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Post by magnus123 on Mar 3, 2021 15:10:21 GMT
The guidance of $80 million seems to be really conversative. Only $20 million revenue / quarter should be easy to achieve, even when the largest portion of growth comes in H2.
As a footnote: Shares available to borrow declined from 1 million shares to less than 400k at IB. Shorts are in control and we need more positive developments to break that regime.
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Post by JHam on Mar 3, 2021 16:14:16 GMT
My only “fear” is that we may tread water now until H2. I am very overweighted here so I may go ahead and trim a little off the top for now even at a small loss, just to bolster my cash position. Yeah, shorts will likely remain in control. I will maybe sell those shares i bought in the low 4s and hold a larger core position. I sold 1/4 of my position at $4.10. At a 5% loss. No biggie, but wanted some extra cash and also wanted to re-establish a position at INMB, which I did.
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Post by JHam on Mar 4, 2021 15:02:27 GMT
OK, I hate to say it, but I am out. I didn’t like the way this has been trending, and after the CC it seems clear that it could tread water for the foreseeable future. With the market clearly under a correction, I want to preserve cash and this was the first one I decided to dump. Others to come as I try to go a bit leaner for a while. I’ll revisit this one later in the year as we get closer to CRS data.
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Post by JHam on Mar 5, 2021 15:25:27 GMT
Thank god I wisely sold my position here and saved myself an 8% loss...and put some of that money into INMB which instantly went down 22%
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 11, 2021 21:01:57 GMT
130k shares traded at the close for $3.76. I hope that this is a bullish sign...
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Post by JHam on Mar 11, 2021 23:50:28 GMT
130k shares traded at the close for $3.76. I hope that this is a bullish sign... Now that I’m out, it probably is 😅
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 18, 2021 13:47:50 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on Apr 7, 2021 8:41:12 GMT
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Post by mattyj7183 on Apr 7, 2021 18:11:04 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on Apr 8, 2021 8:38:26 GMT
Yes. Analysts are including the massive CS and CRS potential into the valuation. The market not. I think that this is the reason for the huge difference. But even without CS and CRS at this point, the valuation doesn't make sense.
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Post by mattyj7183 on Apr 8, 2021 13:11:37 GMT
I guess that's what I get for uploading while multitasking. Let me try this again...
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Post by magnus123 on Apr 8, 2021 15:10:40 GMT
There is a structural weakness in small biotech names. PRVB, OPTN, INMB as examples from our board. But I picked random names in the $100-500 Million range and 90% or so are underperforming - most of them with sell offs in recent weeks without a particular reason. Some are performing well (SOLY), but most stocks are really crappy at the moment. Anyone with an idea, why small biotech is so weak? Even when the market is on fire, small biotech is really weak.
I'm optimistic that more buyers will be attracted, but it's definitely not a good time in this sector.
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Post by magnus123 on May 4, 2021 20:49:59 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on May 4, 2021 21:20:57 GMT
youtu.be/m76twYTO_lwThe video about Xhance. One big point he makes is that vaccine deliver is possible with Xhance
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Post by magnus123 on May 5, 2021 11:12:38 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on May 24, 2021 9:00:16 GMT
Copy & Paste of my Stocktwits post: I guess that everyone missed it, but Peter just dropped a bomb on the RBC conference Tuesday. He finally talked about cash flow breakeven! He reiterated exactly what I said here before. The min $80 Million guidance will bring them "reasonably close" to cash flow breakeven. He expects the company to have appr. $100 Million cash eoy. This likely includes the additional $20 Million in debt they still can borrow. This fits well to my estimated cash position of appr. $80 Million at year end, not including the additional debt. It means that OPTN can reach breakeven next year with the existing cash without further dilution. Thats big news. Peter also said that the completion of both Phase 3 studies will bring opex down by appr. $25 Million, starting next year, so that OPTN should be well profitable next year. Guys, just do the math. Listen to the replay. event.on24.com/wcc/r/3173742/501CD3677181B4DE5A7640DBF063E23D
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Post by magnus123 on Jun 11, 2021 10:12:21 GMT
OPTN is finally improving. Biotech is now a great place to be in, as I expected it weeks ago. We had very positive developments in OPTN, including a newly issued guideline by the rhinologic society, which recommends Xhance after initial treatment with intranasal spray and before surgery or biologics. This is very important. Sales reps will use this treatment guideline as the key part in physicians offices.
Peter also indicated recently that OPTN should end the year with $100-110 Million in cash, then "reasonably close" to breakeven. I don't see a single reason, why OPTN should not massively improve in the upcoming weeks and months with offering fear out of the way. I added more on the last sell off.
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Post by magnus123 on Jun 28, 2021 16:24:59 GMT
OPTN is finally improving.
I said this way to early, ignoring the negative consequences of the Russell exclusion. This hammered OPTN back down below it's 50dma. Very frustrating. The covid data should be announced any day now in June. I really hope that they will do it...
One thing to note is that, despite the drop and the heavy selling due to Russell rebalance, the shorts are not covering. The borrow fee rate on Interactive Brokers is rising and is %2.71 today. Few weeks ago, it was well below %0.70. That is maybe completely irrelevant, but definitely interesting...
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Post by free air on Jul 8, 2021 16:39:37 GMT
I’ve looked into this and it looks solid by all metrics but is trading like it is about to go bankrupt. The only potential issue I can imagine is patent expiration, I don’t see this after reviewing their patents but I am not familiar with analyzing patents. Can someone comment on there patent protection? I’ve attached a link to there patents: patents.justia.com/assignee/optinose-as
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Post by magnus123 on Jul 8, 2021 19:05:28 GMT
I’ve looked into this and it looks solid by all metrics but is trading like it is about to go bankrupt. The only potential issue I can imagine is patent expiration, I don’t see this after reviewing their patents but I am not familiar with analyzing patents. Can someone comment on there patent protection? I’ve attached a link to there patents: patents.justia.com/assignee/optinose-asThis is from the latest 10k filing. Looks safe. "XHANCE benefits from substantial intellectual property and other technical barriers to entry, including drug delivery complexities. Our XHANCE U.S. patent portfolio consists of 13 issued device and method of use patents expiring from 2021 through 2035 and three issued design patents expiring through 2030, as well as pending patent applications. The 13 issued device and method of use patents are published in the FDA's Approved Drug Products with Therapeutic Equivalence Evaluations, commonly known as the Orange Book. We believe the unique features of our EDS device, as well as its delivery of a topically-acting drug, will present generic and 505(b)(2) new drug application (NDA) competitors of XHANCE with technical and human factors engineering challenges specific to drug-device combination products and chemistry, manufacturing and controls challenges unique to suspension and respiratory products. We also believe that any future substitutable generic competitors may be required to conduct, among other things, non-inferiority clinical trials demonstrating equivalent efficacy and safety outcomes to establish clinical bioequivalence to XHANCE. We believe these clinical trials, if required, would necessitate a significant amount of time and capital investment and present clinical development uncertainties. However, the FDA recently updated the list of product specific guidances for complex generic drug products that the FDA plans to issue in 2021 to include XHANCE, which may provide clarity for generic competitors to develop generic products that competes with XHANCE."
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