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Post by jckrdu on Sept 14, 2017 11:32:40 GMT
I know you asked jck but I am not really seeing anything concerning in the PR. Is the ADXS-HER2 being shelved a big deal? No major concerns in the PR. Yeah, cash burn a little high but Lombardo is addressing that by cutting funding for HER2. Other negatives were several programs pushed from 2nd half 2017 guidance to 2018. That was enough to drive the price down. Almost 10M shares short in ADXS. Hopefully this was the news they were waiting on so they can start covering.
On HER2 - In the IHUB board, a few posters contacted IR and the response was, paraphrasing "The initial HER2 data met the safety endpoints which is what it was designed to do. We haven't even looked at the early efficacy data yet. HER2 may be licensed out... we're just not going to spend more internal funds on it at this time". So, HER2 didn't fail.
Looking ahead - I'm expecting some type of licensing deal before the end of 2017 to bolster the cash position, most likely for HOT or AXAL for rights for the EU market. That news, in combination with the EU submission, should fuel a recovery as the cash concerns get addressed and the market starts looking ahead to EU approval.
I've been averaging down.
Risk of more dilution is still out there.
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Post by actcfan on Sept 26, 2017 14:20:37 GMT
Any floor in sight here? Negative momentum..
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Post by lcd on Sept 26, 2017 14:28:20 GMT
Any floor in sight here? Negative momentum.. I was just wondering the same. I briefly owned this stock when it was below $3 in 2014 and kicked myself when it was 10x that price less than two years later, but how many days in a row can this continue with huge price drops? I read that they have $80 million in cash and their cap is now just over 2x that value for a company with a promising immunotherapy treatment.
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Post by actcfan on Sept 26, 2017 15:11:45 GMT
I haven't sen any changes with the science? They have great partners as well. Hard to catch a falling knife though.
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Post by omstem on Sept 26, 2017 16:11:56 GMT
I have initiated my first position at 4:50. Planning to add more if goes below 3.75. Except delay, I do not see anything wrong with their science. Perhaps it is people moving dead money to more active stocks.
Good luck to all.
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 27, 2017 17:54:08 GMT
Added a little more this morning as well after I saw it start to rebound. Hopefully $3.90 was the bottom.
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Post by lcd on Sept 27, 2017 19:32:10 GMT
Nice job jckrdu. I almost hit the buy button at $3.91 which would have been as close as I have ever gotten to a bottom purchase, but I hesitated and am kicking myself now. This one definitely appears to have been oversold.
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Post by actcfan on Sept 27, 2017 20:12:52 GMT
Added a little more this morning as well after I saw it start to rebound. Hopefully $3.90 was the bottom. I bought a little yesterday, interested to see where this goes.
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 27, 2017 20:33:49 GMT
Nice job jckrdu. I almost hit the buy button at $3.91 which would have been as close as I have ever gotten to a bottom purchase, but I hesitated and am kicking myself now. This one definitely appears to have been oversold. Yeah, I didn't buy at the very bottom either. Bought at $4.25ish as I wanted to see an uptrend on some volume first.
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Post by lovie350z on Sept 27, 2017 20:37:07 GMT
Same here fellas, averaged in at $4.61. Bought some yesterday around 4.
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Post by jckrdu on Oct 10, 2017 15:24:06 GMT
The tail end of the 3-month chart still shows a recovery in process. Today's low of $4.37 was a "higher low" when looking at the end of the 3-month chart.
Need to see more buying/volume/consolidation to keep the recent uptrend intact.
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Post by lcd on Oct 13, 2017 19:02:23 GMT
The pps is back under $4 again so I made a small purchase. It looks like Adage sold 600k shares so that definitely impacted the pps but not sure if there is anything else pushing it down.
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Post by lcd on Oct 24, 2017 14:10:47 GMT
Down below $3.20 now?! With $80 million in cash, their market cap is about $130 million. I thought I got a deal around $3.90 but this thing has no bottom.
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Post by JHam on Oct 24, 2017 16:57:59 GMT
Down below $3.20 now?! With $80 million in cash, their market cap is about $130 million. I thought I got a deal around $3.90 but this thing has no bottom. Any particular reason for the downspin?
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Post by lovie350z on Oct 24, 2017 17:06:48 GMT
Not sure Jham, seems one of the funds (Adage) is still selling. Possible news? It would suck to raise cash down here.
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Post by lcd on Oct 24, 2017 17:34:37 GMT
I don't think they need cash and I don't see how bad trial results could leak so the drop is confusing me, but a lot of shares have changed hands as the pps plummets.
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Post by JHam on Oct 24, 2017 17:44:42 GMT
I don't think they need cash and I don't see how bad trial results could leak so the drop is confusing me, but a lot of shares have changed hands as the pps plummets. Chances are then, that someone, for whatever reason, is slowly divesting their position.
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Post by RLC on Oct 25, 2017 3:06:09 GMT
Down below $3.20 now?! With $80 million in cash, their market cap is about $130 million. I thought I got a deal around $3.90 but this thing has no bottom. Ya this one has once again taught me that when you think a stock can't go any lower... it definitely can. I felt that way about ONCS at $4.20 which was my first purchase (of the core position I still maintain... I've been in and out of this one a few times prior). This was like $0.20 pre R/S and felt to me like there was no way it could go lower. You all know the story there... I'm really scratching my head on ADXS. Company has been completely silent. It's almost as if the new CEO couldn't get a decent BO offer and they're setting prior investors up with cheap shares before a lackluster deal is announced. This is obviously complete, likely inaccurate speculation but my head has definitely started to wander on this company....
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Post by stargazer on Oct 25, 2017 3:23:30 GMT
Re-established a position in ADXS at $8ish. It's now pulled all the way back to levels prior to AMGEN deal. Still could pull back further as IMO there's risk in the IBB and overall market. Election results could tank the IBB and take ADXS and other bios with it. I'm in with half my target position at around $8, and plan to buy more if it continues to retrace. Thanks to Zach for the article. I think ADXS is trailing ADRO's market cap because they haven't signed a major licensing deal for one of their later stage assets. I think that changes sometime over the next 12 months. Remaining ADXS gaps: $7.57 - $7.70 $7.30-$7.37 $5.90-$6.11 All gaps filled (and more!) in the current price meltdown
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Post by jckrdu on Oct 26, 2017 14:52:09 GMT
In the absence of news, ADXS will most likely trade with the biotech sector/XBI.
The 5-day XBI chart tells the short-term story. Strong downtrend with periodic recoveries, only to then make new lows. XBI needs to push back up over 83 with some volume, before I'll begin to start thinking that perhaps the bottom is in.
I added more at $3.18 a few days ago. Plan to add more if the XBI/IBB continue to move lower and ADXS hits $2.75ish.
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