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Post by magnus123 on Aug 3, 2020 21:27:39 GMT
Due to the big pump today in EDRY, i just thought that it could be a good idea to discuss the shippers in a separate thread. The sector is going hot now and some other stocks could follow EDRY in the upcoming days or weeks. EDRY is done for me now, but if they dump it again below $4, i will buy back my shares.
Shipping stocks i know: (I will add more, when someone here presents a stock that is not listed in this post)
EDRY (Eurodry) SHIP (Seanergy Maritime) ESEA (Euroseas) DSX (Diana Shipping) EGLE (Eagle Bulk Shipping) NM (Navios Maritime Holdings) GLBS (Globus Maritime Limited) NMM (Navios Maritime Partners) PSHG (Performance Shipping) SB (Safe Bulkers) PXS (Pyxis Tankers) TOPS (Top Ships)
From these stocks, the most interesting micro caps are in my opinion EDRY, ESEA, SHIP, PXS, PSHG.
I have a tiny position in ESEA and plan to buy more. Free float is just 1.60M shares. Insiders own 34.80% of the company. The stock is more liquid in comparison EDRY and needs much more volume to get a comparable pump.
My favorite shipper now is Performance Shpping. They have 4 Aframax tankers and 1 Panamax vessel. They had big growth in both revenue and eps in Q1 and were actually profitable. Insiders own 57.45% of outstanding shares. Market cap is ~$35 Mio. Not as tiny as EDRY or ESEA, but the company is also in a better shape despite the pandemic. The biggest risk here could be a possible Re Split. A positive thing is that the company buys back shares from time to time.
The other one is Pyxis Tankers. Very interesting stock. Insiders own 81.36% of common stock! Market cap of just $18.24M. The float is only 3.98M shares at a share price of $0.85...
So, my favourite stocks after the EDRY pump are ESEA, PXS, PSHG. SHIP is difficult due to the horrible Re Split. But that could be also a good buying opportunity.
All these stocks are of course very risky and speculative. Risk management here is the key. Losses can be huge.
My blacklist: TOPS GLBS
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 5, 2020 13:16:35 GMT
What i like about PSHG is that they worked to clean the mess up with all the different preferred shares series, issued years ago. When they were known as Diana Containerships, they were a real dilution powerhouse with Kalani. Kalani was the firm involved in the endless Dryship and Top Ships dilution. The dilution with Kalani wiped shareholders completely out. www.pshipping.com/news/news-performance-shipping-inc-announces-repurchase-of-all-series-b-2-preferred-sharesThese were preferred shares issued to kalani. They bought the rest back and cancelled them. www.pshipping.com/news/news-performance-shipping-inc-announces-repurchase-series-c-preferred-shares-and-change-tickerA very old outstanding portion of its preferred shares series C, owned by Diana Shipping, has been bought back and cancelled. They have now only the common stock outstanding, as to my knowledge. A few 100k of the common stock have been bought back as well. So now, the situation looks really different. They made a smart move, selling most of their dry bulkers and buying Aframax oil tankers instead. With cash on hand of appr. $32M, the balance sheet looks really good and they are profitable. I will definitely be a buyer at the current prices.
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 7, 2020 3:03:58 GMT
For me, I prefer the dirty oil shippers. These guys are making crazy money right now and the market hates them for it. Case in point, STNG (announcement today) earned about 1/6 of its MC this quarter and was still punished 40c for it. They earned $2.40 per share *this quarter* on a $13 stock, and the price went down. It's insane. And it's exactly the sort of market mismatch that makes fortunes.
I'm not long STNG. But I am long DHT, FRO, and TNK, which have all risen above their WMA10. STNG will soon.
When the market loves them again, oil tankers are easy 3 baggers. All of them. Some are 5 baggers. Maybe more.
The market will love them again soon enough. The market has a very short memory.
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 7, 2020 7:59:02 GMT
For me, I prefer the dirty oil shippers. These guys are making crazy money right now and the market hates them for it. Case in point, STNG (announcement today) earned about 1/6 of its MC this quarter and was still punished 40c for it. They earned $2.40 per share *this quarter* on a $13 stock, and the price went down. It's insane. And it's exactly the sort of market mismatch that makes fortunes. I'm not long STNG. But I am long DHT, FRO, and TNK, which have all risen above their WMA10. STNG will soon. When the market loves them again, oil tankers are easy 3 baggers. All of them. Some are 5 baggers. Maybe more. The market will love them again soon enough. The market has a very short memory. Thanks for the suggestion. Just took a look into the financials of the companies you mentioned and that looks really great. Valuation is really low. I will put money into them! What do you think about PSH? They have four Aframax tankers and were profitable in the first quarter with growing revenue.
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 7, 2020 8:38:36 GMT
I will sell ESEA today to have more money for the oil shippers. The valuations are really insane. I've rarely seen such a gift.
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 8, 2020 8:53:28 GMT
I have now ESEA, PXS,.PSHG, TNK and DHT. I plan to sell ESEA at some point and buying maybe FRO instead. In terms of risk management, TNK and DHT are the bigger positions, while the rest is smaller. I also plan to buy more TNK.
PXS will report earnings monday after market close. I will decide before market close, if i will hold into the ER or sell it before.
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 9, 2020 22:16:32 GMT
What do you think about PSH? They have four Aframax tankers and were profitable in the first quarter with growing revenue. TBH I've never looked at them before. But my take on tankers is that they are all really one market/play. And it's a strange market, as none of the companies can do anything to increase or decrease that market's size (volume or price). I mean, how cheap would an oil tanker need to be for you or I or Microsoft to rent one? It's a ludicrous question. And no one is going to send oil from Saudi to China by rail or air because tanker rates are too high... So my strategy in the past has been to buy some reasonable number of them for protection against company-specific idiocy and let them run. This time I'm going to take bigger positions in the first three that turned up (and two of which have *monster* dividends. Some people hate dividends in a tanker, I like them. Because as I said, there's nothing they can do to increase the size of their market. What else are they going to do with the money?) Some will do better, some worse, and they are feast or famine together, so don't be afraid to bail on all of them once the market leaders start to roll over.
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 10, 2020 20:45:21 GMT
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 11, 2020 0:31:02 GMT
Given that DHT was up after hours rather than down, it's quite possible (not certain, merely possible), that the worm has finally turned and tankers are about to begin one of their legendary ascents. Or maybe we have to wait some more. But here's something to ruminate on, a chart of tanker spot rates: www.teekay.com/investors/teekay-tankers-ltd/market-insights/ courtesy of TNK. Tankers don't lease at the spot rate by day. They sign leases for 3- 6- 12- months at that spot rate. And that spot rate normally goes up from here. Lots of current tankers are still chartering on the rates of 3 months ago. Some are coming off those rates and re-chartering at current spot rates. So this chart does not say how far earnings are going to come down, though they will probably come down some, short term. But it does say that we are likely going up from here. Do I expect that DHT will earn .81 a share next Q? Not really. That's an amazing quarter. But even if they earn half of that, their annual EPS will be $2. With a .48 quarterly dividend. On an $6 stock. That's insane. Either earnings will tank during the traditional annual high period, or the price will catch up to reality. I'm long. In fact, I almost doubled my DHT holdings when it was lower this morning. So you know which way I'm betting.
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 11, 2020 20:17:11 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 11, 2020 21:28:43 GMT
I think that these are record high earnings and the stock is down. I don't understand this.
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Post by JHam on Aug 12, 2020 2:11:12 GMT
I think that these are record high earnings and the stock is down. I don't understand this. This stock always baffles my mind.
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 12, 2020 11:08:59 GMT
I think that these are record high earnings and the stock is down. I don't understand this. This stock always baffles my mind. Yes. I missed the big spike yesterday and hope now that the market will realise how good these earnings are despite the pandemic. Second half of the year should be a lot better due to rising charter rates.
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Post by JHam on Aug 12, 2020 13:40:32 GMT
This stock always baffles my mind. Yes. I missed the big spike yesterday and hope now that the market will realise how good these earnings are despite the pandemic. Second half of the year should be a lot better due to rising charter rates. Are you going to listen to the call?
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 12, 2020 13:58:00 GMT
Yes. I missed the big spike yesterday and hope now that the market will realise how good these earnings are despite the pandemic. Second half of the year should be a lot better due to rising charter rates. Are you going to listen to the call? I can maybe listen in the first few minutes. I'm not at home. Ecoethcon will maybe post some updates on ST, if he listens to the call.
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 12, 2020 16:06:18 GMT
ecoethcon's post on ST about ESEA:
"There is some confusion in the earnings due to how much of the gain due to the insurance payout was offsetting the gain the company would have gotten had the ship been undergoing normal operations and how much was booked during the present quarter.
Seems that some have overestimated the one time gain nature of the insurance payout and some have underestimated it leading to some disparity in how the stock should be valued. In any case I think at these prices and with the worst of the crises (meaning trade and health) seemingly behind us that this stock is undervalued.
In the call even adjusting for the current depressed market in resale of containerships the net asset value of the company was estimated at around $3.50 for share and $4.00 without the adjustment (so also if prices rebound).
Current prices reflect a very attractive discount. With little competition in terms of other stocks in this sector and in shipping in general this is a great opportunity."
I think that this explains the weird movement quite good.
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 13, 2020 13:24:40 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on Aug 20, 2020 20:30:04 GMT
A big bump in most small cap shippers. TOPS is up big on high volume and ESEA also nice. I have a lot of shares in ESEA and sold a fraction of my position today. My price target is much higher. I bought also EDRY for $4, as it has not seen a big move today. I will look to buy more tomorrow maybe.
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 26, 2020 20:54:40 GMT
FWIW, of my dirty (oil) tankers that had risen above WMA10, all but one of them are now back below. So I was too early, as usual. I'm back out until the sector shows more signs of strength and some upward momentum. Though for value shoppers I don't see that it gets much better than this...
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Post by magnus123 on Sept 10, 2020 20:05:16 GMT
I'm thinking about buying DHT, TNK, FRO or something else, as floating storage gets interesting again in the last days. More and more tankers have been chartered already. Just thinking about it right now.
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