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Post by jckrdu on Feb 25, 2020 13:45:35 GMT
www.esperion.com/I like this company as a long-term holding. Cholesterol lowering drug just approved by FDA earlier this week. Second drug likely to be approved by FDA on 2/26/2020 PDUFA date. Europe approvals likely coming in April, as EU CHMP Committee gave a positive opinion. Commercial ramp in process in US. Anyone interested should listen to recent CEO presentation at JPM conference, as well as recent press releases. IMO, undervalued anywhere in $60s or $70s. Future PPS direction likely driven from prescriptions written and market uptake. Products are good and fill a real need, so I'm bullish long-term. Some key upcoming milestones below:2/26 - FDA approval of combo drug. April - EU Approvals of 2 drugs. April - ROW (Rest of World) Partnership 2nd QTR / Early 3rd QTR - Second $150M milestone payment from Daichi as part of EU partnership (Triggered by 1st drug sale in EU). Some key risks (from my perspective): (These risks are also potential catalysts if they are addressed.)Late Feb / Early March - During earnings call, they'll likely layout their projected operating expenses for the next 12 months. Market may not like increased burn. April - Prescriptions written will be transparently reported by the company starting 4/10 on a public database. Prescriptions written may not meet market expectations.
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Post by jckrdu on Feb 25, 2020 14:08:48 GMT
Added some risks to above post.
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Post by jckrdu on Feb 27, 2020 14:33:55 GMT
Added at $51.
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Post by tmfbmf on Feb 27, 2020 16:00:48 GMT
You think it's a sell the news drop?
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Post by jckrdu on Feb 28, 2020 11:19:50 GMT
You think it's a sell the news drop? Partially... but other factors at play as well, IMO... - Sell the news drop (My cost basis is a little higher than $50. Was hoping for $80-$100 range on approval news. It did very briefly hit $80 pre-market on the run-up prior to news, but that was it. It's been a "sell the news" event since.) - Coronavirus / market sell-off has certainly had an impact. On several of the recent pullback days, ESPR traded with every tick lower of the XBI index. - Go-it-alone plan is taking hold. With yesterday's earnings release and projected operating expenses, I think its becoming clear to some that they are going to hire the 300 sales reps. IMO, some were still hoping for a near-term buyout, which now appears less likely. Some $ exiting on that news. Looking ahead, pps direction likely driven by sales/prescription numbers. Maybe some recovery if/when market/XBI recovers. Potential ROW partnership in April could also be substantial and have an impact.
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Post by tmfbmf on Mar 2, 2020 15:30:19 GMT
The CEO bought 5,000 shares at $49 on 2/28. Good sign.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 9, 2020 15:20:28 GMT
Full disclosure: I moved out of ESPR today as another stock I'm in (KALA) announced that they met the primary endpoint of their Phase 3 trial today. After briefly going green, KALA pulled back to $6. I was forced to buy more KALA at around $6. Plan to rotate back into ESPR shortly, no later than before end of March for April milestones. (Note: The fact that the CEO recently bought ESPR shares at $49 tells me that an imminent buyout - next several weeks - is not likely, so I'm comfortable being out of ESPR for a short time.)
GL.
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