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Post by ignorantsilver on Aug 28, 2015 14:32:40 GMT
I'm tempted to turn around this short position, it seems ocat is always able to find a bunch of suckers to fuel their next rally.
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Post by JHam on Aug 28, 2015 14:41:34 GMT
I'm tempted to turn around this short position, it seems ocat is always able to find a bunch of suckers to fuel their next rally. Boy has your sentiment changed  |
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Post by actcfan on Aug 28, 2015 14:46:28 GMT
I'm tempted to turn around this short position, it seems ocat is always able to find a bunch of suckers to fuel their next rally. Boy has your sentiment changed Sadly I think he's just picking up the troll void left by hop. I'd be fine with the sentiments if they were based on something more than poking fun at the misery in other ppl Other posters seem to be able to talk about why it might go lower while adding salient points. |
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Post by ignorantsilver on Aug 28, 2015 15:00:15 GMT
b/c management are bunch of stinking thieves always lining their pockets at shareowner expense. longterm, yes this may be good, but i can't sit their continually reemed and naive to greedy execs. best to trade this thing up and down.
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Post by selluwud on Aug 28, 2015 15:09:41 GMT
I'm tempted to turn around this short position, it seems ocat is always able to find a bunch of suckers to fuel their next rally. Are you calling the bottom? |
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Post by tunis on Aug 28, 2015 15:11:13 GMT
So when the market dumps OCAT is seemed as safe haven?  |
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Post by JHam on Aug 28, 2015 15:18:33 GMT
Boy has your sentiment changed Sadly I think he's just picking up the troll void left by hop. I'd be fine with the sentiments if they were based on something more than poking fun at the misery in other ppl Other posters seem to be able to talk about why it might go lower while adding salient points. Completely agree. Just pointing out the marked change of someone who used to take issue with my "negative" posts. |
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Post by jckrdu on Aug 28, 2015 15:31:53 GMT
My thoughts after looking at OCAT's chart, fwiw...
I'm not seeing a retrace all the way to $3.15, at least not right now with many expecting Phase 2 news soon. The 3-month chart shows the big recent move from $3ish to $4.50ish. I've seen many other stocks pull back to the midpoint of a big move, which would mean OCAT could pull back to $3.75ish.... which is what we're seeing. Some late day signs today of $3.75ish holding, as we did get some volume at the close. (Look at 1-day chart).
Where do we go from here? Will $3.75ish hold? I'm not sure.
The downside - We consolidated at $3.70-$3.80 for several days before breaking out, so there is some support there... but I agree it doesn't look too strong. Many people bought in the low $3s so we could see some more profit taking from those up 20%. If $3.70 doesn't hold, somewhere in the $3.25 - $3.50 range looks like the near-term floor to me.
The upside - Prior consolidation at the current $3.75ish pps and some late volume into the close today makes the case for $3.70ish holding. PW guiding for Phase 2 to initiate within 30 days plus Lupus data on 9/4 should keep a damper on selling pressure, and is also likely to bring back some buyers... even though PW's credibility with guided milestones is lacking.
I lightened up after it went past my breakout target pps of $4.40. I'm looking to add, but want to see how it trades tomorrow (volume, direction, etc).
GL.
Added some at $3.55. Will wait to see if $3.50 holds before adding more. Added more at $3.62, hoping that that $3.50ish was the near term bottom and we trend higher from here on news, and expectation of news.
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Post by actcfan on Aug 28, 2015 16:02:14 GMT
b/c management are bunch of stinking thieves always lining their pockets at shareowner expense. longterm, yes this may be good, but i can't sit their continually reemed and naive to greedy execs. best to trade this thing up and down. nothing wrong with trading it, I think most here do. But your recent posts haven't been about trading it I don't think. It's fine to be fed up with mgmt, I think we have all been there.. |
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Post by CM kipper007 on Aug 28, 2015 18:42:38 GMT
Wasn't expecting that.
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Post by stemboat on Aug 28, 2015 18:53:14 GMT
If it closes green, today, some bodies want to be in this stock on MON before September brings a possible flurry of enticing news.
Pure speculation, but we could even have another NIH grant for platelets on MON.
Edit: Added more shares this week at 3.80.
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Post by ignorantsilver on Aug 28, 2015 19:44:53 GMT
I'm tempted to turn around this short position, it seems ocat is always able to find a bunch of suckers to fuel their next rally. Are you calling the bottom? Yes, called and hit the bottom. |
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Post by iamaverb on Aug 28, 2015 20:08:46 GMT
Boy has your sentiment changed Sadly I think he's just picking up the troll void left by hop. I'd be fine with the sentiments if they were based on something more than poking fun at the misery in other ppl Other posters seem to be able to talk about why it might go lower while adding salient points.
You may be expecting too much from a poster with such an expressive pseudonym.
Ok, I'll take that back  |
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Post by RLC on Aug 31, 2015 19:34:48 GMT
We continue to see OCAT buck the market trend. IBB down over 3%; OCAT up almost 10%!
I'm assuming/hoping this is due to increased institutional investment.
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Post by iamaverb on Aug 31, 2015 20:55:11 GMT
We continue to see OCAT buck the market trend. IBB down over 3%; OCAT up almost 10%! I'm assuming/hoping this is due to increased institutional investment ....or the filing of the necessary paperwork with clinicaltrials.gov. |
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 1, 2015 1:29:21 GMT
Added some at $3.55. Will wait to see if $3.50 holds before adding more. Added more at $3.62, hoping that that $3.50ish was the near term bottom and we trend higher from here on news, and expectation of news.
Nice move up today. The below is what I'm hoping for over the next several weeks...
9/4 Lupus data - Hoping the uptrend on expectations of news continues and we see the $4.50 - $5 range on this news.
9/30 Start of Phase 2 - Sometime before 9/30 we should see some news of Phase 2 initiating. I'm hoping we get back to $6ish on that news. Generally, starting trials doesn't do much for other biotechs, but because OCAT has been so sold off ($7ish to $3s) the start of Phase 2 could help fuel a recovery. Note there is a higher gap in the chart from $5.88 to $6.23. I'm hoping that gap fills on the Phase 2 initiating news.
Beyond that, I'm not sure... as we could see a "sell the news" effect occur depending on how high it rebounds.
Future near-term PPS direction from now until the end of 2015 may depend on the terms on the non-core JV, and whether or not the redefinition happens.
I'll be looking to take some off the table if we get all the way back to the $6-$7 range, which would be a $260M - $300M market cap. I think OCAT will need the redefinition or a solid non-core JV to get back to that level or higher (and hold it) before Phase 2 interim results are out.
GL all.
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Post by ignorantsilver on Sept 1, 2015 3:31:06 GMT
how much impact do you see spa having?
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Post by rickrick on Sept 1, 2015 8:09:49 GMT
Added more at $3.62, hoping that that $3.50ish was the near term bottom and we trend higher from here on news, and expectation of news.
Nice move up today. The below is what I'm hoping for over the next several weeks...
9/4 Lupus data - Hoping the uptrend on expectations of news continues and we see the $4.50 - $5 range on this news.
9/30 Start of Phase 2 - Sometime before 9/30 we should see some news of Phase 2 initiating. I'm hoping we get back to $6ish on that news. Generally, starting trials doesn't do much for other biotechs, but because OCAT has been so sold off ($7ish to $3s) the start of Phase 2 could help fuel a recovery. Note there is a higher gap in the chart from $5.88 to $6.23. I'm hoping that gap fills on the Phase 2 initiating news.
Beyond that, I'm not sure... as we could see a "sell the news" effect occur depending on how high it rebounds.
Future near-term PPS direction from now until the end of 2015 may depend on the terms on the non-core JV, and whether or not the redefinition happens.
I'll be looking to take some off the table if we get all the way back to the $6-$7 range, which would be a $260M - $300M market cap. I think OCAT will need the redefinition or a solid non-core JV to get back to that level or higher (and hold it) before Phase 2 interim results are out.
GL all.
The 4.50 range is what I'm looking at also and where I'll feel more comfortable getting back in. I agree with all your other ranges also. Good call on the 3.75 area |
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 1, 2015 9:55:26 GMT
how much impact do you see spa having? Good question as I've been struggling with that as well. My thoughts...
In general, I don't see news of the SPA for SMD in the US having any major and lasting impact on the pps. Why? PW is already on record saying that commercialization "as early as 2019" is possible, and that already assumes fast tracking in the EU to commercialize there by 2019. The SPA (if granted) will do the same in the US. In my opinion, the market has already factored in a possible launch in 2019, so doing the same in the US won't add a lot into the mix, especially because 2019 is still 3-4 years away. It's just too far out for the market to get very excited about today. (Another promising/undervalued company I'm invested in - CLBS - is in Phase 3 and they have fast track in the EU and a SPA in the US... market cap is less than $100 million.)
I do see the SPA having an initial positive impact on the pps, but I don't think any significant gains seen will hold for the reasons stated above.
Last thought - I think any spike we see from the SPA news will depend on when it hits. For example, if the SPA news hit this week while OCAT is still under $4.50, I think it has a good chance of generating a major spike back to $6ish. On the other hand, if the SPA news hits after 9/4 Lupus data and after Phase 2 initiation news when OCAT is - hopefully - trading back in the $5-$6 or $5-$7 range, I don't think the SPA news would take the pps significantly higher. Instead, maybe after a small initial pop, we'd see a "sell the news" effect as the market looks at OCAT's market cap and then looks past the initial news and comes to terms with 2019 still being a ways out.
I do think the SPA is very important to OCAT for longer term strategic reasons, as IMO it'll make landing a partner later in 2016 for the RPE program much easier to get done with better / more lucrative terms. I just don't see those longer term strategic benefits being reflected in the pps today.
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Post by RLC on Sept 1, 2015 12:03:31 GMT
Market's in the gutter again today so OCAT should have a great day |
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