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Post by jckrdu on Sept 9, 2015 18:35:01 GMT
Heading for the 4.47-4.51 gap from yesterday? Could be Sell. It may retrace and fill that gap if we don't see more news over the next several days.
3-month chart still looks good with general uptrend still intact and consolidation happening at $4.50ish. Need news (Lupus data, SPA, SMD start) to continue the uptrend.
Gap filled.
One more lower gap: $4.23 - $4.26
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Post by actcfan on Sept 10, 2015 1:55:08 GMT
I saw elsewhere that Invest attended the talk today and was able to record it. Sounds like it was promising and included the tufts dog data.
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Post by rickrick on Sept 10, 2015 13:44:02 GMT
I bought in at 4.5 the other day. I may buy more at the 4.23 gap jkd points out because the uptrend is still in tact with higher highs and higher lows since the 17th.
It really needs to break 5.25 to show some better strength.
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 10, 2015 14:58:48 GMT
I bought in at 4.5 the other day. I may buy more at the 4.23 gap jkd points out because the uptrend is still in tact with higher highs and higher lows since the 17th. It really needs to break 5.25 to show some better strength. Interesting that we touched the top end of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap, and then bounced hard off it.
Too early to say if that test of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap is all we'll see, and the gap will now remain unfilled.... as IMO we're only one bad day away in the market & IBB from a retest and filling the gap.
But, its certainly possible that the retest of the gap is what was needed, and with news pending (Lupus, SPA, SMD start) the uptrend continues.
GL all.
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Post by selluwud on Sept 10, 2015 17:04:09 GMT
We are gradually coming back up to where we didn't want to get down to....One step at a time. Albeit, 3 steps forward then 2 steps back. I really will be SS full retirement age when this company becomes profitable, and that's a good thing if the timing is right.
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Post by rickrick on Sept 10, 2015 20:10:24 GMT
I bought in at 4.5 the other day. I may buy more at the 4.23 gap jkd points out because the uptrend is still in tact with higher highs and higher lows since the 17th. It really needs to break 5.25 to show some better strength. Interesting that we touched the top end of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap, and then bounced hard off it.
Too early to say if that test of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap is all we'll see, and the gap will now remain unfilled.... as IMO we're only one bad day away in the market & IBB from a retest and filling the gap.
But, its certainly possible that the retest of the gap is what was needed, and with news pending (Lupus, SPA, SMD start) the uptrend continues.
GL all.
I agree. It's real touchy right now, the XBI and IBB are following the overall market where as Ocat is wandering off on it's own. I would like to see some confirmation tomorrow, so I may wind up waiting till monday to make a decision on buying more. |
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Post by johank on Sept 10, 2015 21:14:54 GMT
Who thinks Aronson is still in? We know he sold some shares since he received them, correct?
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Post by mmeyrow on Sept 11, 2015 12:39:00 GMT
We are gradually coming back up to where we didn't want to get down to....One step at a time. Albeit, 3 steps forward then 2 steps back. I really will be SS full retirement age when this company becomes profitable, and that's a good thing if the timing is right. I am 58 and I figure I will be able to collect on both OCAT and SS at 66 1/2 Selluwad |
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Post by selluwud on Sept 11, 2015 14:05:20 GMT
We are gradually coming back up to where we didn't want to get down to....One step at a time. Albeit, 3 steps forward then 2 steps back. I really will be SS full retirement age when this company becomes profitable, and that's a good thing if the timing is right. I am 58 and I figure I will be able to collect on both OCAT and SS at 66 1/2 Selluwad Hey Gumby, I am 63 but will most likely work until I'm 70 until my wife (now on my med insurance) is medicare eligible. Unless at age 66 (SS full retirement age) OCAT has had extraordinary returns, then I may contract out as a 1099'er and work at a slower pace. |
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 11, 2015 14:36:55 GMT
I bought in at 4.5 the other day. I may buy more at the 4.23 gap jkd points out because the uptrend is still in tact with higher highs and higher lows since the 17th. It really needs to break 5.25 to show some better strength. Interesting that we touched the top end of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap, and then bounced hard off it.
Too early to say if that test of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap is all we'll see, and the gap will now remain unfilled.... as IMO we're only one bad day away in the market & IBB from a retest and filling the gap.
But, its certainly possible that the retest of the gap is what was needed, and with news pending (Lupus, SPA, SMD start) the uptrend continues.
GL all.
Last gap now filled. |
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Post by iamaverb on Sept 11, 2015 15:17:31 GMT
OCAT looking great today. IMO, the bolded above is the reason for this recent uptrend.
With news pending, filling that higher gap from $5.88 - $6.23 is looking more likely.
Need the buying (and perhaps some short covering) to continue.
Note: There is a small lower gap that formed over the past few days from $4.23 - $4.26. I'm keeping an eye on it, but not concerned with it filling at the moment.
Well, I was wrong again with this stock! |
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 11, 2015 15:22:00 GMT
Interesting that we touched the top end of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap, and then bounced hard off it.
Too early to say if that test of the $4.23 - $4.26 gap is all we'll see, and the gap will now remain unfilled.... as IMO we're only one bad day away in the market & IBB from a retest and filling the gap.
But, its certainly possible that the retest of the gap is what was needed, and with news pending (Lupus, SPA, SMD start) the uptrend continues.
GL all.
Last gap now filled. Added at $4.23.
Still some downside risk, as we didn't see a huge surge higher on the start of Phase 2, and some folks may be selling with that news now passed. Per my previous posts, I wasn't expecting a monster move higher on the news of starting Phase 2, but did think we'd be able to move over $5. We did hit the high $4.90s (not bad), but that may be the extent of the move for now.
Why did I add? While it has pulled back, its still consolidating over $4, and the 3-month chart still looks decent. News is likely next week or worst case by the end of September: Lupus data, SPA update, SMD start.
I'll lighten up after those news items regardless of where the pps is at, as I believe the major pps mover with OCAT will be Phase 2 results mid next year.
GL all
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Post by iamwhatiam on Sept 11, 2015 16:46:40 GMT
Added at $4.23.
Still some downside risk, as we didn't see a huge surge higher on the start of Phase 2, and some folks may be selling with that news now passed. Per my previous posts, I wasn't expecting a monster move higher on the news of starting Phase 2, but did think we'd be able to move over $5. We did hit the high $4.90s (not bad), but that may be the extent of the move for now.
Why did I add? While it has pulled back, its still consolidating over $4, and the 3-month chart still looks decent. News is likely next week or worst case by the end of September: Lupus data, SPA update, SMD start.
I'll lighten up after those news items regardless of where the pps is at, as I believe the major pps mover with OCAT will be Phase 2 results mid next year.
GL all
As always thanks for sharing your thoughts jckrdu.
By stating that you'll likely sell after Lupus data, SMD and SPA updates, I assume you aren't looking for much upward price pressure with the JV that's supposed to occur before the end of the year. Is that because of the stated modesty of the of the deal? Or will you just be chasing better opportunity elsewhere?
Thanks again.
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 11, 2015 17:44:36 GMT
Added at $4.23.
Still some downside risk, as we didn't see a huge surge higher on the start of Phase 2, and some folks may be selling with that news now passed. Per my previous posts, I wasn't expecting a monster move higher on the news of starting Phase 2, but did think we'd be able to move over $5. We did hit the high $4.90s (not bad), but that may be the extent of the move for now.
Why did I add? While it has pulled back, its still consolidating over $4, and the 3-month chart still looks decent. News is likely next week or worst case by the end of September: Lupus data, SPA update, SMD start.
I'll lighten up after those news items regardless of where the pps is at, as I believe the major pps mover with OCAT will be Phase 2 results mid next year.
GL all
As always thanks for sharing your thoughts jckrdu.
By stating that you'll likely sell after Lupus data, SMD and SPA updates, I assume you aren't looking for much upward price pressure with the JV that's supposed to occur before the end of the year. Is that because of the stated modesty of the of the deal? Or will you just be chasing better opportunity elsewhere?
Thanks again.
Iam - A little bit of both; better opportunities elsewhere and no major expectations (from me anyway) on a major pps move on the remaining news items (after Lupus data, SPA update, SMD) which I listed below.
Non-core JV - PW has already stated that its being contemplated with a small company. That comment points to a pre-clinical research type deal with little or no upfront cash exchanging hands, as a "small company" isn't going to be in a position to shell out a large upfront cash payment.... with both companies putting their time in resources into the effort of moving the partnered indication forward. If that's the case, we could see an initial pop on the news, but there's also downside risk shortly after the announcement... as IMO many are still expecting something more substantial, and when it doesn't happen you could have many selling the news. Redefinition Wildcard News - I agree this news could move the needle, but I'm not going to tie up a large position in OCAT betting on this news. Photoreceptor Data Sometime in Q4 - While this will be good to see, PW's latest guidance was that the IND is still 2 years away. I don't think the recent NIH funding and PWs statement that they hope to generate INDs as expeditiously as possible, does anything to change the 2 year timeframe in any significant way.
IMO, money will start to flow back into OCAT when they announce that Dry AMD cohort-1 has completed enrollment sometime in Q1 2016. That's when I plan to start accumulating a larger position. I'll likely maintain a smaller core position until then, but expect OCAT to stay in the $4-$6ish range ($170M-$250M market cap) until we see the enrollment completion PR when the pps run-up to data should start.
For now, I'm holding and just added a bit as the lower gap just closed, and Lupus data, SPA update, and SMD start all should be coming over the next 1-3 weeks. Lupus data in particular has the potential to move the needle if the language in the PR states that they're in "advanced partnering discussions" with 1 or more companies. I have no reason to believe OCAT is that far along with partnering Lupus, but its a possibility as Jooste has been onboard for awhile now and I'm sure he's been working on getting a deal done. Because I expect those 3 updates soon, I'm going to hang-in 1-3 weeks longer.
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Post by vzveteran on Sept 11, 2015 18:41:35 GMT
Should redefinition come to pass, I would assume options, that were heretofore unavailable to us, will open up. That could change the order of things to come imo.
GR always talked about quasi governmental partnerships. A DOD platelets grant maybe?
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Post by iamwhatiam on Sept 11, 2015 19:26:18 GMT
As always thanks for sharing your thoughts jckrdu.
By stating that you'll likely sell after Lupus data, SMD and SPA updates, I assume you aren't looking for much upward price pressure with the JV that's supposed to occur before the end of the year. Is that because of the stated modesty of the of the deal? Or will you just be chasing better opportunity elsewhere?
Thanks again.
Iam - A little bit of both; better opportunities elsewhere and no major expectations (from me anyway) on a major pps move on the remaining news items (after Lupus data, SPA update, SMD) which I listed below.
Non-core JV - PW has already stated that its being contemplated with a small company. That comment points to a pre-clinical research type deal with little or no upfront cash exchanging hands, as a "small company" isn't going to be in a position to shell out a large upfront cash payment.... with both companies putting their time in resources into the effort of moving the partnered indication forward. If that's the case, we could see an initial pop on the news, but there's also downside risk shortly after the announcement... as IMO many are still expecting something more substantial, and when it doesn't happen you could have many selling the news. Redefinition Wildcard News - I agree this news could move the needle, but I'm not going to tie up a large position in OCAT betting on this news. Photoreceptor Data Sometime in Q4 - While this will be good to see, PW's latest guidance was that the IND is still 2 years away. I don't think the recent NIH funding and PWs statement that they hope to generate INDs as expeditiously as possible, does anything to change the 2 year timeframe in any significant way.
IMO, money will start to flow back into OCAT when they announce that Dry AMD cohort-1 has completed enrollment sometime in Q1 2016. That's when I plan to start accumulating a larger position. I'll likely maintain a smaller core position until then, but expect OCAT to stay in the $4-$6ish range ($170M-$250M market cap) until we see the enrollment completion PR when the pps run-up to data should start.
For now, I'm holding and just added a bit as the lower gap just closed, and Lupus data, SPA update, and SMD start all should be coming over the next 1-3 weeks. Lupus data in particular has the potential to move the needle if the language in the PR states that they're in "advanced partnering discussions" with 1 or more companies. I have no reason to believe OCAT is that far along with partnering Lupus, but its a possibility as Jooste has been onboard for awhile now and I'm sure he's been working on getting a deal done. Because I expect those 3 updates soon, I'm going to hang-in 1-3 weeks longer.
I hear you. Hard for me be nimble enough to trust myself getting in and out. But, I sure wish I had done it more in the past. I wish you all the best with your strategy. I may also try to lighten my load if we hit that $250 mil market cap. I say that, and I always get excited when we start climbing, thinking surely this time it will hold its gains. What is that definition of insanity again? |
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 12, 2015 13:50:29 GMT
Iam - A little bit of both; better opportunities elsewhere and no major expectations (from me anyway) on a major pps move on the remaining news items (after Lupus data, SPA update, SMD) which I listed below.
Non-core JV - PW has already stated that its being contemplated with a small company. That comment points to a pre-clinical research type deal with little or no upfront cash exchanging hands, as a "small company" isn't going to be in a position to shell out a large upfront cash payment.... with both companies putting their time in resources into the effort of moving the partnered indication forward. If that's the case, we could see an initial pop on the news, but there's also downside risk shortly after the announcement... as IMO many are still expecting something more substantial, and when it doesn't happen you could have many selling the news. Redefinition Wildcard News - I agree this news could move the needle, but I'm not going to tie up a large position in OCAT betting on this news. Photoreceptor Data Sometime in Q4 - While this will be good to see, PW's latest guidance was that the IND is still 2 years away. I don't think the recent NIH funding and PWs statement that they hope to generate INDs as expeditiously as possible, does anything to change the 2 year timeframe in any significant way.
IMO, money will start to flow back into OCAT when they announce that Dry AMD cohort-1 has completed enrollment sometime in Q1 2016. That's when I plan to start accumulating a larger position. I'll likely maintain a smaller core position until then, but expect OCAT to stay in the $4-$6ish range ($170M-$250M market cap) until we see the enrollment completion PR when the pps run-up to data should start.
For now, I'm holding and just added a bit as the lower gap just closed, and Lupus data, SPA update, and SMD start all should be coming over the next 1-3 weeks. Lupus data in particular has the potential to move the needle if the language in the PR states that they're in "advanced partnering discussions" with 1 or more companies. I have no reason to believe OCAT is that far along with partnering Lupus, but its a possibility as Jooste has been onboard for awhile now and I'm sure he's been working on getting a deal done. Because I expect those 3 updates soon, I'm going to hang-in 1-3 weeks longer.
I hear you. Hard for me be nimble enough to trust myself getting in and out. But, I sure wish I had done it more in the past. I wish you all the best with your strategy. I may also try to lighten my load if we hit that $250 mil market cap. I say that, and I always get excited when we start climbing, thinking surely this time it will hold its gains. What is that definition of insanity again? Gl to you as well Iam. I think one key is to follow a handful of other stocks so you have a reason to sell and take profits... because there's always another promising stock that has been beat down and is on the verge of recovering and/or releasing major news.
In terms on when OCAT is most likely to make a huge move (i.e. double or triple) take a look at the 5 year chart. Since mid-2012 (3 years ago) its traded in the $5 - $8 range. With Phase 2 data not coming until mid-2016 and a core partnership not coming until after that data is out, I don't see OCAT trading out of that range. In fact, per my prior post, I'll be surprised if it trades (and holds) much higher than $6 ($250M market cap) until we get closer to the Phase 2 data release.
Of course a move from $4ish to $6ish is a 50% move, which is why I'm not in a hurry to sell at the moment with additional news coming shortly, IMO.
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Post by tunis on Sept 14, 2015 19:29:28 GMT
For those that care volume has been light so far. Dark Pools are buying and Algo's have been selling.
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Post by perrinmosca on Sept 15, 2015 13:58:21 GMT
Although its nice to have an up day, there is another gap now! They always seem to fill.....
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Post by jckrdu on Sept 15, 2015 14:09:52 GMT
Although its nice to have an up day, there is another gap now! They always seem to fill..... Agree, as every prior gap with ACTC/OCAT has closed.
But, we don't know when the gap will close (if this latest one does close).
Pending news (Lupus data, SPA, SMD start) could take it higher first before a retrace a little farther down the road. That said, I did sell a small amount this morning when it crossed $4.50 and was up over 7% with that new gap formed at the open. Will add more if the gap fills before news.
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