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Post by JHam on Mar 13, 2015 21:43:59 GMT
Sorry for the lame title, but it was the first thing that came to me. The main idea of this thread is so that we can talk about any stock we want without coming across as soliciting a particular stock in an unrelated forum. For example talking about why someone likes ATHX more than BCLI in the BCLI forum. But this will be a no-off-topic thread. Meaning you can talk about whatever you want and it will not be off-topic. Have fun!
Edit: One thing about this thread though. If you want to start a long discussion about a stock you like, please create a new thread for that particular stock in the appropriate forum. You can even "solicit" that stock here by posting a link to that stocks forum/thread. This thread is meant to compare and contrast different stocks and solicit other stocks. Not bring the discussion of a certain stock away from it's particular forum. Thanks!
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Post by JHam on Mar 13, 2015 21:55:29 GMT
I currently hold ATHX, TNXP, NRIFF, and ONCS.
I just started re-adding my ONCS position as it is hitting 3 year lows, yet nothing fundamentally has changed with the company. People are frustrated because they have delayed the start of 3 P2 trials from end of Q1 to Q2. Not such a big deal for me that the trials will start later than expected, however the lack of transparency and urgency to meet timelines does bug me. This one is kind of my high risk dreamer stock. If it is successful it could shake up the immuno/cancer therapy world. If they fail in these upcoming trials then it is ballgame over. Huge following, definite cult stock.
TNXP is the one I am really excited about. Very low float (16M shares) and is at bargain basement prices right now (although more so a month ago when i opened a position) after a trial initially failed sunk the stock. The trial was later deemed statistically significant by the FDA and then granted P3. They are about two launch two trials in Q2, one of which will have top-line data ready by Q4, and both represent massive markets. I still feel this one is super undervalued. It was trading at a $160M mc prior to the trial failing. Since then they have been approved to start P3, raised a ton of cash (almost $70M cash on hand) and have 2 more P2 trials in the pipeline.
I think many know about ATHX. P2 stroke data due in mid-April that if positive will be a huge deal in the sector. It doesn't get much more binary than this one though.
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Post by JHam on Mar 13, 2015 22:08:38 GMT
Continuing what I was mentioning the other day. My biggest strategy these days is buying stocks that are undervalued. All 4 of the stocks I mentioned above are very undervalued in my opinion. 3 of which had bad trial news which killed the stock, 2 remaining at those low levels despite the fact that the failed trails were actually not so bad after all. Those same two (NRIFF and TNXP) also have very strong cash positions (NRIFF even has more cash on hand than it's current market cap, go figure). So strong cash and currently undervalued are the things I am looking for, which is one of the reasons I stay away from OCAT. Their current cash situation is not good, and personally I feel that it is overvalued at $225M and not even one P2 trial underway.
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Post by forthefuture on Mar 13, 2015 22:25:01 GMT
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Post by JHam on Mar 13, 2015 22:37:34 GMT
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Post by sheikyabooty on Mar 14, 2015 1:16:04 GMT
Seems to me the only way to play these small cap bios is to get in and get out and don't start 'believing' in their story. As we have seen recently, they can all blow up in your face and hurt you, witness: CUR, NRIFF, ONCS, OCAT, ATHX (UC Trial), BCLI, CTIC, NBS, TNXP. Depending upon where you look in the charts you can also see examples of rapid rises for these stocks.
I know people focus on upcoming catalyst (principally study data read-outs). I'm just not convinced that these are the key things to obsess over, because you never quite know how the market is going to interpret them.
Often it is buy the rumor sell the news, other times it is up-up and away (ICPT, ADXS). Reading the message boards, people seem to be continually surprised by what happens to their big stock. It's clear that you can't use logic to handicap stocks, emotions seem to usually win over well thought out logical analysis of potential catalysts. I am currently in the middle of totally re-orienting my approach to the markets based on using chart patterns as the basis of putting a system together. As I get deeper into it I have been amazed at the number of breakouts and breakdowns that come out of identifiable chart patterns when you start looking for them. Interestingly, some small cap bios seem to conform better to chart patterns than others. OCAT for example, does not seem to be chart pattern friendly, perhaps because it has so many 'cult' followers. Others seem to correspond much closer to what chart pattern analysis predicts (e.g., ADXS, AMRN, ARQL)
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Post by iamwhatiam on Mar 14, 2015 2:11:20 GMT
Thanks Jham for opening the mish-mash board. I appreciate it.
Thanks for that reference Forthefuture. I'm actually somewhat familiar with Kite, and have been waiting for a pull back before dipping my toes in those waters. I didn't want to get in during the run-up not that long ago. However, it seems to be holding-up pretty well. What is interesting is that Kite's valuation of 2.64 billion, seems so out of whack compared to Ocata for example, when they are in similar positions clinically. I guess cancer immunotherapy is really hot at the moment with Juno and Blue all with huge valuations. When I see those kinds of valuations, I can imagine Ocata at a similar valuation because I think the market potential is proportional. However, Ocata is not well capitalized, and they are, so I wonder if $$ that's all that's holding Ocata's valuation back?
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Post by iamwhatiam on Mar 14, 2015 2:17:41 GMT
Thanks for this reference Jham. I will check it out.
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Post by JHam on Mar 14, 2015 5:54:09 GMT
Thanks for this reference Jham. I will check it out.
Incidentally, it doesn't mention "pivotal trial" in the 10-K link I sent, but as I mentioned the CEO said so the other day in his presentation.
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Post by JHam on Mar 14, 2015 6:27:06 GMT
Seems to me the only way to play these small cap bios is to get in and get out and don't start 'believing' in their story. As we have seen recently, they can all blow up in your face and hurt you, witness: CUR, NRIFF, ONCS, OCAT, ATHX (UC Trial), BCLI, CTIC, NBS, TNXP. Depending upon where you look in the charts you can also see examples of rapid rises for these stocks. I know people focus on upcoming catalyst (principally study data read-outs). I'm just not convinced that these are the key things to obsess over, because you never quite know how the market is going to interpret them. Often it is buy the rumor sell the news, other times it is up-up and away (ICPT, ADXS). Reading the message boards, people seem to be continually surprised by what happens to their big stock. It's clear that you can't use logic to handicap stocks, emotions seem to usually win over well thought out logical analysis of potential catalysts. I am currently in the middle of totally re-orienting my approach to the markets based on using chart patterns as the basis of putting a system together. As I get deeper into it I have been amazed at the number of breakouts and breakdowns that come out of identifiable chart patterns when you start looking for them. Interestingly, some small cap bios seem to conform better to chart patterns than others. OCAT for example, does not seem to be chart pattern friendly, perhaps because it has so many 'cult' followers. Others seem to correspond much closer to what chart pattern analysis predicts (e.g., ADXS, AMRN, ARQL) I largely agree with that. The worst thing that can happen is to get married to a biotech in P1. I think the most successful strategy is to get in and get out. Sure there are always exceptions, but I would say the rule far outweighs the exception in this case. I also very much agree that you never know how the market is going to interpret data read out events. In the case of cure, I think the verdict is still out on the data. They had a very good responder rate, but they didn't release the data on all 15 patients (only a comparison study on those who responded), so the market scoffed at it. BCLI had very good data for which it climbed extremely high prior to the release, but then tanked back down after. ADXS has an agreement with Merck, so perhaps that has helped boost the confidence of shareholders to keep buying. That is where I feel relatively comfortable holding ATHX right now through their upcoming data release. Assuming it is positive (which is a very big assumption of course) they have a nice pot of gold waiting for them on the other side. It may dump right after positive data is released, but as long as the Chugai partnership kicks into gear and they subsequently are approved to commercialize in the very near term in Japan, which is what is anticipated, then I have no problem holding for the long term. ATHX is one of the exceptions though for me. Of course if the data is bad, I am screwed (and so is the company for that matter). But yeah for sure the safest way to play these stocks imo, is to do what Sheff does, buy undervalued stocks that have an upcoming major catalyst and sell into the rally, not even being concerned about the outcome of that catalyst. And to not get too greedy doing it. He typically sells his large position for a 10% profit, sometimes for 20%. Since I likely don't take as large positions as him, my target percentage is 40% cause I want to get a little more bang for my buck. But that also depends. Like right now with ATHX I am up 60%. Even if I weren't planning to hold most through that binary catalyst, I would continue to hold because we are still quite far away from the event occurring (i.e., I think there is more room to grow prior to the event). The key I think is to not get greedy and be happy locking in 20-40% profits. That is a great return on investment. The problem is, so many people get caught up in the dream and have their sights set on 10,000% gains that never happen, that they forget how great a 20-40% gain really is. I know some will say they are not good at trading and prefer to invest blah blah blah. It is not about trading at all, it is about risk management and preserving capital. Many people who say those kinds of things use that as a cop out because they simply do not know what they are doing and are hanging onto that dream, and usually get hammered in the process. Just go take a look at that ONCS Google Board. Wow, this turned out to be a longer post than I thought it would be. Sorry about that, stream of consciousness
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Post by selluwud on Mar 14, 2015 12:26:13 GMT
Seems to me the only way to play these small cap bios is to get in and get out and don't start 'believing' in their story. As we have seen recently, they can all blow up in your face and hurt you, witness: CUR, NRIFF, ONCS, OCAT, ATHX (UC Trial), BCLI, CTIC, NBS, TNXP. Depending upon where you look in the charts you can also see examples of rapid rises for these stocks. I know people focus on upcoming catalyst (principally study data read-outs). I'm just not convinced that these are the key things to obsess over, because you never quite know how the market is going to interpret them. Often it is buy the rumor sell the news, other times it is up-up and away (ICPT, ADXS). Reading the message boards, people seem to be continually surprised by what happens to their big stock. It's clear that you can't use logic to handicap stocks, emotions seem to usually win over well thought out logical analysis of potential catalysts. I am currently in the middle of totally re-orienting my approach to the markets based on using chart patterns as the basis of putting a system together. As I get deeper into it I have been amazed at the number of breakouts and breakdowns that come out of identifiable chart patterns when you start looking for them. Interestingly, some small cap bios seem to conform better to chart patterns than others. OCAT for example, does not seem to be chart pattern friendly, perhaps because it has so many 'cult' followers. Others seem to correspond much closer to what chart pattern analysis predicts (e.g., ADXS, AMRN, ARQL) Please share your analysis if you are so inclined, your re-defined approach to investing is truly the way to go. If you could write software to trade based on certain technical and fundamental data, then all emotion would be taken out of the equation and most likely more profitable than a hands on emotionally tinged method.
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Post by icellman on Mar 14, 2015 14:03:03 GMT
Jckrdu-
I don't mean to hijack this thread, but I know you've had or might still have a position in ADXS. I got in way back in late in 2008 along with ACTC. How do you see this stock neat and intermediate term? Like Jham pointed out in the above post, I apologize for being critical in my earlier postings. I was wrong and owe you an apology. Thanks so much.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 14, 2015 15:53:18 GMT
Jckrdu- I don't mean to hijack this thread, but I know you've had or might still have a position in ADXS. I got in way back in late in 2008 along with ACTC. How do you see this stock neat and intermediate term? Like Jham pointed out in the above post, I apologize for being critical in my earlier postings. I was wrong and owe you an apology. Thanks so much. Icellman - No worries. Let's move forward.
Below are my thoughts on ADXS which I posted on the ADXS "Continue the Discussion" thread on March 7th. Let's take further conversation on ADXS to the ADXS board.
As you read my comments, note that INO (another player in the cancer immunotherapy space) has a $425 million market cap... and until recently was valued much higher. They have some partnerships (other firms putting actual cash into them) that ADXS doesn't... but it shows that the market can value these promising immunotherapy companies higher. Also make sure you read Nature's response to my post, as he mentions a pending deal in Latin America that ADXS has alluded to and could be a near-term catalyst which I overlooked in my post below. _____________________________________
Hey Nature,
Glad to hear ADXS has worked out for you. Hearing its changed your financial life makes my day. I still follow ADXS, but not as closely. I almost bought back in with a position after that recent hatchet job article took it down to the $7s, as I figured there'd be a recovery. Some thoughts....
On ADXS - I agree with JHam that it certainly can run more, but at a $280 million market cap, I'm not sure how much more upside there is in the near-term. My sense is that results from the combination trials with Merck and Astra will need to be released and show positive efficacy before the market is going to assign a $500 million or $1B market cap. The low float and institutional interest are definitely working in ADXS favor, but that said another big move - in the nearterm - may not be in the cards. What else besides Phase 2-combo trial results could drive it higher in the near-term? Well, the licensing deal with Aratana may start bearing fruit (milestone payments & revenue) sometime this year... but the wildcard IMO is the possibility to commercialize in India with Biocon based on the Phase 2 results. I haven't seen any news on that front. IF ADXS announces that they're able to go to market in India without running a Phase 3 trial, that'd be a huge catalyst IMO. On the otherhand, if they announce that a Phase 3 trial is needed (ADXS would have to pay the costs of that trial) that could let a little air out of the balloon. I think ADXS is a good longterm hold, but like JHam... I see some other opportunities that I like better in the nearterm...
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Post by sheikyabooty on Mar 14, 2015 17:27:36 GMT
Seems to me the only way to play these small cap bios is to get in and get out and don't start 'believing' in their story. As we have seen recently, they can all blow up in your face and hurt you, witness: CUR, NRIFF, ONCS, OCAT, ATHX (UC Trial), BCLI, CTIC, NBS, TNXP. Depending upon where you look in the charts you can also see examples of rapid rises for these stocks. I know people focus on upcoming catalyst (principally study data read-outs). I'm just not convinced that these are the key things to obsess over, because you never quite know how the market is going to interpret them. Often it is buy the rumor sell the news, other times it is up-up and away (ICPT, ADXS). Reading the message boards, people seem to be continually surprised by what happens to their big stock. It's clear that you can't use logic to handicap stocks, emotions seem to usually win over well thought out logical analysis of potential catalysts. I am currently in the middle of totally re-orienting my approach to the markets based on using chart patterns as the basis of putting a system together. As I get deeper into it I have been amazed at the number of breakouts and breakdowns that come out of identifiable chart patterns when you start looking for them. Interestingly, some small cap bios seem to conform better to chart patterns than others. OCAT for example, does not seem to be chart pattern friendly, perhaps because it has so many 'cult' followers. Others seem to correspond much closer to what chart pattern analysis predicts (e.g., ADXS, AMRN, ARQL) I largely agree with that. The worst thing that can happen is to get married to a biotech in P1. I think the most successful strategy is to get in and get out. Sure there are always exceptions, but I would say the rule far outweighs the exception in this case. I also very much agree that you never know how the market is going to interpret data read out events. In the case of cure, I think the verdict is still out on the data. They had a very good responder rate, but they didn't release the data on all 15 patients (only a comparison study on those who responded), so the market scoffed at it. BCLI had very good data for which it climbed extremely high prior to the release, but then tanked back down after. ADXS has an agreement with Merck, so perhaps that has helped boost the confidence of shareholders to keep buying. That is where I feel relatively comfortable holding ATHX right now through their upcoming data release. Assuming it is positive (which is a very big assumption of course) they have a nice pot of gold waiting for them on the other side. It may dump right after positive data is released, but as long as the Chugai partnership kicks into gear and they subsequently are approved to commercialize in the very near term in Japan, which is what is anticipated, then I have no problem holding for the long term. ATHX is one of the exceptions though for me. Of course if the data is bad, I am screwed (and so is the company for that matter). But yeah for sure the safest way to play these stocks imo, is to do what Sheff does, buy undervalued stocks that have an upcoming major catalyst and sell into the rally, not even being concerned about the outcome of that catalyst. And to not get too greedy doing it. He typically sells his large position for a 10% profit, sometimes for 20%. Since I likely don't take as large positions as him, my target percentage is 40% cause I want to get a little more bang for my buck. But that also depends. Like right now with ATHX I am up 60%. Even if I weren't planning to hold most through that binary catalyst, I would continue to hold because we are still quite far away from the event occurring (i.e., I think there is more room to grow prior to the event). The key I think is to not get greedy and be happy locking in 20-40% profits. That is a great return on investment. The problem is, so many people get caught up in the dream and have their sights set on 10,000% gains that never happen, that they forget how great a 20-40% gain really is. I know some will say they are not good at trading and prefer to invest blah blah blah. It is not about trading at all, it is about risk management and preserving capital. Many people who say those kinds of things use that as a cop out because they simply do not know what they are doing and are hanging onto that dream, and usually get hammered in the process. Just go take a look at that ONCS Google Board. Wow, this turned out to be a longer post than I thought it would be. Sorry about that, stream of consciousness Great post JHam.
I agree that the key seems to be not to get too greedy and not to let your emotions take over but profit from the (predictable) emotional reactions of others. The way I'm thinking of doing this is through chart pattern recognition (using my wetware, my software programming abilities are not quite up to the task). I will show some examples of what I mean in my next post.
I think 20-40% returns over say 1-2 months is a fantastic rate of return. Getting out of a trade that is not evolving as expected is also a key point. I'm sure I'm not alone in having gotten into a stock with the intention of making a quick killing, only to see it not work out, telling myself it will turn around and then resigning myself to becoming a stuck long term investor (a believer LOL).
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Post by sheikyabooty on Mar 14, 2015 17:42:00 GMT
Seems to me the only way to play these small cap bios is to get in and get out and don't start 'believing' in their story. As we have seen recently, they can all blow up in your face and hurt you, witness: CUR, NRIFF, ONCS, OCAT, ATHX (UC Trial), BCLI, CTIC, NBS, TNXP. Depending upon where you look in the charts you can also see examples of rapid rises for these stocks. I know people focus on upcoming catalyst (principally study data read-outs). I'm just not convinced that these are the key things to obsess over, because you never quite know how the market is going to interpret them. Often it is buy the rumor sell the news, other times it is up-up and away (ICPT, ADXS). Reading the message boards, people seem to be continually surprised by what happens to their big stock. It's clear that you can't use logic to handicap stocks, emotions seem to usually win over well thought out logical analysis of potential catalysts. I am currently in the middle of totally re-orienting my approach to the markets based on using chart patterns as the basis of putting a system together. As I get deeper into it I have been amazed at the number of breakouts and breakdowns that come out of identifiable chart patterns when you start looking for them. Interestingly, some small cap bios seem to conform better to chart patterns than others. OCAT for example, does not seem to be chart pattern friendly, perhaps because it has so many 'cult' followers. Others seem to correspond much closer to what chart pattern analysis predicts (e.g., ADXS, AMRN, ARQL) Please share your analysis if you are so inclined, your re-defined approach to investing is truly the way to go. If you could write software to trade based on certain technical and fundamental data, then all emotion would be taken out of the equation and most likely more profitable than a hands on emotionally tinged method. I'm still in the middle of putting my system together, so things might change. Here is what I am currently thinking.
Have a population of about 40 small/mid cap bios in my chart watch list. Monitor them every night for emerging chart patterns (triangles, wedges, flags, pennants, double tops/bottoms, etc.). This is hard as it is always easier to see these things in retrospect, much harder to see them on the hard right edge of the screen. Wait for confirmation of a breakout from the emerging pattern and buy with a volatility (or pattern based) stop. Monitor the evolution of the trade, moving stops if it goes in my favor. Look for either candlestick or pattern based sell signals.
Using chart patterns gets away from the need to monitor every catalyst and cash position of a candidate stock. With 40 stocks that is a full time job. Using charts you can take advantage of others work by the price and volume action (the anticipation of the news is in the stock price). Here are some charts that I have been looking at this morning which have had great recent breakouts from chart triangles. I have marked the buy point on the breakout. ADXS
ARMN
ARQL
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Post by RLC on Mar 15, 2015 2:33:20 GMT
Below is a website that I recently stumbled upon that lists many upcoming catalysts for biotech stocks. I'm sure there are many out there that have already seen this, but I hadn't seen it until now and figured it could definitely be helpful for me in looking for some potential trades. Seemed fitting for JHams new thread with a super awesome name. BioPharmaCatalyst
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Post by iamwhatiam on Mar 16, 2015 13:47:45 GMT
Below is a website that I recently stumbled upon that lists many upcoming catalysts for biotech stocks. I'm sure there are many out there that have already seen this, but I hadn't seen it until now and figured it could definitely be helpful for me in looking for some potential trades. Seemed fitting for JHams new thread with a super awesome name. BioPharmaCatalystThanks for that link RLC, I was not aware of it, so it sure will save me some time.
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2015 14:04:18 GMT
Rough day for biotechs...
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Post by JHam on Mar 26, 2015 2:08:37 GMT
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Post by JHam on Mar 29, 2015 12:16:40 GMT
Here is a good panel discussion between 3 biotech analysts from the ARM 2013 Regenerative Medicine conference. This is a really good video and gives a lot of info on the biotech sector in general. Someone was saying in the OCAT forum the other day that guys like Jason Kolbert don't know as much as retail investors, lol ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FUmHXCNTJw
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