that crypto is here to stay, with 21% saying crypto was a temporary fad. Despite the discrepancy between the two surveys (I’m guessing cuz it was JPM and what Jamie Dimon said years ago), the masters of the universe are flipping. Crypto is becoming its own asset class. There’s a wall of money coming in, and we can all frontrun the smart money, as most are not in yet. If you’re still not in, it’s not too late. DCA just $10K (maybe $20-25K lol) and buy hard pullbacks/correction (if any), and it’ll become $1M in a few years, I believe. Buying last year would’ve been like buying FANG (or “AANG”) 15 yr ago. But getting in now is still like buying FANG 10 yr ago. But, of course, first DYOR! This is not financial advice lol! But fwiw, I’d say: 60% $BTC, 25% $ETH, 15% DeFi tokens (and maybe a couple% in NFT tokens). You’re not spamming the board. I appreciate the posts and your persistence to get people interested. For me, it’s just that I know absolutely nothing about it, and have long felt like, as 21% on the survey said, that it is just a fad that will go away. I also had a friend a few years ago (many years now) who bought several thousand in Bitcoin and then got stuck. Obviously that’s changed now, I have another friend who has been buying like crazy, and pounding the table at me to get in ASAP. Last night I watched a Bitcoin for dummies video to try and get a better idea of it all. I definitely am more interested now and do think cryptos are likely here to stay. I followed the dogecoin explosion a few weeks ago and am looking at how all of the cryptos are up right now on StockTwits. Maybe it’s finally time to dive in here. |
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Post by JHam on Mar 8, 2021 0:49:09 GMT
Incidentally, which Cryptocurrency trading platform do you use/recommend?
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Post by JHam on Mar 8, 2021 3:01:13 GMT
A quick look into it and seems like Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken are the big 3. Would I need to use a Google authenticator?
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Post by selluwud on Mar 8, 2021 14:52:54 GMT
I've got Voyager Digital VYGVF on my radar, and I bought a very small amount of ( 50 shares) GBTC in June of 2018 at 12.42. I should've bought a whole lot more.
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Post by JHam on Mar 8, 2021 15:05:40 GMT
I've got Voyager Digital VYGVF on my radar, and I bought a very small amount of ( 50 shares) GBTC in June of 2018 at 12.42. I should've bought a whole lot more. Cool! I opened a Coinbase account today, but am having trouble because it isn't supported in Japan. The bank account that I would use for any transactions however is based in the US. I sent an email to see if this is possible. |
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Post by selluwud on Mar 8, 2021 15:14:05 GMT
I've got Voyager Digital VYGVF on my radar, and I bought a very small amount of ( 50 shares) GBTC in June of 2018 at 12.42. I should've bought a whole lot more. Cool! I opened a Coinbase account today, but am having trouble because it isn't supported in Japan. The bank account that I would use for any transactions however is based in the US. I sent an email to see if this is possible. Good luck, even though I've been skeptical of the digital crypto coin concept from the start, it seems to be gaining in investors and value. I've invested not in the currency itself but the peripheral market associated with it. |
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Post by JHam on Mar 12, 2021 14:47:00 GMT
Cool! I opened a Coinbase account today, but am having trouble because it isn't supported in Japan. The bank account that I would use for any transactions however is based in the US. I sent an email to see if this is possible. Good luck, even though I've been skeptical of the digital crypto coin concept from the start, it seems to be gaining in investors and value. I've invested not in the currency itself but the peripheral market associated with it. Speaking of crypto, I finally got my account verified. I ended up opening an account on Kraken since it was the only one that supports trades in Japan. Looking forward to buying my first Bitcoin and Ethereum next week. |
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Post by selluwud on Mar 12, 2021 15:31:06 GMT
Good luck, even though I've been skeptical of the digital crypto coin concept from the start, it seems to be gaining in investors and value. I've invested not in the currency itself but the peripheral market associated with it. Speaking of crypto, I finally got my account verified. I ended up opening an account on Kraken since it was the only one that supports trades in Japan. Looking forward to buying my first Bitcoin and Ethereum next week. Good Luck, it's a spooky market. I bought some Voyager Digital VYGVF a little under 15.00 when I mentioned it the other day. They're in the crypto coin trading/exchange business and I see it being at a higher price further down the road. |
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Post by biposter on Mar 13, 2021 8:41:27 GMT
Cool, JHam! Btw, I responded to your initial post above. Yeah, Kraken is also solid. Here’s a punch bowl of kool-aid to celebrate!
(this tweet was on 3/1)
This is one of the most-followed bitcoin Twitter accounts -- author of the “Stock-to-Flow” model. He’s a Dutch quant trader/analyst at an asset management firm, which has multi-billion AUM. His model is included in all the Wall Street Banks’ internal reports (GS, JPM, Citi). It’s been reported in the WSJ, FT, and mentioned often on CNBC. I described what stock-to-flow is in some of my previous posts. You can click his bio and read his two Medium articles describing the model’s methodology. (Last year, other quant analysts showed that the S2F and BTC price correlation were not co-integrated, but it hasn’t been proven that the correlation is spurious.)
His “S2F” model has been a very accurate predictor of bitcoin’s price over its past 12-yr. history. This chart above is on a log scale, and each dot represents bitcoin’s price on the last day of the month over 12 years. The colors represent the time in relation to the “halving” (every four yr., the number of newly-minted bitcoin is halved). The first red dot is on the month of the halving. The stair-step white line is bitcoin’s predicted price based on its S2F.
It’s not so clear in the chart above, but he’s stated that this S2FX model predicts that bitcoin will hit $288,000 sometime this year. He has two versions of his model. He released his original “S2F” model two years ago, which was more conservative, and predicted that bitcoin would hit somewhere between $55,000 to $100,000 in 2021. Again, this was two years ago, and it’s now already crossed $55K. His revised model (“S2FX”) is the one he stands by today. This one predicts the $288K target in 2021.
This chart is not based on S2F. It traces and overlaps the price trajectory after the 2012 and 2016 halving. The 2012 price ascent was actually more aggressive than the 2016 arc. The dark blue line in the middle is the average. So if we look back to bitcoin’s history as a guide, then similar to the S2FX model, bitcoin will hit $286,000 by year’s end.
Alright, time to pull away the punch bowl! I guess we’ll see what happens.
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