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Post by JHam on Jan 5, 2015 20:51:18 GMT
I made a nice 50% profit in this earlier in my retirement account. They had two patients die which is why I'm thinking this is dropping. Twelve ALS patients were evaluable for response. Of these, 11 patients showed a slowing of ALS disease progression at six months compared to baseline, measured either by improved ALSFRS or lung function scores, Brainstorm said. Two other patients enrolled in the study died. Administration of the NurOwn therapy was well tolerated by patients, the company said Yeah AF wasn't very fair in his reporting about the way the patients died in my opinion. The company has been very very vocal about the fact that those patients did not die from treatment with NurOwn but "expired" due to natural causes. One choosing to go via assisted suicide. The way AF writes it makes it seem as though they died because of the study.
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Post by dayanand33 on Jan 5, 2015 20:53:49 GMT
I made a nice 50% profit in this earlier in my retirement account. They had two patients die which is why I'm thinking this is dropping. Twelve ALS patients were evaluable for response. Of these, 11 patients showed a slowing of ALS disease progression at six months compared to baseline, measured either by improved ALSFRS or lung function scores, Brainstorm said. Two other patients enrolled in the study died. Administration of the NurOwn therapy was well tolerated by patients, the company said Per wiki, "Most people with ALS die from respiratory failure, usually within three to five years from the onset of symptoms. The median survival time from onset to death is around 39 months, and only 4% survive longer than 10 years.[24] " en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amyotrophic_lateral_sclerosis90% survival rate is a break through!
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Post by RLC on Jan 5, 2015 21:27:34 GMT
I made a nice 50% profit in this earlier in my retirement account. They had two patients die which is why I'm thinking this is dropping. Twelve ALS patients were evaluable for response. Of these, 11 patients showed a slowing of ALS disease progression at six months compared to baseline, measured either by improved ALSFRS or lung function scores, Brainstorm said. Two other patients enrolled in the study died. Administration of the NurOwn therapy was well tolerated by patients, the company said Yeah AF wasn't very fair in his reporting about the way the patients died in my opinion. The company has been very very vocal about the fact that those patients did not die from treatment with NurOwn but "expired" due to natural causes. One choosing to go via assisted suicide. The way AF writes it makes it seem as though they died because of the study. I didn't take AF's piece like that at all. I guess he didn't clarify that it wasn't due to NurOwn, but I would imagine most people that know how severe ALS is (especially in its later stages, which is where these Phase 2 patients are) would know that patients participating in lengthy clinical trials could pass away mid-trial.
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Post by JHam on Jan 5, 2015 21:29:27 GMT
I made a nice 50% profit in this earlier in my retirement account. They had two patients die which is why I'm thinking this is dropping. Twelve ALS patients were evaluable for response. Of these, 11 patients showed a slowing of ALS disease progression at six months compared to baseline, measured either by improved ALSFRS or lung function scores, Brainstorm said. Two other patients enrolled in the study died. Administration of the NurOwn therapy was well tolerated by patients, the company said Per wiki, "Most people with ALS die from respiratory failure, usually within three to five years from the onset of symptoms. The median survival time from onset to death is around 39 months, and only 4% survive longer than 10 years.[24] " en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amyotrophic_lateral_sclerosis90% survival rate is a break through! I agree it is groundbreaking. The next step is to prove this early ALSFRS data with a double blind placebo controlled Phase 2. If those results support what has been reported so far, then I believe this company and shareholders will have hit gold. This one played out exactly how we thought. Dump on the news and back into the $5s. For me the biggest thing now is seeing where the next round of financing will be priced at. Does the company and market feel that this data is worth more than this current market cap? Or do they feel that this overbought right now and should be priced lower. Like I said before, I don't mind buying back and holding in the high $4s/low $5s, but it still seems a bit inflated to me at the moment.
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Post by JHam on Jan 5, 2015 21:32:10 GMT
Yeah AF wasn't very fair in his reporting about the way the patients died in my opinion. The company has been very very vocal about the fact that those patients did not die from treatment with NurOwn but "expired" due to natural causes. One choosing to go via assisted suicide. The way AF writes it makes it seem as though they died because of the study. I didn't take AF's piece like that at all. I guess he didn't clarify that it wasn't due to NurOwn, but I would imagine most people that know how severe ALS is (especially in its later stages, which is where these Phase 2 patients are) would know that patients participating in lengthy clinical trials could pass away mid-trial. I liked the piece in general, but after he went on a few times to explain in detail why the price dropped on the news, I was surprised he wouldn't add one line after the sentence about two patients dying just to clarify that it wasn't due to NurOwn. No biggie though, I am not an AF hater like most out there and actually enjoy his insights.
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Post by lcd on Jan 5, 2015 21:47:18 GMT
The price didn't close strong and has dropped more after hours so I suspect this will continue to trend down tomorrow. I had a buy order for $5.50 all day but might hold off until I see where this goes throughout the week.
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Post by RLC on Jan 5, 2015 21:49:46 GMT
I didn't take AF's piece like that at all. I guess he didn't clarify that it wasn't due to NurOwn, but I would imagine most people that know how severe ALS is (especially in its later stages, which is where these Phase 2 patients are) would know that patients participating in lengthy clinical trials could pass away mid-trial. I liked the piece in general, but after he went on a few times to explain in detail why the price dropped on the news, I was surprised he wouldn't add one line after the sentence about two patients dying just to clarify that it wasn't due to NurOwn. No biggie though, I am not an AF hater like most out there and actually enjoy his insights. I know what you're saying, and after re-reading it I agree it's surprising he didn't clarify that. I'm not that fond of AF, but I wouldn't go as far as saying I'm an AF Hater. I questioned his investment thesis on a particular stock like 5 years ago (I think it was HGSI) and wrote him a very nice email looking for clarifications. His response was rude (I guess at least he responded?) and therefore I've always had a distaste for him. He has lots of experience and some great connections though, so I still pay attention to what he writes. I really wish I had listened to his advice on BlueBird Bio (BLUE) almost a year ago...
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Post by JHam on Jan 5, 2015 21:55:52 GMT
I liked the piece in general, but after he went on a few times to explain in detail why the price dropped on the news, I was surprised he wouldn't add one line after the sentence about two patients dying just to clarify that it wasn't due to NurOwn. No biggie though, I am not an AF hater like most out there and actually enjoy his insights. I know what you're saying, and after re-reading it I agree it's surprising he didn't clarify that. I'm not that fond of AF, but I wouldn't go as far as saying I'm an AF Hater. I questioned his investment thesis on a particular stock like 5 years ago (I think it was HGSI) and wrote him a very nice email looking for clarifications. His response was rude (I guess at least he responded?) and therefore I've always had a distaste for him. He has lots of experience and some great connections though, so I still pay attention to what he writes. I really wish I had listened to his advice on BlueBird Bio (BLUE) almost a year ago... I am sure somewhere down the road he will write something about a stock I like that will bother me a lot, but it hasn't really happened yet. Seeing how people just attack the crap out of him on Twitter and in comments to his articles etc...I am not surprised that he is defensive and maybe rude to people in his responses. Probably just a defense mechanism.
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Post by dayanand33 on Jan 5, 2015 21:56:50 GMT
Per wiki, "Most people with ALS die from respiratory failure, usually within three to five years from the onset of symptoms. The median survival time from onset to death is around 39 months, and only 4% survive longer than 10 years.[24] " en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amyotrophic_lateral_sclerosis90% survival rate is a break through! I agree it is groundbreaking. The next step is to prove this early ALSFRS data with a double blind placebo controlled Phase 2. If those results support what has been reported so far, then I believe this company and shareholders will have hit gold. This one played out exactly how we thought. Dump on the news and back into the $5s. For me the biggest thing now is seeing where the next round of financing will be priced at. Does the company and market feel that this data is worth more than this current market cap? Or do they feel that this overbought right now and should be priced lower. Like I said before, I don't mind buying back and holding in the high $4s/low $5s, but it still seems a bit inflated to me at the moment. Though I am pumped up about BCLI, deep down I know that the big investors are going to be cold and calculative during their valuation. To my knowledge none of the stem cell cos have completed Phase II ( DNDN being an exception). The stem cell science will gain credence based on end of Phase II results. Till then big investors will continue to seek discount at current pps. Therefore I prefer to be on the side lines now. On a different note ATHX phase II results can prove to be a turning point in Stem Cell stock valuations. If the results are positive, any subsequent IPOs or fund raising will rain money.
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Post by dayanand33 on Jan 6, 2015 2:54:53 GMT
seeking alpha article bashing the stock seekingalpha.com/article/2798175-a-look-at-brainstorm-cell-therapeutics-als-phase-iia-resultsSome of the sa articles are highly suspect. On hindsight, I wish I had shorted this stock today. Most of us here were pleasantly surprised by its meteoric rise in such a short while. Mere release of phase 2a data did not justify this rise. Following a stock for a very long time gives us an intuitive sense of when the stock is overvalued. The next time we should consider shorting it so that we make money in both directions
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Post by RLC on Jan 6, 2015 3:58:24 GMT
seeking alpha article bashing the stock seekingalpha.com/article/2798175-a-look-at-brainstorm-cell-therapeutics-als-phase-iia-resultsSome of the sa articles are highly suspect. On hindsight, I wish I had shorted this stock today. Most of us here were pleasantly surprised by its meteoric rise in such a short while. Mere release of phase 2a data did not justify this rise. Following a stock for a very long time gives us an intuitive sense of when the stock is overvalued. The next time we should consider shorting it so that we make money in both directions You're probably right on shorting, I guess I just don't have the guts to do it. I hate the idea of "unlimited" downside. With a company like this, if they happen to score a very favorable partnership out of the blue you could be out 300%+
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Post by lcd on Jan 6, 2015 12:06:11 GMT
That SA article is more of an Athersys promotion than an analysis of Brainstorm. Either way, I think the article is weak especially since he seems to think that it is better for ALS patients to just die a quick death instead of using a drug that might not be a complete cure.
I have never shorted a stock and doubt I ever will. Like RLC, I fear the unlimited downside. While I was confident that BCLI would drop yesterday, I still kept 20% of my shares just in case something unprecedented was presented. I also feel like shorting would require me to mentally hope a company fails and I really want these biotechs to succeed. I will continue to take profits into catalysts, which might aid in runups ending, but I don't want to actively cheer for the share price to fall. Not that I fault those who do short stocks. It is all business and yesterday business was good for shorters of BCLI.
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Post by RLC on Jan 6, 2015 15:37:33 GMT
BCLI dropping pretty quickly. Almost went below $5 this morning. I'm likely going to be adding to my small position if it drops much lower.
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Post by lcd on Jan 6, 2015 21:38:07 GMT
Bottom was $4.85 with the close right at $5. Wish I had unloaded the last 20% of my shares now. With no catalysts on the horizon, this one might lose all of its gains from the last few weeks.
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