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Post by JHam on Dec 24, 2020 16:10:17 GMT
OK back down to planet earth for now. Amazing how these low floaters can just take off suddenly. I’m thinking we could possibly get a positive update next week or shortly after. I can’t imagine 4x the daily average in 30 mins was just traders. Maybe pump & dump, but with this turnover? Unlikely. It could be, but just seems really random for a pump and dump. There was no news (no pump), and there has been a steady accumulation the past few days. It would have had to have been an orchestrated pump/raid, which is possible, but I don’t know. Just seems unlikely, as you said.
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Post by JHam on Dec 24, 2020 16:21:53 GMT
I’m wondering if someone got a peek at that AD data.
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Post by JHam on Dec 29, 2020 16:18:54 GMT
Hope this rally holds today.
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Post by JHam on Dec 29, 2020 16:30:22 GMT
If I don’t sell right now, and this goes back down to $12 by the end of the day, I’ll be very disappointed in myself
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Post by selluwud on Dec 29, 2020 16:41:02 GMT
If I don’t sell right now, and this goes back down to $12 by the end of the day, I’ll be very disappointed in myself What's the reason for the volume? Any trading forums lighting up? Or sneaky news on the way?
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Post by JHam on Dec 29, 2020 17:39:14 GMT
If I don’t sell right now, and this goes back down to $12 by the end of the day, I’ll be very disappointed in myself What's the reason for the volume? Any trading forums lighting up? Or sneaky news on the way? I think people are just getting in before AD data. It is big volume though so you never know. Same for the run last week. Perhaps some knows something.
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 29, 2020 18:27:55 GMT
What's the reason for the volume? Any trading forums lighting up? Or sneaky news on the way? I think people are just getting in before AD data. It is big volume though so you never know. Same for the run last week. Perhaps some knows something. I agree that folks are trying to get in ahead of data. The float is relatively low for a biotech so it should really pop if there is good news. I love their platform (dominant negative TNF). With the anti-TNF signal that is out there for AD, it’s really cool to think that INMBs drug might give PK benefits in addition to differentiating between soluble/cell surface TNF. More positive data in AD could really send this thing up. Covid would be nice too but I bet it takes more time. Anyways...good luck!
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Post by JHam on Dec 30, 2020 1:11:05 GMT
I think people are just getting in before AD data. It is big volume though so you never know. Same for the run last week. Perhaps some knows something. I agree that folks are trying to get in ahead of data. The float is relatively low for a biotech so it should really pop if there is good news. I love their platform (dominant negative TNF). With the anti-TNF signal that is out there for AD, it’s really cool to think that INMBs drug might give PK benefits in addition to differentiating between soluble/cell surface TNF. More positive data in AD could really send this thing up. Covid would be nice too but I bet it takes more time. Anyways...good luck! It looks like Quellor is working in COVID patients. From the letter to shareholders just released: "Working closely with the FDA, we opened an IND for a Phase II trial to treat patients with respiratory compromise from COVID-19 infection. Although this is a blinded randomized trial that makes it impossible for us to see exactly what is happening, we believe Quellor is making a difference in both patients and the overburdened hospital system."
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 30, 2020 1:50:36 GMT
I agree that folks are trying to get in ahead of data. The float is relatively low for a biotech so it should really pop if there is good news. I love their platform (dominant negative TNF). With the anti-TNF signal that is out there for AD, it’s really cool to think that INMBs drug might give PK benefits in addition to differentiating between soluble/cell surface TNF. More positive data in AD could really send this thing up. Covid would be nice too but I bet it takes more time. Anyways...good luck! It looks like Quellor is working in COVID patients. From the letter to shareholders just released: "Working closely with the FDA, we opened an IND for a Phase II trial to treat patients with respiratory compromise from COVID-19 infection. Although this is a blinded randomized trial that makes it impossible for us to see exactly what is happening, we believe Quellor is making a difference in both patients and the overburdened hospital system."Thanks I didn’t see that. I don’t know management well enough to trust that statement. I suspect they are legit, but I don’t know. I suppose that they could have seen an overall shift in the entire unblinded population away from the median for disease progression at day 28. That’s what you would expect if the drug was working. But there’s a lot of snake oil in biotech and that’s a pretty nonspecific statement. Just looked at the trial and one thing really stood out to me as odd. Of the 4 hospitals running the Quellor trial, all have religious affiliations. 3 Baptist and one Jewish. None in California where the company is based. That is very odd to me. But I’m getting pessimistic in my old age. Strike anyone else as odd? Anyways...just my $0.22..
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Post by JHam on Dec 30, 2020 2:10:18 GMT
It looks like Quellor is working in COVID patients. From the letter to shareholders just released: "Working closely with the FDA, we opened an IND for a Phase II trial to treat patients with respiratory compromise from COVID-19 infection. Although this is a blinded randomized trial that makes it impossible for us to see exactly what is happening, we believe Quellor is making a difference in both patients and the overburdened hospital system."Thanks I didn’t see that. I don’t know management well enough to trust that statement. I suspect they are legit, but I don’t know. I suppose that they could have seen an overall shift in the entire unblinded population away from the median for disease progression at day 28. That’s what you would expect if the drug was working. But there’s a lot of snake oil in biotech and that’s a pretty nonspecific statement. Just looked at the trial and one thing really stood out to me as odd. Of the 4 hospitals running the Quellor trial, all have religious affiliations. 3 Baptist and one Jewish. None in California where the company is based. That is very odd to me. But I’m getting pessimistic in my old age. Strike anyone else as odd? Anyways...just my $0.22.. It’s always good to be skeptical. After years of following/trading corrupt scam biotech companies, I am happy to say that these guys are legit. I have listened to all of their calls, watched their symposiums, and read through their filings. I think management has done a good job at not overhyping the preliminary P1b data, despite how promising it was. As for the religious hospitals. They went with the areas where COVID was spiking the worst, which also happened to be the Bible-belt (Old Testament belt? 😅). For reference, they went from this, after the first COVID patient was enrolled: “...we believe Quellor™ can blunt the symptoms of this dysregulated immune response.” To this, today... “...we believe Quellor is making a difference in both patients and the overburdened hospital system.” So while they haven’t seen the data yet, I think it’s likely they’ve heard from doctors and nurses.
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Post by JHam on Dec 30, 2020 2:21:33 GMT
I think people are just getting in before AD data. It is big volume though so you never know. Same for the run last week. Perhaps some knows something. I agree that folks are trying to get in ahead of data. The float is relatively low for a biotech so it should really pop if there is good news. I love their platform (dominant negative TNF). With the anti-TNF signal that is out there for AD, it’s really cool to think that INMBs drug might give PK benefits in addition to differentiating between soluble/cell surface TNF. More positive data in AD could really send this thing up. Covid would be nice too but I bet it takes more time. Anyways...good luck! Last two points. Indeed the data will take more time. However, if they announce that the DSMB has given them the green light to enroll the remaining 266 patients, which we should hear about at any time, then we’ll know that they are having some success. This is the first biotech that I have felt comfortable buying and holding for a while. Partly because I trust management and the science, and partly because of that low float (not to mention they are well funded for now and a prime candidate to receive some government grants).
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 30, 2020 2:23:10 GMT
Thanks I didn’t see that. I don’t know management well enough to trust that statement. I suspect they are legit, but I don’t know. I suppose that they could have seen an overall shift in the entire unblinded population away from the median for disease progression at day 28. That’s what you would expect if the drug was working. But there’s a lot of snake oil in biotech and that’s a pretty nonspecific statement. Just looked at the trial and one thing really stood out to me as odd. Of the 4 hospitals running the Quellor trial, all have religious affiliations. 3 Baptist and one Jewish. None in California where the company is based. That is very odd to me. But I’m getting pessimistic in my old age. Strike anyone else as odd? Anyways...just my $0.22.. It’s always good to be skeptical. After years of following/trading corrupt scam biotech companies, I am happy to say that these guys are legit. I have listened to all of their calls, watched their symposiums, and read through their filings. I think management has done a good job at not overhyping the preliminary P1b data, despite how promising it was. As for the religious hospitals. They went with the areas where COVID was spiking the worst, which also happened to be the Bible-belt (Old Testament belt? 😅). For reference, they went from this, after the first COVID patient was enrolled: “...we believe Quellor™ can blunt the symptoms of this dysregulated immune response.” To this, today... “...we believe Quellor is making a difference in both patients and the overburdened hospital system.” So while they haven’t seen the data yet, I think it’s likely they’ve heard from doctors and nurses. That’s good to hear. I trust your assessment JHam, thanks. If Quellor looks good and there is strong AD data, lookout. $200M market cap currently...what’s fair for EUA for COVID and compelling AD data? $1B, $2.5B, more? If it’s that compelling I’d expect a quick partnership too. Of course my single biggest mistake in biotech has being thinking too optimistically LOL...here’s hoping this one is different. Cheers
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 30, 2020 2:24:53 GMT
I agree that folks are trying to get in ahead of data. The float is relatively low for a biotech so it should really pop if there is good news. I love their platform (dominant negative TNF). With the anti-TNF signal that is out there for AD, it’s really cool to think that INMBs drug might give PK benefits in addition to differentiating between soluble/cell surface TNF. More positive data in AD could really send this thing up. Covid would be nice too but I bet it takes more time. Anyways...good luck! Last two points. Indeed the data will take more time. However, if they announce that the DSMB has given them the green light to enroll the remaining 266 patients, which we should hear about at any time, then we’ll know that they are having some success. This is the first biotech that I have felt comfortable buying and holding for a while. Partly because I trust management and the science, and partly because of that low float (not to mention they are well funded for now and a prime candidate to receive some government grants). PS—what’s your trading plan? Sell some on the run-up? Hold through data release(s)?
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Post by JHam on Dec 30, 2020 5:26:34 GMT
Last two points. Indeed the data will take more time. However, if they announce that the DSMB has given them the green light to enroll the remaining 266 patients, which we should hear about at any time, then we’ll know that they are having some success. This is the first biotech that I have felt comfortable buying and holding for a while. Partly because I trust management and the science, and partly because of that low float (not to mention they are well funded for now and a prime candidate to receive some government grants). PS—what’s your trading plan? Sell some on the run-up? Hold through data release(s)? It went to $24 after they showed preliminary data on the first 5 patients. If they can repeat the same results in at least 80% of the expected 18-24 patients then I expect this to at least hit $500M (mid-$30s). That’s being very conservative though. I mean, what is a legit treatment for AD worth? I wrote my feelings about that somewhere a few pages back. Anyway, I will definitely sell some (perhaps half or even 2/3s depending on how it moves), and likely keep the rest for the long haul. Do you have a position in this now?
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 30, 2020 5:53:09 GMT
PS—what’s your trading plan? Sell some on the run-up? Hold through data release(s)? It went to $24 after they showed preliminary data on the first 5 patients. If they can repeat the same results in at least 80% of the expected 18-24 patients then I expect this to at least hit $500M (mid-$30s). That’s being very conservative though. I mean, what is a legit treatment for AD worth? I wrote my feelings about that somewhere a few pages back. Anyway, I will definitely sell some (perhaps half or even 2/3s depending on how it moves), and likely keep the rest for the long haul. Do you have a position in this now? Yes I have been buying. First bought back in July on the higher side but then bought more in November. I agree that AD treatment, even if early but with clear results, will be worth a lot. The antiTNF market is what...$40 billion annually and all on expired IP? Consider a new modality with activity in AD...it’s a big deal.
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Post by JHam on Dec 30, 2020 6:00:44 GMT
It went to $24 after they showed preliminary data on the first 5 patients. If they can repeat the same results in at least 80% of the expected 18-24 patients then I expect this to at least hit $500M (mid-$30s). That’s being very conservative though. I mean, what is a legit treatment for AD worth? I wrote my feelings about that somewhere a few pages back. Anyway, I will definitely sell some (perhaps half or even 2/3s depending on how it moves), and likely keep the rest for the long haul. Do you have a position in this now? Yes I have been buying. First bought back in July on the higher side but then bought more in November. I agree that AD treatment, even if early but with clear results, will be worth a lot. The antiTNF market is what...$40 billion annually and all on expired IP? Consider a new modality with activity in AD...it’s a big deal. Exactly. If they show clear data on AD, I don’t expect them to last long before getting acquired. Here’s a good slide from the Dec corporate presentation showing the market opportunity for the anti-TNF market. It’s a whopper, as you’ve written.
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 30, 2020 22:10:10 GMT
Yes I have been buying. First bought back in July on the higher side but then bought more in November. I agree that AD treatment, even if early but with clear results, will be worth a lot. The antiTNF market is what...$40 billion annually and all on expired IP? Consider a new modality with activity in AD...it’s a big deal. Exactly. If they show clear data on AD, I don’t expect them to last long before getting acquired. Here’s a good slide from the Dec corporate presentation showing the market opportunity for the anti-TNF market. It’s a whopper, as you’ve written. View AttachmentWhoa. Interested in everyone’s thoughts on this. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1711754/000121390020045464/ea132345-8k_inmune.htm
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 30, 2020 22:48:48 GMT
Poison pill it seems...I guess we can conclude our buyout interest speculation is well founded.
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Post by JHam on Dec 31, 2020 0:26:11 GMT
Poison pill it seems...I guess we can conclude our buyout interest speculation is well founded. Yeah I agree. I just glanced over it, but definitely seems like they only want to control the terms of any merger/buyout. There would be no need for a company to do this unless they felt they were about to become a prime acquisition target, imo. I’m gonna dig into this a little bit more and get back with you. Would love to hear the opinion of others as well.
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Post by JHam on Dec 31, 2020 2:06:27 GMT
Tailwinds, who covers INMB spoke with David Moss, the CFO, and said this: Shareholder rights plan enacted today is a very straightforward plan with nothing beyond the ordinary. These are put in place to prevent unsolicited takeover attempts. With upcoming data, INmune must feel that their stock is undervalued and not want to be vulnerable to any hostile maneuver. I continue to believe that the upcoming data will be a seminal event for this company.
I wrote back the following: I agree that it is a straightforward Rights Agreement. But wouldn’t you also agree that most biotechs in P1 don’t feel the need to make such an agreement when they don’t even have data published on 18-24 patients? I wonder if they caught wind of something. Perhaps the string of big volume days over the last week has made them conscientious of a hostile takeover?
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