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Post by JHam on Jan 14, 2015 18:10:10 GMT
Just added another 500 shares @ $5.88 and am going to try to continue adding as long as its under $6. And just added another 500 shares to my IRA @ $5.86! Me too. Just added a small 200 share chunk at $5.86.
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Post by JHam on Jan 15, 2015 10:36:00 GMT
www.midasletter.com/2014/12/uvo-research-inc-tsxnri-ceo-john-london-podcast-interview/Dec 11, so a month ago but very interesting conversation with CEO. I paid very close attention to his reaction of what they would do with the money now that they had it. There seemed to be good response to fund phase II and III for WF10 moving forward. I really can't find any new material we haven't already uncovered in this thread so I guess at this point we wait. Yelk, Nice find! I recommend that anyone interested should listen to the interview rather than read the transcript as they are a bit different. This is the first time I have ever heard any kind of call from this company. Was nice to hear the CEO basically confirm what we have been thinking. Here is a quote from right at the beginning: "We believe that there’s a high probability that the Phase 2 study results will be positive in which case we’re away to the races. But even if the results are negative, we’re still sitting with cash that is only slightly less than our current market cap."He even said a bit later that most biotech investing is so binary, you ever win big or lose big, but that he feels different with Nuvo. This is because while they think WF10 results will be very positive and be similar to the past trial, even if they are negative, they have revenue coming in from other products already and are trading at cash level. Really very little negative downside here in my opinion and I may try and add some more if it stays under $6.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 15, 2015 14:01:58 GMT
Yep I listened in while reading. Figured it wasn't too long and was worth it as it was the best source I'd found so far. As always need to be careful of "pumping" posts as the CEO was optimistic but honestly as promising as it was from a subjective outlook I think everything he said was fair whether it goes up or down. If it goes down more I may add a bit.
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Post by RLC on Jan 15, 2015 16:14:59 GMT
Grabbed another 1,000 shares at $5.80! I think I'm done adding here and am anxiously awaiting the WF10 data release!
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Post by RLC on Jan 15, 2015 16:53:19 GMT
Grabbed another 1,000 shares at $5.80! I think I'm done adding here and am anxiously awaiting the WF10 data release! What's really strange is that the purchase I made isn't showing up in the list of sales or even in the volume. This is the first NRIFF purchase I've made in my Scottrade account... my other purchases (through e*trade) showed up immediately in the list of sales as well as the volume. So I'm really not too sure what to think of this. Scottrade better not try to take my shares back
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Post by JHam on Jan 15, 2015 16:55:04 GMT
Grabbed another 1,000 shares at $5.80! I think I'm done adding here and am anxiously awaiting the WF10 data release! Nice! I just added 300 more, and I am done. Now I can have a meaningful trading amount and can still keep a core amount for the long haul, which I may very well do. So much upside and I think if results are positive, it won't be too long before they partner this out and start earning revenue on WF10.
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Post by JHam on Jan 15, 2015 16:57:34 GMT
Grabbed another 1,000 shares at $5.80! I think I'm done adding here and am anxiously awaiting the WF10 data release! What's really strange is that the purchase I made isn't showing up in the list of sales or even in the volume. This is the first NRIFF purchase I've made in my Scottrade account... my other purchases (through e*trade) showed up immediately in the list of sales as well as the volume. So I'm really not too sure what to think of this. Scottrade better not try to take my shares back Weird.
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Post by JHam on Jan 15, 2015 17:01:33 GMT
Yep I listened in while reading. Figured it wasn't too long and was worth it as it was the best source I'd found so far. As always need to be careful of "pumping" posts as the CEO was optimistic but honestly as promising as it was from a subjective outlook I think everything he said was fair whether it goes up or down. If it goes down more I may add a bit. The CEO was very optimistic in his interview, but it really just confirmed what we have already concluded here for a while now. Good luck to all of us. We're only a month away now.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 15, 2015 17:22:31 GMT
The volume is so low seems like when news comes out either way its going to explode. Going to be a fast call when to pull some out, and if any. Just seeing how much my small trades affect PPS it makes me wonder what it would cap at with excellent news vs expected. When deciding how much to put into Nuvo instead of focusing on the upside I basically asked myself how much could I lose max. Judging from the news and the chart the main reason for runup was a other news releases, the increase in cash obviously and WF10 and other pipeline rumours. I don't see WF10 at this point still being a month away accounting for more then a small % of the gain thus in at this point should result in minimal losses. Time will only tell.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 16, 2015 15:45:52 GMT
If anyone is looking for an entry point to this stock I think today is it. Look at the 1 year chart and shorter term and consider the catalysts. I added another small chunk today. I think it may go down tiny bit next week ill add another very small chunk to keep book value.
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Post by RLC on Jan 18, 2015 19:59:49 GMT
I've been a little disappointed with the PPS movement as we've been nearing the guided TLD release timeframe of mid-February (now less than 1 month away). The stock is up far over 100% in the last year, so I'm sure argument could be made that much of these gains have been a result of people buying in ahead of data release (although a lot of other value creating events took place in 2014, such as the litigation settlement and selling the US rights of Pennsaid 2% to Horizon for $45mil). I'm still anticipating some fast movement in the coming weeks as WF10 has far more potential than any therapeutic they've commercialized and it seems there's a high likelihood of this trial proving it safe & effective. Not to mention they are still trading at near cash levels (~$75 million MC w/ ~$60 million cash).
A few other things to keep in mind: -They have many products in development that haven't received much press (four in Phase 2; one in Phase 1; three in preclinical development) -They plan on commencing a Phase 3 study for Pennsaid 2% in Q2 of 2015 w/ results to be released in Q4 of 2015 -As mentioned in their latest investor presentation, they are constantly looking to sell or license out their products (which as JHam has pointed out, they are good at doing) -From a technical perspective it looks like there's been some healthy consolidation in the $5's on higher than average volume over the last couple months
So all things considered, I'm very excited about the next month (and beyond). I've already put way more than I originally anticipated into this company, but if it's trading down (or flat) on Tuesday when the market opens I'll likely make my final addition before results are announced.
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Post by JHam on Jan 18, 2015 23:10:01 GMT
I've been a little disappointed with the PPS movement as we've been nearing the guided TLD release timeframe of mid-February (now less than 1 month away). The stock is up far over 100% in the last year, so I'm sure argument could be made that much of these gains have been a result of people buying in ahead of data release (although a lot of other value creating events took place in 2014, such as the litigation settlement and selling the US rights of Pennsaid 2% to Horizon for $45mil). I'm still anticipating some fast movement in the coming weeks as WF10 has far more potential than any therapeutic they've commercialized and it seems there's a high likelihood of this trial proving it safe & effective. Not to mention they are still trading at near cash levels (~$75 million MC w/ ~$60 million cash). A few other things to keep in mind: -They have many products in development that haven't received much press (four in Phase 2; one in Phase 1; three in preclinical development) -They plan on commencing a Phase 3 study for Pennsaid 2% in Q2 of 2015 w/ results to be released in Q4 of 2015 -As mentioned in their latest investor presentation, they are constantly looking to sell or license out their products (which as JHam has pointed out, they are good at doing) -From a technical perspective it looks like there's been some healthy consolidation in the $5's on higher than average volume over the last couple months So all things considered, I'm very excited about the next month (and beyond). I've already put way more than I originally anticipated into this company, but if it's trading down (or flat) on Tuesday when the market opens I'll likely make my final addition before results are announced. RLC, Good post. Just wondering how you came up with a $75M market cap? I am seeing $62.39 on Google Finance, which may be incorrect, but seems accurate when you divide the current PPS with 10.78M shares outstanding. Numbers from the NRI quote (which says $73M) are in CAD currency. NRIFF is in USD and shows that we are really trading right at cash level. Unless I am missing something of course.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 18, 2015 23:19:23 GMT
I too have put far more than I anticipated into this company (2.5X more than ATHX) and it is mostly because of mitigated risk due to cash position and future catalysts/current news. Nuvo is actually my largest position now and for that reason I even purchased some institutional level analyst research of about 60 pages to read to in regards to employees, company, revenue, talking about PPS over the last while, past company performance back 10 years, all the technical analysis basically. It also went through competition, catalysts, projections, future potential partners and regions etc... I really wanted to get a better feel for the company so I could make a decision on how much I would take out (if any) at the end of February run up.
I too have been a bit disappointment in PPS movement but looking at the chart (if past projects future) it may just mean sharper rise instead of long and steady. Also keep in mind we have a month give or take still to go and the volume hasn't been noticeably increased that I've seen. I'm almost wondering if it is still a bit off the radar for the average investor - for example it isn't getting pumped at all yet in places like Yahoo infact very few people even seem to know about it in the last few years. Obviously flagged by chart watchers who have seem the 246% increase in the last year or so.
In conclusion I can see amazing potential for this company short and long term however nothing is risk free - there will be some hugs all around if WF10 doesn't produce better than desired results but I somehow have a gut feeling (combined with all the research i've done) that holders here will either win big or lose small. I think we will near $7 PPS before data release. Do we have a TP assuming WF10 has excellent results?
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Post by Yelk on Jan 18, 2015 23:20:33 GMT
JHam - According to the research I got today: Canadian figures, updated January 5, 2015.
Market Capitalization: 70,834,051
Total Shares Outstanding: 10,525,119
Closely Held Shares: 368,787
So about 10.8M shares consistent with my quotestream data and research data @ $6.82/share = 73.66M give or take.
It seems the information from all sources is slightly different but overall I think we can agree it is at cash level as we currently stand.
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Post by JHam on Jan 18, 2015 23:25:07 GMT
I've been a little disappointed with the PPS movement as we've been nearing the guided TLD release timeframe of mid-February (now less than 1 month away). The stock is up far over 100% in the last year, so I'm sure argument could be made that much of these gains have been a result of people buying in ahead of data release (although a lot of other value creating events took place in 2014, such as the litigation settlement and selling the US rights of Pennsaid 2% to Horizon for $45mil). I'm still anticipating some fast movement in the coming weeks as WF10 has far more potential than any therapeutic they've commercialized and it seems there's a high likelihood of this trial proving it safe & effective. Not to mention they are still trading at near cash levels (~$75 million MC w/ ~$60 million cash). A few other things to keep in mind: -They have many products in development that haven't received much press (four in Phase 2; one in Phase 1; three in preclinical development) -They plan on commencing a Phase 3 study for Pennsaid 2% in Q2 of 2015 w/ results to be released in Q4 of 2015 -As mentioned in their latest investor presentation, they are constantly looking to sell or license out their products (which as JHam has pointed out, they are good at doing) -From a technical perspective it looks like there's been some healthy consolidation in the $5's on higher than average volume over the last couple months So all things considered, I'm very excited about the next month (and beyond). I've already put way more than I originally anticipated into this company, but if it's trading down (or flat) on Tuesday when the market opens I'll likely make my final addition before results are announced. RLC, Good post. Just wondering how you came up with a $75M market cap? I am seeing $62.39 on Google Finance, which may be incorrect, but seems accurate when you divide the current PPS with 10.78M shares outstanding. Numbers from the NRI quote (which says $73M) are in CAD currency. NRIFF is in USD and shows that we are really trading right at cash level. Unless I am missing something of course. Never mind. Cash on hand is $60M CAD.
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Post by RLC on Jan 18, 2015 23:45:37 GMT
I've been a little disappointed with the PPS movement as we've been nearing the guided TLD release timeframe of mid-February (now less than 1 month away). The stock is up far over 100% in the last year, so I'm sure argument could be made that much of these gains have been a result of people buying in ahead of data release (although a lot of other value creating events took place in 2014, such as the litigation settlement and selling the US rights of Pennsaid 2% to Horizon for $45mil). I'm still anticipating some fast movement in the coming weeks as WF10 has far more potential than any therapeutic they've commercialized and it seems there's a high likelihood of this trial proving it safe & effective. Not to mention they are still trading at near cash levels (~$75 million MC w/ ~$60 million cash). A few other things to keep in mind: -They have many products in development that haven't received much press (four in Phase 2; one in Phase 1; three in preclinical development) -They plan on commencing a Phase 3 study for Pennsaid 2% in Q2 of 2015 w/ results to be released in Q4 of 2015 -As mentioned in their latest investor presentation, they are constantly looking to sell or license out their products (which as JHam has pointed out, they are good at doing) -From a technical perspective it looks like there's been some healthy consolidation in the $5's on higher than average volume over the last couple months So all things considered, I'm very excited about the next month (and beyond). I've already put way more than I originally anticipated into this company, but if it's trading down (or flat) on Tuesday when the market opens I'll likely make my final addition before results are announced. RLC, Good post. Just wondering how you came up with a $75M market cap? I am seeing $62.39 on Google Finance, which may be incorrect, but seems accurate when you divide the current PPS with 10.78M shares outstanding. Numbers from the NRI quote (which says $73M) are in CAD currency. NRIFF is in USD and shows that we are really trading right at cash level. Unless I am missing something of course. Ya you're correct JHam... it's $62 million. I looked up the company really quickly on google to find the MC and for some reason used the NRI quote. Good catch.
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Post by JHam on Jan 18, 2015 23:51:34 GMT
I too have put far more than I anticipated into this company (2.5X more than ATHX) and it is mostly because of mitigated risk due to cash position and future catalysts/current news. Nuvo is actually my largest position now and for that reason I even purchased some institutional level analyst research of about 60 pages to read to in regards to employees, company, revenue, talking about PPS over the last while, past company performance back 10 years, all the technical analysis basically. It also went through competition, catalysts, projections, future potential partners and regions etc... I really wanted to get a better feel for the company so I could make a decision on how much I would take out (if any) at the end of February run up. I too have been a bit disappointment in PPS movement but looking at the chart (if past projects future) it may just mean sharper rise instead of long and steady. Also keep in mind we have a month give or take still to go and the volume hasn't been noticeably increased that I've seen. I'm almost wondering if it is still a bit off the radar for the average investor - for example it isn't getting pumped at all yet in places like Yahoo infact very few people even seem to know about it in the last few years. Obviously flagged by chart watchers who have seem the 246% increase in the last year or so. In conclusion I can see amazing potential for this company short and long term however nothing is risk free - there will be some hugs all around if WF10 doesn't produce better than desired results but I somehow have a gut feeling (combined with all the research i've done) that holders here will either win big or lose small. I think we will near $7 PPS before data release. Do we have a TP assuming WF10 has excellent results? Yelk, I was about to post something similar. With such a low float and low liquidity, I think most people are hesitant to get in until the last minute. I also think this one is very much off everyone's radar. Trading on the OTC in the USA with no SEC filings, most investors outside of Canada have no idea about this stock. With $13M in annual revenue their current cash position should last for a long time. The way I look at it, they are are trading near cash level, so if results are negative there is still little downside. Regardless of the 246% increase over the past year, $700M-$1.1B is still $700M-$1.1B (which I still think is undervalued since that is only for the US and the CEO has made it clear WF10 will be a global product). So even if results are positive and the pps doesn't spike right away, if WF10 is going to capture that much of the market it will eventually be reflected in the pps. A $700M market valuation is 900% higher than the current MC. As crazy as that sounds, I don't see why it can't reach those levels and beyond. Lastly, I'll re-iterate that I believe WF10 will get partnered/licensed out early. And it won't be cheap for the partner. P. S. Very cool about purchasing analyst research. Be sure to share anything and everything that us little guys aren't privy to if you don't mind
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Post by JHam on Jan 19, 2015 0:18:22 GMT
Another good quote from the interview Yelk posted with CEO John London about licensing:
John London: At the moment we’ve had some preliminary discussions with some companies that are very interested in WF10. They haven’t been discussions on the basis that would acquire Nuvo, but as you can appreciate, there certainly are people that are very interested in acquiring rights to WF10 for various jurisdictions. At the moment, anyone that is interested will want to see the data from our Phase 2 study once it is available in Q1 2015.
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Post by Yelk on Jan 19, 2015 0:38:31 GMT
That is why I think this will be more tricky to time the market compared to something like BCLI where it is all or nothing. I can see this as a slow steady rise with spikes identical to the 6 month chart going forward. I think I will go long with this stock and sell and buy as needed but always a moderate position through all of 2015 until I see a higher level or risk than where we stand now. JHam, Most of the research I purchased was technical analysis and focused on past performance to predict future and used comparisons to 3 similar companies (this gave me a sense of what kind of a company it has been in the past). It didn't have as much commentary about products, projections, partners and global distribution etc and I didn't feel like paying another $125 for that report, I also feel it would have given little insight to what I've already gathered - though I never read it so we'll never know . While it reaffirmed, if you will, my confidence - I'm not a huge believer in past performance to predict future in volatile stocks like tech and bio tech although I definitely respect it, think it has value and is right a very good portion of the time. I would much rather make the decision more heavily weighted towards gut, experience, both personal and market attitude towards the stock and current information. I suppose if I was investing say Apple or Nike I would pay far more attention to technical analysis.
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Post by RLC on Jan 19, 2015 3:54:48 GMT
And just to shine a little more light on WF10 and it's potential to succeed, this is from the PR about the Psscion market study:
The study, performed by Psscion Lifesciences Consulting (Psscion), forecasts that WF10 could capture 10-15% of the U.S. refractory allergic rhinitis market with peak U.S. annual sales of US $0.7 billion to US $1.1 billion. “This market study confirms the significant U.S. market opportunity for WF10 to treat refractory allergic rhinitis,” said Dr. Henrich Guntermann, President of Nuvo’s Europe & Immunology Group. “Our clinical and case study data suggests that WF10 is a revolutionary therapy that provides symptomatic relief from multiple airborne allergens for up to 2 years after only 5 days of treatment. We are eagerly awaiting results in Q1 2015 of our ongoing 183 patient Phase 2 allergic rhinitis clinical study that is designed to confirm the positive results achieved in our earlier 60 patient Phase 2 proof-of-concept study.” About The Psscion StudyThe market study was conducted by Psscion, a U.S. based firm that provides strategic advice and market research to the pharmaceutical industry. Psscion was retained to assist Nuvo in determining the optimum strategy to maximize the value of WF10 for the treatment of refractory allergic rhinitis. In the course of the study, Psscion interviewed patients with refractory allergic rhinitis, practicing physicians specializing as allergists and immunologists and representatives from insurance companies and other payers. The additional findings in the study were: - Physicians were impressed by WF10‘s efficacy, long-lasting therapeutic effect, ability to treat multiple allergens with one dosing regimen and favourable safety profile as observed in the Company’s completed 60 patient Phase 2 proof-of-concept study and case studies;
- Patients and physicians believe that WF10 would address an unmet need in the treatment of refractory allergic rhinitis;
- WF10 could be an attractive alternative to subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) also known as “allergy shots” which are allergen specific and can continue for months or years causing many patients to either refuse or discontinue SCIT treatment; and
- Payers rated WF10 positively and felt that WF10 was unlikely to face significant barriers to coverage.
About the Company’s Ongoing WF10 Phase 2 Clinical TrialThis 16 week clinical trial is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to assess the efficacy, safety and tolerability of a regimen of five infusions of either WF10 or its main constituents (sodium chlorite and sodium chlorate) relative to saline control in allergic rhinitis patients experiencing persistence or recurrence of symptomatic episodes in spite of conventional treatment over the previous year. The trial will measure total nasal symptom score (TNSS) and other secondary endpoints. The trial is being conducted at 15 sites in Germany. It is fully enrolled with 183 patients participating. Top-line results are expected in Q1 2015. The trial is designed to confirm the results of the Company’s 2010 60 patient, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-center Phase 2 clinical study of WF10 for the treatment of allergic rhinitis which achieved statistical significance (P<0.001) for its primary endpoint (change in TNSS at week 3).
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