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Post by RLC on Mar 17, 2015 18:51:16 GMT
What's everyone's feel on when the data will be released? I'm of the opinion that we will see a PR with a summary of the data prior to them presenting at the ESO conference. Here was the quoted text from the CC regarding this:"It's fair to say there is a lot of focus on and interest in this study in the clinical stroke -- in the stroke clinical community and elsewhere. Due to the importance of this trial and what it could eventually mean for stroke care, the principal clinical investigator of the trial has been invited to present the topline results at a leading stroke conference in Europe in mid-April, which will take place April 17th to 19th.
We expect this to be the first presentation of the interim study results. And based on current plans, we expect to concurrently distribute a releases that summarizes the key results at that time. Both we and the principal investigator of the trial will remain blinded until shortly before the announcement of the results."The conference falls on a weekend, April 17th (Friday) to April 19th (Sunday). Based on the program for the event, I would imagine ATHX presents their data on the 18th during the section titled, "Genetics and Beyond- Clinical Impact of New Technologies." If the conference truly is the first time the public sees this data, April 20th (Monday) should be a very eventful day. Gil says that the data will be "presented" for the first time during the conference (this doesn't necessarily mean this will be the first time the data is visible to the public). He also says that the company and investigators will be blinded "until shortly before the announcement of results" (not "until shortly before the conference" or "until shortly before the presentation"). As of right now, I'm anticipating data being released the week leading up to the stroke conference (from the 13th to the 17th). Curious to hear what others are thinking in regards to this... |
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 17, 2015 19:02:52 GMT
What's everyone's feel on when the data will be released? I'm of the opinion that we will see a PR with a summary of the data prior to them presenting at the ESO conference. Here was the quoted text from the CC regarding this:"It's fair to say there is a lot of focus on and interest in this study in the clinical stroke -- in the stroke clinical community and elsewhere. Due to the importance of this trial and what it could eventually mean for stroke care, the principal clinical investigator of the trial has been invited to present the topline results at a leading stroke conference in Europe in mid-April, which will take place April 17th to 19th.
We expect this to be the first presentation of the interim study results. And based on current plans, we expect to concurrently distribute a releases that summarizes the key results at that time. Both we and the principal investigator of the trial will remain blinded until shortly before the announcement of the results."The conference falls on a weekend, April 17th (Friday) to April 19th (Sunday). Based on the program for the event, I would imagine ATHX presents their data on the 18th during the section titled, "Genetics and Beyond- Clinical Impact of New Technologies." If the conference truly is the first time the public sees this data, April 20th (Monday) should be a very eventful day. Gil says that the data will be "presented" for the first time during the conference (this doesn't necessarily mean this will be the first time the data is visible to the public). He also says that the company and investigators will be blinded "until shortly before the announcement of results" (not "until shortly before the conference" or "until shortly before the presentation"). As of right now, I'm anticipating data being released the week leading up to the stroke conference (from the 13th to the 17th). Curious to hear what others are thinking in regards to this...Agree with the bolded.
While I could see it going the other way - present data that weekend - and then a PR on Monday, 4/20... I'm leaning on Athersys notifying the world at the same time via a PR the week prior; 13th thru 17th.
If they do it the other way, people at the conference would be getting an early view of the results because its happening over the weekend, and may have an advantage pre-market on Monday, 4/20.
Just seems cleaner to me to PR the news the week before, and then present it at the conference.
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Post by JHam on Mar 17, 2015 19:11:52 GMT
I also believe they will release it the week before. My question is will it be earlier in the week or on Friday? My gut feel says that we will see it on either Thursday or Friday. Exciting stuff!!
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Post by Yelk on Mar 17, 2015 19:15:32 GMT
I'm scared  Like CUR this seems too good to be true - although the difference being my gut told me CUR wouldn't work out and my gut here tells me it will. I guess always follow your gut !! I agree with viewpoint that data before hand would be good. Gil will want to discuss it in a separate call before the conference IMO. He does like to talk, haha. |
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 17, 2015 19:20:33 GMT
I'm scared Like CUR this seems too good to be true - although the difference being my gut told me CUR wouldn't work out and my gut here tells me it will. I guess always follow your gut !! I agree with viewpoint that data before hand would be good. Gil will want to discuss it in a separate call before the conference IMO. He does like to talk, haha. No reason to be too scared at $3 and a $240 million market cap.
Be greedy at $3.
Maybe start being a little scared at $4+ prior to results.
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Post by sheikyabooty on Mar 17, 2015 20:08:53 GMT
I'm scared Like CUR this seems too good to be true - although the difference being my gut told me CUR wouldn't work out and my gut here tells me it will. I guess always follow your gut !! I agree with viewpoint that data before hand would be good. Gil will want to discuss it in a separate call before the conference IMO. He does like to talk, haha. No reason to be too scared at $3 and a $240 million market cap.
Be greedy at $3.
Maybe start being a little scared at $4+ prior to results.
Not to rain on the parade, but if it doesn't meet its endpoints and/or if the data presentation seems fishy (ala CUR) then $3 is cause to be scared IMO. The unknown is just when you will see the pr as they have a habit of floating them out there and catching people off guard. |
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 17, 2015 20:21:47 GMT
No reason to be too scared at $3 and a $240 million market cap.
Be greedy at $3.
Maybe start being a little scared at $4+ prior to results.
Not to rain on the parade, but if it doesn't meet its endpoints and/or if the data presentation seems fishy (ala CUR) then $3 is cause to be scared IMO. The unknown is just when you will see the pr as they have a habit of floating them out there and catching people off guard. If the data is poor / endpoints not met / no clear efficacy signal given, then it'll have a hard time holding $2.... I think everyone here knows that risk.
But for now - predata release - the risk/reward profile is still enticing at $3ish and a $240 million market cap, as any decent signs of efficacy released will have this moving to the $8 - $10 range fairly quickly. For that reason - while profit taking will be with us - the trend is still higher from here IMO in the near-term as some traders and institutions continue to buy in for that potential upside.
On the risk of early data being released - Last patient treated (per CEO) "a few days before Christmas". They need to wait until 90 days from there to do the last set of follow-up tests on that last treated patient (takes it to 3/23 or more likely 3/30) and then aggregate the data for at least 1-2 weeks. IMO, no risk of data being released until the second week of April at the earliest.
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Post by RLC on Mar 17, 2015 20:32:52 GMT
No reason to be too scared at $3 and a $240 million market cap.
Be greedy at $3.
Maybe start being a little scared at $4+ prior to results.
Not to rain on the parade, but if it doesn't meet its endpoints and/or if the data presentation seems fishy (ala CUR) then $3 is cause to be scared IMO. The unknown is just when you will see the pr as they have a habit of floating them out there and catching people off guard. Disagree Sheik. This is one of the few trials that I feel is not dependent on meeting clinical endpoints in regards to creating shareholder value because of what's been setup in Japan. All that needs to be seen is safety and PROBABLE efficacy in a human trial. This is their first chance to do this and I feel confident that will be seen in results. In comparing to CUR, there are a few other differences to point out: * Market size of the lead product candidate: Stroke is a monster indication (ALS is a horrible disease, but from an investors standpoint there seems to be far more money to be made with stroke treatment) * MC prior to data release: CUR had almost a $400 million MC prior to results being released. IMO, this is because expectations for NSI-566 data were off the charts. ATHX having under a $250 million MC with them targeting a disease that has far more profit potential doesn't put them in the same boat, especially considering Japan (and the Chugai partnership which should solidify this reality). All things considered, ATHX valuation is still very attractive IMO. |
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Post by sheikyabooty on Mar 17, 2015 20:41:26 GMT
Not to rain on the parade, but if it doesn't meet its endpoints and/or if the data presentation seems fishy (ala CUR) then $3 is cause to be scared IMO. The unknown is just when you will see the pr as they have a habit of floating them out there and catching people off guard. Disagree Sheik. This is one of the few trials that I feel is not dependent on meeting clinical endpoints in regards to creating shareholder value because of what's been setup in Japan. All that needs to be seen is safety and PROBABLE efficacy in a human trial. This is their first chance to do this and I feel confident that will be seen in results. In comparing to CUR, there are a few other differences to point out: * Market size of the lead product candidate: Stroke is a monster indication (ALS is a horrible disease, but from an investors standpoint there seems to be far more money to be made with stroke treatment) * MC prior to data release: CUR had almost a $400 million MC prior to results being released. IMO, this is because expectations for NSI-566 data were off the charts. ATHX having under a $250 million MC with them targeting a disease that has far more profit potential doesn't put them in the same boat, especially considering Japan (and the Chugai partnership which should solidify this reality). All things considered, ATHX valuation is still very attractive IMO. I'm not sure the market as a whole is nuanced enough to give ATHX a pass if the result is some signs of efficacy but not enough to declare success. The market seems quite brutal to biotechs that whiff on efficacy. It's going to be interesting whatever happens. I might put a couple of K on it into data just for giggles. |
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Post by RLC on Mar 17, 2015 20:50:52 GMT
Disagree Sheik. This is one of the few trials that I feel is not dependent on meeting clinical endpoints in regards to creating shareholder value because of what's been setup in Japan. All that needs to be seen is safety and PROBABLE efficacy in a human trial. This is their first chance to do this and I feel confident that will be seen in results. In comparing to CUR, there are a few other differences to point out: * Market size of the lead product candidate: Stroke is a monster indication (ALS is a horrible disease, but from an investors standpoint there seems to be far more money to be made with stroke treatment) * MC prior to data release: CUR had almost a $400 million MC prior to results being released. IMO, this is because expectations for NSI-566 data were off the charts. ATHX having under a $250 million MC with them targeting a disease that has far more profit potential doesn't put them in the same boat, especially considering Japan (and the Chugai partnership which should solidify this reality). All things considered, ATHX valuation is still very attractive IMO. . The market seems quite brutal to biotechs that whiff on efficacy. It's going to be interesting whatever happens. I might put a couple of K on it into data just for giggles. You could be right on the bolded above. However, I will say that there is typically a very strong correlation between the proximity to profit realization and the share price. It's clear that ATHX is passionate about moving forward in Japan and it's clear that this is the fastest way for them to commercialize MultiStem for treatment of stroke. I was a little nervous about putting too much faith in this, but the partnership with Chugai has given me great confidence in their intentions in Japan. Safety (which we should definitely see based on the past MultiStem trials) and PROBABLE efficacy are all that's needed to push them the closest they've been to profitability. If you do decide to play the data release, best of luck to you sir! I still feel there's some good money to be made between now and mid-April (prior to data release). |
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Post by stargazer on Mar 18, 2015 17:25:45 GMT
Jck:
If efficacy is shown in this presentation, does it need to show that the efficacy is "statistically significant" at this stage of the data presentation?
This has been my concern as the Street will slam it even if efficacy is demonstrated but the term "statistically signifcant" is missing.
Long since 2012! glta!
jck - as I dont post often, also taking this opportunity to thank you for keeping this community really well informed.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 18, 2015 17:35:51 GMT
Jck: If efficacy is shown in this presentation, does it need to show that the efficacy is "statistically significant" at this stage of the data presentation? This has been my concern as the Street will slam it even if efficacy is demonstrated but the term "statistically signifcant" is missing. Long since 2012! glta! jck - as I dont post often, also taking this opportunity to thank you for keeping this community really well informed. Hey Star,
I think it really depends on how much it runs up prior to results. I'd review my prior posts and the discussion on that topic.
If it stays at $3ish, I think any efficacy signal - statistically significant or not - will likely be taken well by the market given the implications of things moving forward in Japan. But, the higher it moves before data is released, the greater the risk IMO of it pulling back if a weak or inconclusive efficacy signal is reported.
And yes, even if we stay at $3ish and report some type of efficacy (not statistically significant) there's still a chance that the market reacts negatively (initially) for the reason you stated. If that happens, I'll be buying any dips because IMO any level of efficacy reported will translate into a $5ish pps (market cap of about $400 million) because ATHX will be moving forward with a pivotal stroke trial in Japan... totally funded by Chugai.
Thanks for the message Star,
jck
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Like CUR this seems too good to be true - although the difference being my gut told me CUR wouldn't work out and my gut here tells me it will. I guess always follow your gut !! I agree with viewpoint that data before hand would be good. Gil will want to discuss it in a separate call before the conference IMO. He does like to talk, haha. 
