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Post by magnus123 on Sept 10, 2020 20:31:52 GMT
DHT is maybe the best stock for that purpose as a pure VLCC play. But all stocks would likely move big in that case.
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Post by HR Farmer on Sept 14, 2020 21:08:35 GMT
DHT is maybe the best stock for that purpose as a pure VLCC play. But all stocks would likely move big in that case. Agreed. What's interesting is that the floating storage trade was all the rage for a few months, at least until Russia and Saudi cut production. But if we get into contango again, it could come roaring back. I wonder how many who bought April's highs and sold August's lows will get back in. Or will they say, fool me once... TBH I'm seeing some signs of life in the sector, but I'm always way too early. I have some sucker bids (knock the price down 10% from here and I'll own it long enough to flip it), but I'm purposely waiting until even the laggards start to move here. I'm looking at you ASC and TNP. Nevertheless anyone who loads up here is not likely to get hurt so long as they exercise some patience. |
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Post by magnus123 on Oct 1, 2020 21:54:15 GMT
Small cap shippers are finally moving. Especially ESEA was very nice. Still extremely undervalued given the fact that competitors like DAC and even the bigger names like Costamare or Atlas have surged. My PT for ESEA is $4. EDRY is also up, but i have no position there.
Pyxis jumped over 20% today. TOPS et cetera are also moving, but not much yet. I have a speculative position in TOPS. If the real shipper season starts, this one is always good for a big jump.
Feels like the shipper season is just around the corner. Volume in the sector is still low and needs to ncrease significantly.
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Post by magnus123 on Oct 1, 2020 21:59:33 GMT
DHT is maybe the best stock for that purpose as a pure VLCC play. But all stocks would likely move big in that case. Agreed. What's interesting is that the floating storage trade was all the rage for a few months, at least until Russia and Saudi cut production. But if we get into contango again, it could come roaring back. I wonder how many who bought April's highs and sold August's lows will get back in. Or will they say, fool me once... TBH I'm seeing some signs of life in the sector, but I'm always way too early. I have some sucker bids (knock the price down 10% from here and I'll own it long enough to flip it), but I'm purposely waiting until even the laggards start to move here. I'm looking at you ASC and TNP. Nevertheless anyone who loads up here is not likely to get hurt so long as they exercise some patience. The situation js really not easy here. We have no significant contango yet to justify a PPS increase because of that, but the overall demand is too low to drive rates higher. Really the worst case for tankers at the moment. I have no positions, but if i have some free cash available, i will buy DHT. |
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Post by magnus123 on Oct 22, 2020 21:33:56 GMT
Feels like shipper season is right around the corner or already here. GLBS had a big run today after it's massive 100:1 re-split, but most of the gains faded away. In the low floaters, i'm still in ESEA, but sold some shares recently and bought a lot again ín EDRY in low $4s. Still the craziest one of them all in my opinion.
Beside the low floaters, the container shippers have done very well so far. ESEA of course, but bigger names like DAC, GSL and NMCI even more. The rates are very high now, in fact the best in years. That is the reason why i bought NMCI at $1.44, because of a very significant exposure to the current rates in the reminder of the year, when they have to fix the majority of their vessels into new TCEs. The company should be then in the best financial position ever since it's spin off. The fundamentals in container shipping are very good with solid demand and low supply. A lot of vessels have been scrapped and the orderbook is almost non existent.
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Post by magnus123 on Oct 28, 2020 20:34:28 GMT
Looks like small cap shippers are ready to go crazy. Totally unexpected in this environment, but much welcome. SHIP is up almost 20%, ESEA from deep red to green and the others as well. I hope for a big jump in EDRY tomorrow.
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Post by JHam on Dec 5, 2020 0:42:32 GMT
Congrats to all of you holding ESEA. The spike over the last few days looks like it could be for real this time.
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 5, 2020 11:51:52 GMT
Congrats to all of you holding ESEA. The spike over the last few days looks like it could be for real this time. ESEA is now trading at Book Value/Share, which is almost historical. The last rates they achieved for the next 12 months + on some of their ships are amazing. |
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 5, 2020 13:34:52 GMT
I have only DAC and CMRE now in the shipping sector. Good companies, still cheap and good charts.
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 13, 2020 15:46:59 GMT
I bought a significant position in Grindrod Shipping (GRIN) on thursday and friday, as the stock crashed for now particular reason. Likely a sell off by traders who bought the stock at $4.50+ and who are panic selling now. low liquidity... Fundamentals are currently very strong for them with strong rates in Handysizes and Supra-/Ultramaxes. Ultramax rates from July to today: www.directupload.net/file/d/6031/ay7ra9rj_png.htmHandysize rates for the same period: www.directupload.net/file/d/6031/uu386vqn_png.htmHandysize trade is particularly strong! Problem is that they contracted a significant number of days already for the remainder of second half. But earnings should be still good overall. The Tanker fleet has been contracted for 150 days at ~$12,220/ day, generally MR Product Tankers rate are good in the pacific trade. The contracted days are above breakeven. I see a good possibility for earnings surprise in late January with H2 and FY2020 numbers. I will maybe sell all my shares before, if the stockprice goes up this year or in early january. If the stock loses even more, i'm ready to buy more. |
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 14, 2020 18:29:57 GMT
Another dip. I bought a little bit more. Shares below $3 would be such a gift!
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Post by magnus123 on Jan 4, 2021 18:50:21 GMT
I sold the majority of my GRIN shares today for $4.75. More upside possible, but i want to secure some profits.
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Post by magnus123 on Jan 13, 2021 16:39:05 GMT
I'm currently short CTRM (Castor Maritime) at $0.415. Completely stupid here. The company doubled it's share count in the last three weeks, diluting the Book value / share below $0.30. The most expensive dry bulk shipper currently! Horrible management, but Robinhooders pushed the price up with their stimulus checks likely:)
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Post by magnus123 on Sept 17, 2021 19:15:58 GMT
I'm currently starting a position in PXS. This is one of the last really cheap nano-cap shippers with a good management. Pittas, CEO of ESEA and EDRY is on the BoD of PXS. Sure, the clean tanker market is still shit with no silver lining, but it will likely not matter for shipper season. PXS also needs the stock price above $1 to regain compliance. They always did this and they NEVER had a reverse-split.
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 13, 2021 18:20:48 GMT
I'm currently in the process of building various positions across the tanker sector. Base case is that fleet orderbook in tankers is now very low, while the oil and oil products consumption will rise significantly over the next year with no further impact of the 'pandemic' on demand side. Right now, the optimism comes from a significant improvement in rates, as shown in the two charts of the BCTI (Clean Tanker) Index below. ![]()   Easy to see that clean tanker rates are on the rise! Almost no one is talking about it yet. Both larger and smaller ships are doing well and these are actually cash flow positive rates for most owners. Tanker stocks are still selling off with the weak market. Crude tankers have not seen this strong improvement, but they're improving with VLCC spot rates gaining more than 100% on average today, although they are still extremely weak. The highest clean tanker exposure can be achieved with STNG on the NYSE, which I loaded up on today. Another one is TNP, which has exposure to both clean and dirty tankers. Also very cheap. For a speculative trade, I'm in PXS. For the crude tanker trade, I'm planning to buy DHT and FRO. I'm looking forward to a strong 2022 in these names. Tankers are always very risky and rates can move big in both ways extremely fast. |
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 17, 2021 15:58:03 GMT
Added to FRO, STNG and initiated OET, Hafnia (Oslo exchange). Trimmed TNP, because they sold shares under a ATM offering below NAV.
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Post by magnus123 on Dec 21, 2021 15:09:25 GMT
Added again across the board. Floating storage is declining by about 20% recently, maybe due to gas to oil switching by asian power plants. Much cheaper right now than competing with europe on LNG cargoes.
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