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Post by actcfan on Mar 6, 2017 15:11:17 GMT
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Post by actcfan on Mar 20, 2017 15:40:19 GMT
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Post by selluwud on May 15, 2017 12:17:19 GMT
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Post by selluwud on May 24, 2017 14:59:34 GMT
Advaxis on the move today? What's up?
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Post by selluwud on May 30, 2017 12:28:46 GMT
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Post by selluwud on Jun 13, 2017 17:33:04 GMT
Going red with a higher than usual volume? short interest?
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Post by actcfan on Jun 14, 2017 17:51:38 GMT
Not sure what is going on here. The chart looks pretty ugly the last month but don't know of any negative news or dilution on the horizon.
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Post by selluwud on Jun 14, 2017 18:18:26 GMT
Not sure what is going on here. The chart looks pretty ugly the last month but don't know of any negative news or dilution on the horizon. One can only hope it's some kind of raid (and not bad news) to set up a lower entry point for a large purchase. It's about time for a reversal................anytime now would be good.
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Post by JHam on Jun 16, 2017 1:53:14 GMT
Not sure what is going on here. The chart looks pretty ugly the last month but don't know of any negative news or dilution on the horizon. One can only hope it's some kind of raid (and not bad news) to set up a lower entry point for a large purchase. It's about time for a reversal................anytime now would be good. Do you know if Sabby owns any ADXS?
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Post by jckrdu on Jun 16, 2017 14:54:49 GMT
Re-established a position in ADXS at $8ish. It's now pulled all the way back to levels prior to AMGEN deal. Still could pull back further as IMO there's risk in the IBB and overall market. Election results could tank the IBB and take ADXS and other bios with it. I'm in with half my target position at around $8, and plan to buy more if it continues to retrace. Thanks to Zach for the article. I think ADXS is trailing ADRO's market cap because they haven't signed a major licensing deal for one of their later stage assets. I think that changes sometime over the next 12 months. Remaining ADXS gaps: $7.57 - $7.70 $7.30-$7.37 $5.90-$6.11 Bumping this post from last October.
The last gap from $5.90 - $6.11 filled this morning.
I re-bought at $5.85.
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Post by RLC on Jun 16, 2017 15:42:00 GMT
Re-established a position in ADXS at $8ish. It's now pulled all the way back to levels prior to AMGEN deal. Still could pull back further as IMO there's risk in the IBB and overall market. Election results could tank the IBB and take ADXS and other bios with it. I'm in with half my target position at around $8, and plan to buy more if it continues to retrace. Thanks to Zach for the article. I think ADXS is trailing ADRO's market cap because they haven't signed a major licensing deal for one of their later stage assets. I think that changes sometime over the next 12 months. Remaining ADXS gaps: $7.57 - $7.70 $7.30-$7.37 $5.90-$6.11 Bumping this post from last October.
The last gap from $5.90 - $6.11 filled this morning.
I re-bought at $5.85.
Thanks for the info gapman! I grabbed some shares at $6.16 yesterday and just grabbed another chunk at $5.90. I'm really surprised this has moved this low...
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Post by jckrdu on Jun 16, 2017 16:47:41 GMT
Bumping this post from last October.
The last gap from $5.90 - $6.11 filled this morning.
I re-bought at $5.85.
Thanks for the info gapman! I grabbed some shares at $6.16 yesterday and just grabbed another chunk at $5.90. I'm really surprised this has moved this low...
Some thoughts...
Some pretty heavy volume on the move down over the past few days, so it seems that something is behind it; i.e. an institutional investor selling a good sized chunk of their position, or perhaps a capital raise coming and those in the know are selling in advance. It was pretty stable at $8ish for awhile, so if they did a 20% discounted raise from that level it'd still price the offering at $6.50ish.
I'm not sure an offering is coming. Could also be people selling after major new news wasn't announced at the recent "investor day", and the selling just drove more selling until that gap filled.
Will hold for a short-term turnaround, or for licensing/partnership news for European commercialization which is guided to have the plan coming by end of year.
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Post by jckrdu on Jul 1, 2017 14:17:44 GMT
Been adding here.
Guidance is that they plan to submit for approval in Europe for their lead program in the 4th Qtr 2017 (Oct/Nov/Dec).
In my opinion, they'll announce an EU distribution partnership with a big pharma prior to the submission. IMO, they'll need to work with an EU commercialization/distribution partner on the submission for 60-90 days prior to submission... so IMO the partnership announcement will happen sometime in the July/Aug/Sept timeframe. It's July next week.
ADXS has an approximate $250M market cap versus a $750M market cap for ADRO. If/when ADXS announces an EU partner, and then submits for approval in the EU, I think the ADXS market cap will start to close the gap with ADRO. If/when ADXS gets approved in the EU, no reason we shouldn't expect to see a $1B market cap for ADXS, which would be a $25 pps.
Immuno-oncology is still the hottest biotech sector. If ADXS gets approval in the EU in 2018 (expectation is that approval will come within 270 days after submission) an early buyout by big pharma wouldn't surprise me ...knowing ADXS will have revenue coming in the door.
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Post by jckrdu on Jul 14, 2017 1:55:01 GMT
ADXS - News out today (Thursday) on their lead program. Stock is starting to recover after CEO resignation. Speculation is that CEO was forced out by institutional investors that are underwater with their investment due to lack of monetization of the company's assets. Jury is still out on the reason why he left, IMO. My expectations (maybe a bit optimistic... maybe not) for major news and pps over the next 6-12 months is below: 1. European Partnership News (Any Day) - $10+ PPS 2. Submission to EU Seeking Approval for Lead Program - (Oct/Nov/Dec 2017) - $10-$20 PPS (Expect pps to rise on approval expectations.) 3. European Approval (1st Half/3rd QTR 2018) - $25+ PPS (Market Cap of $1B) - Market cap would only be slightly higher than ADRO. They also have interim Phase 2 data for the combo trial with Merck/Keytruda for prostate cancer coming in 2nd half of 2017, along with some other milestones... i.e. expected milestone cash payment from AMGEN, etc. In my opinion, ADXS is an attractive buyout candidate in the hot immune-oncology space with revenue likely coming in the not too distant future (if they get approved in Europe for cervical) and multiple trials either in or moving into Phase 3. They've already signed a $500M+ partnership with AMGEN for one of their earlier stage programs. AMGEN may be interested in more given what's happening in the immune-oncology sector. ir.advaxis.com/press-releases/detail/1278/advaxis-lead-immunotherapy-candidate-continues-to-build
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Post by omstem on Jul 14, 2017 5:58:37 GMT
Thank you JCK:
This is one stock on my radar. Dr. Hartman had published a nice article in SA.
For the old Ocata investors, we sure can remember the sane voice from Dr.Hartman.
I am going to get in. But not sure what will be the best price to get in (Perhaps no one knows it).
Array Biopharma (ARRY) is one stock I have gotten into more than a year ago. It was around $2.90. Not really a big position. But it was a great ride. I have recovered my investment and letting the house money+ more ride.
The common thing is the validation from big pharma.
I am hoping that this one will be like that too.
Good luck to all.
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Post by jckrdu on Jul 29, 2017 0:46:43 GMT
The below is from the June 13, 2017 PR. Looking forward to seeing the "comprehensive commercialization plan". Hoping that plan is made public with an announcement of an EU partner. Bolding is mine... "As part of the company’s overall strategy for the EU, Advaxis is working on a comprehensive commercialization plan that will minimize up-front costs and maximize value to shareholders. “With a significant unmet need for cervical cancer, low vaccination and screening rates and limited and toxic treatment options, a therapy with the potential of axalimogene filolisbac is gaining strong support from the European medical community,” said Chris Duke, Advaxis Chief Operating Officer." ir.advaxis.com/press-releases/detail/1273/advaxis-details-registrational-trials-eu-regulatory-and Note: Still some risk of a dilutive offering before they commercialize, IMO... but I like the risk/reward.
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Post by jckrdu on Aug 1, 2017 13:54:48 GMT
Last gap in ADXS chart from $6.30 - $6.34 just filled.
Added more at $6.30.
Could still head lower depending on direction of XBI.
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 4, 2017 19:14:16 GMT
Still accumulating ADXS. Current thoughts are below. Good luck all...
ADXS - Hopefully, ADXS found a floor at $6ish and will continue moving higher. I added more last week. Still expecting news of an EU partnership sometime over the next 1-2 months. The entire biotech market (especially the immuno-oncology sector where ADXS lives) got a big boost last week after Gilead (a big pharma) bought Kite (a relatively small biotech in the cancer immunotherapy sector) for $12 billion. The acquisition by Gilead was done in advance of Kite's expected approval next year for their CAR-T immunotherapy. It was good to see big pharma opening their wallet to buy Kite, and is likely a sign of more merger & acquisition (M&A) activity ahead in the biotech sector... especially for companies in the immuno-oncology sector. Does this mean I think ADXS will get acquired anytime soon? No, but it wouldn't surprise me, especially with the ADXS CEO recently being forced out and Lombardo being hired as Interim-CEO from The Channel Group where he was essentially an M&A deal-maker. The more likely near-term outcome is a partnership/licensing deal focused on European distribution, which will hopefully come with some upfront cash. (Note: Still some risk of a dilutive capital raise as well as ADXS has less than 1 year of cash and needs a cash influx soon.) The other CAR-T biotechs (Juno & Bluebird in particular) got a nice bump last week on the Kite acquisition news, as they may be the next to be acquired. The problem with CAR-T therapies, however, is the treatment cost of close to $500K. As promising as CAR-T therapies are for generating results (albeit with some side-effects), the cost may prove to be too prohibitive (in my opinion) for them to garner significant market share after they commercialize (i.e. do some research on what happened to DNDN after they got FDA approval). ADXS, on the other-hand, will have a much lower cost (most likely under $100K per patient) without the side-effects that come with all the CAR-T therapies, and in my opinion positions ADXS well for longer-term success. ADXS already signed a $500M partnership/licensing deal with Amgen (a big pharma) for one of their programs. With ADXS continuing to guide that they'll be submitting the application for EU approval in the 4th QTR 2017, it'll be interesting to see how the market reacts after the submission is PR'd, with a good chance of EU approval coming 270 days later. ADXS would not apply for EU approval if they weren't very confident the regulators will approve. In the same way Kite was acquired after they submitted for approval but before approval, will ADXS get acquired after they submit for approval sometime before 12/31/2017, but before approval? In the hot immuno-oncology sector, it's possible... so is a partnership with a pile of upfront cash for European rights... and so is dilution with a "Hybrid" licensing/partnership deal that was discussed at the recent "Investor's Day" event, where minimal/no upfront cash may be brought in for EU partnership rights.
As all of this plays-out, here's what I'm looking for in the near-term:
1) News of interim Phase 1/2 results this week for prostate trial with Merck (Sept 6thish) - "Phase A" Mono-therapy data only will be released this week. "Phase B" combo-data with Keytruda is guided to be announced sometime later in 2017.
2) News about approval of Aratana's (NASDAQ symbol is PETX) approval for canine osteosarcoma; PETX licensed the technology from ADXS years ago. PETX submitted to the USDA for approval 90 days ago and expects approval/conditional approval any day. While I don't think this will have a huge impact on ADXS, it'll help as ADXS will generate some recurring revenue once approved (slow ramp-up is likely) but the news will serve to help validate ADXS' platform, as the canine osteosarcoma approval uses the same construct ADXS is using in its active trial to treat breast cancer in humans.
3) Start of trial with Amgen (ADXS-NEO), which will trigger a milestone cash payment (unknown amount) to ADXS.
4) Licensing/Partnership deal with non-dilutive cash - If ADXS elects to pursue the "Hybrid" approach to move forward in the EU (where upfront cash will likely be minimal or absent), I believe they'll be looking to partner at least 1 of their other programs to generate some amount of non-dilutive capital.
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Post by harleyquinn on Sept 12, 2017 14:29:39 GMT
Still accumulating ADXS. Current thoughts are below. Good luck all... ADXS - Hopefully, ADXS found a floor at $6ish and will continue moving higher. I added more last week. Still expecting news of an EU partnership sometime over the next 1-2 months. The entire biotech market (especially the immuno-oncology sector where ADXS lives) got a big boost last week after Gilead (a big pharma) bought Kite (a relatively small biotech in the cancer immunotherapy sector) for $12 billion. The acquisition by Gilead was done in advance of Kite's expected approval next year for their CAR-T immunotherapy. It was good to see big pharma opening their wallet to buy Kite, and is likely a sign of more merger & acquisition (M&A) activity ahead in the biotech sector... especially for companies in the immuno-oncology sector. Does this mean I think ADXS will get acquired anytime soon? No, but it wouldn't surprise me, especially with the ADXS CEO recently being forced out and Lombardo being hired as Interim-CEO from The Channel Group where he was essentially an M&A deal-maker. The more likely near-term outcome is a partnership/licensing deal focused on European distribution, which will hopefully come with some upfront cash. (Note: Still some risk of a dilutive capital raise as well as ADXS has less than 1 year of cash and needs a cash influx soon.) The other CAR-T biotechs (Juno & Bluebird in particular) got a nice bump last week on the Kite acquisition news, as they may be the next to be acquired. The problem with CAR-T therapies, however, is the treatment cost of close to $500K. As promising as CAR-T therapies are for generating results (albeit with some side-effects), the cost may prove to be too prohibitive (in my opinion) for them to garner significant market share after they commercialize (i.e. do some research on what happened to DNDN after they got FDA approval). ADXS, on the other-hand, will have a much lower cost (most likely under $100K per patient) without the side-effects that come with all the CAR-T therapies, and in my opinion positions ADXS well for longer-term success. ADXS already signed a $500M partnership/licensing deal with Amgen (a big pharma) for one of their programs. With ADXS continuing to guide that they'll be submitting the application for EU approval in the 4th QTR 2017, it'll be interesting to see how the market reacts after the submission is PR'd, with a good chance of EU approval coming 270 days later. ADXS would not apply for EU approval if they weren't very confident the regulators will approve. In the same way Kite was acquired after they submitted for approval but before approval, will ADXS get acquired after they submit for approval sometime before 12/31/2017, but before approval? In the hot immuno-oncology sector, it's possible... so is a partnership with a pile of upfront cash for European rights... and so is dilution with a "Hybrid" licensing/partnership deal that was discussed at the recent "Investor's Day" event, where minimal/no upfront cash may be brought in for EU partnership rights. As all of this plays-out, here's what I'm looking for in the near-term: 1) News of interim Phase 1/2 results this week for prostate trial with Merck (Sept 6thish) - "Phase A" Mono-therapy data only will be released this week. "Phase B" combo-data with Keytruda is guided to be announced sometime later in 2017. 2) News about approval of Aratana's (NASDAQ symbol is PETX) approval for canine osteosarcoma; PETX licensed the technology from ADXS years ago. PETX submitted to the USDA for approval 90 days ago and expects approval/conditional approval any day. While I don't think this will have a huge impact on ADXS, it'll help as ADXS will generate some recurring revenue once approved (slow ramp-up is likely) but the news will serve to help validate ADXS' platform, as the canine osteosarcoma approval uses the same construct ADXS is using in its active trial to treat breast cancer in humans. 3) Start of trial with Amgen (ADXS-NEO), which will trigger a milestone cash payment (unknown amount) to ADXS. 4) Licensing/Partnership deal with non-dilutive cash - If ADXS elects to pursue the "Hybrid" approach to move forward in the EU (where upfront cash will likely be minimal or absent), I believe they'll be looking to partner at least 1 of their other programs to generate some amount of non-dilutive capital. What do you think of today's sell-off Jck? Reaction to burn rate? Overreaction?
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Post by actcfan on Sept 12, 2017 19:00:03 GMT
I know you asked jck but I am not really seeing anything concerning in the PR. Is the ADXS-HER2 being shelved a big deal?
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