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Post by imz72 on Jan 24, 2016 14:44:59 GMT
Sell, buy, hold or tender - every option makes sense. When you bought ACTC/OCAT shares you thought it makes sense, while other person/entity thought it makes sense selling them to you.And correction: The percentage of shares that were tendered in the first round was 36.21%. The underlined statement assumes all MM's are legit and that NO failures to deliver exist right? My point is I do believe that 47% of the shares were really tendered, and to say we are lied to is living in denial. |
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asusdelux
Junior Member
UP listed.. now what?
Posts: 66 
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Post by asusdelux on Jan 24, 2016 15:22:15 GMT
The underlined statement assumes all MM's are legit and that NO failures to deliver exist right? My point is I do believe that 47% of the shares were really tendered, and to say we are lied to is living in denial. I can accept that. Fair enuff. I just cant help but think of this every time I feel like things were not on the level with OCATa I truly do respect your opinion. www.deepcapturethemovie.com/ |
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Post by anderdonau on Jan 24, 2016 15:33:24 GMT
I also think that 47% is the true number. While I believe that in the past OCATA's management on several occasions hasn't told retail shareholders the whole truth I don't think that they would lie about how many shares have been tendered. It's one thing for them to withhold one detail here or to not share some info there when dealing with retail shareholders. But sadly it's a totally different thing when they have to report numbers that play a vital part in a merger or acquisition.
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Post by vzveteran on Jan 25, 2016 15:32:22 GMT
If this deal falls through, and Astellas walks away, what will Gabelli do? Will he suffer a loss, when the PPS plummets? Will he then be forced to strike a bid on his own?
This question is what keeps me holding atm. The wheels have to be turning over at GAMCO...I'm sure plenty of DD was already in place when GAMCO started buying Nov 10th.
Volume very low so far today.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 25, 2016 16:14:33 GMT
If this deal falls through, and Astellas walks away, what will Gabelli do? Will he suffer a loss, when the PPS plummets? Will he then be forced to strike a bid on his own? This question is what keeps me holding atm. The wheels have to be turning over at GAMCO...I'm sure plenty of DD was already in place when GAMCO started buying Nov 10th. Volume very low so far today. Very low risk of deal falling through at this point with Astellas having 47%.
Even if they don't get to 51% by 2/9, their incremental cost to offer a little more to secure the needed additional shares won't be that much. Most likely scenario at this point is that they'll get the needed shares via the 2/9 extension or a subsequent extension.
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Post by morangie777 on Jan 25, 2016 16:31:35 GMT
If this deal falls through, and Astellas walks away, what will Gabelli do? Will he suffer a loss, when the PPS plummets? Will he then be forced to strike a bid on his own? This question is what keeps me holding atm. The wheels have to be turning over at GAMCO...I'm sure plenty of DD was already in place when GAMCO started buying Nov 10th. Volume very low so far today. Very low risk of deal falling through at this point with Astellas having 47%.
Even if they don't get to 51% by 2/9, their incremental cost to offer a little more to secure the needed additional shares won't be that much. Most likely scenario at this point is that they'll get the needed shares via the 2/9 extension or a subsequent extension.
Agree with the low risk of deal not going through. Small correction on the "incremental cost". It is irrespective of the current # of tendered shares, as an increased offer would apply to ALL tendered shares. (if I understood you right) |
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Post by selluwud on Jan 25, 2016 16:45:20 GMT
This is like the battle of "Thermopylae" and the Persians are being held at the gate, but they are out flanking the brave by sneaking around and down the mountain path to the rear guard leading to an eventual victory.
Persians = Astellas
Ocata shareholders = Spartans
The Traitor = Management & Board
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 25, 2016 17:40:07 GMT
Very low risk of deal falling through at this point with Astellas having 47%.
Even if they don't get to 51% by 2/9, their incremental cost to offer a little more to secure the needed additional shares won't be that much. Most likely scenario at this point is that they'll get the needed shares via the 2/9 extension or a subsequent extension.
Agree with the low risk of deal not going through. Small correction on the "incremental cost". It is irrespective of the current # of tendered shares, as an increased offer would apply to ALL tendered shares. (if I understood you right) Hey Morangie - Understood that the incremental cost would apply to all shares.
My point is that - in my opinion - Astellas won't need to offer much more than $8.50 (if the extensions aren't successful getting them to 51%) as a revised offer of $8.60 or $8.75 is likely to get them over the 51% threshold, and would represent a relatively small overall incremental cost to Astellas.
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Post by morangie777 on Jan 25, 2016 18:13:33 GMT
Agree with the low risk of deal not going through. Small correction on the "incremental cost". It is irrespective of the current # of tendered shares, as an increased offer would apply to ALL tendered shares. (if I understood you right) Hey Morangie - Understood that the incremental cost would apply to all shares.
My point is that - in my opinion - Astellas won't need to offer much more than $8.50 (if the extensions aren't successful getting them to 51%) as a revised offer of $8.60 or $8.75 is likely to get them over the 51% threshold, and would represent a relatively small overall incremental cost to Astellas.
Yes, agreed. |
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Post by runawaykinms on Jan 25, 2016 20:44:55 GMT
If this deal falls through, and Astellas walks away, what will Gabelli do? Will he suffer a loss, when the PPS plummets? Will he then be forced to strike a bid on his own? This question is what keeps me holding atm. The wheels have to be turning over at GAMCO...I'm sure plenty of DD was already in place when GAMCO started buying Nov 10th. Volume very low so far today. All he and his team would need to do is buy some put options! |
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Post by vzveteran on Jan 25, 2016 20:48:46 GMT
The cost of puts as a hedge would make the deal a net zero gain for them no? Why risk $17 mil for no return?
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Post by JHam on Jan 26, 2016 9:57:58 GMT
The latest from Aronson in the comments section of the SA article:
Hi, this is Gary Aronson again (why does everybody in these blogs hide behind anonymity?). Well, I guess figured out how to post or at least comment here.
I am currently long Ocata. I am still pondering my own options.
I wanted to mention a couple of things. As I read them, the Ocata Projections in its 14D-9 (Schedule 14D-9, p.33) project Risk-Adjusted EBITDA losses in excess of $200 MM, not $100 MM, as mentioned above. (I do not see exactly where the cited $100 MM figure comes from.) I have not independently evaluated these cost projections.
However, from my experience in the biotech industry, I believe that this much money could easily be used up, especially because this is a leading (one might say "bleeding") edge technology. Management could make mistakes in the design or execution of clinical trials. I've seen that before. The FDA could impose expensive and unanticipated requirements. Somebody could die on trial from wholly unrelated causes. Stuff happens.
If required, it is not easy to raise $200 Million. In a weak market, it could be VERY dilutive.
Further, in biotech, something almost always goes wrong, especially with new technologies, so timelines could be delayed and even more dilution than expected could occur. For example, I had two other portfolio companies, both with very different technologies, and each took ~2 and a half decades to get their planned products to market! I invested in ACT about 13-14 years ago, so, by that standard, we may be only about half-way there.
I think that Mr. Gabelli and his funds cannot be counted upon to provide the funding needed (though he is undoubtedly a great wizard and manages nearly $47 Billion). Here is a quote from one of their online offerings (Gabelli ABC Fund):
"The Fund's use of arbitrage may be described as investing in 'event' driven situations such as announced mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations. When a company agrees to be acquired by another company, its stock price often quickly rises to just below the stated acquisition price. If the Adviser, through extensive research, determines that the acquisition is likely to be consummated on schedule at the stated acquisition price, then the Fund may purchase the selling company's securities, offering the Fund the possibility of generous returns relative to cash equivalents with a limited risk of excessive loss of capital."
(Fund Overview for Gabelli ABC Fund AAA). This does not sound like a major long-term investment strategy. This sounds like short-term "risk arbitrage" to me. Not bad for him and his investors, but no panacea for Ocata, either.
If the Tender Offer fails, I will do my part to get things back on track. However, please be warned: this way is not easy, it will require a major commitment to bringing in new Management and capital and is fraught with perils. It will be "blood, toil, tears and sweat" to quote Mr. Churchill (http://bit.ly/1nJNcxV).
OK, this is a gross exaggeration. It won't be ANYWHERE near as bad as WWII. I apologize to all who made sacrifices in that conflict. However, it will still be a huge use of time and energy of whoever undertakes the effort and it will take years to prove out. Given the probable dilution, it might not provide a great (or even positive) rate of return to current investors.
No, I'm not in love with current Management nor do I think Mr. Wotton should get $3.345 Million for doing this deal. It makes me wonder. And Yes, I agree the $8.50/share is too low and I think Astellas should raise it.
But none of that is the point. The point is: What are YOUR REALISTIC options, right now?
I am not advising anyone to take any action, but to consult your professional advisors and weigh your options carefully and realistically.
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Post by anderdonau on Jan 26, 2016 10:32:28 GMT
"If the Tender Offer fails, I will do my part to get things back on track." seems like Aronson is not going to tender his shares.
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Post by thechurchmaus on Jan 26, 2016 14:09:58 GMT
he could make it fail quite easy if he wanted to!
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Post by actcfan on Jan 26, 2016 14:22:55 GMT
I think he knows it is over but also knows if for some reason it's not the stock will likely crater and he'll be partly responsible.
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sunny
Junior Member
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Post by sunny on Jan 26, 2016 20:41:11 GMT
"Have good trust in yourself, not in the One that you think you should be, but in the One that you are"
Dr. Lanza we are HOPEFUL
Shout out to msemporda who truly knows the value of OCAtA IP.
DO NOT TENDER!
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pablo
New Member
"Seeing is Believing"
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Post by pablo on Jan 26, 2016 20:57:00 GMT
Agree with the low risk of deal not going through. Small correction on the "incremental cost". It is irrespective of the current # of tendered shares, as an increased offer would apply to ALL tendered shares. (if I understood you right) Hey Morangie - Understood that the incremental cost would apply to all shares.
My point is that - in my opinion - Astellas won't need to offer much more than $8.50 (if the extensions aren't successful getting them to 51%) as a revised offer of $8.60 or $8.75 is likely to get them over the 51% threshold, and would represent a relatively small overall incremental cost to Astellas.
It worked last time when astellas just increase the offer by $. 50. It might work as well this time  |
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Post by actcfan on Feb 10, 2016 14:01:29 GMT
Heard OCAT halted? Assume done deal?
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Post by selluwud on Feb 10, 2016 14:05:16 GMT
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Post by vzveteran on Feb 10, 2016 14:13:45 GMT
I'll pull some off the table and let the rest ride. Gabelli made a quick buck.
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