Post by Yelk on Apr 12, 2020 16:00:00 GMT
Hey guys, came across this company and found the story very appealing to hold for 3-12 months for run ups or what I would call fairly safe hold data catalysts.
A few months ago TRIL was closing shop, no drugs, bad leadership, debt.
In Dec 2019 was 20 something cents a share and then couple months later hit almost $8. Monotherapy complete response and great P1 data responsible for first run up and when GILD bought FTSV, a similar (if not even as effective company) for $5 billion in early March the stock shot up 100% when the market said wow the value of this company is too small. Now obviously people took profits on that jump and COVID-19 has smashed the stock. I believe under $4 it is a buy with fair value of $8 late int the year. If it go bought in a similar deal it would be at least $15/share.
In January raised a ton of cash and now have plenty of cash representing 40% of value and will clean up all the debts and enough money for 2 years without thinking of raising.
Tumor associated antigen called CD-47 "do not eat me signal" protein on surface of tumor cells. Seems to be very durable and working on upping dosage. The data for some of these is at 45% confidence from some analysts from P1 and the only reason its not higher is because they have to be realistic as its P1... I'm not a scientist but the market seemed to agree.
So what are the catalysts - updates through 2020 on the prior data suggests more good news on the already good news and based on the efficacy I feel okay holding through this early data as it is early and have confidence in this stage.
I am long TRIL $4 as of Thursday, April 9 (not the best entry but given my research and confidence and undervalue I am fine there). I started small position as there is risk with COVID obviously and unknown times and catalysts aren't right away. I feel the stock is valued at half of companies worth now, has cash, excellent credibility from new data, new and experienced leadership and a product and pipeline with great efficacy that the market and eyes are obviously watching. If it gets under $3 and tests that $2.50+ support I will average down, but that would be a gift. If this gets bought out, its a 200-300% minimum upside but that's not my plan, would just be icing on the cake. Never buy a company assuming buyout.
- Raised cash January and good to go 2 years+ no raise, cleaning up debt
- Story has changed and sentiment from market is now positive with new leadership and credibility
- Excellent data with strong efficacy to start off the story and new pipeline
- GILD bought similar company in March for $5 billion (TRIL is $300M+ market cap)
- Catalysts are all updates in 2020 on already proven efficacy and continue to build the story