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Post by magnus123 on Dec 31, 2020 11:28:09 GMT
Interesting discussion.
Regarding buyout speculation: companies like Biogen etc. are obviously desperately looking for a working AD drug. Alzheimer has been a graveyard in recent years and any success will be massively rewarded. With a super low float and good data in january, anything could happen. The shareholders rights plan was a wise decision. It's also a perfect timing for a data release, reflecting the recent hypes in names like GLSI and others.
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 31, 2020 14:49:43 GMT
Has anyone else here seen anticipation buying like that before? I tend to believe that someone knows more...
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Post by JHam on Dec 31, 2020 14:57:26 GMT
Has anyone else here seen anticipation buying like that before? I tend to believe that someone knows more... Yeah I agree. At the very least management has seen AD data, imo. That said though, AD is a very tough (almost impossible?) nut to crack. The fact that they could be the first to have a legit cure for it could be responsible for some over-excitement buying. Maybe it’s a bit of both?
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 31, 2020 15:35:26 GMT
Has anyone else here seen anticipation buying like that before? I tend to believe that someone knows more... Yeah I agree. At the very least management has seen AD data, imo. That said though, AD is a very tough (almost impossible?) nut to crack. The fact that they could be the first to have a legit cure for it could be responsible for some over-excitement buying. Maybe it’s a bit of both? In light of the poison pill yesterday, isn’t the most likely driver of this action institutional purchases in the open market?
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Post by selluwud on Dec 31, 2020 15:58:18 GMT
Yeah I agree. At the very least management has seen AD data, imo. That said though, AD is a very tough (almost impossible?) nut to crack. The fact that they could be the first to have a legit cure for it could be responsible for some over-excitement buying. Maybe it’s a bit of both? In light of the poison pill yesterday, isn’t the most likely driver of this action institutional purchases in the open market? There's probably a little bit of truth in all the speculative reasoning going on, all I know is that I'm going to enjoy the ride until there's more clarity on which to base any buy/sell decisions. GLTA
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Post by JHam on Dec 31, 2020 17:14:48 GMT
Yeah I agree. At the very least management has seen AD data, imo. That said though, AD is a very tough (almost impossible?) nut to crack. The fact that they could be the first to have a legit cure for it could be responsible for some over-excitement buying. Maybe it’s a bit of both? In light of the poison pill yesterday, isn’t the most likely driver of this action institutional purchases in the open market? I was actually going to write about this earlier. That considering the consecutive days of huge volume, management might have felt that a big institution/buyer was accumulating unusual amounts of shares. Thus they felt the need to make a rights agreement. That seems very possible, but as selluwud said above this post, it could be both.
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Post by JHam on Dec 31, 2020 17:25:45 GMT
Could we see $20 before AD data hits? In that case I may have to rethink my trading strategy.
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hort
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Post by hort on Dec 31, 2020 20:52:14 GMT
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Post by JHam on Jan 1, 2021 0:43:05 GMT
Plus Xenecor will get royalties (likely in the high single digits). Some have speculated that the poison pill was to protect them from Xenecor. I guess it makes sense, but jeeze, they are already going to make out like bandits with the current deal. No need to get greedy 😅
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Post by JHam on Jan 3, 2021 3:04:00 GMT
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Post by JHam on Jan 4, 2021 2:46:07 GMT
As we await AD data, here is an overview from Tailwinds from almost exactly a year ago (before interim data was released). Some good bits in here: twresearchgroup.com/2020/01/inmunes-efforts-in-alzheimerslow-risk-to-phase-1b-success/...Regarding the safety profile of XPro, this aspect of the trial is likely to not represent a significant hurdle for the drug. This is because the drug, under the name of INB03, has already been through a successful Phase 1 trial. As I mentioned, XPro is identical to two other drugs being developed by INmune; identical expect for the indication. The fact that INB03 has already passed a safety trial and is preparing the Phase 2 trial should bode very well for XPro to prove itself to be safe and well-tolerated.
The other endpoint of reduction in neuroinflammation is even more exciting from an investor standpoint. There have been many studies performed that demonstrate the issue of neuroinflammation in Alzheimer’s patients. One example of this can be found in this trial by Chou et al, where it was determined that patient’s suffering from Rheumatoid Arthritis were 8 times more likely to get AD.
Chou also went on, in his trial, to show that the risk of AD in these patients was reduced by 60% when they were given a TNF inhibitor. Thus demonstrating that the ability to reduce inflammation can lead to a dramatic decline in the likelihood of the appearance of AD.
Keeping in mind that XPro is simply a next-generation TNF inhibitor, it stands to reason that there could be efficacy shown in reducing neuroinflammation in the trial. A reduction in this would be potentially very meaningful from a treatment perspective and equally meaningful from an investor standpoint. The cost of treating AD runs in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually and there have been no successful drugs developed to date to treat the underlying causes of the disease or slow its progression.
Side note: One might ask about the TNF inhibitors tested by Chou, as they appeared to show efficacy. However, they also have issues related to their lack of ability to discern between soluble TNF and trans-membrane TNF. In brief, there are dangerous side effects of the currently available TNF inhibitors including increased rates of cancer, MS and more. XPro, by selectively targeting only soluble TNF, appears to not suffer from these comorbid diseases. Infection(1) Infection(2) MS MS(2) Cancer...
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Post by JHam on Jan 4, 2021 15:42:45 GMT
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hort
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Post by hort on Jan 4, 2021 17:00:03 GMT
Thanks for posting. Great overview. The valuation page is interesting. But their conclusion on market cap strikes me as incredibly conservative. Cheers
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Post by magnus123 on Jan 5, 2021 21:25:50 GMT
I think that i need to revisit Dan Carlsons portfolio on tailwinds again. He had some nice runners in the last weeks with INMB and ATOM. Havn't been there for a while.
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Post by JHam on Jan 6, 2021 1:05:23 GMT
I think that i need to revisit Dan Carlsons portfolio on tailwinds again. He had some nice runners in the last weeks with INMB and ATOM. Havn't been there for a while. Yeah, ATOM crossed $20 today, up from the $2s a year ago. TFFP is another one he is big on in the near term. He also likes ANIX. I didn’t agree with that pick so much. I owned it for about 5 seconds and got out, which was the right decision to this point at least. Overall though, I do like his research.
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Post by JHam on Jan 6, 2021 1:08:37 GMT
Thanks for posting. Great overview. The valuation page is interesting. But their conclusion on market cap strikes me as incredibly conservative. Cheers I agree. They’re using fully diluted numbers so that effects it a little bit and also the Xenecor royalty, but I mean, if they have the first legit treatment for AD, come on, lol.
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Post by JHam on Jan 7, 2021 15:44:00 GMT
The closer we get to AD data, the more I am thinking it will be a quick spike then sell the news event. Anyone else have a gut feel on this?
For anyone who doesn’t care about potential dilution and is focused on the long term I don’t think it really matters (assuming the data is great). I’m looking to take some off the top. I’m up 90% at the moment and am thinking of putting in a stop order around $17 just in case.
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Post by jamesjohnson12 on Jan 7, 2021 18:56:46 GMT
Seems like the AD data release will be the logical time for the next dilution event. However, I suppose that there is also some possibility that they announce a partnership that bolsters the stock price after the AD release.
I am inclined to agree with you. I may sell 25-40% on the spike and possibly let the balance ride. Hopefully, will all be house money at that point and we have the covid trial results or update in a few months that could drive this higher. I am definitely going to hold a long term position of at least half of my shares, possibly more.
Loving this slow and steady rise. Could we, perhaps, reach $25 or $30+ before data announcement? That would be 250%+ for me and would make it a lot easier to sell a chunk and still hold a significant amount for the long term.
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Post by magnus123 on Jan 11, 2021 15:37:21 GMT
Have they said anything about when we can expect the data in january?
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Post by JHam on Jan 11, 2021 16:14:58 GMT
Have they said anything about when we can expect the data in january? No, just “January”. On the corporate presentation though it is indicated to be in early January.
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