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Post by JHam on Feb 23, 2021 15:31:46 GMT
OPTN has $143M in cash on hand, has a consensus estimate to hit $104M in 2021 revenue, an 86% profit margin. Yet it is now trading at a $205M market cap. I mean, come on!
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 23, 2021 15:36:13 GMT
OPTN has $143M in cash on hand, has a consensus estimate to hit $104M in 2021 revenue, an 86% profit margin. Yet it is now trading at a $205M market cap. I mean, come on! And we are not even $1 away from the lows last year. Unbelievable
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Post by JHam on Feb 23, 2021 15:53:17 GMT
OPTN has $143M in cash on hand, has a consensus estimate to hit $104M in 2021 revenue, an 86% profit margin. Yet it is now trading at a $205M market cap. I mean, come on! And we are not even $1 away from the lows last year. Unbelievable Is this actually going to go green today?
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 24, 2021 9:47:32 GMT
The $4 bottom was really strong. Nothing has changed, while other stocks have been destroyed. Very good and makes me feel more comfortable at this point. I added for the last time yesterday, looking ahead now for Q4 results. If we break the $4-5 channel with good numbers, we should fly.
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 24, 2021 21:43:28 GMT
On 12th february, 4,719,983 shares were sold short, up from 3,541,500 shares. That's a high short interest, when you keep the low avg volume in mind.
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 25, 2021 18:21:00 GMT
Short float at 16.92%, according to finviz today. Another increase from 12.7%.
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Post by JHam on Feb 26, 2021 0:37:08 GMT
Short float at 16.92%, according to finviz today. Another increase from 12.7%. Crazy to short this stock, especially right now.
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Post by JHam on Feb 26, 2021 16:39:41 GMT
This is absolutely ridiculous considering today’s share price: ・Professional analysts forecast $700MM in peak Xhance sales (some forecast peak sales in the billions/year). With a market cap of $220MM at $4.30/share, OPTN trades at .3X consensus peak sales.
So $700M~billions in peak sales with 86% margins...now trading at $200M
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Post by magnus123 on Feb 26, 2021 17:47:02 GMT
This is absolutely ridiculous considering today’s share price: ・Professional analysts forecast $700MM in peak Xhance sales (some forecast peak sales in the billions/year). With a market cap of $220MM at $4.30/share, OPTN trades at .3X consensus peak sales.
So $700M~billions in peak sales with 86% margins...now trading at $200M Ridiculous! It will be fun to see trading activity, when the market discovers OPTN. I can't remember that I have ever seen something comparable. Well, maybe QUIK at $3 The only difference is that you have 16% of the float (float is much smaller actually) sold short!
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 2, 2021 23:49:09 GMT
A few words about Lyra Therapeutics, mentioned by Boston Biotech as one potential competitor in Chronic Sinusitis and Rhinosinusitis. Only weeks after Boston Biotech published the research about OPTN, LYRA announced disappointing results of it's Phase 2 study in CS and CRS. They call it a "success", because the highest dose showed some significant improvement, but the stock crashed. Their chances of having success should be lower now, although they will investigate the highest dose in a Phase 3 study. But that is not a huge surprise. LYRA intends to start a Phase 3 trial at the end of 2021 - OPTN will get the results of their Phase 3 study by then already. They are years ahead of Lyra, even if Lyra is successful. Does anyone know how long it takes expanding the label of an already approved drug with the FDA?Question answered. Label extension is like a full NDA, but you only need the new efficacy data from a Phase 3 study for the new indication.
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 3, 2021 12:07:25 GMT
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Post by JHam on Mar 3, 2021 12:33:00 GMT
Hmm...I wonder why it was so much lower. If they can hit $80M that would be something. If the pps were drop lower than it already is with $80M guided, it would be even more ridiculous than ever, in terms of undervalue.
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 3, 2021 12:39:03 GMT
Hmm...I wonder why it was so much lower. If they can hit $80M that would be something. If the pps were drop lower than it already is with $80M guided, it would be even more ridiculous than ever, in terms of undervalue. I think that the drop of in person visits due to Covid is still slowing down growth. Bid at $4.05 now.
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Post by JHam on Mar 3, 2021 12:51:38 GMT
Hmm...I wonder why it was so much lower. If they can hit $80M that would be something. If the pps were drop lower than it already is with $80M guided, it would be even more ridiculous than ever, in terms of undervalue. I think that the drop of in person visits due to Covid is still slowing down growth. Bid at $4.05 now. Hold that, about to cross $5!
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 3, 2021 12:51:57 GMT
+35%!
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Post by JHam on Mar 3, 2021 12:54:54 GMT
They may have missed estimates, but 70% increase in prescriptions yoy and $80M guided for 2021? That’s fantastic!
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Post by JHam on Mar 3, 2021 13:00:06 GMT
I was thinking of shaving some off the top at $5, but I think I’m gonna hang onto this one with my full position for now.
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 3, 2021 13:18:21 GMT
I was thinking of shaving some off the top at $5, but I think I’m gonna hang onto this one with my full position for now. When americans are vaccinated in Q2, growth should skyrocket in H2. I have no doubt now about the bright future pf OPTN. We will maybe not breakout from the sideway trend today, but when we do, we should see a massive turnaround. I will not sell a single share.
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Post by JHam on Mar 3, 2021 14:27:42 GMT
I was thinking of shaving some off the top at $5, but I think I’m gonna hang onto this one with my full position for now. When americans are vaccinated in Q2, growth should skyrocket in H2. I have no doubt now about the bright future pf OPTN. We will maybe not breakout from the sideway trend today, but when we do, we should see a massive turnaround. I will not sell a single share. My only “fear” is that we may tread water now until H2. I am very overweighted here so I may go ahead and trim a little off the top for now even at a small loss, just to bolster my cash position.
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 3, 2021 14:57:00 GMT
When americans are vaccinated in Q2, growth should skyrocket in H2. I have no doubt now about the bright future pf OPTN. We will maybe not breakout from the sideway trend today, but when we do, we should see a massive turnaround. I will not sell a single share. My only “fear” is that we may tread water now until H2. I am very overweighted here so I may go ahead and trim a little off the top for now even at a small loss, just to bolster my cash position. Yeah, shorts will likely remain in control. I will maybe sell those shares i bought in the low 4s and hold a larger core position.
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