Post by Yelk on Feb 17, 2015 5:21:51 GMT
Hello again everyone. Below is a company I’ve established a small position in and will be adding at this very attractive share price of $0.28. I’ll give a brief over view of catalysts I’ve uncovered through the companies website, last webcast financial report along with a few links and what we can expect from Jason Napodano. Also I will give some insight on my own valuations and plans.
Nuo Therapeutics Inc NUOT:US (OTCQX) www.nuot.com/about/
Current catalysts for 2015
• Angel Royalties 6-8X what Nuo was doing by itself, short term will replace net margin 2015 end
• Aurix getting large CED reimbursement equating to 70% gross margin
• New focused sales team and company name
• On January 08, 2015 Nuo Therapeutics and Rohto Pharmaceutical Co. Signed an Exclusive Licensing and Distribution Agreement for Aurix in Japan
• The wound care market is $3.4 billion in sales, with a dramatic shift towards cheaper, easier to use, more effective products expected in 2015 thanks to a monumental CMS decision in November 2013. Aurix is a highly effective product with favorable economics to both payers and providers
• Aurix has fantastic efficacy and safety data aurixsystem.com/results/
• Four CED programs of over 1,000 patients enrolling next few quarters followed by data this year will be largest wound data set in the world to promote products and funding
• 1 Month away from next quarterly report
Press release January 8, 2015:
On January 08, 2015 Nuo Therapeutics and Rohto Pharmaceutical Co. Signed an Exclusive Licensing and Distribution Agreement for Aurix in Japan one of Japan's leading pharmaceutical, health and wellness companies. Under the terms of the agreement, Nuo will receive an upfront payment from Rohto in exchange for an exclusive license and the right to develop and commercialize Aurix in the Japanese market. The agreement also contemplates additional royalty payments based on the net sales of Aurix in Japan and an additional future cash payment in the event specific milestones are met. In turn, Nuo will pay a one-time fee to Millennia Holdings (Millennia) to terminate the September 2009 license and distribution agreement. Millennia has been instrumental in establishing the advanced wound care market in Japan, and will continue to work with Rohto to develop the market for Aurix. Further, Rohto has assumed all responsibility for securing the Marketing Authorization ("MA") from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare ("MHLW"), while Nuo will provide relevant product information, as well as clinical and other data to support Rohto's MA application.
"This agreement is a significant validation of Aurix from a leader in the Japanese healthcare market, and an important milestone as we expand the product's footprint outside of the United States," said Martin Rosendale, Chief Executive Officer of Nuo Therapeutics. "We are excited to work with the team at Rohto to support its regulatory initiatives, and to share in the longer-term commercial success of Aurix as it enters Japan."
Kunio Yamada, Chief Executive Officer of Rohto Pharmaceutical Co., added, "We are thrilled to partner with Nuo to bring The Aurix System to the Japanese market. The license is consistent with our strategy of evolving Rohto into an integrated health and beauty care company and expanding into more advanced areas of life sciences, including wound care and regenerative medicine. We believe that the potential for this product is substantial, and look forward to taking Aurix through the regulatory process with the MHLW."
The foregoing agreements contain other terms and provisions that are customary to agreements of this nature. For additional detail relating to the terms and provisions of such agreements please refer to the Company's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC in connection therewith.
As per Jason Napodano’s research:
“To value Nuo Therapeutics, we are doing a simple "sum-of-parts" valuation for the two drivers of the top-line: Aurix sales and Angel royalties. We believe Aurix is a $100 million product for Nuo. We believe Angel is a $75 million product for Arthrex, Inc., of which Nuo gets low-teens royalty. We apply no value for ongoing clinical programs with ALD-301 in peripheral arterial disease or ALD-351 in glioblastoma. Based on our sales forecasts, our NPV analysis pegs the valuation of Aurix at $1.05 per share. We think Angel is worth $0.35 per share. Summing these parts two parts together we believe Nuo Therapeutics shares are fairly-valued right now at $1.40 per share. We think 2015 will be the year Nuo Therapeutics shines.” bionapcfa.blogspot.ca/2014/11/2015-will-be-year-nuo-therapeutics.html
My valuation and plans:
After listening to the 30 minute call, going over the data, looking at the market potential I had several thoughts. Regardless if Jason is being conservative or liberal in his numbers we will see an increase in royalties from Angel as we move forward. I think the plan for Aurex is fair and extremely focused. The company is getting a lot of support through funding, new opportunities and partnerships are being formed and the product itself is as Jason said outstanding and economic if you will.
My point is we are near the bottom here and there really isn’t much room for downside. I currently have a small position and will be adding under $.30 until I see something that tells me this investment isn’t worth it. We have a potential to see a five-fold increase here over the medium term at this price. The next financial quarter by my calendar should be announcing results late march. Historically is has been earliest March 18 and latest April 1 for the last 5 years. We could see a jump in the price as early as this quarter but it may take a few more for the share price to really move we’ll see. I’d also like to point out the largest data set to prove product worthiness and reimbursement. This is all happening this year and enrollment will be updated a few times as we move into 2015. Nuo has about $20M cash as of last quarter so probably about $16M now with quarterly cash burn of $5M or so.
Nuo Therapeutics Inc NUOT:US (OTCQX) www.nuot.com/about/
Current catalysts for 2015
• Angel Royalties 6-8X what Nuo was doing by itself, short term will replace net margin 2015 end
• Aurix getting large CED reimbursement equating to 70% gross margin
• New focused sales team and company name
• On January 08, 2015 Nuo Therapeutics and Rohto Pharmaceutical Co. Signed an Exclusive Licensing and Distribution Agreement for Aurix in Japan
• The wound care market is $3.4 billion in sales, with a dramatic shift towards cheaper, easier to use, more effective products expected in 2015 thanks to a monumental CMS decision in November 2013. Aurix is a highly effective product with favorable economics to both payers and providers
• Aurix has fantastic efficacy and safety data aurixsystem.com/results/
• Four CED programs of over 1,000 patients enrolling next few quarters followed by data this year will be largest wound data set in the world to promote products and funding
• 1 Month away from next quarterly report
Press release January 8, 2015:
On January 08, 2015 Nuo Therapeutics and Rohto Pharmaceutical Co. Signed an Exclusive Licensing and Distribution Agreement for Aurix in Japan one of Japan's leading pharmaceutical, health and wellness companies. Under the terms of the agreement, Nuo will receive an upfront payment from Rohto in exchange for an exclusive license and the right to develop and commercialize Aurix in the Japanese market. The agreement also contemplates additional royalty payments based on the net sales of Aurix in Japan and an additional future cash payment in the event specific milestones are met. In turn, Nuo will pay a one-time fee to Millennia Holdings (Millennia) to terminate the September 2009 license and distribution agreement. Millennia has been instrumental in establishing the advanced wound care market in Japan, and will continue to work with Rohto to develop the market for Aurix. Further, Rohto has assumed all responsibility for securing the Marketing Authorization ("MA") from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare ("MHLW"), while Nuo will provide relevant product information, as well as clinical and other data to support Rohto's MA application.
"This agreement is a significant validation of Aurix from a leader in the Japanese healthcare market, and an important milestone as we expand the product's footprint outside of the United States," said Martin Rosendale, Chief Executive Officer of Nuo Therapeutics. "We are excited to work with the team at Rohto to support its regulatory initiatives, and to share in the longer-term commercial success of Aurix as it enters Japan."
Kunio Yamada, Chief Executive Officer of Rohto Pharmaceutical Co., added, "We are thrilled to partner with Nuo to bring The Aurix System to the Japanese market. The license is consistent with our strategy of evolving Rohto into an integrated health and beauty care company and expanding into more advanced areas of life sciences, including wound care and regenerative medicine. We believe that the potential for this product is substantial, and look forward to taking Aurix through the regulatory process with the MHLW."
The foregoing agreements contain other terms and provisions that are customary to agreements of this nature. For additional detail relating to the terms and provisions of such agreements please refer to the Company's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC in connection therewith.
As per Jason Napodano’s research:
“To value Nuo Therapeutics, we are doing a simple "sum-of-parts" valuation for the two drivers of the top-line: Aurix sales and Angel royalties. We believe Aurix is a $100 million product for Nuo. We believe Angel is a $75 million product for Arthrex, Inc., of which Nuo gets low-teens royalty. We apply no value for ongoing clinical programs with ALD-301 in peripheral arterial disease or ALD-351 in glioblastoma. Based on our sales forecasts, our NPV analysis pegs the valuation of Aurix at $1.05 per share. We think Angel is worth $0.35 per share. Summing these parts two parts together we believe Nuo Therapeutics shares are fairly-valued right now at $1.40 per share. We think 2015 will be the year Nuo Therapeutics shines.” bionapcfa.blogspot.ca/2014/11/2015-will-be-year-nuo-therapeutics.html
My valuation and plans:
After listening to the 30 minute call, going over the data, looking at the market potential I had several thoughts. Regardless if Jason is being conservative or liberal in his numbers we will see an increase in royalties from Angel as we move forward. I think the plan for Aurex is fair and extremely focused. The company is getting a lot of support through funding, new opportunities and partnerships are being formed and the product itself is as Jason said outstanding and economic if you will.
My point is we are near the bottom here and there really isn’t much room for downside. I currently have a small position and will be adding under $.30 until I see something that tells me this investment isn’t worth it. We have a potential to see a five-fold increase here over the medium term at this price. The next financial quarter by my calendar should be announcing results late march. Historically is has been earliest March 18 and latest April 1 for the last 5 years. We could see a jump in the price as early as this quarter but it may take a few more for the share price to really move we’ll see. I’d also like to point out the largest data set to prove product worthiness and reimbursement. This is all happening this year and enrollment will be updated a few times as we move into 2015. Nuo has about $20M cash as of last quarter so probably about $16M now with quarterly cash burn of $5M or so.
If your investing strategy is to never lose though this is probably not a good stock to be. Once again admiration to you for sticking it and hope this play out well for you! 