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Post by jckrdu on Aug 12, 2022 11:39:36 GMT
For anyone looking for a largely de-risked (3 FDA approvals) post-commercialization biotech with accelerating revenues, Myovant is worth a look: > Partnered with Pfizer via $4B+ milestone deal. > $500M in cash which should be enough to drive them to profitability over next 12-18 months. > New indication approved last week - endometriosis - has a large target market of approximately $2.4B. Current standard of care (SOC) for endometriosis is monthly painful shots, versus Myfembree (Myovant's drug) which is a once a day pill. Lupron is current standard of care for endometriosis and does approximately $1B per year. Myovant will likely ramp-up quickly to become the new SOC. > Over 50% of stock owned by insiders and institutions. 95M shares outstanding.... but available "float" is closer to 40M shares. So, small float company. > Potential buyout target by Pfizer anytime over next 24 months, imo. My target is $40 -$60 pps in 2-year timeframe, maybe sooner.
Risks: > Could be periods of stagnation between earnings calls until projected quarter to quarter revenue growth is confirmed. > Will trade with XBI when no news. > Recent run-up over $17 is due to recent FDA approval for new indication (endometriosis). May see a pullback, but maybe not.
In summary and imo, MYOV is a lower risk biotech with good multi-bagger upside over next 1-2 years.
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Post by JHam on Aug 12, 2022 13:47:30 GMT
For anyone looking for a largely de-risked (3 FDA approvals) post-commercialization biotech with accelerating revenues, Myovant is worth a look:> Partnered with Pfizer via $4B+ milestone deal. > $500M in cash which should be enough to drive them to profitability over next 12-18 months. > New indication approved last week - endometriosis - has a large target market of approximately $2.4B. Current standard of care (SOC) for endometriosis is monthly painful shots, versus Myfembree (Myovant's drug) which is a once a day pill. Lupron is current standard of care for endometriosis and does approximately $1B per year. Myovant will likely ramp-up quickly to become the new SOC. > Over 50% of stock owned by insiders and institutions. 95M shares outstanding. > Potential buyout target by Pfizer anytime over next 24 months, imo. My target is $40 -$60 pps in 2-year timeframe, maybe sooner. Risks:> Could be periods of stagnation between earnings calls until projected quarter to quarter revenue growth is confirmed. > Will trade with XBI when no news. > Recent run-up over $17 is due to recent FDA approval for new indication (endometriosis). May see a pullback, but maybe not. In summary and imo, MYOV is a lower risk biotech with good multi-bagger upside over next 1-2 years. Thanks for the write-up. Very interesting. I added it to my watchlist for now, but want to look into it some more and see if there’s a pullback in the next few days.
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Post by JHam on Aug 12, 2022 21:11:50 GMT
For anyone looking for a largely de-risked (3 FDA approvals) post-commercialization biotech with accelerating revenues, Myovant is worth a look:> Partnered with Pfizer via $4B+ milestone deal. > $500M in cash which should be enough to drive them to profitability over next 12-18 months. > New indication approved last week - endometriosis - has a large target market of approximately $2.4B. Current standard of care (SOC) for endometriosis is monthly painful shots, versus Myfembree (Myovant's drug) which is a once a day pill. Lupron is current standard of care for endometriosis and does approximately $1B per year. Myovant will likely ramp-up quickly to become the new SOC. > Over 50% of stock owned by insiders and institutions. 95M shares outstanding. > Potential buyout target by Pfizer anytime over next 24 months, imo. My target is $40 -$60 pps in 2-year timeframe, maybe sooner. Risks:> Could be periods of stagnation between earnings calls until projected quarter to quarter revenue growth is confirmed. > Will trade with XBI when no news. > Recent run-up over $17 is due to recent FDA approval for new indication (endometriosis). May see a pullback, but maybe not. In summary and imo, MYOV is a lower risk biotech with good multi-bagger upside over next 1-2 years. Well, so much for the pullback, today at least
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Post by jckrdu on Aug 13, 2022 14:08:08 GMT
For anyone looking for a largely de-risked (3 FDA approvals) post-commercialization biotech with accelerating revenues, Myovant is worth a look:> Partnered with Pfizer via $4B+ milestone deal. > $500M in cash which should be enough to drive them to profitability over next 12-18 months. > New indication approved last week - endometriosis - has a large target market of approximately $2.4B. Current standard of care (SOC) for endometriosis is monthly painful shots, versus Myfembree (Myovant's drug) which is a once a day pill. Lupron is current standard of care for endometriosis and does approximately $1B per year. Myovant will likely ramp-up quickly to become the new SOC. > Over 50% of stock owned by insiders and institutions. 95M shares outstanding. > Potential buyout target by Pfizer anytime over next 24 months, imo. My target is $40 -$60 pps in 2-year timeframe, maybe sooner. Risks:> Could be periods of stagnation between earnings calls until projected quarter to quarter revenue growth is confirmed. > Will trade with XBI when no news. > Recent run-up over $17 is due to recent FDA approval for new indication (endometriosis). May see a pullback, but maybe not. In summary and imo, MYOV is a lower risk biotech with good multi-bagger upside over next 1-2 years. Well, so much for the pullback, today at least Hey JHam - Yeah, no pullback yesterday. Imo, MYOV can still run a bit higher based on last week’s approval. XBI / sector has been strong lately and that’s providing some tailwinds. My crystal ball says XBI is going to test 100 over the next few weeks which should help drive MYOV a bit higher. My plan is to take some off the table around $20 - $22 and rebalance elsewhere. I’ll always keep a core position here as buyout is possible at any time, imo … and quarterly product sales growth of 20% plus is highly likely for the foreseeable future based on the endometriosis approval and the quick path to immediate product sales for a variety of reasons (same sales force selling to same patients who are getting prescriptions from the same doctors). Lots of positives.
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Post by jckrdu on Aug 13, 2022 14:51:38 GMT
A little more information: Official "Launch" News Coming in August - Per the approval news and conference call, the official launch of Myfembree for endometriosis is coming in "August". Product is available now for patients in the US. IMO, this news has the potential to get more eyes on MYOV and drive the pps higher. Organic Growth - The reason I'm happy holding shares here is I believe $20ish will become a new floor, as organic sales growth of 20% plus is highly likely given the product efficacy/safety profile and the competition. Myfembree became the leading product for uterine fibroids after just 12 months. They expect a similar but faster ramp-up for endometriosis. Check out their recent corporate presentation for those details. With 20% quarterly product sales growth ($40M last quarter) this company will be doing $1B in annual revenue by 2024/2025. Not many small cap biotechs out there with $1B in annual revenue that haven't been acquired by a big pharma. Presentation (Slide #28 Discusses Synergies driving fast launch & product sales)investors.myovant.com/static-files/d1ec37cc-74a9-47bc-9924-4dc731de2bd7
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Post by avtech on Oct 30, 2022 12:37:52 GMT
JCKRDU been meaning to thank you for sharing info on MYOV. After reviewing... in at 18 and out at 24...timing was outstanding!
Best to you and yours.
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Post by JHam on Nov 9, 2022 15:34:36 GMT
JCKRDU been meaning to thank you for sharing info on MYOV. After reviewing... in at 18 and out at 24...timing was outstanding!
Best to you and yours.
Yeah, great call on this one Jckrdu!
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 12, 2022 21:35:57 GMT
JCKRDU been meaning to thank you for sharing info on MYOV. After reviewing... in at 18 and out at 24...timing was outstanding!
Best to you and yours.
Yeah, great call on this one Jckrdu! Avtech & JHam, Glad to hear MYOV worked out for you! That was a good one. jck
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