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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 13, 2020 2:43:49 GMT
In light of the nationwide ammo shortage: Ammo, inc. (POWW) -- Scottsdale AZ manufacturer of rifle and handgun ammunition, mostly "boutique" as far as I can tell - subsonic, tracer rounds, and the like. Since their last 10-Q in February they've bought a brass factory in Wisconsin and equipment that should allow them to increase production by 500% on handgun, ~200% on rifle, and 600% on their boutique lines by year end. Plus about 3 months ago they opened a call center - 11 full time employees calling every gun dealer in the country and asking "Oh, you can't get ammo? How much do you want?" According to PR compared with 10-Q, they are selling about 10X the ammo they were a year ago. Selling is not delivering, though. Maybe 75% is going to backlog. Check my numbers here: ammoinc.com/2020/07/08/ammo-inc-provides-update-on-the-sales-call-center-performance/I emailed with their IR guy who assures me that earnings will be out (via 10-K) this week and probably tomorrow (8/13). They have been a money loser recently. But given the current ammo shortage and their aggressive ramping, if they are profitable at a higher sales rate this could be a rocket. Insatiable market Aggressive sales Production ramp GREAT ticker If you have no qualms about being an international arms dealer, you might check out POWW tomorrow before they file/announce. Note: I'm way long POWW and expect great things. How can you not make money selling cold water in the Sahara? BUT if they report a loss with no hope of a profit in the very near future, I'll sell and beg you to forget you ever read this post. Caveat emptor, amigos |
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 13, 2020 3:31:58 GMT
IR Guy also promises they are working on an exchange upgrade. No reason this stock can't be on NASDAQ for real. But first things first. Make some money doing what you do.
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 14, 2020 13:17:42 GMT
Filed NT 10-K, Grrrrr.... Earnings now on or before Aug 28.
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Post by selluwud on Aug 19, 2020 21:08:44 GMT
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 20, 2020 17:29:34 GMT
I am disappoint. If someone can't make money selling ammunition in this market... I'm out. Forget I said anything  |
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Post by selluwud on Aug 20, 2020 18:04:27 GMT
I am disappoint. If someone can't make money selling ammunition in this market... I'm out. Forget I said anything I dabbled in this issue after researching your post and it seemed to be worth a chance at a quick turn around . I made a whopping 39.95 after the earnings report didn't impress so much. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. It was worth a shot, It may yet pick up steam in the future and have me scratching my head. |
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Post by HR Farmer on Aug 21, 2020 19:35:56 GMT
It reminds me of those mining companies that, through high prices or low, never make any money but rather lose just enough to stay in business. I understand it from a mining perspective -- when prices are high you mine your marginal ore, which allows you to stay in business when prices are low. But I have a hard time understanding how an ammunition company is not ready for the best market they are likely to ever see. This should have been the market they've been preparing for. Instead, they might show a non-GAAP profit in 3 months. Well, OK then.
They're not coming off my watch list... in fact if I see the right chart setup I might own them again. But I really expected more...
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Post by captsmith77 on Oct 1, 2020 9:09:18 GMT
According to their last 10Q, their new production facility has the capacity to produce 200M rounds, or roughly 100M in revenues if you average a .50 cent pricing per rnd. They're only filling a "fraction" of that capacity, which has to impact their poor margins for cost of goods sold.
Ammunition is difficult to find, and on their website it shows a lot of their products as being sold out. I wouldn't think they'd need to spend what few $$$ they have on call center staff phoning gun dealers when there's probably a cheaper way of advertising.
Honestly I'd give anything to get my hands on a pair of 1,000 rnd boxes of .223 ammo priced at around $200-$250 per box. I really miss the surplus prices we had years ago.
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Post by HR Farmer on Oct 1, 2020 19:36:52 GMT
I wouldn't think they'd need to spend what few $$$ they have on call center staff phoning gun dealers when there's probably a cheaper way of advertising. They put out a PR yesterday saying that they now have a record backlog... Which is a positive spin on the fact that they are falling behind. It seems to me that taking orders that you cannot fill timely is a nice way to alienate your customers, not to get new ones. Dealer: Man, I can't get any ammo for a few month from my suppliers! %$^&%^$% POWW: Hey, how'd you like to buy some ammo from us? Dealer: Awesome, I'll write you a check today! When can I get it? POWW: A few months. *click* |
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Post by captsmith77 on Oct 7, 2020 18:56:50 GMT
One thing I had a problem with too is that in their filings they state their belief that their proprietary ammunition will outsell the other types eventually.
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Post by HR Farmer on Oct 19, 2020 14:35:36 GMT
After whatever that was last week, I'm back in at ~2.20 with a stop at 1.98. We shall see soon if POWW can make money selling water in the Sahara...
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Post by magnus123 on Oct 19, 2020 20:45:17 GMT
After whatever that was last week, I'm back in at ~2.20 with a stop at 1.98. We shall see soon if POWW can make money selling water in the Sahara... Should be great, but do they give the ammo away for free??? I always thought that ammo is a profitable business, but i'm not an expert. Do they have plans to get uplisted to NASDAQ? |
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Post by HR Farmer on Oct 19, 2020 21:26:05 GMT
Do they have plans to get uplisted to NASDAQ? IR guy says they do but would not give a time frame. Closed at $2, ouch. I picked the wrong bounce to go long. That said, I'm not in much of a hurry to get out, so I may break my stop rule on this one, or at least see if it closes on the weekly under my stop before selling. Volatility is your friend when you play it right. The hard part is playing it right |
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 19, 2020 22:02:40 GMT
Do they have plans to get uplisted to NASDAQ? IR guy says they do but would not give a time frame. Closed at $2, ouch. I picked the wrong bounce to go long. That said, I'm not in much of a hurry to get out, so I may break my stop rule on this one, or at least see if it closes on the weekly under my stop before selling. Volatility is your friend when you play it right. The hard part is playing it right I'm waiting till the end of the quarter, Dec or Jan on this one |
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Post by HR Farmer on Oct 20, 2020 19:22:35 GMT
"I'm waiting till the end of the quarter, Dec or Jan on this one" Not a bad call, most likely. I sold the 15% bounce on today's "We're falling further behind" PR for a little profit, but will look to get back in on a pullback (again). Personally, I'm a fan of volatile small-caps so long as they have an upward bias. Like CPSH, I think this one does, or at least should. It would be nice to not have to pay $15 in commission for every round trip. If they make money someday, that would be even better... |
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Post by captsmith77 on Oct 22, 2020 8:30:37 GMT
"I'm waiting till the end of the quarter, Dec or Jan on this one" Not a bad call, most likely. I sold the 15% bounce on today's "We're falling further behind" PR for a little profit, but will look to get back in on a pullback (again). Personally, I'm a fan of volatile small-caps so long as they have an upward bias. Like CPSH, I think this one does, or at least should. It would be nice to not have to pay $15 in commission for every round trip. If they make money someday, that would be even better... A lot of the brokerage firms did away with trade based commissions a year or two ago on the majority of trades. I wouldn't pay anyone the $15 roundtrip anymore as that's certainly a ripoff, though it may still apply to companies listed OTC, IIRC. That's another reason why I don't miss trading stocks that have commissions attached. I hated moving in and out of things quickly and having to come up with instant figures on what I would end up owing the brokerage firm. Commissions can really add up quickly when you're moving a lot of stock, and after most of your bigger firms came out one after another with free trades, you knew they were putting the screws to us all. |
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Post by HR Farmer on Nov 6, 2020 21:43:56 GMT
Yes, mine did for most listed companies. POWW still costs me $6.95 each way because it's "Other OTC". Pinks still costs as well, IIRC. This is the only company I trade that I'm willing to pay that, FWIW. It's liquid enough that you can get in and out in size, which takes the edge off the commission cost. For me, anyway. |
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Post by HR Farmer on Nov 23, 2020 21:04:31 GMT
FWIW, I'm enjoying the volatility here. Bot at $2.25 late last week, sold the spike to $2.50 today, closed at $2.47. Maybe it goes higher and I look like a chump here for leaving $ on the table, but I'll bet we all get another chance at $2.25 stock.
Even as they lose money selling ice in the Sahara, I just don't see a lot of downside from the $2.00-$2.50 level in this stock...
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Post by HR Farmer on Dec 2, 2020 21:07:04 GMT
... And there's your chance at 2.25 stock, lol. But caveat emptor, they just issued ~8m shares at $2.10 for cash.
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