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Post by RLC on Feb 20, 2015 15:59:56 GMT
I wish I had posted this slightly earlier as the stock has been on a nice run over the last couple of weeks. I first became aware of this company watching the ARM Panel discussion (the one that included Tony Fiorino and Paul Wotton). Their CEO, Adam Gridley, caught my attention (he speaks at 8:50 and 27:20). Here are a few notes about the company: * IPO'd on NASDAQ on 12/3/2014 around $11/share (raised ~$70 million, so a decent amount of cash on the books) * Currently at ~$9.50/share representing a MC of ~$120 million * NeoCart is their lead therapy for the repair knee cartilage (and hopefully all cartilage eventually). It is currently being tested in a crucial Phase 3 study. It seems like this therapy has some pretty incredible potential (tons of applications when considering the elderly, athletes, etc.). * Took 15 years to develop endpoints (You can tell they feel they are very well prepared to succeed in clinical trials and commercialize this technology). * 20% through Phase 3 enrollment (245 patients total) * It seems that some of the big catalysts could be a ways off (i.e. they're anticipating filing for BLA H2 2017 and FDA approval in 2018) * Partnered with Intrexon in Oct 2014 ( Intrexon Website) * Raw material capabilities have been brought in-house (which should obviously boost profit margins) * Everything is in place, it all comes down to the Phase 3 clinical trial data * Company Presentation (January 2015)* 3-Month ChartI'll do a bit more digging and add to this, but these are the quick notes I took down a few weeks back and after seeing the PPS move like it has recently, I wanted to get this posted ASAP.
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Post by Yelk on Feb 20, 2015 16:12:47 GMT
I wish I had posted this slightly earlier as the stock has been on a nice run over the last couple of weeks. I first became aware of this company watching the ARM Panel discussion (the one that included Tony Fiorino and Paul Wotton). Their CEO, Adam Gridley, caught my attention (he speaks at 8:50 and 27:20). Here are a few notes about the company: * IPO'd on NASDAQ on 12/3/2014 around $11/share (raised ~$70 million, so a decent amount of cash on the books) * Currently at ~$9.50/share representing a MC of ~$120 million * NeoCart is their lead therapy for the repair knee cartilage (and hopefully all cartilage eventually). It is currently being tested in a crucial Phase 3 study. It seems like this therapy has some pretty incredible potential (tons of applications when considering the elderly, athletes, etc.). * Took 15 years to develop endpoints (You can tell they feel they are very well prepared to succeed in clinical trials and commercialize this technology). * 20% through Phase 3 enrollment (245 patients total) * It seems that some of the big catalysts could be a ways off (i.e. they're anticipating filing for BLA H2 2017 and FDA approval in 2018) * Partnered with Intrexon in Oct 2014 ( Intrexon Website) * Raw material capabilities have been brought in-house (which should obviously boost profit margins) * Everything is in place, it all comes down to the Phase 3 clinical trial data * Company Presentation (January 2015)* 3-Month ChartI'll do a bit more digging and add to this, but these are the quick notes I took down a few weeks back and after seeing the PPS move like it has recently, I wanted to get this posted ASAP. Thanks RLC. Having a total tear in my ACL currently from skiing and awaiting surgery I can appreciate the value of knee fixes and commercialization potential. We should really have a discussion on how SP will flow though over this period. Do we know what the market potential is? I only had 5 min this morning leaving for work. I'll take a closer look later. I guess my thoughts are will SP be lower or high 6 months from now before 2016 catalysts - something will have to see why 5 minutes won't cut that
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Post by Yelk on Mar 9, 2015 0:38:42 GMT
K, so my interest in this one was perked after my sisters good friend got a very bad cartilage injury. Why not kill 2 birds with one stone and do both My first looks: -What near term catalysts will drive price to 2017? It seems we have a long wait before catalysts. -What is the market valuation of such a product? How will the market cap respond as we near final data release? -Special protocol with FDA? What exactly is it? I went through the FDA guidance for it but need to dig more. I'm willing to give this company a shot and enter and monitor the trend (wish I got in when you made the post RLC I just wasn't fond of the huge PPS). I'll be looking for proof of continued climb this next week.
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Post by Yelk on Mar 9, 2015 0:45:51 GMT
I'm actually very impressed with this presentation and the science has my interest perked being an athlete and suffering a major knee injury. Thanks RLC, mind me asking if you have a position?Very impressive insider buys.
I'm curious though we will be burning through cash over the next 2 years with not many news updates from what I can see. While I see this as a great investment I don't see how the is the ideal start point unless I'm missing market potential/sound P2 data.
It appears further research shows 2016 they will need to get more funding. Honestly the only thing I see to drive this stock is hype and small float of 4Mish. I can see it coming however I can also see major volatility with such a small float. Should be interesting to see how this play pans out.
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Post by RLC on Mar 9, 2015 2:10:20 GMT
No current position here Yelk. It's just one I added to my watch list and am going to consider putting money towards in the future. I would imagine one catalyst up to 2017 is going to be initial and interim data readouts on their Phase 3 trial. To be honest I've only done an hour or two of reading on this company. I'm intending on doing some serious DD on a few companies over the next few weeks (as I'm going to need a place to move all of my ATHX and CUR profits )... this will likely be one of those.
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Post by Yelk on Mar 9, 2015 2:34:11 GMT
No current position here Yelk. It's just one I added to my watch list and am going to consider putting money towards in the future. I would imagine one catalyst up to 2017 is going to be initial and interim data readouts on their Phase 3 trial. To be honest I've only done an hour or two of reading on this company. I'm intending on doing some serious DD on a few companies over the next few weeks (as I'm going to need a place to move all of my ATHX and CUR profits )... this will likely be one of those. Haha, I like your optimism. We will see about CUR. I'm 100% confident in the results and science. My worries - the market reaction and delay of news. We'll see how it plays out! I also have been looking. If you want a company to do DD check out Reservlogix <--my top pick for 2015. aside from this one of course to stay on topic!
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Post by RLC on Mar 9, 2015 2:54:05 GMT
No current position here Yelk. It's just one I added to my watch list and am going to consider putting money towards in the future. I would imagine one catalyst up to 2017 is going to be initial and interim data readouts on their Phase 3 trial. To be honest I've only done an hour or two of reading on this company. I'm intending on doing some serious DD on a few companies over the next few weeks (as I'm going to need a place to move all of my ATHX and CUR profits )... this will likely be one of those. Haha, I like your optimism. We will see about CUR. I'm 100% confident in the results and science. My worries - the market reaction and delay of news. We'll see how it plays out! I also have been looking. If you want a company to do DD check out Reservlogix <--my top pick for 2015. aside from this one of course to stay on topic! Hey if you're going to hold through a data release you have to be confident! Thanks for the suggestion on RVX. The first thing I'm noticing is that it's traded on the TSX, which I don't care for only because the broker I use doesn't support trades on the TSX. Regardless, I'm still going to look into them a bit.
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Post by Yelk on Mar 9, 2015 3:13:53 GMT
Haha, I like your optimism. We will see about CUR. I'm 100% confident in the results and science. My worries - the market reaction and delay of news. We'll see how it plays out! I also have been looking. If you want a company to do DD check out Reservlogix <--my top pick for 2015. aside from this one of course to stay on topic! Hey if you're going to hold through a data release you have to be confident! Thanks for the suggestion on RVX. The first thing I'm noticing is that it's traded on the TSX, which I don't care for only because the broker I use doesn't support trades on the TSX. Regardless, I'm still going to look into them a bit. RVXCF:US
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Post by RLC on Mar 9, 2015 15:28:02 GMT
Hey if you're going to hold through a data release you have to be confident! Thanks for the suggestion on RVX. The first thing I'm noticing is that it's traded on the TSX, which I don't care for only because the broker I use doesn't support trades on the TSX. Regardless, I'm still going to look into them a bit. RVXCF:US RVXCF unfortunately seems to trade awfully similar to NRIFF (maybe even worse). So to get the type of position I'd like to have here, it would probably take weeks or I'd be forced to pay a significant premium. It's up 22% right now, however there hasn't even been $12,000 that's traded hands through RVXCF...
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Post by Yelk on Mar 22, 2015 4:02:16 GMT
Might be interested in this dip, have been monitoring this in the distance.
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Post by Yelk on Apr 20, 2015 1:58:37 GMT
I'm considering starting to accumulate at this price of $8.33. I don't see this going much lower than $8. I think the action behind the share price is reasonable - IPO, plenty of cash bright future and oh... no catalysts lol. I need to do far more due diligence and don't have the equity with stocks being hit hard last few months but will try really hard to get DD on this dip and possibly start in. Will be a long hold but my thoughts are this off the radar and at $8 bucks that's a tiny market cap of 1.09 and if it goes under 8 sub $100mil
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Post by Yelk on Apr 20, 2015 2:01:44 GMT
I'm watching the webcast, didn't realize one came out only like 2 trading days ago.
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Post by Yelk on Apr 20, 2015 2:28:45 GMT
RLC, you still in this? I didn't realize the market potential we have here. Multi billion in U.S. alone and that's with patients opting out because current treatment doesn't do much. Plus it brings in a whole new set of buyers... With the new treatment he is describing in webcast this would be astounding. Pretty exciting and the science is amazing. It's almost like another NVIV. I'll see how much I can read into it tonight pretty long weekend with ATHX, Nuvo article, prepping for BCLI and this. Trying to get caught up on all stocks now that I'm working from home.
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Post by Yelk on Apr 20, 2015 4:04:04 GMT
A few days ago Zacks gave $17 target price 12 months and Cannacord Gen reiterated buy $16.50. I think it can go lower but $8 very attractive. I will have a FULL article out for this within 72 hours and will try to get it published on SA.
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Post by RLC on Apr 20, 2015 12:05:40 GMT
RLC, you still in this? I didn't realize the market potential we have here. Multi billion in U.S. alone and that's with patients opting out because current treatment doesn't do much. Plus it brings in a whole new set of buyers... With the new treatment he is describing in webcast this would be astounding. Pretty exciting and the science is amazing. It's almost like another NVIV. I'll see how much I can read into it tonight pretty long weekend with ATHX, Nuvo article, prepping for BCLI and this. Trying to get caught up on all stocks now that I'm working from home. Yelk, I've never had a position here. it's just one that I added to my watch list bc I felt it would eventually present itself as a great investment opportunity. Hopefully you can help me figure out when this time is
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Post by Yelk on Apr 21, 2015 2:40:05 GMT
I started a position here just over $8. Was too early as it dropped 5% down below into 7's after but I'm OK with that I hope it goes lower. I think $7 is the floor. Will look for more opportunities during the week. Current position 20%. Going to take my time getting a good average. RLC - I've have article out within next few days. Today was a bad day and didn't have the motivation For those interested in reading my article. From a VERY quick analysis. I've pegged potential share price post 2018 commercialization at: Summary HSGX develops an implantable tissue to produce regeneration of knee cartilage; primary product, NeoCart, is currently in Phase III clinical trials. We are optimistic on this IPO, given its impressive lineup of early investors, and having the spotlight as the only major IPO this week--along with tapping into a major market. Adequate Funding through mid 2017 to Phase 3 data and filing Set to be the new standard of care moving forward Robust manufacting plan Current market cap at $7's = $100 million 2018 the company will start full commercialization - read my article why they will be ready and why revenue will come in full instantly NeoCart is targeted to cost $15,000-$20,000/treatment, 70% margin, fits insurance perfectly 10's of millions of people require this surgery and because it is so much superior to current standard of care it will drive a whole new set of buyers (athletes, young people) or even people with pain in general that opt out from getting current prodecure The company and my search pegs annual revenue as multi billion in the U.S. aloneTrading at several times revenue we can see the stock price move from $8 - $100 to reflect only a $1 bill market cap which represents a 1,000%+ upside potentially unlimited as: 1. The company will be looking at all cartilage repair not just knee (pipeline) 2. Expanding right away outside the U.S. As a reminder the company is in phase 3 trials with excellent phase 2 data, with excellent endpoints, strong management and simple science. I believe the bar for chance of success is VERY high and they are moving ahead with plans to commercialize 3 years before they even have approval... talk about confidence? Also been talking with FDA closely. Also huge patient population 2-1 randomization. The company has well over $50 million cash right now so we are trading at half cash value, p3 trial, exceptional p2 data, multi billion dollar potential revenue and all ducks lined up like dominos and going sub $100 mill market cap. I believe this is soley due to long term away news of trial results (mid 2017) and recent IPO, nobody is aware. Multiple FI's have pegged 12 month value well over 100% upside and rated buy. I'm not going to lie, I have a knee injury myself which is prompting this research and this may be the highest potential stock with lowest value I've come across to date. I'm very excited to be investing sub $8 as I believe the risk reward is huge. There is no reason this won't go to $32 by data release day which would represent a strong return for multiple years and allow you to mitigate huge risk before potential huge results. IMO this is a pretty rare scenario and a long, long play. Risks = Financials, Long Time anything could happen, enrollment (will cover in article)
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Post by selluwud on Apr 21, 2015 13:16:58 GMT
I started a position here just over $8. Was too early as it dropped 5% down below into 7's after but I'm OK with that I hope it goes lower. I think $7 is the floor. Will look for more opportunities during the week. Current position 20%. Going to take my time getting a good average. RLC - I've have article out within next few days. Today was a bad day and didn't have the motivation For those interested in reading my article. From a VERY quick analysis. I've pegged potential share price post 2018 commercialization at: Summary HSGX develops an implantable tissue to produce regeneration of knee cartilage; primary product, NeoCart, is currently in Phase III clinical trials. We are optimistic on this IPO, given its impressive lineup of early investors, and having the spotlight as the only major IPO this week--along with tapping into a major market. Adequate Funding through mid 2017 to Phase 3 data and filing Set to be the new standard of care moving forward Robust manufacting plan Current market cap at $7's = $100 million 2018 the company will start full commercialization - read my article why they will be ready and why revenue will come in full instantly NeoCart is targeted to cost $15,000-$20,000/treatment, 70% margin, fits insurance perfectly 10's of millions of people require this surgery and because it is so much superior to current standard of care it will drive a whole new set of buyers (athletes, young people) or even people with pain in general that opt out from getting current prodecure The company and my search pegs annual revenue as multi billion in the U.S. aloneTrading at several times revenue we can see the stock price move from $8 - $100 to reflect only a $1 bill market cap which represents a 1,000%+ upside potentially unlimited as: 1. The company will be looking at all cartilage repair not just knee (pipeline) 2. Expanding right away outside the U.S. As a reminder the company is in phase 3 trials with excellent phase 2 data, with excellent endpoints, strong management and simple science. I believe the bar for chance of success is VERY high and they are moving ahead with plans to commercialize 3 years before they even have approval... talk about confidence? Also been talking with FDA closely. Also huge patient population 2-1 randomization. The company has well over $50 million cash right now so we are trading at half cash value, p3 trial, exceptional p2 data, multi billion dollar potential revenue and all ducks lined up like dominos and going sub $100 mill market cap. I believe this is soley due to long term away news of trial results (mid 2017) and recent IPO, nobody is aware. Multiple FI's have pegged 12 month value well over 100% upside and rated buy. I'm not going to lie, I have a knee injury myself which is prompting this research and this may be the highest potential stock with lowest value I've come across to date. I'm very excited to be investing sub $8 as I believe the risk reward is huge. There is no reason this won't go to $32 by data release day which would represent a strong return for multiple years and allow you to mitigate huge risk before potential huge results. IMO this is a pretty rare scenario and a long, long play. Risks = Financials, Long Time anything could happen, enrollment (will cover in article)
Thanks for your DD Yelk, I have been looking at this one as well and have had my price alert (<7.95) go off yesterday after the drop. I am looking to enter anytime now and hold for a while. **Edit** The only issue I have with this company is how thinly traded it is. Need more volume to trade effectively, but as a long term it has potential.
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Post by Yelk on Apr 24, 2015 15:02:24 GMT
Hope you guys added in the $7's. Already almost $9 today. I am expecting it to drop back down though - this thing is pretty thin and volatile. I'm only 40% position in case it went lower $7's or even $6's somehow - you never know with these markets so better safe than sorry as this is a very long play.
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Post by RLC on Apr 24, 2015 15:03:39 GMT
Hope you guys added in the $7's. Already almost $9 today. I am expecting it to drop back down though - this thing is pretty thin and volatile. I'm only 40% position in case it went lower $7's or even $6's somehow - you never know with these markets so better safe than sorry as this is a very long play. Got in here with a decent sized position at $7.70! Am already up nicely on this one! I agree about it coming back down. I'm looking to take some profits fairly soon and re-up if/when it retraces.
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Post by Yelk on Apr 24, 2015 15:19:23 GMT
Hope you guys added in the $7's. Already almost $9 today. I am expecting it to drop back down though - this thing is pretty thin and volatile. I'm only 40% position in case it went lower $7's or even $6's somehow - you never know with these markets so better safe than sorry as this is a very long play. Got in here with a decent sized position at $7.70! Am already up nicely on this one! I agree about it coming back down. I'm looking to take some profits fairly soon and re-up if/when it retraces. Really swings and run ups is how to get rich off this market but that is just boring and takes too much work lol.
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