|
|
Post by Yelk on May 9, 2020 21:11:05 GMT
SNGX - Market cap 50M+ small
This company is gearing for breakout technical analysis before news coming later in the 2Q. I've outlined my thoughts in linked picture.
 Major update here and my apologies, the June catalyst already happened apparently. There is a high risk smaller data coming out and cash needed. Still dont understand why so undervalued but getting out 100%.I still like the trade idea but I'm out.
- Cash should be okay until after Catalysts in June/July per management, amount they have a burn.
- Warrants aren't until 100% upside mark from here
- I believe there is 100% potential upside by July here after doing a fair amount of due diligence and any good news it could turn from a short term spec play into a giant company with amazing pipeline
- I believe very high risk, but even higher reward for spec play and great data so far.
My due diligence is comprised of myself, 3 SA articles and tweets from people in biotech sector 20+ years stating:
"I'm baffled as to why this name is so cheap. My model shows it's worth $4.50... and that's only $120M MCap.
Cycle-2 data reported today show 40% response rate (vs. 4% placebo after Cycle-1). I can't see why this wouldn't be approved and could sell $100M as front-line CTCL use."
I am long as of $1.54. Again, I see this is as high risk and I don't like holding for data but I like this play, and the thing is it may run-up BEFORE end of June/July data.
|
|
|
|
Post by magnus123 on May 10, 2020 8:47:43 GMT
I wonder why the valuation is so low, when they really have such a promising drug in Phase 3. The market seems not conviced about the prospects of this program. I'm always skeptical, when a company with a cancer drug in Phase 3 with already positive preliminary results is valued so low. The market must be huge with no other drug approved. Whats wrong with them then?
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on May 10, 2020 13:27:00 GMT
I wonder why the valuation is so low, when they really have such a promising drug in Phase 3. The market seems not conviced about the prospects of this program. I'm always skeptical, when a company with a cancer drug in Phase 3 with already positive preliminary results is valued so low. The market must be huge with no other drug approved. Whats wrong with them then? I 100% agree with you, and people much smarter than me are also baffled. I am cautious as I am sure they are.
My only conclusion is:
- As outlined in my idea this stock was $3.30 2 months ago (over 100% up) (what it should be, before COVID and then sell off)
- Look at the last history, same support and breakout levels as this time and has proven can run.
- The company is small enough it can be manipulated by large money
- This stock has been garbage for 4 years so sentiment is meh about it
- It could have been genuinely forgot/not noticed (unlikely) but these are crazy times, eyes are elsewhere you have to admit
- Everyone is scared to make the move first because nobody else is
- Shorts are all over this on each news pop making it sell off, notice though how the last time it held and is floating perking up
- Small company = more risk
If I lost 50% of my investment value I would be okay with that value, I want to see what happens closer to June. If it doesn't break out into .70s soon then IMO something is off and I might sell, holding just for data seems like lotto.
I posted this last night because I've been following the stock for sometime, literally even watching L2 during the day. It just feels like its being "held" and the technicals are lining up for either breakout, or breakdown if in fact dud.
The biggest breakouts happen after a long amount of consolidation in an area and the chart just seems too perfect for me to walk by.
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on May 10, 2020 13:43:07 GMT
For the record, I agree something is "wrong" with the price action and can easily go down. I don't see this as high % chance of success and even few days ago there was some news that should have popped it but it was stuffed. Something is keeping it down. The short interest is also pretty high, was wondering if someone is keeping it down with shorts. I just like it when technical and fundamentals and timing all line up.
I also want to say that fighting the market is not a wise thing. By investing in this I'm literally saying you all are wrong. Which admittedly isn't the best idea. There have been 3-4 news pops in the last month or so and all have been pure sell offs and easy fades. But I'm listening to my gut as both a day trader and investor that the reason for that is because people know its popped last time and sold off so they buy before and sell on news or short it to hell on news and its thought of as a junk stock until its not and thats why buying starts shorts get burnt. I also think COVID selloff was a factor.
I'm almost curious enough to see what is infact wrong with the company to take a small loss, lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on May 11, 2020 11:07:59 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on May 12, 2020 17:52:12 GMT
Disclosure, sold half my pos here, leaving some lotto but not comfortable holding when this isnt moving.
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on May 16, 2020 2:18:48 GMT
Major update here and my apologies, the June catalyst already happened apparently (early). There is a high risk smaller data coming out and cash needed (opinions why its down). Still dont understand why so undervalued but getting out 100%.
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on May 18, 2020 12:11:59 GMT
Good chance I re-enter today if .70s breakout as company PR of Q results saying the big catalyst/more coming 4Q and no worries about cash. There may be another trial in pipeline released before then that has risk of failure not sure but ya watching today again.
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on May 22, 2020 18:48:12 GMT
.70s did break and hold so re-added here and looks like the breakout idea was right popping $2+++ today, won't be selling for long time, but I do think this is a high risk investment. Just wish I didn't sell my .5 entry like I did, but sometimes its easier to wait for confirmation.
|
|
|
|
Post by Yelk on Jun 24, 2020 11:39:39 GMT
P3 enrollment done today, data 4Q. Chart looking decent for entry sub $2.
|
|
