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Post by JHam on Dec 8, 2014 13:11:02 GMT
The other thread had 31 pages so I decided to close that thread and start this new one. The conversation there had gone down hill and instead of moving a hundred posts, I thought it was better to start fresh.
Incidentally, for those who have not read This Thread, please take 1 minute and give this a quick glance. Thanks!
JHam
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Post by mmeyrow on Dec 8, 2014 14:06:22 GMT
Sorry to see you go through so much extra work so we can have a free forum. Thank you for the work.
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PAL
Junior Member
Posts: 51
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Post by PAL on Dec 8, 2014 14:08:52 GMT
Hi JHam,
FYI, link redirected me to home page...assume you intended to reference new rule enforcement thread instead.
Cheers
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Post by JHam on Dec 8, 2014 14:16:04 GMT
Hi JHam, FYI, link redirected me to home page...assume you intended to reference new rule enforcement thread instead. Cheers Doh! Thanks! Just fixed it!
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Post by wanderer on Dec 8, 2014 14:29:01 GMT
I will start this fresh thread with a few questions that have been on my mind for a while. I would love to hear some of your opinions, especially tradeup or anyone else participating in the offering.
If, or when, the final prospectus does come out with a discount and or warrants, what are your thoughts on what the PPS will do?
I am a little in the dark as to the possibilities. If the offering is announced at 5.50 does the PPS all of a sudden gap down to 5.50? or more? I have seen mention of a possible oversubscription which to my understanding means there is more demand for the 10 million. If this happens do the buyers purchase on the open market? Does the PPS react accordingly without the knowledge of those involved in the offering, mainly us? How long does the offering usually take and what do you see the PPS doing in the mean time?
I know it is a load of questions but I know many here have their theories as to what the PPS will do when the offering is announced. Thanks in advance
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Post by actcfan on Dec 8, 2014 15:03:49 GMT
Wanderer, All good questions, and I don't have the answers. I think anyone would be guessing. You can probably find examples where IF a pricing was discounted, the stock traded down and you can probably find examples where it didn't. The good news is we will know the answers this week from all indications.
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Post by thechurchmaus on Dec 8, 2014 15:05:11 GMT
some must be in the know how our subscription is going?does our rise in the pps reflect that knowledge and will it until the closing?i think so!big chunks are selling today at higher prices which seems to support this assumption.my only question is:who is selling?the closing price getting pushed down every day makes me think that lincoln is still getting shares.if i remember correctly the average over 10 days or 3 days closing determines the # for lincoln buys.
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Post by actcfan on Dec 8, 2014 15:14:46 GMT
some must be in the know how our subscription is going?does our rise in the pps reflect that knowledge and will it until the closing?i think so!big chunks are selling today at higher prices which seems to support this assumption.my only question is:who is selling?the closing price getting pushed down every day makes me think that lincoln is still getting shares.if i remember correctly the average over 10 days or 3 days closing determines the # for lincoln buys. There is a history of SA articles moving this stock both ways and today I believe there is a positive piece. FWIW
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Post by CM kipper007 on Dec 8, 2014 15:17:40 GMT
some must be in the know how our subscription is going?does our rise in the pps reflect that knowledge and will it until the closing?i think so!big chunks are selling today at higher prices which seems to support this assumption.my only question is:who is selling?the closing price getting pushed down every day makes me think that lincoln is still getting shares.if i remember correctly the average over 10 days or 3 days closing determines the # for lincoln buys. There is a history of SA articles moving this stock both ways and today I believe there is a positive piece. FWIW I read one about butterflies.
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Post by iamaverb on Dec 8, 2014 15:21:32 GMT
I believe the offering will price at a discount to the share price on the day of the closing. I also believe that price will be higher than the the initial offering price on the close of 12.02.2014 of $6.21.
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Post by JHam on Dec 8, 2014 15:30:42 GMT
I believe the offering will price at a discount to the share price on the day of the closing. I also believe that price will be higher than the the initial offering price on the close of 12.02.2014 of $6.21. I still think there will be a discount, but if the pps can continue to rise like it has the past few days it would make that discount a lot easier to swallow for current shareholders.
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Post by tradeup on Dec 8, 2014 15:44:58 GMT
Ocata investors (generally speaking) have a habit of being overly optimistic, especially during pump periods.
Flipped shares I purchased low-6 to lock in 11% profit and have a conditional equity offer in at $5.85 (max) -- subject to change.
We'll see what this week brings.
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Post by dayanand33 on Dec 8, 2014 16:01:09 GMT
Ocata investors (generally speaking) have a habit of being overly optimistic, especially during pump periods. Flipped shares I purchased low-6 to lock in 11% profit and have a conditional equity offer in at $5.85 (max) -- subject to change. We'll see what this week brings. I think you should have waited and sold it prior to the ipo date. This thing is sure to go up until then. Can't say what happens after that :-)
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Post by iamaverb on Dec 8, 2014 16:13:34 GMT
I believe the offering will price at a discount to the share price on the day of the closing. I also believe that price will be higher than the the initial offering price on the close of 12.02.2014 of $6.21. I still think there will be a discount, but if the pps can continue to rise like it has the past few days it would make that discount a lot easier to swallow for current shareholders. Exactly. Let's say the shares close at $7.00 on Thursday and they price the offering at a 10% discount for a net price of $6.30 a share, which would be higher than the $6.21 announced on the 2nd. Whatever happens, with no known obstacles in our way, I believe the share price will gradually rise over the next year on NASDAQ as the company continues with a measured release of news.
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Post by tradeup on Dec 8, 2014 16:23:50 GMT
Ocata investors (generally speaking) have a habit of being overly optimistic, especially during pump periods. Flipped shares I purchased low-6 to lock in 11% profit and have a conditional equity offer in at $5.85 (max) -- subject to change. We'll see what this week brings. I think you should have waited and sold it prior to the ipo date. This thing is sure to go up until then. Can't say what happens after that :-) We shouldn't confuse this with an IPO, it's a secondary offering + uplist ("re-IPO") with 10-11.5M shares being added to the outstanding -- likely 11.5M. The price of $7 x 45.9M shares (34.4 + 11.5M) equals a Market Cap of approx $317M. We are many months away from P2 AMD initiation and 1.5-2.5 years away from meaningful data. I don't expect equity participants (myself included) to be buying at such a premium.
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Post by tmfbmf on Dec 8, 2014 16:48:15 GMT
Tradeup, meaningful SMD data should be much sooner. At $10k/dose, we didn't care much, but at 6 figures SMD results are enough to move this stock. In 2018 we should be able to easily treat 500 patients in Europe (with no off-label usage). A 100/1 P/E gives us a $217 pps. I sold out completely last January and bought back in June. I'll never be out again.
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Post by actcfan on Dec 8, 2014 16:56:07 GMT
Tradeup, meaningful SMD data should be much sooner. At $10k/dose, we didn't care much, but at 6 figures SMD results are enough to move this stock. In 2018 we should be able to easily treat 500 patients in Europe (with no off-label usage). A 100/1 P/E gives us a $217 pps. I sold out completely last January and bought back in June. I'll never be out again. TMF, I believe both the presentation on the website and the roadshow indicate both SMD and AMD data in mid 2016 which would be 1.5 years away. I think he was padding it since history has shown there can be delays. I think Eddy is probably much better with putting up a realistic timeline but delays happen for all sorts of reasons, many of which are uncontrollable, so I wouldn't be shocked if there is one. I don't think they have been indicating that SMD patient data would be available before AMD data though.
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horus
Junior Member
Posts: 96
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Post by horus on Dec 8, 2014 16:56:59 GMT
I think you should have waited and sold it prior to the ipo date. This thing is sure to go up until then. Can't say what happens after that :-) We shouldn't confuse this with an IPO, it's a secondary offering + uplist ("re-IPO") with 10-11.5M shares being added to the outstanding -- likely 11.5M. The price of $7 x 45.9M shares (34.4 + 11.5M) equals a Market Cap of approx $317M. We are many months away from P2 AMD initiation and 1.5-2.5 years away from meaningful data. I don't expect equity participants (myself included) to be buying at such a premium. So the remaining data from the Phase 1 better vision cohorts won't me meaningful? I tend to think it will be stellar.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 8, 2014 17:08:49 GMT
We shouldn't confuse this with an IPO, it's a secondary offering + uplist ("re-IPO") with 10-11.5M shares being added to the outstanding -- likely 11.5M. The price of $7 x 45.9M shares (34.4 + 11.5M) equals a Market Cap of approx $317M. We are many months away from P2 AMD initiation and 1.5-2.5 years away from meaningful data. I don't expect equity participants (myself included) to be buying at such a premium. So the remaining data from the Phase 1 better vision cohorts won't me meaningful? I tend to think it will be stellar. Could be. But it is interesting that OCAT is going after later stage patients with GA as their primary target market, not earlier stage patients as many here (including me) originally thought based on prior company statements. Not sure why that change in direction, as all commentary prior to the release of the Phase 2 endpoints was that earlier stage patients was the target.
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Post by tradeup on Dec 8, 2014 17:08:56 GMT
We shouldn't confuse this with an IPO, it's a secondary offering + uplist ("re-IPO") with 10-11.5M shares being added to the outstanding -- likely 11.5M. The price of $7 x 45.9M shares (34.4 + 11.5M) equals a Market Cap of approx $317M. We are many months away from P2 AMD initiation and 1.5-2.5 years away from meaningful data. I don't expect equity participants (myself included) to be buying at such a premium. So the remaining data from the Phase 1 better vision cohorts won't me meaningful? I tend to think it will be stellar. I don't expect hearing about how 2a patients developed cataracts as a result of the procedure to be meaningful.
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