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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 11:58:16 GMT
Our friend ecoethcon has turned me on to another interesting and potentially very rewarding company and sector. The "Space" space is really starting to heat up, and none more than ASTRA, which has many referring to it as the "Ford of Space". There is a lot to unpack, but in general, a bunch of companies who are focused on sending rockets into lower orbit to deliver satellites for tech companies. Of course there are the big players like Space Ex sending huge payloads into space. ASTRA is focused on smaller payloads while using smaller rockets that they can make at a very cheap cost. They also have portable launching pads and other technology that makes them unique in the space. Most of these companies are private and about to go public. ASTRA is private and is about to complete a merger with Holicity (HOL) which is a SPAC company (created for the sole purpose of facilitating a merger/reverse merger). HOL is run by billionaire Craig McGraw with Bill Gates also also owning a stake (they are partners). There is crazy potential here. The merger is supposed to be completed by Q2, but they already have over $1B in orders lined up and were awarded two contracts from NASA, beating out several competitors. You can currently only buy the stock through HOL, which will eventually become ASTR once the merger is complete. I have been buying common shares for the past few days, averaged at $13.85. It's now trading at $11.80, which is a bargain if you ask me. I have also been buying more in warrants (HOLUW) which are even a better bargain, trading now at $3.09. The strike price is $11.50 and there is a 5 year expiration. There is a lot more to write but I leave it at that for now. This recent Barrons' article gives a nice overview about the whole sector: www.barrons.com/articles/introducing-the-ford-fedex-and-microsoft-of-space-51616255953The Ford of Space Astra launches rockets into low Earth orbit. Investors can think of Astra a little like the Ford Motor Company (ticker: F) of a century ago. “You don’t need the equivalent of a Ferrari to carry a small payload to orbit, so we’re not building one,” explains the company in a news release. Astra makes simple, low cost, small rockets combining tenets of rocket engineering with the cost and assembly principles of automotive engineering.
Astra has had some early successes, reaching low Earth orbit in December. The company believes that more than 38,000 satellites will be launched into low Earth orbit over the next decade which translates in about $100 billion in launch revenue over that span. Astra, for its part, projects $1.5 billion in annual sales by 2025. By then the company plans to launch almost a rocket a day.
An Astra launch will cost roughly $5 million in 2025, an order of magnitude less than even a SpaceX launch. But SpaceX rockets are larger and more powerful, with more payload capacity. A first-generation Astra rocket can launch about 100 kilograms into space. A SpaceX Falcon 9 can carry about 20 tons into low Earth orbit.
The company is valued at about $3.2 billion based on the 261 million shares outstanding after the company completes its merger with the special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, Holicity (HOL).
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 12:02:11 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 25, 2021 12:20:20 GMT
Thanks for opening a thread. I bought a lot of warrants in HOL and VACQ. VACQ will become Rocket Lab, another space company, similar to ASTRA. Diversifying in these two is in my opinion the best way to have exposure to a potential hype of this sector.
Warrants of SPACS are usually trading at a discount, until the merger is completed, because you can't exercise them before. If you plan to hold the warrants definitely through the merger completion, it's a great opportunity to profit from a repricing of the warrants after merger completion and having cheap exposure in the long run. The longest dated call option for HOL is NOV 19 '21. $12.50 calls are trading at $3 +-. The warrants have a lower strike and much more time and are also trading in the same range!
I will also buy common stock, once the market calms down...
And both already have a business in place, posting revenues and so on. It's early, but not an obvious fake like NKLA and similar EV hype stocks, who had nothing!
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 25, 2021 12:38:51 GMT
ARK (Cathie Woods) will also start an ETF with Space stocks (ARKX) coming this year.
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 13:29:16 GMT
Thanks for opening a thread. I bought a lot of warrants in HOL and VACQ. VACQ will become Rocket Lab, another space company, similar to ASTRA. Diversifying in these two is in my opinion the best way to have exposure to a potential hype of this sector. Warrants of SPACS are usually trading at a discount, until the merger is completed, because you can't exercise them before. If you plan to hold the warrants definitely through the merger completion, it's a great opportunity to profit from a repricing of the warrants after merger completion and having cheap exposure in the long run. The longest dated call option for HOL is NOV 19 '21. $12.50 calls are trading at $3 +-. The warrants have a lower strike and much more time and are also trading in the same range! I will also buy common stock, once the market calms down... And both already have a business in place, posting revenues and so on. It's early, but not an obvious fake like NKLA and similar EV hype stocks, who had nothing! Thanks for mentioning VACQ. I am looking to buy this as well as soon as I can free up some cash elsewhere. I still lean more towards ASTRA for a long term return at this point, but I think both will carve out their own niche in the space. Good point on repricing of the warrants after the merger. I am definitely more interested in accumulating HOLUW now over common stock. For those curious about warrant/share ratios, it is all detailed here: fintel.io/doc/sec-hol-8k-holicity-inc-class-a-2021-february-02-18661
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 13:58:42 GMT
Thanks for opening a thread. I bought a lot of warrants in HOL and VACQ. VACQ will become Rocket Lab, another space company, similar to ASTRA. Diversifying in these two is in my opinion the best way to have exposure to a potential hype of this sector. Warrants of SPACS are usually trading at a discount, until the merger is completed, because you can't exercise them before. If you plan to hold the warrants definitely through the merger completion, it's a great opportunity to profit from a repricing of the warrants after merger completion and having cheap exposure in the long run. The longest dated call option for HOL is NOV 19 '21. $12.50 calls are trading at $3 +-. The warrants have a lower strike and much more time and are also trading in the same range! I will also buy common stock, once the market calms down... And both already have a business in place, posting revenues and so on. It's early, but not an obvious fake like NKLA and similar EV hype stocks, who had nothing! Stupid question for you as I am not very seasoned at buying warrants. Should I be treating the dip in HOLUW like dips in common shares? I know I can trade the warrants like stock, without ever even converting them, but should I be looking to buy them as low as possible? Will my warrant cost average matter once HOLUW becomes ASTRW?
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 25, 2021 14:31:39 GMT
Thanks for opening a thread. I bought a lot of warrants in HOL and VACQ. VACQ will become Rocket Lab, another space company, similar to ASTRA. Diversifying in these two is in my opinion the best way to have exposure to a potential hype of this sector. Warrants of SPACS are usually trading at a discount, until the merger is completed, because you can't exercise them before. If you plan to hold the warrants definitely through the merger completion, it's a great opportunity to profit from a repricing of the warrants after merger completion and having cheap exposure in the long run. The longest dated call option for HOL is NOV 19 '21. $12.50 calls are trading at $3 +-. The warrants have a lower strike and much more time and are also trading in the same range! I will also buy common stock, once the market calms down... And both already have a business in place, posting revenues and so on. It's early, but not an obvious fake like NKLA and similar EV hype stocks, who had nothing! Stupid question for you as I am not very seasoned at buying warrants. Should I be treating the dip in HOLUW like dips in common shares? I know I can trade the warrants like stock, without ever even converting them, but should I be looking to buy them as low as possible? Will my warrant cost average matter once HOLUW becomes ASTRW? Buying as low as possible is the best way:) Once ASTRA is going public, you have to add your average for the warrants on top of the strike, if you want to exercise. If you pay $2 for the $11.50 warrants, you have a break even at $13.50 for the common stock. If ASTRA trades at $20, you would make a profit of $6.50 per share with exercising the warrant.
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 14:45:41 GMT
Stupid question for you as I am not very seasoned at buying warrants. Should I be treating the dip in HOLUW like dips in common shares? I know I can trade the warrants like stock, without ever even converting them, but should I be looking to buy them as low as possible? Will my warrant cost average matter once HOLUW becomes ASTRW? Buying as low as possible is the best way:) Once ASTRA is going public, you have to add your average for the warrants on top of the strike, if you want to exercise. If you pay $2 for the $11.50 warrants, you have a break even at $13.50 for the common stock. If ASTRA trades at $20, you would make a profit of $6.50 per share with exercising the warrant. Got it. Thanks. That’s confusing...
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 14:46:48 GMT
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 14:49:40 GMT
Stupid question for you as I am not very seasoned at buying warrants. Should I be treating the dip in HOLUW like dips in common shares? I know I can trade the warrants like stock, without ever even converting them, but should I be looking to buy them as low as possible? Will my warrant cost average matter once HOLUW becomes ASTRW? Buying as low as possible is the best way:) Once ASTRA is going public, you have to add your average for the warrants on top of the strike, if you want to exercise. If you pay $2 for the $11.50 warrants, you have a break even at $13.50 for the common stock. If ASTRA trades at $20, you would make a profit of $6.50 per share with exercising the warrant. I’ve never bought warrants and am just used to seeing them attached to financing deals. Investor A gets 1M warrants at $5.50 with a $10 strike price (for example). Investor A either uses the warrants to buy shares, sells the warrants, or lets them expire. It’s very easy and straight forward. I’m not sure why it’s so complicated for me to understand this time, lol.
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 25, 2021 14:50:35 GMT
The nice thing about the warrants is, that you have less downside risk. When you have for example 1000 HOL shares and the stock goes to zero, you lose much less with 1000 warrants...
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 14:53:41 GMT
The nice thing about the warrants is, that you have less downside risk. When you have for example 1000 HOL shares and the stock goes to zero, you lose much less with 1000 warrants... Right. Unless you own 5x the amount of warrants than shares.
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 14:56:45 GMT
I know own a handful of VACQW as a hedge against ASTR. Although, as I mentioned above, I think there is plenty of room for both companies (and then some) to succeed.
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Post by JHam on Mar 25, 2021 15:47:38 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 25, 2021 22:02:17 GMT
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 25, 2021 22:21:58 GMT
Thanks for opening a thread. I bought a lot of warrants in HOL and VACQ. VACQ will become Rocket Lab, another space company, similar to ASTRA. Diversifying in these two is in my opinion the best way to have exposure to a potential hype of this sector. Warrants of SPACS are usually trading at a discount, until the merger is completed, because you can't exercise them before. If you plan to hold the warrants definitely through the merger completion, it's a great opportunity to profit from a repricing of the warrants after merger completion and having cheap exposure in the long run. The longest dated call option for HOL is NOV 19 '21. $12.50 calls are trading at $3 +-. The warrants have a lower strike and much more time and are also trading in the same range! I will also buy common stock, once the market calms down... And both already have a business in place, posting revenues and so on. It's early, but not an obvious fake like NKLA and similar EV hype stocks, who had nothing! Thanks for mentioning VACQ. I am looking to buy this as well as soon as I can free up some cash elsewhere. I still lean more towards ASTRA for a long term return at this point, but I think both will carve out their own niche in the space. Good point on repricing of the warrants after the merger. I am definitely more interested in accumulating HOLUW now over common stock. For those curious about warrant/share ratios, it is all detailed here: fintel.io/doc/sec-hol-8k-holicity-inc-class-a-2021-february-02-18661There will be a lot of competition and both companies could change a live... But if ASTRA gains 1.000% over the next years and VACQ 5.000%, I would be happy to own both. Or if one fails and you lose it all one, you've maybe made 5.000% on the other one. That is the reason why I own equal positions in both ASTRA and VACQ.
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Post by magnus123 on Mar 25, 2021 22:23:22 GMT
The nice thing about the warrants is, that you have less downside risk. When you have for example 1000 HOL shares and the stock goes to zero, you lose much less with 1000 warrants... Right. Unless you own 5x the amount of warrants than shares. Sure I'm not doing that, although I own now much more warrants in VACQ and HOL than I would buy in common stock. I'll take a look in other space stocks in the next days.
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Post by JHam on Mar 26, 2021 2:24:53 GMT
I was going to write a more detailed post about more of what ASTRA exactly does, but ecoethcon did it for me at ST 😅
“Not saying to buy ..your decision but before bashing at least learn the basics about the company.... then tell us what you think
Chris Kemp is the former CTO at NASA ...and to tell you what NASA thinks of him now they just awarded him 2 competitive bid contracts
He has assembled a team of software innovators from the top tech giants to take us from the current "mainframe" era to the future mobile hyperscale era/ This involves having disc shaped satellites which fit snugly into the rocket and for which you can just plug in peripherals like USN ports on computers. Everything is very small and they are aiming to be able to launch these satellite platforms at the rate of 1 per day in the coming yeas,
This is about sending small payloads into low earth orbit ...not what SpaceX is all about. Just listen to the investor presentation”
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Post by JHam on Mar 26, 2021 6:14:41 GMT
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Post by JHam on Mar 26, 2021 7:20:15 GMT
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